09 July 2023

On Inference (2010-2019)

"A second approach to statistical inference is estimation, which focuses on finding the best point estimate of the population parameter that’s of greatest interest; it also gives an interval estimate of that parameter, to signal how close our point estimate is likely to be to the population value." (Geoff Cumming, "Understanding the New Statistics", 2012)

"Regression analysis, like all forms of statistical inference, is designed to offer us insights into the world around us. We seek patterns that will hold true for the larger population. However, our results are valid only for a population that is similar to the sample on which the analysis has been done." (Charles Wheelan, "Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data", 2012)

"Statistical inference is the drawing of conclusions about the world (more specifically: about some population) from our sample data." (Geoff Cumming, "Understanding the New Statistics", 2012)

"The four questions of data analysis are the questions of description, probability, inference, and homogeneity. [...] Descriptive statistics are built on the assumption that we can use a single value to characterize a single property for a single universe. […] Probability theory is focused on what happens to samples drawn from a known universe. If the data happen to come from different sources, then there are multiple universes with different probability models.  [...] Statistical inference assumes that you have a sample that is known to have come from one universe." (Donald J Wheeler," Myths About Data Analysis", International Lean & Six Sigma Conference, 2012)

"Mental models represent possibilities, and the theory of mental models postulates three systems of mental processes underlying inference: (0) the construction of an intentional representation of a premise’s meaning – a process guided by a parser; (1) the building of an initial mental model from the intension, and the drawing of a conclusion based on heuristics and the model; and (2) on some occasions, the search for alternative models, such as a counterexample in which the conclusion is false. System 0 is linguistic, and it may be autonomous. System 1 is rapid and prone to systematic errors, because it makes no use of a working memory for intermediate results. System 2 has access to working memory, and so it can carry out recursive processes, such as the construction of alternative models." (Sangeet Khemlania & P.N. Johnson-Laird, "The processes of inference", Argument and Computation, 2012)

"The true foundations of mathematics do not lie in axioms, definitions, and logical inference, which are the foundational elements of formal mathematics. The true foundations of mathematics lie in the minds of mathematicians as they interact with and try to make sense of their world - in their ideas, their intuitions, and their aesthetic sensibility." (William Byers, "Deep Thinking: What Mathematics Can Teach Us About the Mind", 2015)

"Again, classical statistics only summarizes data, so it does not provide even a language for asking [a counterfactual] question. Causal inference provides a notation and, more importantly, offers a solution. As with predicting the effect of interventions [...], in many cases we can emulate human retrospective thinking with an algorithm that takes what we know about the observed world and produces an answer about the counterfactual world." (Judea Pearl & Dana Mackenzie, "The Book of Why: The new science of cause and effect", 2018)

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