About Mathematicians (1900-1909)

"The mathematician, carried along on his flood of symbols, dealing apparently with purely formal truths, may still reach results of endless importance for our description of the physical universe." (Karl Pearson, “The Grammar of Science”, 1900)

"Mathematicians do not study objects, but the relations between objects; to them it is a matter of indifference if these objects are replaced by others, provided that the relations do not change. Matter does not engage their attention, they are interested in form alone." (Henri Poincaré, "Science and Hypothesis", 1901)

"Mathematicians therefore proceed 'by construction', they 'construct' more complicated combinations. When they analyse these combinations, these aggregates, so to speak, into their primitive elements, they see the relations of the elements and deduce the relations of the aggregates themselves. The process is purely analytical, but it is not a passing from the general to the particular, for the aggregates obviously cannot be regarded as more particular than their elements." (Henri Poincaré, "Science and Hypothesis", 1902)

"The apodictic quality of mathematical thought, the certainty and correctness of its conclusions, are due, not to a special mode of ratiocination, but to the character of the concepts with which it deals. What is that distinctive characteristic? I answer: precision, sharpness, completeness of definition. But how comes your mathematician by such completeness? There is no mysterious trick involved; some ideas admit of such precision, others do not; and the mathematician is one who deals with those that do." (Cassius J Keyser, "The Universe and Beyond", Hibbert Journal Vol. 3, 1904–1905)

"To think the thinkable - that is the mathematician's aim." (Cassius J Keyser, "The Universe and Beyond", Hibbert Journal Vol. 3, 1904-1905)

“A mathematical theorem and its demonstration are prose. But if the mathematician is overwhelmed with the grandeur and wondrous harmony of geometrical forms, of the importance and universal application of mathematical maxims, or, of the mysterious simplicity of its manifold laws which are so self-evident and plain and at the same time so complicated and profound, he is touched by the poetry of his science; and if he but understands how to give expression to his feelings, the mathematician turns poet, drawing inspiration from the most abstract domain of scientific thought.” (Paul Carus, “Friedrich Schiller”, 1905)

"The chief end of mathematical instruction is to develop certain powers of the mind, and among these the intuition is not the least precious. By it the mathematical world comes in contact with the real world, and even if pure mathematics could do without it, it would always be necessary to turn to it to bridge the gulf between symbol and reality. The practician will always need it, and for one mathematician there are a hundred practicians. However, for the mathematician himself the power is necessary, for while we demonstrate by logic, we create by intuition; and we have more to do than to criticize others’ theorems, we must invent new ones, this art, intuition teaches us." (Henri Poincaré, "The Value of Science", 1905)

"The great mathematician, like the great poet or great naturalist or great administrator, is born." (Cassius J Keyser, "Lectures on Science, Philosophy and Art", 1908)

About Mathematicians (1875-1899)

“It is the constant aim of the mathematician to reduce all his expressions to their lowest terms, to retrench every superfluous word and phrase, and to condense the Maximum of meaning into the Minimum of language.” (James J Sylvester, 1877)

"The union of the mathematician with the poet, fervor with measure, passion with correctness, this surely is the ideal." (William James, "Clifford's Lectures and Essays", 1879)

"[...] it is true that a mathematician who is not somewhat of a poet, will never be a perfect mathematician." (Karl Weierstrass, [Letter to Sofia Kovalevskaya] 1883)

"A scientist worthy of the name, above all a mathematician, experiences in his work the same impression as an artist; his pleasure is as great and of the same nature.... we work not only to obtain the positive results which, according to the profane, constitute our one and only affection, as to experience this esthetic emotion and to convey it to others who are capable of experiencing it." (Henri Poincaré, "Notice sur Halphen", Journal de l'École Polytechnique, 1890)

"There is probably no other science which presents such different appearances to one who cultivates it and one who does not, as mathematics. To [the noncultivator] it is ancient, venerable, and complete; a body of dry, irrefutable, unambiguous reasoning. To the mathematician, on the other hand, his science is yet in the purple bloom of vigorous youth, everywhere stretching out after the 'attainable but unattained', and full of the excitement of nascent thoughts; its logic is beset with ambiguities, and its analytic processes, like Bunyan's road, have a quagmire on one side and a deep ditch on the other, and branch off into innumerable by-paths that end in a wilderness." (Charles H Chapman, Bulletin of the New York Mathematical Society 2, 1892)

