🪸On Systems Thinking: On Equilibrium (From Fiction to Science-Fiction)

"From a caprice of nature, not from the ignorance of man. Not a mistake has been made in the working. But we cannot prevent equilibrium from producing its effects. We may brave human laws, but we cannot resist natural ones." (Jules Verne, "Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea", 1870)

"Throughout recorded time, and probably since the end of the Neolithic Age, there have been three kinds of people in the world, the High, the Middle, and the Low. They have been subdivided in many ways, they have borne countless different names, and their relative numbers, as well as their attitude toward one another, have varied from age to age; but the essential structure of society has never altered. Even after enormous upheavals and seemingly irrevocable changes, the same pattern has always reasserted itself, just as a gyroscope will always return to equilibrium, however far it is pushed one way or the other." (George Orwell, "1984", 1949)

"But you must not change one thing, one pebble, one grain of sand, until you know what good and evil will follow on that act. The world is in balance, in Equilibrium. […] It is dangerous, that power. [...] It must follow knowledge, and serve need." (Ursula K Le Guin, "A Wizard of Earthsea", 1968)

"Living systems are never in equilibrium. They are inherently unstable. They may seem stable, but they’re not. Everything is moving and changing. In a sense, everything is on the edge of collapse. (Michael Crichton, "Jurassic Park", 1990)

"Maybe those nihilist philosophers are right; maybe this is all we can expect of the universe, a relentless crushing of life and spirit, because the equilibrium state of the cosmos is death..." (Arthur C Clarke, "The Light of Other Days", 2000)

"The universe is full of energy, but much of it is at equilibrium. At equilibrium no energy can flow, and therefore it cannot be used for work, any more than the level waters of a pond can be used to drive a water-wheel. It is on the flow of energy out of equilibrium - the small fraction of 'useful' energy, 'exergy' - that life depends." (Arthur C Clarke, "Firstborn", 2007)

On Nash Equilibrium

"The notion of an equilibrium point is the basic ingredient of our theory. This notion yields a generalization of the concept of the solution of a two-person zero-sum game. It turns out that the set of equilibrium points of a two-person zero-sum game is simply the set of all pairs of opposing 'good strategies'." (John F Nash, "Non-Cooperative Games", 1950)

"The information obtained by discovering dominances for one player may be of relevance to the others, insofar as the elimination of classes of mixed strategies as possible components of an equilibrium point is concerned. For the t's whose components are all undominated are all that need be considered and thus eliminating some of the strategies of one player may make possible the elimination of a new class of strategies for another player." (John F Nash, "Two-Person Cooperative Games", 1953)

"That strategic rivalry in a long-term relationship may differ from that of a one-shot game is by now quite a familiar idea. Repeated play allows players to respond to each other’s actions, and so each player must consider the reactions of his opponents in making his decision. The fear of retaliation may thus lead to outcomes that otherwise would not occur. The most dramatic expression of this phenomenon is the celebrated "Folk Theorem." An outcome that Pareto dominates the minimax point is called individually rational. The Folk Theorem asserts that any individually rational outcome can arise as a Nash equilibrium in infinitely repeated games with sufficiently little discounting." (Drew Fudenberg & Eric Maskin, "The folk theorem in repeated games with discounting or with incomplete information", Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1986)

"Inducement correspondences provide a particularly easy way to explore the Nash equilibrium. Because payoffs are strictly ordered there will always be a single best response in a given inducement correspondence. The inducement correspondence can also be used to describe a number of other solution concepts, including maxi-min and solutions based on dominance." (David Robinson & David Goforth, "The Topology of the 2×2 Games: A New Periodic Table", 2005)

"The Nash equilibrium is often rationalized using a story about how people think and how their behaviour is related to their thoughts. Economists generally assume that, from a set of alternatives, a player will actively choose the one he likes best. This is the assumption of economic rationality, one of the core assumptions of standard game theory. Rationality alone will not predict behaviour in a game, but it leads us to single out the member of any inducement correspondence that yields the greatest payoff for the player that is making the choice. The resulting behaviour is sometimes described as 'myopic' because it fails to take into account how other players might respond to a given choice." (David Robinson & David Goforth, "The Topology of the 2×2 Games: A New Periodic Table", 2005)

"More precisely, suppose that Player 1 chooses a strategy S and Player 2 chooses a strategy T . We say that this pair of strategies (S,T ) is a Nash equilibrium if S is a best response to T , and T is a best response to S. This concept is not one that can be derived purely from rationality on the part of the players; instead, it is an equilibrium concept. The idea is that if the players choose strategies that are best responses to each other, then no player has an incentive to deviate to an alternative strategy – the system is in a kind of equilibrium state, with no force pushing it toward a different outcome." (David Easley & Jon Kleinberg, "Networks, Crowds, and Markets: Reasoning about a Highly Connected World", 2010)

"To understand the idea of Nash equilibrium, we should first ask why a pair of strategies that are not best responses to each other would not constitute an equilibrium. The answer is that the players cannot both believe that these strategies would actually be used in the game, since they know that at least one player would have an incentive to deviate to another strategy. So a Nash equilibrium can be thought of as an equilibrium in beliefs. If each player believes that the other player will actually play a strategy that is part of a Nash equilibrium, then she has an incentive to play her part of the Nash equilibrium." (David Easley & Jon Kleinberg, "Networks, Crowds, and Markets: Reasoning about a Highly Connected World", 2010)

🪸On Systems Thinking: On Equilibrium (2010-2019)

"Cybernetics is the art of creating equilibrium in a world of possibilities and constraints. This is not just a romantic description, it portrays the new way of thinking quite accurately. Cybernetics differs from the traditional scientific procedure, because it does not try to explain phenomena by searching for their causes, but rather by specifying the constraints that determine the direction of their development." (Ernst von Glasersfeld, "Partial Memories: Sketches from an Improbable Life", 2010)

"In dynamical systems, a bifurcation occurs when a small smooth change made to the parameter values (the bifurcation parameters) of a system causes a sudden 'qualitative' or topological change in its behaviour. Generally, at a bifurcation, the local stability properties of equilibria, periodic orbits or other invariant sets changes." (Gregory Faye, "An introduction to bifurcation theory",  2011)

"Social scientists use the term 'equilibrium' to describe balance between opposing forces, say, supply and demand, so small disturbances or deviations in one direction, like those of a pendulum, would be countered with an adjustment in the opposite direction that would bring things back to stability." (Nassim N Taleb, "Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder", 2012)

"An equilibrium is defined to be stable if all sufficiently small disturbances away from it damp out in time. Thus stable equilibria are represented geometrically by stable fixed points. Conversely, unstable equilibria, in which disturbances grow in time, are represented by unstable fixed points." (Steven H Strogatz, "Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: With Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering", 2015)

"Change is real; the unchanging is an illusion. Classical science focused on systems that were in equilibrium whereas modern science also looks at states that may be far from equilibrium. Equilibrium situations can give you the feeling that things are unchanging but this is always only a temporary condition. Equilibriums beak down and when they do, when the system is far from equilibrium, then the dynamism of the system is most visible. In such situations one is studying change directly." (William Byers, "Deep Thinking: What Mathematics Can Teach Us About the Mind", 2015)

"[…] chaos and fractals are part of an even grander subject known as dynamics. This is the subject that deals with change, with systems that evolve in time. Whether the system in question settles down to equilibrium, keeps repeating in cycles, or does something more complicated, it is dynamics that we use to analyze the behavior." (Steven H Strogatz, "Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: With Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering", 2015)

"To remedy chaotic situations requires a chaotic approach, one that is non-linear, constantly morphing, and continually sharpening its competitive edge with recurring feedback loops that build upon past experiences and lessons learned. Improvement cannot be sustained without reflection. Chaos arises from myriad sources that stem from two origins: internal chaos rising within you, and external chaos being imposed upon you by the environment. The result of this push/pull effect is the disequilibrium [...]." (Jeff Boss, "Navigating Chaos: How to Find Certainty in Uncertain Situations", 2015)

On Synergy II

"The constructive process inheres in all forms of synergy, and the cooperation of antithetical forces in nature always results in making, that is, in creating something that did not exist before. But in the organic world this character of structure becomes the leading feature, and we have synthetic products consisting of tissues and organs serving definite purposes, which we call functions." (Lester F Ward, "Pure Sociology", 1903)

