20 January 2025

On Chance: Definitions

"Chance is necessity hidden behind a veil." (Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach, Aphorisms, 1880/1893)

"Chance is only the measure of our ignorance." (Henri Poincaré," The Foundations of Science", 1913)

"[...] the conception of chance enters in the very first steps of scientific activity in virtue of the fact that no observation is absolutely correct. I think chance is a more fundamental conception that causality; for whether in a concrete case, a cause-effect relation holds or not can only be judged by applying the laws of chance to the observation." (Max Born, 1949)

"Chance is just as real as causation; both are modes of becoming. The way to model a random process is to enrich the mathematical theory of probability with a model of a random mechanism. In the sciences, probabilities are never made up or 'elicited' by observing the choices people make, or the bets they are willing to place.  The reason is that, in science and technology, interpreted probability exactifies objective chance, not gut feeling or intuition. No randomness, no probability." (Mario Bunge, "Chasing Reality: Strife over Realism", 2006)

"Chance is as relentless as necessity." (Simon Blackburn, Think, 1999) 

"Whether we shuffle cards or roll dice, chance is only a result of our human lack of deftness: we don't have enough control to immobilize a die at will or to individually direct the cards in a deck. The comparison is an important one nonetheless, and highlights the limits of this method of creating chance - it doesn't matter who rolls the dice, but we wouldn't let just anyone shuffle the cards." (Ivar Ekeland, "The Broken Dice, and Other Mathematical Tales of Chance", 1993)

"That randomness gives rise to innovation and diversity in nature is echoed by the notion that chance is also the source of invention in the arts and everyday affairs in which naturally occurring processes are balanced between tight organization, where redundancy is paramount, and volatility, in which little order is possible. One can argue that there is a difference in kind between the unconscious, and sometimes conscious, choices made by a writer or artist in creating a string of words or musical notes and the accidental succession of events taking place in the natural world. However, it is the perception of ambiguity in a string that matters, and not the process that generated it, whether it be man-made or from nature at large." (Edward Beltrami, "What is Random?: Chaos and Order in Mathematics and Life", 1999)

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On Chance: Definitions

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