19 December 2020

On Randomness VII (Events I)

"The very events which in their own nature appear most capricious and uncertain, and which in any individual case no attainable degree of knowledge would enable us to foresee, occur, when considerable numbers are taken into account, with a degree of regularity approaching to mathematical." (John S Mills, "A System of Logic", 1862)

"To every event defined for the original random walk there corresponds an event of equal probability in the dual random walk, and in this way almost every probability relation has its dual." (William Feller, "An Introduction To Probability Theory And Its Applications", 1950)

"Perhaps randomness is not merely an adequate description for complex causes that we cannot specify. Perhaps the world really works this way, and many events are uncaused in any conventional sense of the word." (Stephen J Gould, "Hen's Teeth and Horse's Toes", 1983).

"If you perceive the world as some place where things happen at random - random events over which you have sometimes very little control, sometimes fairly good control, but still random events - well, one has to be able to have some idea of how these things behave. […] People who are not used to statistics tend to see things in data - there are random fluctuations which can sometimes delude them - so you have to understand what can happen randomly and try to control whatever can be controlled. You have to expect that you are not going to get a clean-cut answer. So how do you interpret what you get? You do it by statistics." (Lucien LeCam, [interview] 1988)

"Randomness is the very stuff of life, looming large in our everyday experience. […] The fascination of randomness is that it is pervasive, providing the surprising coincidences, bizarre luck, and unexpected twists that color our perception of everyday events." (Edward Beltrami, "What is Random?: Chaos and Order in Mathematics and Life", 1999)

"The subject of probability begins by assuming that some mechanism of uncertainty is at work giving rise to what is called randomness, but it is not necessary to distinguish between chance that occurs because of some hidden order that may exist and chance that is the result of blind lawlessness. This mechanism, figuratively speaking, churns out a succession of events, each individually unpredictable, or it conspires to produce an unforeseeable outcome each time a large ensemble of possibilities is sampled."  (Edward Beltrami, "Chaos and Order in Mathematics and Life", 1999)

"Randomness is a difficult notion for people to accept. When events come in clusters and streaks, people look for explanations and patterns. They refuse to believe that such patterns - which frequently occur in random data - could equally well be derived from tossing a coin. So it is in the stock market as well." (Didier Sornette, "Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical events in complex financial systems", 2003)

"[…] we would like to observe that the butterfly effect lies at the root of many events which we call random. The final result of throwing a dice depends on the position of the hand throwing it, on the air resistance, on the base that the die falls on, and on many other factors. The result appears random because we are not able to take into account all of these factors with sufficient accuracy. Even the tiniest bump on the table and the most imperceptible move of the wrist affect the position in which the die finally lands. It would be reasonable to assume that chaos lies at the root of all random phenomena." (Iwo Białynicki-Birula & Iwona Białynicka-Birula, "Modeling Reality: How Computers Mirror Life", 2004)

"A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. […] The Black Swan idea is based on the structure of randomness in empirical reality. [...] the Black Swan is what we leave out of simplification." (Nassim N Taleb, "The Black Swan", 2007)

"Regression toward the mean. That is, in any series of random events an extraordinary event is most likely to be followed, due purely to chance, by a more ordinary one." (Leonard Mlodinow, "The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives", 2008)

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