12 January 2019

On Models: On Mathematical Models (1970-1979)

"This distinction between regular and catastrophic points is obviously somewhat arbitrary because it depends on the fineness of the observation used. One might object, not without reason, that each point is catastrophic to sufficiently sensitive observational techniques. This is why the distinction is an idealization, to be made precise by a mathematical model, and to this end we summarize some ideas of qualitative dynamics." (René F Thom, "Structural Stability and Morphogenesis", 1972)

"[...] a system is represented by a mathematical model which may take many forms, such as algebraic equations, finite state machines, difference equations, ordinary differential equations, partial differential equations, and functional equations. The system model may be uncertain, as the mathematical model may not be known completely." (Fred C Scweppe, "Uncertain dynamic systems", 1973)

"Modeling is definitely the most important and critical problem. If the mathematical model is not valid, any subsequent analysis, estimation, or control study is meaningless. The development of the model in a convenient form can greatly reduce the complexity of the actual studies. (Fred C Scweppe, "Uncertain dynamic systems", 1973)

"System theory is a tool which engineers use to help them design the 'best' system to do the job that must be done. A dominant characteristic of system theory is the interest in the analysis and design (synthesis) of systems from an input-output point of view. System theory uses mathematical manipulation of a mathematical model to help design the actual system." (Fred C Scweppe, "Uncertain dynamic systems", 1973)

"The pre-eminence of astronomy rests on the peculiarity that it can be treated mathematically; and the progress of physics, and most recently biology, has hinged equally on finding formulations of their laws that can be displayed as mathematical models." (Jacob Bronowski, "The Ascent of Man", 1973)

"Specifically, it seems to me preferable to use, systematically: 'random' for that which is the object of the theory of probability […]; I will therefore say random process, not stochastic process. 'stochastic' for that which is valid 'in the sense of the calculus of probability': for instance; stochastic independence, stochastic convergence, stochastic integral; more generally, stochastic property, stochastic models, stochastic interpretation, stochastic laws; or also, stochastic matrix, stochastic distribution, etc. As for 'chance', it is perhaps better to reserve it for less technical use: in the familiar sense of'by chance', 'not for a known or imaginable reason', or (but in this case we should give notice of the fact) in the sense of, 'with equal probability' as in 'chance drawings from an urn', 'chance subdivision', and similar examples." (Bruno de Finetti, "Theory of Probability", 1974)

"Thus, the construction of a mathematical model consisting of certain basic equations of a process is not yet sufficient for effecting optimal control. The mathematical model must also provide for the effects of random factors, the ability to react to unforeseen variations and ensure good control despite errors and inaccuracies." (Yakov Khurgin, "Did You Say Mathematics?", 1974)

"Today, science in a number of cases is able to indicate the rules or, as the accepted term is, the strategy for making the best (or a sufficiently good) decision. Under other circumstances, there is no such strategy, but there are certain recommendations on how to pose questions in a more reasonable fashion, how to construct a suitable mathematical model of the situation and how to study the model." (Yakov Khurgin, "Did You Say Mathematics?", 1974)

"The accounting methods based on mathematical models, the use of computers for computations and information data processing make up only one part of the control mechanism, another part is the control structure." (Leonid V Kantorovich, "Mathematics in Economics: Achievements, Difficulties, Perspectives", [Nobel lecture] 1975)

"A cognitive map is a particular kind of mathematical model of a person's belief system; in actual practice, cognitive maps are derived from assertions of beliefs. [...] Like all mathematical models, a cognitive map can be useful in two quite distinct ways: as a normative model and as an empirical model. Interpreted as a normative model, a cognitive map makes no claims to reflect accurately how a person deduces new beliefs from old ones, how he makes decisions, and so on, but instead claims to show how he should do these things. Interpreted as an empirical model, a cognitive map claims to indicate how a person actually does perform certain cognitive operations, in the sense that the results of the various operations that are possible with the model do, in fact, correspond to the behavior of the per son who is being modeled." (Robert M Axelrod, "Structure of Decision: The cognitive maps of political elites", 1976)

"A mathematical model is a tremendous simplification of what it represents. But it does not simplify everything about its object, or there would be nothing left to model. Instead, it simplifies everything that is not to be examined, and leaves in the model what is to be examined." (Robert M Axelrod, "Structure of Decision: The cognitive maps of political elites", 1976)

"To use set theory in the way it is used by modern mathematics, however, it is not at all necessary to force one's imagination and try to picture actual infinity. The 'sets' which are used in mathematics are simply symbols, linguistic objects used to construct models of reality. The postulated attributes of these objects correspond partially to intuitive concepts of aggregateness and potential infinity; therefore intuition helps to some extent in the development of set theory, but sometimes it also deceives. Each new mathematical (linguistic) object is defined as a 'set' constructed in some particular way. This definition has no significance for relating the object to the external world, that is for interpreting it: it is needed only to coordinate it with the frame of mathematics, to mesh the internal wheels of mathematical models. So the language of set theory is in fact a metalanguage in relation to the language of contentual mathematics, and in this respect it is similar to the language of logic. If logic is the theory of proving mathematical statements, then set theory is the theory of constructing mathematical linguistic objects." (Valentin F Turchin, "The Phenomenon of Science: a cybernetic approach to human evolution", 1977)

"A mathematical model is any complete and consistent set of mathematical equations which are designed to correspond to some other entity, its prototype. The prototype may be a physical, biological, social, psychological or conceptual entity, perhaps even another mathematical model." (Rutherford Aris, "Mathematical Modelling", 1978)

"A model […] is a story with a specified structure: to explain this catch phrase is to explain what a model is. The structure is given by the logical and mathematical form of a set of postulates, the assumptions of the model. The structure forms an uninterpreted system, in much the way the postulates of a pure geometry are now commonly regarded as doing. The theorems that follow from the postulates tell us things about the structure that may not be apparent from an examination of the postulates alone." (Allan Gibbard & Hal R. Varian, "Economic Models", The Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 75, No. 11, 1978)

"The unfoldings are called catastrophes because each of them has regions where a dynamic system can jump suddenly from one state to another, although the factors controlling the process change continuously. Each of the seven catastrophes represents a pattern of behavior determined only by the number of control factors, not by their nature or by the interior mechanisms that connect them to the system's behavior. Therefore, the elementary catastrophes can be models for a wide variety of processes, even those in which we know little about the quantitative laws involved." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"Game theory is a collection of mathematical models designed to study situations involving conflict and/or cooperation. It allows for a multiplicity of decision makers who may have different preferences and objectives. Such models involve a variety of different solution concepts concerned with strategic optimization, stability, bargaining, compromise, equity and coalition formation." (Notices of the American Mathematical Society Vol. 26 (1), 1979)

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