 

“With our notion of the essence of intuition, an intuitive treatment of figurative representations will tend to yield a certain general guide on which mathematical laws apply and how their general proof may be structured. However, true proof will only be obtained if the given figures are replaced with figures generated by laws based on the axioms and these are then taken to carry through the general train of thought in an explicit case. Dealing with sensate objects gives the mathematician an impetus and an idea of the problems to be tackled, but it does not pre-empt the mathematical process itself. (Felix Klein, “Nicht-Euklidische Geometrie I: Vorlesung gehalten während des Wintersemesters 1889–90”, 1892)

 

"The contemplation of the various steps by which mankind has come into possession of the vast stock of mathematical knowledge can hardly fail to interest the mathematician. He takes pride in the fact that his science, more than any other, is an exact science, and that hardly anything ever done in mathematics has proved to be useless." (Florian Cajori, "A History of Mathematics", 1893)

 

"Mathematics is the most abstract of all the sciences. For it makes no external observations, nor asserts anything as a real fact. When the mathematician deals with facts, they become for him mere ‘hypotheses’; for with their truth he refuses to concern himself. The whole science of mathematics is a science of hypotheses; so that nothing could be more completely abstracted from concrete reality." (Charles S Peirce, "The Regenerated Logic", The Monist Vol. 7 (1), 1896)

 

"The union of the mathematician with the poet, fervor with measure, passion with correctness, this surely is the ideal." (William James, "Clifford's Lectures and Essays", 1897) 

"Mathematicians will do well to observe that a reasonable acquaintance with theoretical physics at its present stage of development, to mention only such broad subjects as electricity, elastics, hydrodynamics, etc., is as much as most of us can keep permanently assimilated. It should also be remembered that the step from the formal elegance of theory to the brute arithmetic of the special case is always humiliating, and that this labor usually falls to the lot of the physicist." (Carl Barus, "The Mathematical Theory of the Top", 1898)

About Mathematicians (1850-1874)

"The prominent reason why a mathematician can be judged by none but mathematicians, is that he uses a peculiar language. The language of mathesis is special and untranslatable. In its simplest forms it can be translated, as, for instance, we say a right angle to mean a square corner. But you go a little higher in the science of mathematics, and it is impossible to dispense with a peculiar language." (Thomas Hill, "The Imagination in Mathematics", The North American Review Vol. 85 (176), 1857)

"May not Music be described as the Mathematic of sense, Mathematic as the Music of the reason? the soul of each the same! Thus the musician feels Mathematic, the mathematician thinks Music - Music the dream, Mathematic the working life - each to receive its consummation from the other when the human intelligence, elevated to its perfect type […]" (James J Sylvester, "On Newton’s Rule for the Discovery of Imaginary Roots", 1865)

"Besides accustoming the student to demand complete proof, and to know when he has not obtained it, mathematical studies are of immense benefit to his education by habituating him to precision. It is one of the peculiar excellencies of mathematical discipline, that the mathematician is never satisfied with à peu près. He requires the exact truth." (John S Mill, "An Examination of Sir William Hamilton's Philosophy", 1865)

"It has long been a complaint against mathematicians that they are hard to convince: but it is a far greater disqualification both for philosophy, and for the affairs of life, to be too easily convinced; to have too low a standard of proof. The only sound intellects are those which, in the first instance, set their standards of proof high. Practice in concrete affairs soon teaches them to make the necessary abatement: but they retain the consciousness, without which there is no sound practical reasoning, that in accepting inferior evidence because there is no better to be had, they do not by that acceptance raise it to completeness." (John S Mill, "An Examination of Sir William Hamilton's Philosophy", 1865)

"Mathematicians may flatter themselves that they possess new ideas which mere human language is as yet unable to express." (James C Maxwell, "A Dynamical Theory of the Electromagnetic Field", 1865)

"Isolated, so-called ‘pretty theorems’ have even less value in the eyes of a modern mathematician than the discovery of a new ‘pretty flower’ has to the scientific botanist, though the layman finds in these the chief charm of the respective Sciences." (Hermann Hankel, "Die Entwickelung der Mathematik in den letzten Jahrhunderten", 1869)

