"Whatever the system, adaptive change depends upon feedback loops, be it those provided by natural selection or those of individual reinforcement. In all cases, then, there must be a process of trial and error and a mechanism of comparison. […] By superposing and interconnecting many feedback loops, we (and all other biological systems) not only solve particular problems but also form habits which we apply to the solution of classes of problems." (Gregory Bateson, "Steps to an Ecology of Mind", 1972)
"When we examine this suggestion, we see that it is no more than a formal acknowledgement of a problem, the problem of how (by what institutional arrangement, by what organization of affairs) the equilibrium prices are to be discovered. Repeated trial and error, while the market stands in suspense awaiting the outcome, is not a practical resort. The number of distinct trials, even if confined to discrete steps of price and quantity, would be so immense that the necessary 'market day' would extend beyond human life-times [... The] theoretical ideal applies to mutually isolated days or moments, each to be treated as perfectly self-contained and looking to no yesterday and no tomorrow. But the real market is dealing with goods inherited from yesterday, and in means of production whose products will not be ready till tomorrow. Meanwhile the non-economic circumstances are changing and rendering each successive equilibrium obsolete." (George L S Shackle, "Epistemics and Economics", 1972)
"We know the laws of trial and error, of large numbers and probabilities. We know that these laws are part of the mathematical and mechanical fabric of the universe, and that they are also at play in biological processes. But, in the name of the experimental method and out of our poor knowledge, are we really entitled to claim that everything happens by chance, to the exclusion of all other possibilities?" (Albert Claude, "The Coming Age of the Cell", Nobel Prize Lecture] 1974)
"Survival machines that can simulate the future are one jump ahead of survival machines that who can only learn of the basis of trial and error. The trouble with overt trial is that it takes time and energy. The trouble with overt error is that it is often fatal. [...] The evolution of the capacity to simulate seems to have culminated in subjective consciousness. Why this should have happened is, to me, the most profound mystery facing modern biology." (Richard Dawkins, "The Selfish Gene Source: The Selfish Gene", 1976)
"In the process of the evolution of life, as far as we know, the total mass of living matter has always been and is now increasing and growing more complex in its organization. To increase the complexity of the organization of biological forms, nature operates by trial and error. Existing forms are reproduced in many copies, but these are not identical to the original. Instead they differ from it by the presence of small random variations." (Valentin F Turchin, "The Phenomenon of Science: A cybernetic approach to human evolution", 1977)
"I believe people can solve complex problems eventually. By repeated trial and error they will get there; but they need a long time. At this point I agree with Herbert Simon. People do not learn immediately, as those rational expectations models seem to imply. I don't believe that. The statement that assumptions do not matter is nonsense. It is funny. Yes, I assume people are consistent in their behavior. I assume that not because I believe everybody actually is, but because I believe, on the average, you do not get too far from it." (Franco Modigliani, "Conversations with Economists", 1983)
"Heuristics are rules of thumb that help constrain the problem in certain ways (in other words they help you to avoid falling back on blind trial and error), but they don't guarantee that you will find a solution. Heuristics are often contrasted with algorithms that will guarantee that you find a solution - it may take forever, but if the problem is algorithmic you will get there. However, heuristics are also algorithms." (S Ian Robertson, "Problem Solving", 2001)
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