"At a purely formal level, one could call probability theory the study of measure spaces with total measure one, but that would be like calling number theory the study of strings of digits which terminate." (Terence Tao, "Topics in Random Matrix Theory", 2012)
"Descriptive statistics are built on the assumption that we can use a single value to characterize a single property for a single universe. […] Probability theory is focused on what happens to samples drawn from a known universe. If the data happen to come from different sources, then there are multiple universes with different probability models. If you cannot answer the homogeneity question, then you will not know if you have one probability model or many. [...] Statistical inference assumes that you have a sample that is known to have come from one universe." (Donald J Wheeler, "Myths About Data Analysis", International Lean & Six Sigma Conference, 2012)
"The four questions of data analysis are the questions of description, probability, inference, and homogeneity. [...] Descriptive statistics are built on the assumption that we can use a single value to characterize a single property for a single universe. […] Probability theory is focused on what happens to samples drawn from a known universe. If the data happen to come from different sources, then there are multiple universes with different probability models. [...] Statistical inference assumes that you have a sample that is known to have come from one universe." (Donald J Wheeler," Myths About Data Analysis", International Lean & Six Sigma Conference, 2012)
"Probability theory provides the best answer only when the rules of the game are certain, when all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known or can be calculated. [...] In the real game, probability theory is not enough. Good intuitions are needed, which can be more challenging than calculations. One way to reduce uncertainty is to rely on rules of thumb." (Gerd Gigerenzer, "Risk Savvy: How to make good decisions", 2014)
"When statisticians, trained in math and probability theory, try to assess likely outcomes, they demand a plethora of data points. Even then, they recognize that unless it’s a very simple and controlled action such as flipping a coin, unforeseen variables can exert significant influence." (Zachary Karabell, "The Leading Indicators: A short history of the numbers that rule our world", 2014)
"Logic provides a set of formal rules for determining what propositions are implied to be true or false given the assumption that some other set of propositions is true or false. Probability theory provides a set of formal rules for determining the likelihood of a proposition being true given the likelihood of other propositions." (Ian Goodfellow et al, "Deep Learning", 2015)
"Probability theory is not the only tool for rationality. In situations of uncertainty, as opposed to risk, simple heuristics can lead to more accurate judgments, in addition to being faster and more frugal. Under uncertainty, optimal solutions do not exist (except in hindsight) and, by definition, cannot be calculated. Thus, it is illusory to model the mind as a general optimizer, Bayesian or otherwise. Rather, the goal is to achieve satisficing solutions, such as meeting an aspiration level or coming out ahead of a competitor." (Gerd Gigerenzer et al, "Simply Rational: Decision Making in the Real World", 2015)
"New information is constantly flowing in, and your brain is constantly integrating it into this statistical distribution that creates your next perception (so in this sense 'reality' is just the product of your brain’s ever-evolving database of consequence). As such, your perception is subject to a statistical phenomenon known in probability theory as kurtosis. Kurtosis in essence means that things tend to become increasingly steep in their distribution [...] that is, skewed in one direction. This applies to ways of seeing everything from current events to ourselves as we lean 'skewedly' toward one interpretation, positive or negative. Things that are highly kurtotic, or skewed, are hard to shift away from. This is another way of saying that seeing differently isn’t just conceptually difficult - it’s statistically difficult." (Beau Lotto, "Deviate: The Science of Seeing Differently", 2017)
"Bootstrapping provides an intuitive, computer-intensive way of assessing the uncertainty in our estimates, without making strong assumptions and without using probability theory. But the technique is not feasible when it comes to, say, working out the margins of error on unemployment surveys of 100,000 people. Although bootstrapping is a simple, brilliant and extraordinarily effective idea, it is just too clumsy to bootstrap such large quantities of data, especially when a convenient theory exists that can generate formulae for the width of uncertainty intervals." (David Spiegelhalter, "The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data", 2019)
"But [bootstrap-based] simulations are clumsy and time-consuming, especially with large data sets, and in more complex circumstances it is not straightforward to work out what should be simulated. In contrast, formulae derived from probability theory provide both insight and convenience, and always lead to the same answer since they don’t depend on a particular simulation. But the flip side is that this theory relies on assumptions, and we should be careful not to be deluded by the impressive algebra into accepting unjustified conclusions." (David Spiegelhalter, "The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data", 2019)