On (Scientific) Bias I

“It is a capital mistake to theorize before you have all the evidence. It biases the judgment.” (Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, “A Study in Scarlet”, 1887)

 “The eye sees only what the mind is prepared to comprehend.” (Robertson Davies, “Tempest-Tost”, 1951)

“Men judge things according to the disposition of their minds, and had rather imagine things than understand them.” (Baruch Spinoza, “Ethics”, Book I) “Science is a way of trying not to fool yourself. The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.” (Richard Feynman) [attributed to]

“But our ways of learning about the world are strongly influenced by the social preconceptions and biased modes of thinking that each scientist must apply to any problem. The stereotype of a fully rational and objective ‘scientific method’, with individual scientists as logical (and interchangeable) robots, is self-serving mythology.” (Stephen Jay Gould, “This View of Life. In the Mind of the Beholder”, “Natural History”, Vol. 103, No. 2, 1994)

“Numbers have undoubted powers to beguile and benumb, but critics must probe behind numbers to the character of arguments and the biases that motivate them.” (Stephen Jay Gould, “An Urchin in the Storm: Essays About Books and Ideas”, 1987)

“The classification of facts, the recognition of their sequence and relative significance is the function of science, and the habit of forming a judgment upon these facts unbiased by personal feeling is characteristic of what may be termed the scientific frame of mind.” (Karl Pearson, “The Grammar of Science”, 1892)

“It may be impossible for human intelligence to comprehend absolute truth, but it is possible to observe Nature with an unbiased mind and to bear truthful testimony of things seen.” (Sir Richard A Gregory, “Discovery, Or, The Spirit and Service of Science”, 1916)

“A scientist has to be neutral in his search for the truth, but he cannot be neutral as to the use of that truth when found. If you know more than other people, you have more responsibility, rather than less.” (Charles P Snow) [attributed to]

“Knowing that one may be subject to bias is one thing; being able to correct it is another.” (Jon Elster, “Explaining Social Behavior: More Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences”, 2007)

“Science is the search for truth, that is the effort to understand the world: it involves the rejection of bias, of dogma, of revelation, but not the rejection of morality.” (Linus C Pauling)

On Statistics: Statistical Thinking

"To a very striking degree our culture has become a Statistical culture. Even a person who may never have heard of an index number is affected [...] by [...] of those index numbers which describe the cost of living. It is impossible to understand Psychology, Sociology, Economics, Finance or a Physical Science without some general idea of the meaning of an average, of variation, of concomitance, of sampling, of how to interpret charts and tables." (Carrol D Wright, 1887)

"I define statistical thinking as thought processes, which recognize that variation is all around us and present in everything we do, all work is a series of interconnected processes, and identifying, characterizing, quantifying, controlling, and reducing variation provide opportunities for improvement." (Ron Snee, “Statistical Thinking and Its Contribution to Total Quality”, The American Statistician, Vol. 44, No. 2 1990) [Link]

“Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write.” (Samuel S Wilks, 1951) [paraphrasing Herbert G Wells]

“Statistical thinking is a general, fundamental, and independent mode of reasoning about data, variation, and chance.” (David S Moore, 1998)

“Statistics at its best provides methodology for dealing empirically with complicated and uncertain information, in a way that is both useful and scientifically valid” (John M Chambers, 1993)

“It is all too easy to notice the statistical sea that supports our thoughts and actions. If that sea loses its buoyancy, it may take a long time to regain the lost support.” (William Kruskal, “Coordination Today: A Disaster or a Disgrace”, The American Statistician, Vol. 37, No. 3, 1983)

“[…] statistical thinking, though powerful, is never as easy or automatic as simply plugging numbers into formulas. In order to use statistical methods appropriately, you need to understand their logic, not just the computing rules.” (Ann E Watkins et al, “Statistics in Action: Understanding a World of Data”, 2007)

"Numbers already rule your world. And you must not be in the dark about this fact. See how some applied scientists use statistical thinking to make our lives better. You will be amazed how you can use numbers to make everyday decisions in your own life." (Kaiser Fung, "Numbers Rule the World", 2010)

"The issue of group differences is fundamental to statistical thinking. The heart of this matter concerns which groups should be aggregated and which shouldn’t." (Kaiser Fung, "Numbers Rule the World", 2010)