"[...] there is a universal principle, operating in every department of nature and at every stage of evolution, which is conservative, creative and constructive. [...] I have at last fixed upon the word synergy, as the term best adapted to express its twofold character of ‘energy’ and ‘mutuality’ or the systematic and organic ‘working together’ of the antithetical forces of nature. [...] Synergy is a synthesis of work, or synthetic work, and this is what is everywhere taking place. It may be said to begin with the primary atomic collision in which mass, motion, time, and space are involved, and to find its simplest expression in the formula for force, which implies a plurality of elements, and signifies an interaction of these elements." (Lester F Ward, "Pure Sociology", 1903)

"This compromise among the contending forces of nature was effected through organization and the formation of chemical systems, which are so many reservoirs of power, this power being represented by what we call the properties of matter. These systems store up energy and expend it in work, but the work is always a collaboration or cooperation of all the competing forces involved. It is synergy." (Lester F Ward, "Pure Sociology", 1903)

"Social equilibration under the principle of social synergy, while it involves a perpetual and vigorous struggle among the antagonistic social forces, still works out social structures and conserves them, and these structures perform their prescribed functions. Upon the perfection of these structures and the consequent success with which they perform their functions depends the degree of social efficiency. In the organic world the struggle has the appearance of a struggle for existence. The weaker species go to the wall and the stronger persist. There is a constant elimination of the defective and survival of the fittest. On the social plane it is the same, and weak races succumb in the struggle while strong races persist. But in both cases it is the best structures that survive." (James Q Dealey & Lester F Ward, "A Text-book of Sociology", 1905)

"Social structures are the products of social synergy, i.e., of the interaction of different social forces, all of which, in and of themselves, are destructive, but whose combined effect, mutually checking, constraining, and equilibrating one another, is to produce structures. The entire drift is toward economy, conservatism, and the prevention of waste. Social structures are mechanisms for the production of results, and the results cannot be secured without them. They are reservoirs of power." (James Q Dealey & Lester F Ward, "A Text-book of Sociology", 1905)

"The true nature of the universal principle of synergy pervading all nature and creating all the different kinds of structure that we observe to exist, must now be made clearer. Primarily and essentially it is a process of equilibration, i.e., the several forces are first brought into a state of partial equilibrium. It begins in collision, conflict, antagonism, and opposition, and then we have the milder phases of antithesis, competition, and interaction, passing next into a modus vivendi, or compromise, and ending in collaboration and cooperation." (James Q Dealey & Lester F Ward, "A Text-book of Sociology", 1905)

"Synergy is the principle that explains all organization and creates all structures. The products of cosmic synergy are found in all fields of phenomena. Celestial structures are worlds and world systems; chemical structures are atoms, molecules, and substances; biotic structures are protoplasm, cells, tissues, organs, and organisms. There are also psychic structures - feelings, emotions, passions, volitions, perceptions, cognitions, memory, imagination, reason, thought, and all the acts of consciousness. And then there are social structures […]. These are the products of the social forces acting under the principle of social synergy." (James Q Dealey & Lester F Ward, "A Text-book of Sociology", 1905)

"[...] synergy is the consequence of the energy expended in creating order. It is locked up in the viable system created, be it an organism or a social system. It is at the level of the system. It is not discernible at the level of the system. It is not discernible at the level of the system’s components. Whenever the system is dismembered to examine its components, this binding energy dissipates." (J-C Spender, "Organizational Knowledge, Collective Practice and Penrose Rents", 1999)

[synergy:] "Measure describing how one agent or system increases the satisfaction of other agents or systems." (Carlos Gershenson, "Design and Control of Self-organizing Systems", 2007)

"To develop a Control, the designer should find aspect systems, subsystems, or constraints that will prevent the negative interferences between elements (friction) and promote positive interferences (synergy). In other words, the designer should search for ways of minimizing frictions that will result in maximization of the global satisfaction" (Carlos Gershenson, "Design and Control of Self-organizing Systems", 2007)

On Systems Thinking: On Equilibrium (1900-1919)

"When we study the structure of the atom, we shall arrive at the conclusion that it is an immense reservoir of energy solely constituted by a system of imponderable elements maintained in equilibrium by the rotations, attractions and repulsions of its component parts." (Gustave Le Bon, "The Evolution of Matter", 1907)

"All thinking is of disturbance, dynamical, a state of unrest tending towards equilibrium. It is all a mode of classifying and of criticising with a view of knowing whether it gives us, or is likely to give us, pleasure or no." (Samuel Butler, "Thinking - The Note-Books of Samuel Butler", 1912)

"The network of ideas remains and forms as it were a moving cobweb in which repose wriggles and tosses, incapable of finding a stable equilibrium." (Jean H Fabre, "The Life of the Fly", 1913)

"We rise from the conception of form to an understanding of the forces which gave rise to it [...] in the representation of form we see a diagram of forces in equilibrium, and in the comparison of kindred forms we discern the magnitude and the direction of the forces which have sufficed to convert the one form into the other." (D'Arcy Wentworth Thompson, "On Growth and Form" Vol. 2, 1917)

"A society in stable equilibrium is - by definition - one that has no history and wants no historians." (Henry Adams, "The Degradation of the Democratic Dogma", 1919)

"All biologic phenomena act to adjust: there are no biologic actions other than adjustments. Adjustment is another name for Equilibrium. Equilibrium is the Universal, or that which has nothing external to derange it." (Charles Fort, The Book of the Damned, 1919)

🪸On Systems Thinking: On Equilibrium (-1799)

"Equal weights at equal distances are in equilibrium and equal weights at unequal distances are not in equilibrium but incline towards the weight which is at the greater distance." (Archimedes, "On the Equilibrium of Planes" Vol. I, 3rd century BC)

"Two magnitudes whether commensurable or incommensurable, balance at distances reciprocally proportional to the magnitudes." (Archimedes, "On the Equilibrium of Planes" Vol. I, 3rd century BC)

"Inequality is the cause of all local movements. There is no rest without equality." (Leonardo da Vinci, Codex Atlanticus, 1478)

"There must be a double method for solving mechanical problems: one is the direct method founded on the laws of equilibrium or of motion; but the other one is by knowing which formula must provide a maximum or a minimum. The former way proceeds by efficient causes: both ways lead to the same solution, and it is such a harmony which convinces us of the truth of the solution, even if each method has to be separately founded on indubitable principles. But is often very difficult to discover the formula which must be a maximum or minimum, and by which the quantity of action is represented.” (Leonhard Euler, “Specimen de usu observationum in mathesi pura", Novi Commentarii academiae scientiarum Petropolitanae 6, 1756/57)

"Statics is the science of the equilibrium of forces. In general, force or power is the cause, whatever it may be, which induces or tends to impart motion to the body to which it is applied. The force or power must be measured by the quantity of motion produced or to be produced. In the state of equilibrium, the force has no apparent action. It produces only a tendency for motion in the body it is applied to. But it must be measured by the effect it would produce if it were not impeded. By taking any force or its effect as unity, the relation of every other force is only a ratio, a mathematical quantity, which can be represented by some numbers or lines. It is in this fashion that forces must be treated in mechanics." (Joseph-Louis de Lagrange, "Mechanique Analytique", 1788)

On Randomness XIX (Chaos II)

"The chaos theory will require scientists in all fields to, develop sophisticated mathematical skills, so that they will be able to better recognize the meanings of results. Mathematics has expanded the field of fractals to help describe and explain the shapeless, asymmetrical find randomness of the natural environment." (Theoni Pappas, "More Joy of Mathematics: Exploring mathematical insights & concepts", 1991)

"Chaos demonstrates that deterministic causes can have random effects […] There's a similar surprise regarding symmetry: symmetric causes can have asymmetric effects. […] This paradox, that symmetry can get lost between cause and effect, is called symmetry-breaking. […] From the smallest scales to the largest, many of nature's patterns are a result of broken symmetry; […]" (Ian Stewart & Martin Golubitsky, "Fearful Symmetry: Is God a Geometer?", 1992)

"Systems, acting dynamically, produce (and incidentally, reproduce) their own boundaries, as structures which are complementary (necessarily so) to their motion and dynamics. They are liable, for all that, to instabilities chaos, as commonly interpreted of chaotic form, where nowadays, is remote from the random. Chaos is a peculiar situation in which the trajectories of a system, taken in the traditional sense, fail to converge as they approach their limit cycles or 'attractors' or 'equilibria'. Instead, they diverge, due to an increase, of indefinite magnitude, in amplification or gain." (Gordon Pask, "Different Kinds of Cybernetics", 1992)