"The mathematician starts with a few propositions, the proof of which is so obvious that they are called self-evident, and the rest of his work consists of subtle deductions from them. The teaching of languages, at any rate as ordinarily practised, is of the same general nature: authority and tradition furnish the data, and the mental operations are deductive." (Thomas H Huxley, 1869)

"It is, so to speak, a scientific tact, which must guide mathematicians in their investigations, and guard them from spending their forces on scientifically worthless problems and abstruse realms, a tact which is closely related to esthetic tact and which is the only thing in our science which cannot be taught or acquired, and is yet the indispensable endowment of every mathematician." (Hermann Hankel, "Die Entwickelung der Mathematik in den letzten Jahrhunderten", 1869)

"Mathematical training is almost purely deductive. The mathematician starts with a few simple propositions, the proof of which is so obvious that they are called self-evident, and the rest of his work consists of subtle deductions from them." (Thomas H Huxley, "Scientific Education: Notes of an After Dinner Speech", Macmillan’s Magazine Vol. XX, 1869)

"The Mathematician deals with two properties of objects only, number and extension, and all the inductions he wants have been formed and finished ages ago. He is now occupied with nothing but deductions and verification." (Thomas H Huxley, "Lay Sermons, Addresses and Reviews", 1872)

"So intimate is the union between Mathematics and Physics that probably by far the larger part of the accessions to our mathematical knowledge have been obtained by the efforts of mathematicians to solve the problems set to them by experiment, and to create for each successive class phenomena a new calculus or a new geometry, as the case might be, which might prove not wholly inadequate to the subtlety of nature. Sometimes the mathematician has been before the physicist, and it has happened that when some great and new question has occurred to the experimentalist or the observer, he has found in the armory of the mathematician the weapons which he needed ready made to his hand. But much oftener, the questions proposed by the physicist have transcended the utmost powers of the mathematics of the time, and a fresh mathematical creation has been needed to supply the logical instrument requisite to interpret the new enigma." (Henry J S Smith, Nature, Volume 8, 1873) 

"As a science progresses, its power of foresight rapidly increases, until the mathematician in his library acquires the power of anticipating nature, and predicting what will happen in circumstances which the eye of man has never examined." (William S Jevons, "The Principles of Science: A Treatise on Logic and Scientific Method", 1874)

Paul Ernest - Collected Quotes

"Logicism is the school of thought that regards pure mathematics as a part of logic. […] If all mathematics can be expressed in purely logical terms and proved from logical principles alone, then the certainty of mathematical knowledge can be reduced to that of logic. Logic was considered to provide a certain foundation for truth." (Paul Ernest, "The Philosophy of Mathematics Education", 1991)

"Mathematical truth ultimately depends on an irreducible set of assumptions, which are adopted without demonstration. But to qualify as true knowledge, the assumptions require a warrant for their assertion. There is no valid warrant for mathematical knowledge other than demonstration or proof. Therefore the assumptions are beliefs, not knowledge, and remain open to challenge, and thus to doubt." (Paul Ernest, "The Philosophy of Mathematics Education", 1991)

"The absolutist view of mathematical knowledge is that it consists of certain and unchallengeable truths. According to this view, mathematical knowledge is made up of absolute truths, and represents the unique realm of certain knowledge, apart from logic and statements true by virtue of the meanings of terms […]" (Paul Ernest, "The Philosophy of Mathematics Education", 1991)

"This absolutist view of mathematical knowledge is based on two types of assumptions: those of mathematics, concerning the assumption of axioms and definitions, and those of logic concerning the assumption of axioms, rules of inference and the formal language and its syntax. These are local or micro-assumptions. There is also the possibility of global or macro-assumptions, such as whether logical deduction suffices to establish all mathematical truths." (Paul Ernest, "The Philosophy of Mathematics Education", 1991)

"The philosophy of mathematics is the branch of philosophy whose task is to reflect on, and account for the nature of mathematics. [...] The role of the philosophy of mathematics is to provide a systematic and absolutely secure foundation for mathematical knowledge, that is for mathematical truth." (Paul Ernest, "The Philosophy of Mathematics Education", 1991)