"What is so unconventional about the statistical way of thinking? First, statisticians do not care much for the popular concept of the statistical average; instead, they fixate on any deviation from the average. They worry about how large these variations are, how frequently they occur, and why they exist. [...] Second, variability does not need to be explained by reasonable causes, despite our natural desire for a rational explanation of everything; statisticians are frequently just as happy to pore over patterns of correlation. [...] Third, statisticians are constantly looking out for missed nuances: a statistical average for all groups may well hide vital differences that exist between these groups. Ignoring group differences when they are present frequently portends inequitable treatment. [...] Fourth, decisions based on statistics can be calibrated to strike a balance between two types of errors. Predictably, decision makers have an incentive to focus exclusively on minimizing any mistake that could bring about public humiliation, but statisticians point out that because of this bias, their decisions will aggravate other errors, which are unnoticed but serious. [...] Finally, statisticians follow a specific protocol known as statistical testing when deciding whether the evidence fits the crime, so to speak. Unlike some of us, they don’t believe in miracles. In other words, if the most unusual coincidence must be contrived to explain the inexplicable, they prefer leaving the crime unsolved." (Kaiser Fung, "Numbers Rule the World", 2010) 

On Prediction I (Prediction in Statistics)

“No matter how solidly founded a prediction may appear to us, we are never absolutely sure that experiment will not contradict it, if we undertake to verify it . […] It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all.” (Henri Poincaré, “The Foundations of Science”, 1913)

“[…] the statistical prediction of the future from the past cannot be generally valid, because whatever is future to any given past, is in tum past for some future. That is, whoever continually revises his judgment of the probability of a statistical generalization by its successively observed verifications and failures, cannot fail to make more successful predictions than if he should disregard the past in his anticipation of the future. This might be called the ‘Principle of statistical accumulation’.” (Clarence I Lewis, “Mind and the World-Order: Outline of a Theory of Knowledge”, 1929)

“Factual science may collect statistics, and make charts. But its predictions are, as has been well said, but past history reversed.” (John Dewey, “Art as Experience”, 1934)

“To say that observations of the past are certain, whereas predictions are merely probable, is not the ultimate answer to the question of induction; it is only a sort of intermediate answer, which is incomplete unless a theory of probability is developed that explains what we should mean by ‘probable’ and on what ground we can assert probabilities.” (Hans Reichenbach, “The Rise of Scientific Philosophy”, 1951)

“Predictions, prophecies, and perhaps even guidance – those who suggested this title to me must have hoped for such-even though occasional indulgences in such actions by statisticians has undoubtedly contributed to the characterization of a statistician as a man who draws straight lines from insufficient data to foregone conclusions!” (John W Tukey, “Where do We Go From Here?”, Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 55 (289), 1960) [Link]

“Can there be laws of chance? The answer, it would seem should be negative, since chance is in fact defined as the characteristic of the phenomena which follow no law, phenomena whose causes are too complex to permit prediction.” (Félix E Borel, “Probabilities and Life”, 1962)

“[…] “All predictions are statistical, but some predictions have such a high probability that one tends to regard them as certain.” (Marshall J Walker, “The Nature of Scientific Thought”, 1963)

“The moment you forecast you know you’re going to be wrong, you just don’t know when and in which direction.” (Edgar R Fiedler, 1977)

“The aim of every science is foresight (prevoyance). For the laws of established observation of phenomena are generally employed to foresee their succession. All men, however little advanced make true predictions, which are always based on the same principle, the knowledge of the future from the past.” (Auguste Compte)

“The only useful function of a statistician is to make predictions, and thus to provide a basis for action.” (William E Deming)

On Statistics: Statistics and Truth

“A statistical estimate may be good or bad, accurate or the reverse; but in almost all cases it is likely to be more accurate than a casual observer’s impression, and the nature of things can only be disproved by statistical methods.” (Sir Arthur L Bowley, “Elements of Statistics”, 1901)

“The statistics themselves prove nothing; nor are they at any time a substitute for logical thinking. There are […] many simple but not always obvious snags in the data to contend with. Variations in even the simplest of figures may conceal a compound of influences which have to be taken into account before any conclusions are drawn from the data.” (Alfred R Ilersic, “Statistics”, 1959)

“[…] in the statistical world you can multiply ignorance by a constant and get truth.” (Raymond F Jones, “The Non-Statistical Man”, 1964)

“There are two kinds of statistics, the kind you look up and the kind you make up.” (Rex Todhunter Stout, “Death of a Doxy”, 1966)

“When we can’t prove our point through the use of sound reasoning, we fall back upon statistical ‘mumbo jumbo’ to confuse and demoralize our opponents. (Audrey Haber & Richard P. Runyon, “General Statistics”, 1973)