"Often, we use the word random loosely to describe something that is disordered, irregular, patternless, or unpredictable. We link it with chance, probability, luck, and coincidence. However, when we examine what we mean by random in various contexts, ambiguities and uncertainties inevitably arise. Tackling the subtleties of randomness allows us to go to the root of what we can understand of the universe we inhabit and helps us to define the limits of what we can know with certainty." (Ivars Peterson, "The Jungles of Randomness: A Mathematical Safari", 1998)

"Randomness, chaos, uncertainty, and chance are all a part of our lives. They reside at the ill-defined boundaries between what we know, what we can know, and what is beyond our knowing. They make life interesting." (Ivars Peterson, "The Jungles of Randomness: A Mathematical Safari", 1998)

"There are only patterns, patterns on top of patterns, patterns that affect other patterns. Patterns hidden by patterns. Patterns within patterns. If you watch close, history does nothing but repeat itself. What we call chaos is just patterns we haven't recognized. What we call random is just patterns we can't decipher. what we can't understand we call nonsense. What we can't read we call gibberish. There is no free will. There are no variables." (Chuck Palahniuk, "Survivor", 1999)

"Heat is the energy of random chaotic motion, and entropy is the amount of hidden microscopic information." (Leonard Susskind, "The Black Hole War", 2008)

"Chaos is impatient. It's random. And above all it's selfish. It tears down everything just for the sake of change, feeding on itself in constant hunger. But Chaos can also be appealing. It tempts you to believe that nothing matters except what you want." (Rick Riordan, "The Throne of Fire", 2011)

"A system in which a few things interacting produce tremendously divergent behavior; deterministic chaos; it looks random but its not." (Chris Langton)

On Bifurcations I

"It is not enough to know the critical stress, that is, the quantitative breaking point of a complex design; one should also know as much as possible of the qualitative geometry of its failure modes, because what will happen beyond the critical stress level can be very different from one case to the next, depending on just which path the buckling takes. And here catastrophe theory, joined with bifurcation theory, can be very helpful by indicating how new failure modes appear." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"The study of changes in the qualitative structure of the flow of a differential equation as parameters are varied is called bifurcation theory. At a given parameter value, a differential equation is said to have stable orbit structure if the qualitative structure of the flow does not change for sufficiently small variations of the parameter. A parameter value for which the flow does not have stable orbit structure is called a bifurcation value, and the equation is said to be at a bifurcation point." (Jack K Hale & Hüseyin Kocak, "Dynamics and Bifurcations", 1991)

"Fundamental to catastrophe theory is the idea of a bifurcation. A bifurcation is an event that occurs in the evolution of a dynamic system in which the characteristic behavior of the system is transformed. This occurs when an attractor in the system changes in response to change in the value of a parameter. A catastrophe is one type of bifurcation. The broader framework within which catastrophes are located is called dynamical bifurcation theory." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"The existence of equilibria or steady periodic solutions is not sufficient to determine if a system will actually behave that way. The stability of these solutions must also be checked. As parameters are changed, a stable motion can become unstable and new solutions may appear. The study of the changes in the dynamic behavior of systems as parameters are varied is the subject of bifurcation theory. Values of the parameters at which the qualitative or topological nature of the motion changes are known as critical or bifurcation values." (Francis C Moona, "Nonlinear Dynamics", 2003)

"In parametrized dynamical systems a bifurcation occurs when a qualitative change is invoked by a change of parameters. In models such a qualitative change corresponds to transition between dynamical regimes. In the generic theory a finite list of cases is obtained, containing elements like ‘saddle-node’, ‘period doubling’, ‘Hopf bifurcation’ and many others." (Henk W Broer & Heinz Hanssmann, "Hamiltonian Perturbation Theory (and Transition to Chaos)", 2009)

"In dynamical systems, a bifurcation occurs when a small smooth change made to the parameter values (the bifurcation parameters) of a system causes a sudden 'qualitative' or topological change in its behaviour. Generally, at a bifurcation, the local stability properties of equilibria, periodic orbits or other invariant sets changes." (Gregory Faye, "An introduction to bifurcation theory",  2011)

"Catastrophe theory can be thought of as a link between classical analysis, dynamical systems, differential topology (including singularity theory), modern bifurcation theory and the theory of complex systems." (Werner Sanns, "Catastrophe Theory" [Mathematics of Complexity and Dynamical Systems, 2012])

"Roughly spoken, bifurcation theory describes the way in which dynamical system changes due to a small perturbation of the system-parameters. A qualitative change in the phase space of the dynamical system occurs at a bifurcation point, that means that the system is structural unstable against a small perturbation in the parameter space and the dynamic structure of the system has changed due to this slight variation in the parameter space." (Holger I Meinhardt, "Cooperative Decision Making in Common Pool Situations", 2012)

"Bifurcation theory is the mathematical study of changes in the qualitative or topological structure of a given family, such as the integral curves of a family of vector fields, and the solutions of a family of differential equations. Most commonly applied to the mathematical study of dynamical systems, a bifurcation occurs when a small smooth change made to the parameter values (the bifurcation parameters) of a system causes a sudden “qualitative” or topological change in its behavior. Bifurcations can occur in both continuous systems (described by ODEs, DDEs, or PDEs) and discrete systems (described by maps)." (Tianshou Zhou, "Bifurcation", 2013)

"The core of bifurcation theory of nonlinear system inevitably falls back to the dynamic analysis of linear ones. Because of that, the fundamental question one may ask is if there exist a linearized DAE system with the same qualitative behavior around fixed points of its nonlinear counterpart." (Ataíde S A.Netoa et al, "Nonlinear dynamic analysis of chemical engineering processes described by differential-algebraic equations systems", 2019)

📡On Technology III

"Technology means the systematic application of scientific or other organized knowledge to practical tasks." (John K Galbraith, "The New Industrial State", 1967)

"Networks constitute the new social morphology of our societies, and the diffusion of networking logic substantially modifies the operation and outcomes in processes of production, experience, power, and culture. While the networking form of social organization has existed in other times and spaces, the new information technology paradigm provides the material basis for its pervasive expansion throughout the entire social structure." (Manuel Castells, "The Rise of the Network Society", 1996)

"Beauty is more important in computing than anywhere else in technology because software is so complicated. Beauty is the ultimate defense against complexity." (David Gelernter, "Machine Beauty: Elegance And The Heart Of Technolog", 1998)

"Modelling techniques on powerful computers allow us to simulate the behaviour of complex systems without having to understand them.  We can do with technology what we cannot do with science.  […] The rise of powerful technology is not an unconditional blessing.  We have  to deal with what we do not understand, and that demands new  ways of thinking." (Paul Cilliers,"Complexity and Postmodernism: Understanding Complex Systems", 1998)

"A primary reason that evolution - of life-forms or technology - speeds up is that it builds on its own increasing order." (Ray Kurzweil, "The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence", 1999) 

"As systems became more varied and more complex, we find that no single methodology suffices to deal with them. This is particularly true of what may be called information intelligent systems - systems which form the core of modern technology. To conceive, design, analyze and use such systems we frequently have to employ the totality of tools that are available. Among such tools are the techniques centered on fuzzy logic, neurocomputing, evolutionary computing, probabilistic computing and related methodologies. It is this conclusion that formed the genesis of the concept of soft computing." (Lotfi A Zadeh, "The Birth and Evolution of Fuzzy Logic: A personal perspective", 1999)

"We do not learn much from looking at a model - we learn more from building the model and manipulating it. Just as one needs to use or observe the use of a hammer in order to really understand its function, similarly, models have to be used before they will give up their secrets. In this sense, they have the quality of a technology - the power of the model only becomes apparent in the context of its use." (Margaret Morrison & Mary S Morgan, "Models as mediating instruments", 1999)

"Periods of rapid change and high exponential growth do not, typically, last long. A new equilibrium with a new dominant technology and/or competitor is likely to be established before long. Periods of punctuation are therefore exciting and exhibit unusual uncertainty. The payoff from establishing a dominant position in this short time is therefore extraordinarily high. Dominance is more likely to come from skill in marketing and positioning than from superior technology itself." (Richar Koch, "The Power Laws", 2000)

"Mythology and science both extend the scope of human beings. Like science and technology, mythology, as we shall see, is not about opting out of this world, but about enabling us to live more intensely within it." (Karen Armstrong, "A Short History Of Myth", 2004)

