Alfred R Ilersic - Collected Quotes

"Diagrams are sometimes used, not merely to convey several pieces of information such as several time series on one chart, but also to provide visual evidence of relationships between the series." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"Everybody has some idea of the meaning of the term 'probability' but there is no agreement among scientists on a precise definition of the term for the purpose of scientific methodology. It is sufficient for our purpose, however, if the concept is interpreted in terms of relative frequency, or more simply, how many times a particular event is likely to occur in a large population." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"However informative and well designed a statistical table may be, as a medium for conveying to the reader an immediate and clear impression of its content, it is inferior to a good chart or graph. Many people are incapable of comprehending large masses of information presented in tabular form; the figures merely confuse them. Furthermore, many such people are unwilling to make the effort to grasp the meaning of such data. Graphs and charts come into their own as a means of conveying information in easily comprehensible form." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"In brief, the greatest care must be exercised in using any statistical data, especially when it has been collected by another agency. At all times, the statistician who uses published data must ask himself, by whom were the data collected, how and for what purpose?" (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"It is a good rule to remember that the first step in analyzing any statistical data, whether it be culled from an official publication or a report prepared by someone else, is to check the definitions used for classification." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"It is helpful to remember when dealing with index numbers that they are specialized tools and as such are most efficient and useful when properly used. A screwdriver is a poor substitute for a chisel, although it may be used as such. All index numbers are designed to measure particular groups of related changes." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"Most people tend to think of values and quantities expressed in numerical terms as being exact figures; much the same as the figures which appear in the trading account of a company. It therefore comes as a considerable surprise to many to learn that few published statistics, particularly economic and sociological data, are exact. Many published figures are only approximations to the real value, while others are estimates of aggregates which are far too large to be measured with precision." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"Numerical data, which have been recorded at intervals of time, form what is generally described as a time series. [...] The purpose of analyzing time series is not always the determination of the trend by itself. Interest may be centered on the seasonal movement displayed by the series and, in such a case, the determination of the trend is merely a stage in the process of measuring and analyzing the seasonal variation. If a regular basic or under- lying seasonal movement can be clearly established, forecasting of future movements becomes rather less a matter of guesswork and more a matter of intelligent forecasting." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"Often, in order to simplify statistical tables, the practice of rounding large figures and totals is resorted to. Where the constituent figures in a table together with their aggregate have been so treated, a discrepancy between the rounded total and the true sum of the rounded constituent figures frequently arises. Under no circumstances should the total be adjusted to what appears to be the right answer. A note to the table to the effect that the figures have been rounded, e.g. to the nearest 1,000, is all that is necessary. The same remark applies to percentage equivalents of the constituent parts of a total; it they do not add to exactly 100 per cent, leave them." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"Poor statistics may be attributed to a number of causes. There are the mistakes which arise in the course of collecting the data, and there are those which occur when those data are being converted into manageable form for publication. Still later, mistakes arise because the conclusions drawn from the published data are wrong. The real trouble with errors which arise during the course of collecting the data is that they are the hardest to detect." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"Statistical method consists of two main operations; counting and analysis. [...] The statistician has no use for information that cannot be expressed numerically, nor generally speaking, is he interested in isolated events or examples. The term 'data  is itself plural and the statistician is concerned with the analysis of aggregates. " (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"The averaging of percentages themselves requires care, where the percentages are each computed on different bases, i.e. different quantities. The average is not derived by aggregating the percentages and dividing them. Instead of this, each percentage must first be multiplied by its base to bring out its relative significance to the other percentages and to the total. The sum of the resultant products is then divided by the sum of the base values [...], not merely the number of items." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"The rounding of individual values comprising an aggregate can give rise to what are known as unbiased or biased errors. [...]The biased error arises because all the individual figures are reduced to the lower 1,000 [...] The unbiased error is so described since by rounding each item to the nearest 1,000 some of the approximations are greater and some smaller than the original figures. Given a large number of such approximations, the final total may therefore correspond very closely to the true or original total, since the approximations tend to offset each other. [...] With biased approximations, however, the errors are cumulative and their aggregate increases with the number of items in the series." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"The simplest way of indicating that figures are not given precisely to the last unit is to express them to the nearest 100 or 1,000; or in some cases to the nearest 100,000 or million. [...] The widespread desire for precision is reflected in many reports on economic trends which quote figures in great detail, rather than emphasizing the trends and movements reflected in the figures." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"The statistician has no use for information that cannot be expressed numerically, nor generally speaking, is he interested in isolated events or examples. The term ' data ' is itself plural and the statistician is concerned with the analysis of aggregates." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"The statistics themselves prove nothing; nor are they at any time a substitute for logical thinking. There are […] many simple but not always obvious snags in the data to contend with. Variations in even the simplest of figures may conceal a compound of influences which have to be taken into account before any conclusions are drawn from the data." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"There are good statistics and bad statistics; it may be doubted if there are many perfect data which are of any practical value. It is the statistician's function to discriminate between good and bad data; to decide when an informed estimate is justified and when it is not; to extract the maximum reliable information from limited and possibly biased data." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"This is the essential characteristic of a logarithmic scale. Any given increase, regardless of its absolute size, is related to a given base quantity. Thus, a perfectly straight line on such a graph denotes a constant percentage rate of increase, and not a constant absolute increase. It is the slope of the line or curve which is significant in such a graph. The steeper the slope, whether it be downwards or upwards, the more marked is the rate of change." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"This type of graph possesses a number of advantages. It is possible to graph a number of series of widely differing magnitudes on a single chart and bring out any relationship between their movements. How- ever wide the amplitude of the fluctuations in the series, a logarithmic scale reduces them to manageable size on a single sheet of graph paper, whereas, on a normal scale, it might prove impossible to get the larger fluctuations on to a single chart, except by so reducing the scale that all the other smaller movements in the series are almost obliterated." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"Time series analysis often requires more knowledge of the data and relevant information about their background than it does of statistical techniques. Whereas the data in some other fields may be controlled so as to increase their representativeness, economic data are so changeable in their nature that it is usually impossible to sort out the separate effects of the various influences. Attempts to isolate cyclical, seasonal and irregular, or random movements, are made primarily in the hope that some underlying pattern of change over time may be revealed."  (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"When using estimated figures, i.e. figures subject to error, for further calculation make allowance for the absolute and relative errors. Above all, avoid what is known to statisticians as 'spurious' accuracy. For example, if the arithmetic Mean has to be derived from a distribution of ages given to the nearest year, do not give the answer to several places of decimals. Such an answer would imply a degree of accuracy in the results of your calculations which are quite un- justified by the data. The same holds true when calculating percentages." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"While it is true to assert that much statistical work involves arithmetic and mathematics, it would be quite untrue to suggest that the main source of errors in statistics and their use is due to inaccurate calculations." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)