David Stirzaker - Collected Quotes

"By its very nature a model cannot include all the details of the reality it seeks to represent, for then it would be just as hard to comprehend and describe as the reality we want to model. At best, our model should give a reasonable picture of some small part of reality. It has to be a simple (even crude) description; and we must always be ready to scrap or improve a model if it fails in this task of accurate depiction. That having been said, old models are often still useful." (David Stirzaker, "Probability and Random Variables: A Beginner's Guide", 1999) 

"Conversely, there are few features of life, the universe, or anything, in which chance is not in some way crucial. Nor is this merely some abstruse academic point; assessing risks and taking chances are inescapable facets of everyday existence. It is a trite maxim to say that life is a lottery; it would be more true to say that life offers a collection of lotteries that we can all, to some extent, choose to enter or avoid. And as the information at our disposal increases, it does not reduce the range of choices but in fact increases them." (David Stirzaker, "Probability and Random Variables: A Beginner's Guide", 1999)

"From the moment we first roll a die in a children's board game, or pick a card (any card), we start to learn what probability is. But even as adults, it is not easy to tell what it is, in the general way." (David Stirzaker, "Probability and Random Variables: A Beginner's Guide", 1999)

"Models form extraordinarily powerful and economical ways of thinking about the world. In fact they are often so good that the model is confused with reality." (David Stirzaker, "Probability and Random Variables: A Beginner's Guide", 1999)

"The whole point of probability is to discuss uncertain eventualities before they occur. After this event, things are completely different." (David Stirzaker, "Probability and Random Variables: A Beginner's Guide", 1999)

"We cannot really have a perfectly shuffled pack of perfect cards; this 'collection of equally likely hands' is actually a fiction. We create the idea, and then use the rules of arithmetic to calculate the required chances. This is characteristic of all mathematics, which concerns itself only with rules defining the behaviour of entities which are themselves undefined (such as 'numbers' or 'points')." (David Stirzaker, "Probability and Random Variables: A Beginner's Guide", 1999)