"In an age when technology is integrating us more tightly together and delivering tremendous flows of innovation, knowledge, connectivity and commerce, the future belongs to those who build webs not walls, who can integrate not separate, to get the most out of these flows." (Thomas L Friedman, The New York Times, 2016)

💹On Economics VI: Equilibrium I

"The general theory of economic equilibrium was strengthened and made effective as an organon of thought by two powerful subsidiary conceptions - the Margin and Substitution. The notion of the Margin was extended beyond Utility to describe the equilibrium point in given conditions of any economic factor which can be regarded as capable of small variations about a given value, or in its functional relation to a given value." (John M Keynes, "Essays In Biography", 1933)

"Perhaps as important is the relation between the existence of solutions to a competitive equilibrium and the problems of normative or welfare economics." (Kenneth J Arrow & Gerard Debreu. "Existence of an equilibrium for a competitive economy", Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1954)

"[Equilibrium] is a notion which can be employed usefully in varying degrees of looseness. It is an absolutely indispensable part of the toolbag of the economist and one which he can often contribute usefully to other sciences which are occasionally apt to get lost in the trackless exfoliations of purely dynamic systems." (Kenneth Boulding, The Skills of the Economist", Journal of Political Economy 67 (1), 1959)

"The ability to work with systems of general equilibrium is perhaps one of the most important skills of the economist - a skill which he shares with many other scientists, but in which he has perhaps a certain comparative advantage." (Kenneth Boulding, "The Skills of the Economist", Journal of Political Economy 67 (1), 1959)

"An economy may be in equilibrium from a short-period point of view and yet contain within itself incompatibilities that are soon going to knock it out of equilibrium." (Joan Robinson, "Essays in the Theory of Economic Growth", 1965)

"What is special about 'general equilibrium theory' as opposed to economic theory in general? For me the importance of general equilibrium theory lies in its traditions which are deeper than any other part of economic theory. These traditions, which of course derive from actual economic history, explain why equilibrium theory has played such a central role and possesses such depth in content. Many of the procedures and  mathematical methods used in other parts of economics grew out of developments in general equilibrium theory. Also equilibrium theory plays an important role in communication within the economics profession." (Steven Smale, "Dynamics in General Equilibrium Theory", The American Economic Review Vol. 66 (2), 1976) 

"We know, in other words, the general conditions in which what we call, somewhat misleadingly, an equilibrium will establish itself: but we never know what the particular prices or wages are which would exist if the market were to bring about such an equilibrium." (Friedrich Hayek, "Unemployment and monetary policy: government as generator of the ‘business cycle’", 1979)

"Economic theory is devoted to the study of equilibrium positions. The concept of equilibrium is very useful. It allows us to focus on the final outcome rather than the process that leads up to it. But the concept is also very deceptive. It has the aura of something empirical: since the adjustment process is supposed to lead to an equilibrium, an equilibrium position seems somehow implicit in our observations. That is not true. Equilibrium itself has rarely been observed in real life - market prices have a notorious habit of fluctuating." (George Soros, "The Alchemy of Finance: Reading the Mind of the Market", 1987)

"The concept of a general equilibrium has no relevance to the real world (in other words, classical economics is an exercise in futility)." (George Soros, "The Alchemy of Finance: Reading the Mind of the Market", 1987)

"Financial markets are supposed to swing like a pendulum: They may fluctuate wildly in response to exogenous shocks, but eventually they are supposed to come to rest at an equilibrium point and that point is supposed to be the same irrespective of the interim fluctuations." (George Soros, "The Crisis of Global Capitalism", 1998)

"Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality - but reality as distorted by a misconception. Under normal conditions misconceptions are self-correcting, and the markets tend toward some kind of equilibrium. Occasionally, a misconception is reinforced by a trend prevailing in reality, and that is when a boom-bust process gets under way. Eventually the gap between reality and its false interpretation becomes unsustainable, and the bubble bursts." (George Soros, [interview] 2004)

Kurt Lewin - Collected Quotes

"A conflict is to be characterized psychologically as a situation in which oppositely directed, simultaneously acting forces of approximately equal strength work upon the individual." (Kurt Lewin, "A Dynamic Theory of Personality", 1935)

"A state of equilibrium in a system does not mean, further, that the system is without tension. Systems can, on the contrary, also come to equilibrium in a state of tension (e.g., a spring under tension or a container with gas under pressure).The occurrence of this sort of system, however, presupposes a certain firmness of boundaries and actual segregation of the system from its environment (both of these in a functional, not a spatial, sense). If the different parts of the system are insufficiently cohesive to withstand the forces working toward displacement (i.e., if the system shows insufficient internal firmness, if it is fluid), or if the system is not segregated from its environment by sufficiently firm walls but is open to its neighboring systems, stationary tensions cannot occur. Instead, there occurs a process in the direction of the forces, which encroaches upon the neighboring regions with diffusion of energy and which goes in the direction of an equilibrium at a lower level of tension in the total region. The presupposition for the existence of a stationary state of tension is thus a certain firmness of the system in question, whether this be its own inner firmness or the firmness of its walls." (Kurt Lewin, "A Dynamic Theory of Personality", 1935)

"The process moves in the direction of a state of equilibrium only for the system as a whole. Part processes may at the same time go on in opposed directions, a circumstance which is of the greatest significance for, for example, the theory of detour behavior. It is hence important to take the system whole which is dominant at the moment as basis." (Kurt Lewin, "A Dynamic Theory of Personality", 1935)

"After this first approximation, the various aspects of the situation undergo a more and more detailed analysis. In contrast to this the second method [for analysis of life space] begins with the life space as a whole and defines its fundamental structure. The procedure in this case is not to add disconnected items but to make the original structure more specific and differentiated. This method therefore proceeds by steps from the more general to the particular and thereby avoids the danger of a "wrong simplification" by abstraction." (Kurt Lewin, "Principles of topological psychology", 1936)

"Even if all the laws of psychology were known, one could make a prediction about the behavior of a man only if in addition to the laws, the special nature of the particular situation were known." (Kurt Lewin, "Principles of topological psychology", 1936)

"[Gestalt:] a system whose parts are dynamically connected in such a way that a change of one part results in a change of all other parts." (Kurt Lewin, "Principles of topological psychology", 1936)

"The young mathematical disciple 'topology' might be of some help in making psychology a real science." (Kurt Lewin, Principles of topological psychology, 1936)

"We know, since the theory of relativity at least, that empirical sciences are to some degree free in defining dynamical concepts or even in assuming laws, and that only a system as a whole which includes concepts, coordinating definitions, and laws can be said to be either true or false, to be adequate or inadequate to empirical facts. This 'freedom', however, is a somewhat doubtful gift. The manifold of possibilities implies uncertainty, and such uncertainty can become rather painful in a science as young as psychology, where nearly all concepts are open and unsettled. As psychology approaches the state of a logically sound science, definitions cease to be an arbitrary matter. They become far-reaching decisions which presuppose the mastering of the conceptual problems but which have to be guided entirely by the objective facts." (Kurt Lewin, "Principles of topological psychology", 1936)

"We no longer seek the cause of events in the nature of a single isolated object, but in the relationship between an object and its surroundings." (Kurt Lewin, "Principles of topological psychology", 1936)

"There is nothing as practical as a good theory” (Kurt Lewin, "Psychology and the process of group living", Journal of Social Psychology 17, 1943)

"For any type of social management, It is of great practical importance that levels of quasi-stationary equilibria can be changed in either of two ways: by adding forces in the desired direction, or by diminishing opposing forces." (Kurt Lewin, "Quasi-Stationary Social Equilibria and the Problem of Permanent Change", 1947)

"The study of the conditions for change begins appropriately with an analysis of the conditions for no change, that is, for the state of equilibrium." (Kurt Lewin, "Quasi-Stationary Social Equilibria and the Problem of Permanent Change", 1947)

"Whether or not a certain type of behaviour occurs depends not on the presence or absence of one fact or of a number of facts viewed in isolation, but upon the constellation (the structure and forces) of the specific field as a whole. The 'meaning' of the single fact depends upon its position in the field." (Kurt Lewin, "Field Theory in Social Science", 1952)