"Despite being partly familiar to all, because of these contradictory aspects, mathematics remains an enigma and a mystery at the heart of human culture. It is both the language of the everyday world of commercial life and that of an unseen and perfect virtual reality. It includes both free-ranging ethereal speculation and rock-hard certainty. How can this mystery be explained? How can it be unraveled? The philosophy of mathematics is meant to cast some light on this mystery: to explain the nature and character of mathematics. However this philosophy can be purely technical, a product of the academic love of technique expressed in the foundations of mathematics or in philosophical virtuosity. Too often the outcome of philosophical inquiry is to provide detailed answers to the how questions of mathematical certainty and existence, taking for granted the received ideology of mathematics, but with too little attention to the deeper why questions." (Paul Ernest, "Social Constructivism as a Philosophy of Mathematics", 1998)

"It is often the case in mathematics that the definition of truth is assumed to be clear-cut, unambiguous, and unproblematic. While this is often justifiable as a simplifying assumption, the fact is that it is incorrect and that the meaning of the concept of truth in mathematics has changed significantly over time." (Paul Ernest, "Social Constructivism as a Philosophy of Mathematics", 1998)

"The philosophy of mathematics is neither mathematics nor a subset of mathematics. It is a field of study which reflects on mathematics from the outside. It is one of a number of metatheories of mathematics, which also include the sociology, history, psychology, and anthropology of mathematics as well as mathematics education." (Paul Ernest, "Social Constructivism as a Philosophy of Mathematics", 1998)

"The social constructivist thesis is that mathematics is a social construction, a cultural product, fallible like any other branch of knowledge."  (Paul Ernest, "Social Constructivism as a Philosophy of Mathematics", 1998)

Ernest Rutherford - Collected Quotes

"The march of discovery has been so rapid that it has been difficult even for those directly engaged in the investigations to grasp at once the full significance of the facts that have been brought to light."(Ernest Rutherford, "Radioactive Transformations", 1906)

"It seems to me that you would have to assume that the electron knows beforehand where it is going to stop." (Ernest Rutherford, [Letter to Niels Bohr] 1913)

"Experiment without imagination or imagination without recourse to experiment, can accomplish little, but for effective progress, a happy blend of these two powers is necessary." (Ernest Rutherford, "The Electrical Structure of Matter", Science Vol. 58 (1499), 1923)

"[…] the process of scientific discovery may be regarded as a form of art. This is best seen in the theoretical aspects of Physical Science. The mathematical theorist builds up on certain assumptions and according to well understood logical rules, step by step, a stately edifice, while his imaginative power brings out clearly the hidden relations between its parts. A well-constructed theory is in some respects undoubtedly an artistic production." (Ernest Rutherford, 1932)

"Science is divided into two categories, physics and stamp-collecting." (Ernest Rutherford, "The Social Function of Science", 1939)

"An alleged scientific discovery has no merit unless it can be explained to a barmaid." (Ernest Rutherford [attributed by Albert Einstein])

"If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment." (Ernest Rutherford)

"It is not in the nature of things for any one man to make a sudden violent discovery; science goes step by step, and every man depends on the work of his predecessors. When you hear of a sudden unexpected discovery - a bolt from the blue, as it were - you can always be sure that it has grown up by the influence of one man on another, and it is this mutual influence which makes the enormous possibility of scientific advance. Scientists are not dependent on the ideas of a single man, but on the combined wisdom of thousands of men, all thinking of the same problem, and each doing his little bit to add to the great structure of knowledge which is gradually being erected." (Ernest Rutherford)

John H Holland - Collected Quotes

"Because the individual parts of a complex adaptive system are continually revising their ('conditioned') rules for interaction, each part is embedded in perpetually novel surroundings (the changing behavior of the other parts). As a result, the aggregate behavior of the system is usually far from optimal, if indeed optimality can even be defined for the system as a whole. For this reason, standard theories in physics, economics, and elsewhere, are of little help because they concentrate on optimal end-points, whereas complex adaptive systems 'never get there'. They continue to evolve, and they steadily exhibit new forms of emergent behavior." (John H Holland, "Complex Adaptive Systems", Daedalus Vol. 121 (1), 1992)

