16 November 2024

On Hypothesis Testing III

 "A little thought reveals a fact widely understood among statisticians: The null hypothesis, taken literally (and that’s the only way you can take it in formal hypothesis testing), is always false in the real world. [...] If it is false, even to a tiny degree, it must be the case that a large enough sample will produce a significant result and lead to its rejection. So if the null hypothesis is always false, what’s the big deal about rejecting it?" (Jacob Cohen, "Things I Have Learned (So Far)", American Psychologist, 1990)

"I believe [...] that hypothesis testing has been greatly overemphasized in psychology and in the other disciplines that use it. It has diverted our attention from crucial issues. Mesmerized by a single all-purpose, mechanized, ‘objective’ ritual in which we convert numbers into other numbers and get a yes-no answer, we have come to neglect close scrutiny of where the numbers come from." (Jacob Cohen, "Things I have learned (so far)", American Psychologist 45, 1990)

"Despite the stranglehold that hypothesis testing has on experimental psychology, I find it difficult to imagine a less insightful means of transitting from data to conclusions." (Geoffrey R Loftus, "On the tyranny of hypothesis testing in the social sciences", Contemporary Psychology 36, 1991)

"How has the virtually barren technique of hypothesis testing come to assume such importance in the process by which we arrive at our conclusions from our data?" (Geoffrey R Loftus, "On the tyranny of hypothesis testing in the social sciences", Contemporary Psychology 36, 1991)

"This remarkable state of affairs [overuse of significance testing] is analogous to engineers’ teaching (and believing) that light consists only of waves while ignoring its particle characteristics - and losing in the process, of course, any motivation to pursue the most interesting puzzles and paradoxes in the field." (Geoffrey R Loftus, "On the tyranny of hypothesis testing in the social sciences", Contemporary Psychology 36, 1991)

"Whereas hypothesis testing emphasizes a very narrow question (‘Do the population means fail to conform to a specific pattern?’), the use of confidence intervals emphasizes a much broader question (‘What are the population means?’). Knowing what the means are, of course, implies knowing whether they fail to conform to a specific pattern, although the reverse is not true. In this sense, use of confidence intervals subsumes the process of hypothesis testing." (Geoffrey R Loftus, "On the tyranny of hypothesis testing in the social sciences", Contemporary Psychology 36, 1991)

"After four decades of severe criticism, the ritual of null hypothesis significance testing - mechanical dichotomous decisions around a sacred .05 criterion - still persist. This article reviews the problems with this practice [...] What’s wrong with [null hypothesis significance testing]? Well, among many other things, it does not tell us what we want to know, and we so much want to know what we want to know that, out of desperation, we nevertheless believe that it does!" (Jacob Cohen, "The earth is round (p<.05)", American Psychologist 49, 1994)

"I argued that hypothesis testing is fundamentally inappropriate for ecological risk assessment, that its use has undesirable consequences for environmental protection, and that preferable alternatives exist for statistical analysis of data in ecological risk assessment. The conclusion of this paper is that ecological risk assessors should estimate risks rather than test hypothesis" (Glenn W Suter, "Abuse of hypothesis testing statistics in ecological risk assessment", Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 2, 1996)

"I contend that the general acceptance of statistical hypothesis testing is one of the most unfortunate aspects of 20th century applied science. Tests for the identity of population distributions, for equality of treatment means, for presence of interactions, for the nullity of a correlation coefficient, and so on, have been responsible for much bad science, much lazy science, and much silly science. A good scientist can manage with, and will not be misled by, parameter estimates and their associated standard errors or confidence limits." (Marks Nester, "A Myopic View and History of Hypothesis Testing", 1996)

"Statistical hypothesis testing is commonly used inappropriately to analyze data, determine causality, and make decisions about significance in ecological risk assessment,[...] It discourages good toxicity testing and field studies, it provides less protection to ecosystems or their components that are difficult to sample or replicate, and it provides less protection when more treatments or responses are used. It provides a poor basis for decision-making because it does not generate a conclusion of no effect, it does not indicate the nature or magnitude of effects, it does address effects at untested exposure levels, and it confounds effects and uncertainty[...]. Risk assessors should focus on analyzing the relationship between exposure and effects[...]."  (Glenn W Suter, "Abuse of hypothesis testing statistics in ecological risk assessment", Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 2, 1996)

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