🌡️Thermodynamics I

"The second fundamental theorem [the second law of thermodynamics], in the form which I have given to it, asserts that all transformations occurring in nature may take place in a certain direction, which I have assumed as positive, by themselves, that is, without compensation […] the entire condition of the universe must always continue to change in that first direction, and the universe must consequently approach incessantly a limiting condition. […] For every body two magnitudes have thereby presented themselves - the transformation value of its thermal content [the amount of inputted energy that is converted to 'work'], and its disgregation [separation or disintegration]; the sum of which constitutes its entropy." (Rudolf Clausius, "The Mechanical Theory of Heat", 1867)

"Since a given system can never of its own accord go over into another equally probable state but into a more probable one, it is likewise impossible to construct a system of bodies that after traversing various states returns periodically to its original state, that is a perpetual motion machine." (Ludwig E Boltzmann, "The Second Law of Thermodynamics", [Address to a Formal meeting of the Imperial Academy of Science], 1886)

"The second law of thermodynamics appears solely as a law of probability, entropy as a measure of the probability, and the increase of entropy is equivalent to a statement that more probable events follow less probable ones." (Max Planck, "A Survey of Physics", 1923)

"It was not easy for a person brought up in the ways of classical thermodynamics to come around to the idea that gain of entropy eventually is nothing more nor less than loss of information." (Gilbert N Lewis, [Letter to Irving Langmuir] 1930)

"True equilibria can occur only in closed systems and that, in open systems, disequilibria called ‘steady states’, or ‘flow equilibria’ are the predominant and characteristic feature. According to the second law of thermodynamics a closed system must eventually attain a time-independent equilibrium state, with maximum entropy and minimum free energy. An open system may, under certain conditions, attain a time-independent state where the system remains constant as a whole and in its phases, though there is a continuous flow of component materials. This is called a steady state. Steady states are irreversible as a whole. […] A closed system in equilibrium does not need energy for its preservation, nor can energy be obtained from it. In order to perform work, a system must be in disequilibrium, tending toward equilibrium and maintaining a steady state, Therefore the character of an open system is the necessary condition for the continuous working capacity of the organism." (Ludwig on Bertalanffy, "Theoretische Biologie: Band 1: Allgemeine Theorie, Physikochemie, Aufbau und Entwicklung des Organismus", 1932)

"When a transfer of matter to or from a system is also possible, the system may be called an open system." (Frank H MacDougall, "Thermodynamics and chemistry", ?1939)

"A theory is the more impressive the greater the simplicity of its premises is, the more different kinds of things it relates, and the more extended is its area of applicability. Therefore the deep impression which classical thermodynamics made upon me. It is the only physical theory of universal content concerning which I am convinced that, within the framework of the applicability of its basic concepts, it will never be overthrown (for the special attention of those who are skeptics on principle)." (Albert Einstein, "Autobiographical Notes", 1949)

"Reversible processes are not, in fact, processes at all, they are sequences of states of equilibrium. The processes which we encounter in real life are always irreversible processes." (Arnold Sommerfeld, "Thermodynamics and Statistical Mechanics", Lectures on Theoretical - Physics Vol. V, 1956)

🌡️Thermodynamics III

"My analysis of living systems uses concepts of thermodynamics, information theory, cybernetics, and systems engineering, as well as the classical concepts appropriate to each level. The purpose is to produce a description of living structure and process in terms of input and output, flows through systems, steady states, and feedbacks, which will clarify and unify the facts of life." (James G Miller, "Living Systems: Basic Concepts", 1969)

"In an isolated system, which cannot exchange energy and matter with the surroundings, this tendency is expressed in terms of a function of the macroscopic state of the system: the entropy." (Ilya Prigogine, "Thermodynamics of Evolution", 1972)

"[The] system may evolve through a whole succession of transitions leading to a hierarchy of more and more complex and organized states. Such transitions can arise in nonlinear systems that are maintained far from equilibrium: that is, beyond a certain critical threshold the steady-state regime become unstable and the system evolves into a new configuration." (Ilya Prigogine, Gregoire Micolis & Agnes Babloyantz, "Thermodynamics of Evolution", Physics Today 25 (11), 1972)

"The evolution of a physicochemical system leads to an equilibrium state of maximum disorder." (Ilya Prigogine, "Thermodynamics of Evolution", 1972)

"The functional order maintained within living systems seems to defy the Second Law; nonequilibrium thermodynamics describes how such systems come to terms with entropy." (Ilya Prigogine, "Thermodynamics of Evolution", 1972)

"When matter is becoming disturbed by non-equilibrium conditions it organizes itself, it wakes up. It happens that our world is a non-equilibrium system." (Ilya Prigogine, "Thermodynamics of Evolution", 1972)

"There is nothing supernatural about the process of self-organization to states of higher entropy; it is a general property of systems, regardless of their materials and origin. It does not violate the Second Law of thermodynamics since the decrease in entropy within an open system is always offset by the increase of entropy in its surroundings." (Ervin László, "Introduction to Systems Philosophy", 1972)

"Concepts form the basis for any science. These are ideas, usually somewhat vague (especially when first encountered), which often defy really adequate definition. The meaning of a new concept can seldom be grasped from reading a one-paragraph discussion. There must be time to become accustomed to the concept, to investigate it with prior knowledge, and to associate it with personal experience. Inability to work with details of a new subject can often be traced to inadequate understanding of its basic concepts." (William C Reynolds & Harry C Perkins, "Engineering Thermodynamics", 1977)

"Just like a computer, we must remember things in the order in which entropy increases. This makes the second law of thermodynamics almost trivial. Disorder increases with time because we measure time in the direction in which disorder increases."  (Stephen Hawking, "A Brief History of Time", 1988)

"Life is nature's solution to the problem of preserving information despite the second law of thermodynamics." (Howard L Resnikoff, "The Illusion of Reality", 1989)

🌡️Thermodynamics II

"Everywhere […] in the Universe, we discern that closed physical systems evolve in the same sense from ordered states towards a state of complete disorder called thermal equilibrium. This cannot be a consequence of known laws of change, since […] these laws are time symmetric- they permit […] time-reverse. […] The initial conditions play a decisive role in endowing the world with its sense of temporal direction. […] some prescription for initial conditions is crucial if we are to understand […]" (John D Barrow, "Theories of Everything: The Quest for Ultimate Explanation", 1991)

"Three laws governing black hole changes were thus found, but it was soon noticed that something unusual was going on. If one merely replaced the words 'surface area' by 'entropy' and 'gravitational field' by 'temperature', then the laws of black hole changes became merely statements of the laws of thermodynamics. The rule that the horizon surface areas can never decrease in physical processes becomes the second law of thermodynamics that the entropy can never decrease; the constancy of the gravitational field around the horizon is the so-called zeroth law of thermodynamics that the temperature must be the same everywhere in a state of thermal equilibrium. The rule linking allowed changes in the defining quantities of the black hole just becomes the first law of thermodynamics, which is more commonly known as the conservation of energy." (John D Barrow, "Theories of Everything: The Quest for Ultimate Explanation", 1991)

"The second law of thermodynamics, which requires average entropy (or disorder) to increase, does not in any way forbid local order from arising through various mechanisms of self-organization, which can turn accidents into frozen ones producing extensive regularities. Again, such mechanisms are not restricted to complex adaptive systems." (Murray Gell-Mann, "What is Complexity?", Complexity Vol 1 (1), 1995)

"Emergent self-organization in multi-agent systems appears to contradict the second law of thermodynamics. This paradox has been explained in terms of a coupling between the macro level that hosts self-organization (and an apparent reduction in entropy), and the micro level (where random processes greatly increase entropy). Metaphorically, the micro level serves as an entropy 'sink', permitting overall system entropy to increase while sequestering this increase from the interactions where self-organization is desired." (H Van Dyke Parunak & Sven Brueckner, "Entropy and Self-Organization in Multi-Agent Systems", Proceedings of the International Conference on Autonomous Agents, 2001)

"The second law of thermodynamics states that in an isolated system, entropy can only increase, not decrease. Such systems evolve to their state of maximum entropy, or thermodynamic equilibrium. Therefore, physical self-organizing systems cannot be isolated: they require a constant input of matter or energy with low entropy, getting rid of the internally generated entropy through the output of heat ('dissipation'). This allows them to produce ‘dissipative structures’ which maintain far from thermodynamic equilibrium. Life is a clear example of order far from thermodynamic equilibrium." (Carlos Gershenson, "Design and Control of Self-organizing Systems", 2007)