"The systems' basic components are treated as sets of rules. The systems rely on three key mechanisms: parallelism, competition, and recombination. Parallelism permits the system to use individual rules as building blocks, activating sets of rules to describe and act upon the changing situations. Competition allows the system to marshal its rules as the situation demands, providing flexibility and transfer of experience. This is vital in realistic environments, where the agent receives a torrent of information, most of it irrelevant to current decisions. The procedures for adaptation - credit assignment and rule discovery - extract useful, repeatable events from this torrent, incorporating them as new building blocks. Recombination plays a key role in the discovery process, generating plausible new rules from parts of tested rules. It implements the heuristic that building blocks useful in the past will prove useful in new, similar contexts." (John H Holland, "Complex Adaptive Systems", Daedalus Vol. 121 (1), 1992) 

"'Doing science' , particularly the synthesis of disparate ideas, is not as arcane as it is often made out to be. Discipline and taste play a vital role, but the activity is familiar to anyone who has made some effort to be creative." (John H Holland," Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity", 1995)

"Even though these complex systems differ in detail, the question of coherence under change is the central enigma for each." (John H Holland," Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity", 1995)

"Evolution continually innovates, but at each level it conserves the elements that are recombined to yield the innovations." (John H Holland," Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity", 1995)

If we are to understand the interactions of a large number of agents, we must first be able to describe the capabilities of individual agents." (John H Holland," Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity", 1995)

"Model building is the art of selecting those aspects of a process that are relevant to the question being asked. As with any art, this selection is guided by taste, elegance, and metaphor; it is a matter of induction, rather than deduction. High science depends on this art." (John H Holland," Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity", 1995)

"[…] nonlinear interactions almost always make the behavior of the aggregate more complicated than would be predicted by summing or averaging."  (John H Holland," Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity", 1995)

"The multiplier effect is a major feature of networks and flows. It arises regardless of the particular nature of the resource, be it goods, money, or messages." (John H Holland," Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity", 1995)

"With theory, we can separate fundamental characteristics from fascinating idiosyncrasies and incidental features. Theory supplies landmarks and guideposts, and we begin to know what to observe and where to act."(John H Holland," Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity", 1995) 

"It may not be obvious at first, but the study of emergence and model-building go hand in hand. The essence of model-building is shearing away detail to get at essential elements. A model, by concentrating on selected aspects of the world, makes possible the prediction and planning that reveal new possibilities. That is exactly the problem we face in trying to develop a scientific understanding of emergence." (John H Holland, "Emergence" , Philosophica 59, 1997)

"Shearing away detail is the very essence of model building. Whatever else we require, a model must be simpler than the thing modeled. In certain kinds of fiction, a model that is identical with the thing modeled provides an interesting device, but it never happens in reality. Even with virtual reality, which may come close to this literary identity one day, the underlying model obeys laws which have a compact description in the computer - a description that generates the details of the artificial world." (John H Holland, "Emergence" , Philosophica 59, 1997)

"Mathematical notation is for the scientist what musical notation is for the composer." (John Holland, "Emergence: From Chaos to Order", 1998)

"Strategy in complex systems must resemble strategy in board games. You develop a small and useful tree of options that is continuously revised based on the arrangement of pieces and the actions of your opponent. It is critical to keep the number of options open. It is important to develop a theory of what kinds of options you want to have open." (John H Holland, [presentation] 2000)

🪷On Mind: Mental Models XLVI

"Things which do not now exist in the mind itself, can only be perceived, remembered, or imagined, by means of the ideas or images in the mind, which are the immediate objects of perception, remembrance, and imagination." (Thomas Reid, "An Inquiry into the Human Mind on the Principles", 1764)

"There are conceptions which may be called fancy pictures. They are commonly called creatures of fancy, or of imagination. They are not the copies of any original that exists, but are originals themselves […]. They were conceived by their creators, and may be conceived by others, but they never existed. We do not ascribe the qualities of true or false to them, because they are not accompanied with any belief, nor do they imply any affirmation or negation." (Thomas Reid,"Essays on the Intellectual Powers of Man", 1785)

