“[…] the statistical prediction of the future from the past cannot be generally valid, because whatever is future to any given past, is in tum past for some future. That is, whoever continually revises his judgment of the probability of a statistical generalization by its successively observed verifications and failures, cannot fail to make more successful predictions than if he should disregard the past in his anticipation of the future. This might be called the ‘Principle of statistical accumulation’.” (Clarence I Lewis, “Mind and the World-Order: Outline of a Theory of Knowledge”, 1929)
“Factual science may collect statistics, and make charts. But its predictions are, as has been well said, but past history reversed.” (John Dewey, “Art as Experience”, 1934)
“Predictions, prophecies, and perhaps even guidance – those who suggested this title to me must have hoped for such-even though occasional indulgences in such actions by statisticians has undoubtedly contributed to the characterization of a statistician as a man who draws straight lines from insufficient data to foregone conclusions!” (John W Tukey, “Where do We Go From Here?”, Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 55 (289), 1960) [Link]
“[…] “All predictions are statistical, but some predictions have such a high probability that one tends to regard them as certain.” (Marshall J Walker, “The Nature of Scientific Thought”, 1963)
“The aim of every science is foresight (prevoyance). For the laws of established observation of phenomena are generally employed to foresee their succession. All men, however little advanced make true predictions, which are always based on the same principle, the knowledge of the future from the past.” (Auguste Compte)
“Factual science may collect statistics, and make charts. But its predictions are, as has been well said, but past history reversed.” (John Dewey, “Art as Experience”, 1934)
“To say that observations of the past are certain, whereas predictions are merely probable, is not the ultimate answer to the question of induction; it is only a sort of intermediate answer, which is incomplete unless a theory of probability is developed that explains what we should mean by ‘probable’ and on what ground we can assert probabilities.” (Hans Reichenbach, “The Rise of Scientific Philosophy”, 1951)
“Predictions, prophecies, and perhaps even guidance – those who suggested this title to me must have hoped for such-even though occasional indulgences in such actions by statisticians has undoubtedly contributed to the characterization of a statistician as a man who draws straight lines from insufficient data to foregone conclusions!” (John W Tukey, “Where do We Go From Here?”, Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 55 (289), 1960) [Link]
“Can there be laws of chance? The answer, it would seem should be negative, since chance is in fact defined as the characteristic of the phenomena which follow no law, phenomena whose causes are too complex to permit prediction.” (Félix E Borel, “Probabilities and Life”, 1962)
“[…] “All predictions are statistical, but some predictions have such a high probability that one tends to regard them as certain.” (Marshall J Walker, “The Nature of Scientific Thought”, 1963)
“The moment you forecast you know you’re going to be wrong, you just don’t know when and in which direction.” (Edgar R Fiedler, 1977)
“The aim of every science is foresight (prevoyance). For the laws of established observation of phenomena are generally employed to foresee their succession. All men, however little advanced make true predictions, which are always based on the same principle, the knowledge of the future from the past.” (Auguste Compte)
“The only useful function of a statistician is to make predictions, and thus to provide a basis for action.” (William E Deming)
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