“No matter how much reverence is paid to anything purporting to be ‘statistics’, the term has no meaning unless the source, relevance, and truth are all checked.” (Tom Burnam, “The Dictionary of Misinformation”, 1975)

“Do not trust any statistics you did not fake yourself.” (Winston Churchill)

“I can prove anything by statistics except the truth.” (George Canning)

“In earlier times, they had no statistics, and so they had to fall back on lies.” (Stephen Leacock)

“it is easy to lie with statistics, but easier to lie without them” (Frederick Mosteller)

On Statistics: Statistics Fallacies I

“Always expect to find at least one error when you proofread your own statistics. If you don’t, you are probably making the same mistake twice.” (Cheryl Russell)

“Do not put faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say.” (William W Watt)

"Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable." (Mark Twain)

"I can prove anything by statistics except the truth." (George Canning)

“If the statistics are boring, you've got the wrong numbers.” (Edward Tufte)

"It is easy to lie with statistics. It is hard to tell the truth without it." (Andrejs Dunkels)

“Torture numbers, and they'll confess to anything.” (Gregg Easterbrook)

On Statistics: Statistics and Knowledge

"Statistics are no substitute for judgment." (Henry Clay, 1850)

"Statistics are no substitute for common sense." (Richard N Bialac)

"[…] statistical techniques are tools of thought, and not substitutes for thought." (Abraham Kaplan, "The Conduct of Inquiry", 1964)

"The manipulation of statistical formulas is no substitute for knowing what one is doing." (Hubert M Blalock Jr., "Social Statistics" 2nd Ed., 1972)

"We must be both rational and intellectual, both analytic and imaginative, utilizing both statistics and insight." (Lloyd Reynolds)

"A judicious man uses statistics, not to get knowledge, but to save himself from having ignorance foisted upon him." (Thomas Carlyle)

"The application of efficient statistical procedure has power, but the application of common sense has more." (Jasper Wall)

"Statistics is the refuge of the uninformed." (Audrey Haber & Richard P Runyon, "General Statistics", 1973)

"The fundamental gospel of statistics is to push back the domain of ignorance, prejudice, rule-of-thumb, arbitrary or premature decisions, tradition, and dogmatism and to increase the domain in which decisions are made and principles are formulated on the basis of analyzed quantitative facts." (Robert W Burgess, "The Whole Duty of the Statistical Forecaster", Journal of the American Statistical Association , Vol. 32, No. 200, 1937)

On Statistics: Twisted Statistics

"[…] the question ‘How many legs does a normal man have?’ should be answered by finding a statistical average. And since some men have only one leg, or none, this would lead inevitably to the conclusion that a ‘normal’ man is equipped with one and some fraction legs." (Joseph W Krutch, "Human Nature and the Human Condition", 1959)

"It is a well-known statistical paradox that the average age of women over forty is under forty…" (Morris J Slonim, "Sampling in a Nutshell, 1960)

"The statistics on insanity are that one out of every four people is suffering from some form of mental illness. Think of your three best friends. If they're okay, then it's got to be you." (Rita Mae Brown) [in: Susan Musgrave, "Musgrave Landing: Musings on the Writing Life", 1994)

"It is now proved beyond doubt that smoking is one of the leading causes of statistics." (Fletcher Knebel, 1961)

"Doing applied statistics is never easy, especially if you want to get it right." (Xiao-Li Meng,  [Joint Statistical Meetings], 2005) 

"A Bayesian is one who, vaguely expecting a horse, and catching a glimpse of a donkey, strongly believes he has seen a mule." (Stephen J Senn)

"According to the statistics, a man eats a prune every twenty seconds. I don't know who this fellow is, but I know where to find him." (Morey Amsterdam)

"If a man stands with his left foot on a hot stove and his right foot in a refrigerator, the statistician would say that, on the average, he’s comfortable." (Walter Heller)

"It is proven that the celebration of birthdays is healthy. Statistics show that those people who celebrate the most birthdays become the oldest." (S. den Hartog)

"If there is a 50-50 chance that something can go wrong, then 9 times out of ten it will." (Paul Harvey)

"Statistics show that 66% of clients are cured with psychotherapy; what statistics don't show is that 72% are cured without it." (Thomas Szasz)

"Statistics show that of those who contract the habit of eating, very few survive." (William W Irwin)

"Statistics show that teen pregnancy drops off significantly after age 2." (MaryAnne Tebedo)

"'Statistics' show that 66% of clients are cured with psychotherapy; what statistics don't show is that 72% are cured without it." (Thomas Szasz)