"For our purpose it is not necessary that they [images] should be in conformity with the things in any other respect whatever. As a matter of fact, we do not know, nor have we any means of knowing, whether our conceptions of things are in conformity with them in any other than this one fundamental respect."  (Heinrich Hertz, "The Principles of Mechanics Presented in a New Form", 1894)

"The problem of the transformation of images is of great importance in the theory of economic development. […] The problem here is that of the initiation and imitation of superior processes. Both these phenomena require transformation of the image; a new process always starts as a new image, as a new idea. The process itself is merely a form of transcription of the new image." (Kenneth E Boulding, "The Image: Knowledge in life and society", 1956)

"Discourses are ways of referring to or constructing knowledge about a particular topic of practice: a cluster (or formation) of ideas, images and practices, which provide ways of talking about, forms of knowledge and conduct associated with, a particular topic, social activity or institutional site in society. These discursive formations, as they are known, define what is and is not appropriate in our formulation of, and our practices in relation to, a particular subject or site of social activity." (Stuart Hall, "Representation: Cultural Representations and Signifying Practices", 1997)

"A collective mental map functions first of all as a shared memory. Various discoveries by members of the collective are registered and stored in this memory, so that the information will remain available for as long as necessary. The storage capacity of this memory is in general much larger than the capacities of the memories of the individual participants. This is because the shared memory can potentially be inscribed over the whole of the physical surroundings, instead of being limited to a single, spatially localized nervous system. Thus, a collective mental map differs from cultural knowledge, such as the knowledge of a language or a religion, which is shared among different individuals in a cultural group but is limited by the amount of knowledge a single individual can bear in mind." (Francis Heylighen, "Collective Intelligence and its Implementation on the Web", 1999)

"The three basic mechanisms of averaging, feedback and division of labor give us a first idea of a how a CMM [Collective Mental Map] can be developed in the most efficient way, that is, how a given number of individuals can achieve a maximum of collective problem-solving competence. A collective mental map is developed basically by superposing a number of individual mental maps. There must be sufficient diversity among these individual maps to cover an as large as possible domain, yet sufficient redundancy so that the overlap between maps is large enough to make the resulting graph fully connected, and so that each preference in the map is the superposition of a number of individual preferences that is large enough to cancel out individual fluctuations. The best way to quickly expand and improve the map and fill in gaps is to use a positive feedback that encourages individuals to use high preference paths discovered by others, yet is not so strong that it discourages the exploration of new paths." (Francis Heylighen, "Collective Intelligence and its Implementation on the Web", 1999)

"Because feeling does not have a form; it has to be treated like an inner sensation which can only be understood in terms of the images it triggers. These images do not, however, represent the feeling as such, for they are independently existing representations or fantasies that are merely associated at the moment of pleasure or pain." (Angelika Rauch, "The Hieroglyph of Tradition: Freud, Benjamin, Gadamer, Novalis, Kant", 2000)

"[...] information feedback about the real world not only alters our decisions within the context of existing frames and decision rules but also feeds back to alter our mental models. As our mental models change we change the structure of our systems, creating different decision rules and new strategies. The same information, processed and interpreted by a different decision rule, now yields a different decision. Altering the structure of our systems then alters their patterns of behavior. The development of systems thinking is a double-loop learning process in which we replace a reductionist, narrow, short-run, static view of the world with a holistic, broad, long-term, dynamic view and then redesign our policies and institutions accordingly." (John D Sterman, "Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

"To avoid policy resistance and find high leverage policies requires us to expand the boundaries of our mental models so that we become aware of and understand the implications of the feedbacks created by the decisions we make. That is, we must learn about the structure and dynamics of the increasingly complex systems in which we are embedded." (John D Sterman, "Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world", 2000)

On Chance (1950-1974)

"Historically, the original purpose of the theory of probability was to describe the exceedingly narrow domain of experience connected with games of chance, and the main effort was directed to the calculation of certain probabilities." (William Feller, "An Introduction To Probability Theory And Its Applications", 1950)

"The painful experience of many gamblers has taught us the lesson that no system of betting is successful in improving the gambler's chances. If the theory of probability is true to life, this experience must correspond to a provable statement." (William Feller, "An Introduction To Probability Theory And Its Applications", 1950)