"Thermodynamics is about those properties of systems that are true independent of their mechanism. This is why there is a fundamental asymmetry in the relationship between mechanistic descriptions of systems and thermodynamic descriptions of systems. From the mechanistic information we can deduce all the thermodynamic properties of that system. However, given only thermodynamic information we can deduce nothing about mechanism. This is in spite of the fact that thermodynamics makes it possible for us to reject classes of models such as perpetual motion machines." (Carlos Gershenson, “Design and Control of Self-organizing Systems”, 2007)

"Second Law of thermodynamics is not an equality, but an inequality, asserting merely that a certain quantity referred to as the entropy of an isolated system - which is a measure of the system’s disorder, or ‘randomness’ - is greater (or at least not smaller) at later times than it was at earlier times." (Roger Penrose, "Cycles of Time: An Extraordinary New View of the Universe", 2010)

"The laws of thermodynamics tell us something quite different. Economic activity is merely borrowing low-entropy energy inputs from the environment and transforming them into temporary products and services of value. In the transformation process, often more energy is expended and lost to the environment than is embedded in the particular good or service being produced." (Jeremy Rifkin, "The Third Industrial Revolution", 2011)

"The reactions that break down large molecules into small ones do not require an input of energy, but the reactions that build up large molecules require and input of energy. This is consistent with the laws of thermodynamics, which say that large, orderly molecules tend to break down into small, disorderly molecules." (Stanley A Rice, "Life of Earth: Portrait of a Beautiful, Middle-aged Stressed-out World", 2011)

"The Second Law of Thermodynamics states that in an isolated system (one that is not taking in energy), entropy never decreases. (The First Law is that energy is conserved; the Third, that a temperature of absolute zero is unreachable.) Closed systems inexorably become less structured, less organized, less able to accomplish interesting and useful outcomes, until they slide into an equilibrium of gray, tepid, homogeneous monotony and stay there." (Steven Pinker, "The Second Law of Thermodynamics", 2017)

Complex Systems VI

"In short, complex adaptive systems are characterized by perpetual novelty." (M Mitchell Waldrop, "Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos", 1992)

"[...] it's essentially meaningless to talk about a complex adaptive system being in equilibrium: the system can never get there. It is always unfolding, always in transition. In fact, if the system ever does reach equilibrium, it isn't just stable. It's dead." (M Mitchell Waldrop, "Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos", 1992)

"If universality is one of the observed characteristics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of study, a second characteristic that flows from the study of these systems is that of emergence. As self-organizing systems go about their daily business, they are constantly exchanging matter and energy with their environment, and this allows them to remain in a state that is far from equilibrium. That allows spontaneous behavior to give rise to new patterns." (Terry Cooke-Davies et al, "Exploring the Complexity of Projects", 2009)

"The difference between complex adaptive systems and self-organizing systems is that the former have the capacity to learn from their experience, and thus to embody successful patterns into their repertoire, although there is actually quite a deep relationship between self-organizing systems and complex adaptive systems. Adaptive entities can emerge at high levels of description in simple self-organizing systems, i.e., adaptive systems are not necessarily self-organizing systems with something extra thrown in." (Terry Cooke-Davies et al, "Exploring the Complexity of Projects", 2009)

"Most systems in nature are inherently nonlinear and can only be described by nonlinear equations, which are difficult to solve in a closed form. Non-linear systems give rise to interesting phenomena such as chaos, complexity, emergence and self-organization. One of the characteristics of non-linear systems is that a small change in the initial conditions can give rise to complex and significant changes throughout the system. This property of a non-linear system such as the weather is known as the butterfly effect where it is purported that a butterfly flapping its wings in Japan can give rise to a tornado in Kansas. This unpredictable behaviour of nonlinear dynamical systems, i.e. its extreme sensitivity to initial conditions, seems to be random and is therefore referred to as chaos. This chaotic and seemingly random behaviour occurs for non-linear deterministic system in which effects can be linked to causes but cannot be predicted ahead of time." (Robert K Logan, "The Poetry of Physics and The Physics of Poetry", 2010)

"Complex systems seem to have this property, with large periods of apparent stasis marked by sudden and catastrophic failures. These processes may not literally be random, but they are so irreducibly complex (right down to the last grain of sand) that it just won’t be possible to predict them beyond a certain level. […] And yet complex processes produce order and beauty when you zoom out and look at them from enough distance." (Nate Silver, "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't", 2012)

"We forget - or we willfully ignore - that our models are simplifications of the world. We figure that if we make a mistake, it will be at the margin. In complex systems, however, mistakes are not measured in degrees but in whole orders of magnitude." (Nate Silver, "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't", 2012)

"If an emerging system is born complex, there is neither leeway to abandon it when it fails, nor the means to join another, successful one. Such a system would be caught in an immovable grip, congested at the top, and prevented, by a set of confusing but locked–in precepts, from changing." (Lawrence K Samuels, "Defense of Chaos: The Chaology of Politics, Economics and Human Action", 2013) 

"Simplicity in a system tends to increase that system’s efficiency. Because less can go wrong with fewer parts, less will. Complexity in a system tends to increase that system’s inefficiency; the greater the number of variables, the greater the probability of those variables clashing, and in turn, the greater the potential for conflict and disarray. Because more can go wrong, more will. That is why centralized systems are inclined to break down quickly and become enmeshed in greater unintended consequences." (Lawrence K Samuels,"Defense of Chaos: The Chaology of Politics, Economics and Human Action", 2013)

"One of the remarkable features of these complex systems created by replicator dynamics is that infinitesimal differences in starting positions create vastly different patterns. This sensitive dependence on initial conditions is often called the butterfly-effect aspect of complex systems - small changes in the replicator dynamics or in the starting point can lead to enormous differences in outcome, and they change one’s view of how robust the current reality is. If it is complex, one small change could have led to a reality that is quite different." (David Colander & Roland Kupers, "Complexity and the art of public policy : solving society’s problems from the bottom up", 2014)

On Nonlinearity IV (Organizations)

"In strategic thinking, one first seeks a clear understanding of the particular character of each element of a situation and then makes the fullest possible use of human brainpower to restructure the elements in the most advantageous way. Phenomena and events in the real word do not always fit a linear model. Hence the most reliable means of dissecting a situation into its constituent parts and reassembling then in the desired pattern is not a step-by-step methodology such as systems analysis. Rather, it is that ultimate nonlinear thinking tool, the human brain. True strategic thinking thus contrasts sharply with the conventional mechanical systems approach based on linear thinking. But it also contrasts with the approach that stakes everything on intuition, reaching conclusions without any real breakdown or analysis. [...] No matter how difficult or unprecedented the problem, a breakthrough to the best possible solution can come only from a combination of rational analysis, based on the real nature of things, and imaginative reintegration of all the different items into a new pattern, using nonlinear brainpower. This is always the most effective approach to devising strategies for dealing successfully with challenges and opportunities, in the market arena as on the battlefield." (Kenichi Ohmae, "The Mind Of The Strategist", 1982)

"So we pour in data from the past to fuel the decision-making mechanisms created by our models, be they linear or nonlinear. But therein lies the logician's trap: past data from real life constitute a sequence of events rather than a set of independent observations, which is what the laws of probability demand.[...] It is in those outliers and imperfections that the wildness lurks." (Peter L Bernstein, "Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk", 1996)

"In a linear world of equilibrium and predictability, the sparse research into an evidence base for management prescriptions and the confused findings it produces would be a sign of incompetence; it would not make much sense. Nevertheless, if organizations are actually patterns of nonlinear interaction between people; if small changes could produce widespread major consequences; if local interaction produces emergent global pattern; then it will not be possible to provide a reliable evidence base. In such a world, it makes no sense to conduct studies looking for simple causal relationships between an action and an outcome. I suggest that the story of the last few years strongly indicates that human action is nonlinear, that time and place matter a great deal, and that since this precludes simple evidence bases we do need to rethink the nature of organizations and the roles of managers and leaders in them." (Ralph D Stacey, "Complexity and Organizational Reality", 2000)

"The world is nonlinear. Trying to make it linear for our mathematical or administrative convenience is not usually a good idea even when feasible, and it is rarely feasible." (Donella H Meadow, "Thinking in Systems: A Primer", 2008)

