14 April 2024

Misquoted: Andrew Lang's Using Statistics for Support rather than Illumination

The quote is from Andrew Lang's speech from 1910 (see [3]) referenced in several other places (see [4], [5], [6]) without specifying the source:

"Politicians use statistics in the same way that a drunk uses lamp-posts - for support rather than illumination." (Andrew Lang, [speech] 1910)

I like this quote because it reflects by a metaphor one of misuses of Statistics, people looking for supporting their beliefs, faith, opinions, conviction and/or biases (by twisting the numbers), rather than for changing their mind (illumination). Here Statistics refer mainly to data obtained by statistical methods, no matter whether they were obtained by simple aggregations or more complex techniques (including data visualization). It applies to politics, business as well as to daily life situations. In extremis, it has to do with cherry-picking or filtering rooted in data.

The Quote Investigator [1] traces back the metaphor behind the quote to Alfred E Housman who in a translation of Marcus Manilius' Astronomicon edition from 1903, where referring to manuscripts (abbreviated MS for singular and MSS for plural) said:

"And critics who treat MS evidence as rational men treat all evidence, and test it by reason and by the knowledge which they have acquired, these are blamed for rashness and capriciousness by gentlemen who use MSS as drunkards use lamp-posts, - not to light them on their way but to dissimulate their instability." [2] (Alfred E Housman, 1903)

Here are the three references mentioned above via the Quote Investigator (though there seem to be other earlier sources whose text is not publicly available):

"I shall try not to use statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts, for support rather than for illumination;" [4] (Francis Yeats-Brown, 1937)

 "For blue books are particularly prone to use their statistics not as a living record of social progress but (to quote a deservedly immortal phrase of Andrew Lang) ‘as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for support rather than for illumination’." [5] (G A N Lowndes, 1937)

"Their case, as has been amply proved by these recapitulations to-night, is a very lame case indeed. The few new facts which the Debate has elicited from that side of the House have been used by them, as was said in another connection, as a drunken man uses lampposts - more for support than for illumination." [6] (McEwene Hansard, [speech] 1937) 

Several similar formulations of the metaphor can be found in other later works:

"Many use statistics as a drunken man uses o lamp-post - for support rather than for illumination." (The Lancet, 1941)

"Many people use statistics as a drunkard uses a street lamp - for support rather than illumination. It is not enough to avoid outright falsehood; one must be on the alert to detect possible distortion of truth. One can hardly pick up a newspaper without seeing some sensational headline based on scanty or doubtful data." (Anna C Rogers, "Graphic Charts Handbook", 1961)

 "Of course, you all know the old story that some people use statistics the way an inebriate uses a lamppost - for support rather than for illumination. It is not really that bad at all times. Statistics are indeed used for illumination, the difficulty is that everybody is trying to illuminate a different point." (Hyman L Lewis, [in Gerhard Bry's "Business Cycle Indicators for States and Regions"] 1961)

"The use of statistical methods to analyze data does not make a study any more 'scientific', 'rigorous', or 'objective'. The purpose of quantitative analysis is not to sanctify a set of findings. Unfortunately, some studies, in the words of one critic, 'use statistics as a drunk uses a street lamp, for support rather than illumination'. Quantitative techniques will be more likely to illuminate if the data analyst is guided in methodological choices by a substantive understanding of the problem he or she is trying to learn about. Good procedures in data analysis involve techniques that help to (a) answer the substantive questions at hand, (b) squeeze all the relevant information out of the data, and (c) learn something new about the world." (Edward R Tufte, "Data Analysis for Politics and Policy", 1974)

"Beware of the man who, like the drunk with a lamppost, uses numbers for support rather than for illumination." (Lawrence Malkin, "The National Debt", 1987)

"It is worth mentioning the statement of a statistician which says 'Statistics should not be used as a blind man uses a lamp-post for support instead of illumination.'" (Padmalochan Hazarika, "A Textbook of Business Statistics", 2007)

"Statistics should not be used as a blind man uses a lamp post for support rather than for illumination." (C B Gupta & Vijay Gupta, "Introduction to Statistical Methods", 2009)

"An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for support rather than for illumination." (Anthony Carpi & Anne Egger, "The Process of Science", 2010) [attributed in current form to Lang]

"Statistics, as such, do not prove anything. They are simply tools in the hands of the statisticians. If a statistician misuses the data, then the blame lies squarely on him and not on the subject matter. A competent doctor can cure a disease by making good use of the medicine but the same medicine in the hands of an incompetent doctor becomes a poison. The fault in this case is not o the medicine but of the unqualified doctor. In the same way, Statistics is never faulty but the fault lies with the users. In fact, Statistics should not be relied upon blindly nor distrusted outright. 'Statistics should not be used as a blind man uses a lamp post for support rather than for illumination, whereas its real purpose is to serve as illumination and not as a support.'" (TR Jain & VK Ohri, "Introductory Microeconomics for Class 11" 2023)

Other attributions of the quote are given to Mark Twain, David Ogilvy and others:

"People commonly use statistics like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support rather than for illumination." (R Preston McAfee, "Competitive Solutions: The Strategist's Toolkit", 2009) [attributed to Mark Twain]

 "I notice increasing reluctance on the part of marketing executives to use judgement; they are coming to rely too much on research and they use it as a drunkard uses a lamp post - for support rather than for illumination." (David Ogilvy, "Confessions of an Advertising Man", 1971) 

Variations of the metaphor entered other fields as well:

"No business can safely run with accounts that are being used principally for support rather than for illumination." (Mark Thomas et al, "The Complete CEO",  2006)

Previous Post <<||>> Next Post 

References:
[1] Quote Investigator (2014) People Use Statistics as a Drunk Uses a Lamppost - For Support Rather Than Illumination (link)
[2] Marcus Manilius translated by Alfred E Housman (1903) Astronomicon
[3] Alan L. Mackay (1977) The Harvest of a Quiet Eye
[4] Francis Yeats-Brown (1937) Lancer at Large
[5] G A N Lowndes (1937) The Silent Social Revolution: An Account of the Expansion of Public Education in England and Wales 1895-1935
[6] McEwene Hansard (1937) speech

No comments:

Post a Comment

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

On Hypothesis Testing III

  "A little thought reveals a fact widely understood among statisticians: The null hypothesis, taken literally (and that’s the only way...