"In a sense, of course, probability theory in the form of the simple laws of chance is the key to the analysis of warfare; […] My own experience of actual operational research work, has however, shown that its is generally possible to avoid using anything more sophisticated. […] In fact the wise operational research worker attempts to concentrate his efforts in finding results which are so obvious as not to need elaborate statistical methods to demonstrate their truth. In this sense advanced probability theory is something one has to know about in order to avoid having to use it." (Patrick M S Blackett, "Operations Research", Physics Today, 1951)

"Indeed, the laws of chance are just as necessary as the causal laws themselves." (David Bohm, "Causality and Chance in Modern Physics", 1957)

"Chaos is but unperceived order; it is a word indicating the limitations of the human mind and the paucity of observational facts. The words ‘chaos’, ‘accidental’, ‘chance’, ‘unpredictable’ are conveniences behind which we hide our ignorance." (Harlow Shapley, "Of Stars and Men: Human Response to an Expanding Universe", 1958)

"If simple perfect laws uniquely rule the universe, should not pure thought be capable of uncovering this perfect set of laws without having to lean on the crutches of tenuously assembled observations? True, the laws to be discovered may be perfect, but the human brain is not. Left on its own, it is prone to stray, as many past examples sadly prove. In fact, we have missed few chances to err until new data freshly gleaned from nature set us right again for the next steps. Thus pillars rather than crutches are the observations on which we base our theories; and for the theory of stellar evolution these pillars must be there before we can get far on the right track." (Erwin Schrödinger & Martin Schwarzschild, "Structure and Evolution of the Stars", 1958)

"Random chance was not a sufficient explanation of the Universe - in fact, random chance was not sufficient to explain random chance; the pot could not hold itself." (Robert A Heinlein, "Stranger in a Strange Land", 1961)

"Can there be laws of chance? The answer, it would seem should be negative, since chance is in fact defined as the characteristic of the phenomena which follow no law, phenomena whose causes are too complex to permit prediction." (Félix E Borel, "Probabilities and Life", 1962)

"The equanimity of your average tosser of coins depends upon a law, or rather a tendency, or let us say a probability, or at any rate a mathematically calculable chance, which ensures that he will not upset himself by losing too much nor upset his opponent by winning too often." (Tom Stoppard, "Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead", 1967)

"Chance is commonly viewed as a self-correcting process in which a deviation in one direction induces a deviation in the opposite direction to restore the equilibrium. In fact, deviations are not 'corrected' as a chance process unfolds, they are merely diluted." (Amos Tversky, "Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases", 1974)

"We know the laws of trial and error, of large numbers and probabilities. We know that these laws are part of the mathematical and mechanical fabric of the universe, and that they are also at play in biological processes. But, in the name of the experimental method and out of our poor knowledge, are we really entitled to claim that everything happens by chance, to the exclusion of all other possibilities?" (Albert Claude, "The Coming Age of the Cell", Nobel Prize Lecture] 1974)

On Chance (1900-1949)

"If we seek a cause wherever we perceive symmetry, it is not that we regard a symmetrical event as less possible than the others, but, since this event ought to be the effect of a regular cause or that of chance, the first of these suppositions is more probable than the second." (Pierre-Simon de Laplace, "Philosophical Essay on Probabilities", 1902)

"The theory of chance consists in reducing all the events of the same kind to a certain number of cases equally possible, that is to say, to such as we may be equally undecided about in regard to their existence, and in determining the number of cases favorable to the event whose probability is sought." (Pierre-Simon de Laplace, "Philosophical Essay on Probabilities", 1902)

"The facts of greatest outcome are those we think simple; may be they really are so, because they are influenced only by a small number of well-defined circumstances, may be they take on an appearance of simplicity because the various circumstances upon which they depend obey the laws of chance and so come to mutually compensate." (Henri Poincaré, "The Foundations of Science", 1913)

"Whatever the progress of human knowledge, there will always be room for ignorance, hence for chance and probability." (Emile Borel, Le hasard [Chance], 1914)

"In games of chance, in the problems of insurance, and in the molecular processes we find events repeating themselves again and again. They are mass phenomena or repetitive events." (Richard von Mises, Probability, Statistics And Truth, 1928)

