31 December 2017

On Averages I

“It is difficult to understand why statisticians commonly limit their inquiries to Averages, and do not revel in more comprehensive views. Their souls seem as dull to the charm of variety as that of the native of one of our flat English counties, whose retrospect of Switzerland was that, if its mountains could be thrown into its lakes, two nuisances would be got rid of at once. An Average is but a solitary fact, whereas if a single other fact be added to it, an entire Normal Scheme, which nearly corresponds to the observed one, starts potentially into existence.” (Sir Francis Galton, “Natural Inheritance”, 1889)

“Statistics may rightly be called the science of averages. […] Great numbers and the averages resulting from them, such as we always obtain in measuring social phenomena, have great inertia. […] It is this constancy of great numbers that makes statistical measurement possible. It is to great numbers that statistical measurement chiefly applies.” (Sir Arthur L Bowley, “Elements of Statistics”, 1901)

“[…] the new mathematics is a sort of supplement to language, affording a means of thought about form and quantity and a means of expression, more exact, compact, and ready than ordinary language. The great body of physical science, a great deal of the essential facts of financial science, and endless social and political problems are only accessible and only thinkable to those who have had a sound training in mathematical analysis, and the time may not be very remote when it will be understood that for complete initiation as an efficient citizen of one of the new great complex world wide states that are now developing, it is as necessary to be able to compute, to think in averages and maxima and minima, as it is now to be able to read and to write.” (Herbert G Wells, “Mankind In the Making”, 1906)

“Of itself an arithmetic average is more likely to conceal than to disclose important facts; it is the nature of an abbreviation, and is often an excuse for laziness.” (Arthur L Bowley, “The Nature and Purpose of the Measurement of Social Phenomena”, 1915)

“Averages are like the economic man; they are inventions, not real. When applied to salaries they hide gaunt poverty at the lower end.” (Julia Lathrop, 1919)

“Scientific laws, when we have reason to think them accurate, are different in form from the common-sense rules which have exceptions: they are always, at least in physics, either differential equations, or statistical averages.” (Bertrand A Russell, “The Analysis of Matter”, 1927)

"An average is a single value which is taken to represent a group of values. Such a representative value may be obtained in several ways, for there are several types of averages. […] Probably the most commonly used average is the arithmetic average, or arithmetic mean." (John R Riggleman & Ira N Frisbee, "Business Statistics", 1938)

"Because they are determined mathematically instead of according to their position in the data, the arithmetic and geometric averages are not ascertained by graphic methods." (John R Riggleman & Ira N Frisbee, "Business Statistics", 1938)

“Myth is more individual and expresses life more precisely than does science. Science works with concepts of averages which are far too general to do justice to the subjective variety of an individual life.” (Carl G Jung, “Memories, Dreams, Reflections”, 1963)

“While the individual man is an insoluble puzzle, in the aggregate he becomes a mathematical certainty. You can, for example, never foretell what anyone man will be up to, but you can say with precision what an average number will be up to. Individuals vary, but percentages remain constant. So says the statistician.” (Sir Arthur C Doyle)

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