"Complexity theory shows that great changes can emerge from small actions. Change involves a belief in the possible, even the 'impossible'. Moreover, social innovators don’t follow a linear pathway of change; there are ups and downs, roller-coaster rides along cascades of dynamic interactions, unexpected and unanticipated divergences, tipping points and critical mass momentum shifts. Indeed, things often get worse before they get better as systems change creates resistance to and pushback against the new. Traditional evaluation approaches are not well suited for such turbulence. Traditional evaluation aims to control and predict, to bring order to chaos. Developmental evaluation accepts such turbulence as the way the world of social innovation unfolds in the face of complexity. Developmental evaluation adapts to the realities of complex nonlinear dynamics rather than trying to impose order and certainty on a disorderly and uncertain world." (Michael Q Patton, "Developmental Evaluation", 2010)

"Internal friction is exacerbated by the fact that in business as in war, we are operating in a nonlinear, semi-chaotic environment in which our endeavors will collide and possibly clash with the actions of other independent wills (customers, suppliers, competitors, regulators, lobbyists, and so on). The internal and external worlds are in constant contact and the effects of our actions are the result of their reciprocal interaction. Friction gives rise to three gaps: the knowledge gap, the alignment gap, and the effects gap. To execute effectively, we must address all three. Our instinctive reaction to the three gaps is to demand more detail. We gather more data in order to craft more detailed plans, issue more detailed instructions, and exercise more detailed control. This not only fails to solve the problem, it usually makes it worse. We need to think about the problem differently and adopt a systemic approach to solving it." (Stephen Bungay, "The Art of Action: How Leaders Close the Gaps between Plans, Actions, and Results", 2010)

"Motivation is a fine example of social complexity. It is nonlinear and sometimes unpredictable. It cannot be defined or modeled with a single diagram." (Jurgen Appelo, "Management 3.0: Leading Agile Developers, Developing Agile Leaders", 2010)

"We have minds that are equipped for certainty, linearity and short-term decisions, that must instead make long-term decisions in a non-linear, probabilistic world. (Paul Gibbons, "The Science of Successful Organizational Change", 2015)

On Nonlinearity V (Chaos I)

"When one combines the new insights gained from studying far-from-equilibrium states and nonlinear processes, along with these complicated feedback systems, a whole new approach is opened that makes it possible to relate the so-called hard sciences to the softer sciences of life - and perhaps even to social processes as well. […] It is these panoramic vistas that are opened to us by Order Out of Chaos." (Ilya Prigogine, "Order Out of Chaos: Man's New Dialogue with Nature", 1984)

"Algorithmic complexity theory and nonlinear dynamics together establish the fact that determinism reigns only over a quite finite domain; outside this small haven of order lies a largely uncharted, vast wasteland of chaos." (Joseph Ford, "Progress in Chaotic Dynamics: Essays in Honor of Joseph Ford's 60th Birthday", 1988)

"The term chaos is used in a specific sense where it is an inherently random pattern of behaviour generated by fixed inputs into deterministic (that is fixed) rules (relationships). The rules take the form of non-linear feedback loops. Although the specific path followed by the behaviour so generated is random and hence unpredictable in the long-term, it always has an underlying pattern to it, a 'hidden' pattern, a global pattern or rhythm. That pattern is self-similarity, that is a constant degree of variation, consistent variability, regular irregularity, or more precisely, a constant fractal dimension. Chaos is therefore order (a pattern) within disorder (random behaviour)." (Ralph D Stacey, "The Chaos Frontier: Creative Strategic Control for Business", 1991)

"In the everyday world of human affairs, no one is surprised to learn that a tiny event over here can have an enormous effect over there. For want of a nail, the shoe was lost, et cetera. But when the physicists started paying serious attention to nonlinear systems in their own domain, they began to realize just how profound a principle this really was. […] Tiny perturbations won't always remain tiny. Under the right circumstances, the slightest uncertainty can grow until the system's future becomes utterly unpredictable - or, in a word, chaotic." (M Mitchell Waldrop, "Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos", 1992)

"There is a new science of complexity which says that the link between cause and effect is increasingly difficult to trace; that change (planned or otherwise) unfolds in non-linear ways; that paradoxes and contradictions abound; and that creative solutions arise out of diversity, uncertainty and chaos." (Andy P Hargreaves & Michael Fullan, "What’s Worth Fighting for Out There?", 1998)

"Let's face it, the universe is messy. It is nonlinear, turbulent, and chaotic. It is dynamic. It spends its time in transient behavior on its way to somewhere else, not in mathematically neat equilibria. It self-organizes and evolves. It creates diversity, not uniformity. That's what makes the world interesting, that's what makes it beautiful, and that's what makes it work." (Donella H Meadow, "Thinking in Systems: A Primer", 2008)

"Complexity theory can be defined broadly as the study of how order, structure, pattern, and novelty arise from extremely complicated, apparently chaotic systems and conversely, how complex behavior and structure emerges from simple underlying rules. As such, it includes those other areas of study that are collectively known as chaos theory, and nonlinear dynamical theory." (Terry Cooke-Davies et al, "Exploring the Complexity of Projects", 2009)

"Most systems in nature are inherently nonlinear and can only be described by nonlinear equations, which are difficult to solve in a closed form. Non-linear systems give rise to interesting phenomena such as chaos, complexity, emergence and self-organization. One of the characteristics of non-linear systems is that a small change in the initial conditions can give rise to complex and significant changes throughout the system. This property of a non-linear system such as the weather is known as the butterfly effect where it is purported that a butterfly flapping its wings in Japan can give rise to a tornado in Kansas. This unpredictable behaviour of nonlinear dynamical systems, i.e. its extreme sensitivity to initial conditions, seems to be random and is therefore referred to as chaos. This chaotic and seemingly random behaviour occurs for non-linear deterministic system in which effects can be linked to causes but cannot be predicted ahead of time." (Robert K Logan, "The Poetry of Physics and The Physics of Poetry", 2010)

"Even more important is the way complex systems seem to strike a balance between the need for order and the imperative for change. Complex systems tend to locate themselves at a place we call 'the edge of chaos'. We imagine the edge of chaos as a place where there is enough innovation to keep a living system vibrant, and enough stability to keep it from collapsing into anarchy. It is a zone of conflict and upheaval, where the old and new are constantly at war. Finding the balance point must be a delicate matter - if a living system drifts too close, it risks falling over into incoherence and dissolution; but if the system moves too far away from the edge, it becomes rigid, frozen, totalitarian. Both conditions lead to extinction. […] Only at the edge of chaos can complex systems flourish. This threshold line, that edge between anarchy and frozen rigidity, is not a like a fence line, it is a fractal line; it possesses nonlinearity." (Stephen H Buhner, "Plant Intelligence and the Imaginal Realm: Beyond the Doors of Perception into the Dreaming of Earth", 2014)

"To remedy chaotic situations requires a chaotic approach, one that is non-linear, constantly morphing, and continually sharpening its competitive edge with recurring feedback loops that build upon past experiences and lessons learned. Improvement cannot be sustained without reflection. Chaos arises from myriad sources that stem from two origins: internal chaos rising within you, and external chaos being imposed upon you by the environment. The result of this push/pull effect is the disequilibrium [...]." (Jeff Boss, "Navigating Chaos: How to Find Certainty in Uncertain Situations", 2015)

On Entropy (1960-1969)

"Science is usually understood to depict a universe of strict order and lawfulness, of rigorous economy - one whose currency is energy, convertible against a service charge into a growing common pool called entropy." (Paul A Weiss,"Organic Form: Scientific and Aesthetic Aspects", 1960)

"The basic objection to attempts to deduce the unidirectional nature of time from concepts such as entropy is that they are attempts to reduce a more fundamental concept to a less fundamental one." (Gerald J Whitrow, "The Natural Philosophy of Time", 1961)

"Both the uncertainty principle and the negentropy principle of information make Laplace's scheme [of exact determinism] completely unrealistic. The problem is an artificial one; it belongs to imaginative poetry, not to experimental science." (Léon Brillouin, "Science and Information Theory" 2nd Ed., 1962)

"Entropy is a measure of the heat energy in a substance that has been lost and is no longer available for work. It is a measure of the deterioration of a system." (William B. Sill & Norman Hoss (Eds.), "Popular Science Encyclopedia of the Sciences", 1963)

"The homeostatic principle does not apply literally to the functioning of all complex living systems, in that in counteracting entropy they move toward growth and expansion." (Daniel Katz, "The Social Psychology of Organizations", 1966) 

"Higher, directed forms of energy (e.g., mechanical, electric, chemical) are dissipated, that is, progressively converted into the lowest form of energy, i.e., undirected heat movement of molecules; chemical systems tend toward equilibria with maximum entropy; machines wear out owing to friction; in communication channels, information can only be lost by conversion of messages into noise but not vice versa, and so forth." (Ludwig von Bertalanffy, "Robots, Men and Minds", 1967)

