The "probability is the very guide of life" adage is attributed to Joseph Butler (1692-1752) and surprisingly (see [6]) Marcus Tullius Cicero (106-43 BC). Surprisingly because at first glance it is hard to believe that a concept relatively new as the one of probability was known to the antics, even if philosophical texts on divinity, fate, divination, causality or similar topics approached notions like chance or plausibility.
The concept of probability entered in common usage only starting with 14th century via the French vocabulary, the term being derived directly from the Latin probabilitatem/probabilitas which belong to the family of words derived from 'probabilis' and translated as 'probable' or 'plausible'.
Cicero used indeed 'probable' (Latin: probabilis) close to its actual meaning and provides a definition for it in "De Inventione" (cca. 91 and 88 BC), one of his earliest works, considered by historians as one of the main works on rhetoric:
"That is probable which for the most part usually comes to pass, or which is a part of the ordinary beliefs of mankind, or which contains in itself some resemblance to these qualities, whether such resemblance be true or false." [1]
Cicero used 'probable' also in "De Natura Deorum" (cca. 45 BC) with the same meaning:
"For we are not people who believe that there is nothing whatever which is true; but we say that some falsehoods are so blended with all truths, and have so great a resemblance to them, that there is no certain rule for judging of, or assenting to propositions; from which this maxim also follows, that many things are probable, which, though they are not evident to the senses, have still so persuasive and beautiful an aspect, that a wise man chooses to direct his conduct by them." [2]
"But, as it is the peculiar property of the Academy to interpose no personal judgment of its own, but to admit those opinions which appear most probable, to compare arguments, and to set forth all that may be reasonably stated in favour of each proposition; and so, without putting forth any authority of its own, to leave the judgment of the hearers free and unprejudiced; we will retain this custom, which has been handed down from Socrates; and this method, dear brother Quintus, if you please, we will adopt as often as possible in all our dialogues together." [2]
However, from 'probable' to 'probability' (Latin: probabilitas) there's an important leap of meaning. The use of 'probability' can be explained by translator's choice of using it in the detriment of terms like 'chance', 'odds' or 'possible', though searches in the online texts of the book in the translations of Charles D Yonge (1878) and Francis Brooks (1896) provided no proximate occurrences of the adage.
Even more surprising, a similar form of the adage appears in Sextus Empiricus' "Outlines of Pyrrhonism" (cca. 3rd century):
"Furthermore, as regards the End (the aim of life) we differ from the New Academy; for whereas the men who profess to conform to its doctrine use probability as the guide of life; we live in an undogmatic way by following the laws, customs, and natural affections." [3]
Do we have here another situation in which the translator assumed a choice of words or maybe in the original text there were indeed references to probability? Unfortunately, the available translation used as source for the quote is from Greek.
The adage in its quoted form can be found in Joseph Butler's "The Analogy of Religion" (1736):
"Probable evidence, in its very nature, affords but an imperfect kind of information, and is to be considered as relative only to beings of limited capacities. For nothing which is the possible object of knowledge, whether past, present, or future, can be probable to an infinite Intelligence; since it cannot but be discerned absolutely as it is in itself, certainly true, or certainly false. To us, probability is the very guide of life." [4]
According to Butler we use probability to guide us in life when we deal with incomplete (imperfect) information, when we can't discern whether things are false or true and/or nuances of grey exist in between. For Cicero the things more probable tend to happen even if the senses can't discern which of the things are more probable, the wisdom of a person relying in the ability in identifying and evaluating the things probable. One can recognize in Cicero’s definition an early glimpse of entropy – the movement toward more probable states.
Despite the deep role propabilities play in life, we can still question adage's generalization - the degree to which we use probabilities to guide us in life. We do occasionally think in terms of the probabilities for an event to happen; we do tend to believe that what is more probable to happen will happen. Probably, the more we are caught in scientific endeavors, the more likely we use probabilities in decision making. Though, there's a limit to it, limit associated to the degree we are able to understand and use probabilities.
I'd like to believe that Cicero's thoughts were in the proximate range of meaning associated with the early concept of probability, though a deeper analysis of the original text is needed and even then we can only advance suppositions.
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References:
[1] Marcus Tullius Cicero (cca. 91 and 88 BC) "De inventione", ["On Invention"]
[2] Marcus Tullius Cicero (45 BC) "De Natura Deorum" ["On the Nature of the Gods"]
[3] Sextus Empiricus (cca. 3rd century) "Outlines of Pyrrhonism"
[4] Joseph Butler (1736) "The Analogy of Religion, Natural and Revealed, to the Constitution and Course of Nature"
[5] Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (2014) Probability in
Medieval and Renaissance Philosophy [source]
[6] Kate L Roberts (1922) Hoyt's New Cyclopedia Of Practical Quotations
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