"It is easy without any very profound logical analysis to perceive the difference between a succession of favorable deviations from the laws of chance, and on the other hand, the continuous and cumulative action of these laws. It is on the latter that the principle of Natural Selection relies." (Sir Ronald A Fisher, "The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection", 1930)

"By applying the statistical method we cannot foretell the behavior of an individual in a crowd. We can only foretell the chance, the probability, that it will behave in some particular manner." (Albert Einstein  & Leopold Infeld, The Evolution of Physics, 1938)

"The fundamental difference between engineering with and without statistics boils down to the difference between the use of a scientific method based upon the concept of laws of nature that do not allow for chance or uncertainty and a scientific method based upon the concepts of laws of probability as an attribute of nature." (Walter A Shewhart, 1940)

"The ignorant suppose that infinite number of drawings require an infinite amount of time; in reality it is quite enough that time to be infinitely subdivisible, as is the case in the famous parable of the Tortoise and the Hare. This infinitude harmonizes in an admirable manner with the sinuous numbers of Chance and of the Celestial Archetype of the Lottery, adored by the Platonists." (Jorge L Borges, The Babylon Lottery, 1941)

"The mathematical concept of chance, or probability, must not be confused with the psychological notion of likelihood. If a coin upon being tossed six times in succession has come up 'heads' each of the six times, we may be impelled to feel that upon the seventh toss it is 'more likely' to turn 'tails' in view of the six previous heads; but this is only an emotional reaction and not a mathematical probability. Mathematically [...] on any single throw, the chances are even for heads or tails, irrespective of what the previous trials may have been. In the long run, the greater the number of trials, the more nearly equal will become the number of heads and tails." (William L Schaaf, "Mathematics For Everyday Use", 1942)

"[In quantum mechanics] we have the paradoxical situation that observable events obey laws of chance, but that the probability for these events itself spreads according to laws which are in all essential features causal laws." (Max Born, Natural Philosophy of Cause and Chance, 1949)

"[...] the conception of chance enters in the very first steps of scientific activity in virtue of the fact that no observation is absolutely correct. I think chance is a more fundamental conception that causality; for whether in a concrete case, a cause-effect relation holds or not can only be judged by applying the laws of chance to the observation." (Max Born, 1949)

"When a scientific theory is firmly established and confirmed, it changes its character and becomes a part of the metaphysical background of the age: a doctrine is transformed into a dogma." (Max Born, "Natural Philosophy of Cause and Chance", 1949)

On Chance (1800-1899)

"Probability has reference partly to our ignorance, partly to our knowledge [..] The theory of chance consists in reducing all the events of the same kind to a certain number of cases equally possible, that is to say, to such as we may be equally undecided about in regard to their existence, and in determining the number of cases favorable to the event whose probability is sought. The ratio of this number to that of all cases possible is the measure of this probability, which is thus simply a fraction whose number is the number of favorable cases and whose denominator is the number of all cases possible." (Pierre-Simon Laplace, "Philosophical Essay on Probabilities", 1814)

"The measure of the probability of an event is the ratio of the number of cases favourable to that event, to the total number of cases favourable or contrary, and all equally possible, or all of which have the same chance." (Siméon-Denis Poisson, "Recherches sur la Probabilités des Jugemens" ["An Investigation of the Laws of Thought"], 1837)

"In the fields of observation chance favors only the prepared mind." (Louis Pasteur, [lecture] 1854)

"As many more individuals of each species are born than can possibly survive; and as, consequently, there is a frequently recurring struggle for existence, it follows that any being, if it vary however slightly in any manner profitable to itself, under the complex and sometimes varying conditions of life, will have a better chance of surviving, and thus be naturally selected. From the strong principle of inheritance, any selected variety will tend to propagate its new and modified form." (Charles Darwin, "On the Origin of Species", 1859)

"Chance, if such a thing exists, is far-seeing." (Victor Hugo, "The Toilers of the Sea", 1866)

"I cannot look at the universe as the result of blind chance, yet I can see no evidence of beneficent design, or indeed of design of any kind, in the details." (Charles Darwin, [Letter to Joseph D Hooker, 1870)

"Our conception of chance is one of law and order in large numbers; it is not that idea of chaotic incidence which vexed the mediaeval mind." (Karl Pearson, "The Chances of Death", 1895)