On Tektology

"Tectology, or the theory of structure in organisms, is the comprehensive science of individuality among living natural bodies, which usually represent an aggregate of individuals of various orders.  The task of organic tectology is therefore to identify and explain organic individuality, i.e. to identify the precise natural laws according to which organic matter individualises itself, and according to which most organisms construct a unified form-complex composed of individuals of various orders." (Ernst  Häckel, "Generelle Morphologie der Organismen" ["General Morphology of Organisms"], 1866)

"It should therewith be remembered that as mathematics studies neutral complexes, mathematical thinking is an organizational process and hence its methods, as well as the methods of all other sciences and those of any practice, fall within the province of a general tektology. Tektology is a unique science which must not only work out its own methods by itself but must study them as well; therefore it is the completion of the cycle of sciences." (Alexander Bogdanov, "Tektology: The Universal Organizational Science" Vol. I, 1913)

"Mathematics abstracts from all the particular properties of the elements hidden behind its schemata. This is achieved by mathematics with the help of indifferent symbols, like numbers or letters. Tektology must do likewise. Its generalizations should abstract from the concreteness of elements whose organizational relationships they express, and conceal this concreteness behind indifferent symbols." (Alexander Bogdanov, "Tektology: The Universal Organizational Science" Vol. I, 1913)

"Tektology must discover what modes of organization are observed in nature and human activities; then generalize and systemize these modes; further it should explain them, that is, elaborate abstract schemes of their tendencies and regularities; finally, based on these schemes it must determine the directions of organizational modes development and elucidate their role in the economy of world processes. This general plan is similar to the plan of any other science but the object studied differs essentially. Tektology deals with the organizational experience not of some particular branch but with that of all of them in the aggregate; to put it in other words, tektology embraces the material of all the other sciences, as well as of all the vital practices from which those sciences arose, but considers this material only in respect of methods, i.e. everywhere it takes an interest in the mode of the organization of this material."  (Alexander Bogdanov, "Tektology: The Universal Organizational Science" Vol. I, 1913)

"The methods of tektology, as is seen, combine the abstract symbolism of mathematics and the experimental character Of the natural sciences. Furthermore, the very formulation of its problems, the very treatment of organizedness by tektology, as has been elucidated, should stick to the social historical viewpoint. And whatever the subject matter, or the content, of tektology , it embraces the whole world of experience. So tektology is really a universal science by its methods and its content."  (Alexander Bogdanov, "Tektology: The Universal Organizational Science" Vol. I, 1913)

"[…] there is a special relationship, a profound affinity between mathematics and tektology. Mathematical laws do not refer to a particular area of natural phenomena, as the laws of the other, special, sciences do, but to each and all phenomena, considered merely in their quantitative aspect; mathematics is in its own way universal, like tektology."  (Alexander Bogdanov, "Tektology: The Universal Organizational Science" Vol. I, 1913)

"Two divisions are distinguished in all natural sciences - 'statics' which deals with forms in equilibrium, and 'dynamics' which deals with the same forms, as well as their motion, in the process of change. […] Statics always evolves earlier than dynamics, the former being then reconstructed under the influence of the latter. The relationship between mathematics and tektology is seen to be similar: one represents the standpoint of organizational statics and the other - that of organizational dynamics. The latter standpoint is the more general, for equilibrium is only a particular case of motion, and in essence, is just an ideal case resulting from changes which are completely equal but quite opposite in direction." (Alexander Bogdanov, "Tektology: The Universal Organizational Science" Vol. I, 1913)

"We shall call this universal organizational science the 'Tektology'. The literal translation of this word from the Greek is 'the theory of construction'. 'Construction' is the most generaI and suitable synonym for the modern concept of 'organization'. [...] The aim of tektology is to systematize organizational experience; this science is clearly empirical and should draw its conclusions by way of induction." (Alexander Bogdanov, "Tektology: The Universal Organizational Science" Vol. I, 1913)

"For tektology the unity of experience is not 'discovered', but actively created by organizational means: ‘philosophers wanted to explain the world, but the main point is it change it’ said the greater precursor of organizational science, Karl Marx. The explanation of organizational forms and methods by tektology is directed not to a contemplation of their unity, but to a practical mastery over them." (Alexander Bogdanov, "Tektology: The Universal Organizational Science", 1922)

"Tektology must clarify the modes of organization that are perceived to exist in nature and human activity; then it must generalize and systematize these modes; further it must explain them, that is, propose abstract schemes of their tendencies and laws; finally, based on these schemes, determine the direction of organizational methods and their role in the universal process. This general plan is similar to the plan of any natural science; but the objective of tektology is basically different. Tektology deals with organizational experiences not of this or that specialized field, but of all these fields together. In other words, tektology embraces the subject matter of all the other sciences and of all the human experience giving rise to these sciences, but only from the aspect of method, that is, it is interested only in the modes of organization of this subject matter." (Alexander Bogdanov, "Tektology: The Universal Organizational Science", 1922)

"The strength of an organization lies in precise coordination of its parts, in strict correspondence of various mutually connected functions. This coordination is maintained through constant growth in tektological variety, but not without bounds […] there comes a moment when the parts of the whole become too differentiated in their organization and their resistance to the surrounding environment weakens. This leads sooner or later to disorganization." (Alexander Bogdanov, "Tektology: The Universal Organizational Science", 1922)

"Tektology was the first attempt in the history of science to arrive at a systematic formulation of the principles of organization operating in living and nonliving systems." (Fritjof Capra, "The Web of Life", 1996)

"Tektology is concerned only with activities, but activities are characterized by the fact that they produce changes. From this point of view it is out of the question to think about a simple and pure 'preservation' of forms, one that would constitute a real absence of changes. Preservation is always only a result of immediately equilibrating each of the appearing changes by another opposing change; it Is a dynamic equilibrium of changes."(Alexander Bogdanov) 

Game Theory II

"A proven theorem of game theory states that every game with complete information possesses a saddle point and therefore a solution." (Richard A Epstein, "The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic" [Revised Edition], 1977)

"Game theory is a collection of mathematical models designed to study situations involving conflict and/or cooperation. It allows for a multiplicity of decision makers who may have different preferences and objectives. Such models involve a variety of different solution concepts concerned with strategic optimization, stability, bargaining, compromise, equity and coalition formation." (Notices of the American Mathematical Society Vol. 26 (1), 1979) 

"A finite game is played for the purpose of winning, an infinite game for the purpose of continuing the play." (James P Cars, "Finite and Infinite Games: A Vision of Life as Play and Possibility", 1986)

"Game theory is a theory of strategic interaction. That is to say, it is a theory of rational behavior in social situations in which each player has to choose his moves on the basis of what he thinks the other players' countermoves are likely to be." (John Harsanyi, "Games with Incomplete Information", The American Economic Review Vol. 85 (3), 1997)

"In principle, every social situation involves strategic interaction among the participants. Thus, one might argue that proper understanding of any social situation would require game-theoretic analysis. But in actual fact, classical economic theory did manage to sidestep the game-theoretic aspects of economic behavior by postulating perfect competition, i. e., by assuming that every buyer and every seller is very small as compared with the size of the relevant markets, so that nobody can significantly affect the existing market prices by his actions." (John Harsanyi, "Games with Incomplete Information" 1997)

"Like all of mathematics, game theory is a tautology whose conclusions are true because they are contained in the premises." (Thomas Flanagan, "Game Theory and Canadian Politics", 1998)

"I think game theory creates ideas that are important in solving and approaching conflict in general." Robert Aumann, 2005)

"The players in a game are said to be in strategic equilibrium (or simply equilibrium) when their play is mutually optimal: when the actions and plans of each player are rational in the given strategic environment - i. e., when each knows the actions and plans of the others." (Robert Aumann, "War and Peace", 2005)

"An equilibrium is not always an optimum; it might not even be good. This may be the most important discovery of game theory." (Ivar Ekeland, "The Best of All Possible Worlds", 2006)

"Game theory brings to the chaos–theory table the idea that generally, societies are not designed, and that most situations don't come with a rulebook. Instead, people have their own plans and designs on how things should fit together. They want to determine how the game is played, and they see societal designers as myopic busybodies who would imprison them with their theories." (Lawrence K Samuels, "In Defense of Chaos: The Chaology of Politics, Economics and Human Action", 2013)