"To a very striking degree our culture has become a Statistical culture. Even a person who may never have heard of an index number is affected [...] by [...] of those index numbers which describe the cost of living. It is impossible to understand Psychology, Sociology, Economics, Finance or a Physical Science without some general idea of the meaning of an average, of variation, of concomitance, of sampling, of how to interpret charts and tables." (Carrol D Wright, 1887)
“Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write.” (Samuel S Wilks, 1951) [paraphrasing Herbert G Wells]
“Statistical thinking is a general, fundamental, and independent mode of reasoning about data, variation, and chance.” (David S Moore, 1998)
“Statistics at its best provides methodology for dealing empirically with complicated and uncertain information, in a way that is both useful and scientifically valid” (John M Chambers, 1993)
“It is all too easy to notice the statistical sea that supports our thoughts and actions. If that sea loses its buoyancy, it may take a long time to regain the lost support.” (William Kruskal, “Coordination Today: A Disaster or a Disgrace”, The American Statistician, Vol. 37, No. 3, 1983)
“[…] statistical thinking, though powerful, is never as easy or automatic as simply plugging numbers into formulas. In order to use statistical methods appropriately, you need to understand their logic, not just the computing rules.” (Ann E Watkins et al, “Statistics in Action: Understanding a World of Data”, 2007)
"Numbers already rule your world. And you must not be in the dark about this fact. See how some applied scientists use statistical thinking to make our lives better. You will be amazed how you can use numbers to make everyday decisions in your own life." (Kaiser Fung, "Numbers Rule the World", 2010)
"The issue of group differences is fundamental to statistical thinking. The heart of this matter concerns which groups should be aggregated and which shouldn’t." (Kaiser Fung, "Numbers Rule the World", 2010)
"What is so unconventional about the statistical way of thinking? First, statisticians do not care much for the popular concept of the statistical average; instead, they fixate on any deviation from the average. They worry about how large these variations are, how frequently they occur, and why they exist. [...] Second, variability does not need to be explained by reasonable causes, despite our natural desire for a rational explanation of everything; statisticians are frequently just as happy to pore over patterns of correlation. [...] Third, statisticians are constantly looking out for missed nuances: a statistical average for all groups may well hide vital differences that exist between these groups. Ignoring group differences when they are present frequently portends inequitable treatment. [...] Fourth, decisions based on statistics can be calibrated to strike a balance between two types of errors. Predictably, decision makers have an incentive to focus exclusively on minimizing any mistake that could bring about public humiliation, but statisticians point out that because of this bias, their decisions will aggravate other errors, which are unnoticed but serious. [...] Finally, statisticians follow a specific protocol known as statistical testing when deciding whether the evidence fits the crime, so to speak. Unlike some of us, they don’t believe in miracles. In other words, if the most unusual coincidence must be contrived to explain the inexplicable, they prefer leaving the crime unsolved." (Kaiser Fung, "Numbers Rule the World", 2010)
No comments:
Post a Comment