On Chance (1900-1949)

"If we seek a cause wherever we perceive symmetry, it is not that we regard a symmetrical event as less possible than the others, but, since this event ought to be the effect of a regular cause or that of chance, the first of these suppositions is more probable than the second." (Pierre-Simon de Laplace, "Philosophical Essay on Probabilities", 1902)

"The theory of chance consists in reducing all the events of the same kind to a certain number of cases equally possible, that is to say, to such as we may be equally undecided about in regard to their existence, and in determining the number of cases favorable to the event whose probability is sought." (Pierre-Simon de Laplace, "Philosophical Essay on Probabilities", 1902)

"The facts of greatest outcome are those we think simple; may be they really are so, because they are influenced only by a small number of well-defined circumstances, may be they take on an appearance of simplicity because the various circumstances upon which they depend obey the laws of chance and so come to mutually compensate." (Henri Poincaré, "The Foundations of Science", 1913)

"Whatever the progress of human knowledge, there will always be room for ignorance, hence for chance and probability." (Emile Borel, Le hasard [Chance], 1914)

"In games of chance, in the problems of insurance, and in the molecular processes we find events repeating themselves again and again. They are mass phenomena or repetitive events." (Richard von Mises, Probability, Statistics And Truth, 1928)

"It is easy without any very profound logical analysis to perceive the difference between a succession of favorable deviations from the laws of chance, and on the other hand, the continuous and cumulative action of these laws. It is on the latter that the principle of Natural Selection relies." (Sir Ronald A Fisher, "The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection", 1930)

"By applying the statistical method we cannot foretell the behavior of an individual in a crowd. We can only foretell the chance, the probability, that it will behave in some particular manner." (Albert Einstein  & Leopold Infeld, The Evolution of Physics, 1938)

"The fundamental difference between engineering with and without statistics boils down to the difference between the use of a scientific method based upon the concept of laws of nature that do not allow for chance or uncertainty and a scientific method based upon the concepts of laws of probability as an attribute of nature." (Walter A Shewhart, 1940)

"The ignorant suppose that infinite number of drawings require an infinite amount of time; in reality it is quite enough that time to be infinitely subdivisible, as is the case in the famous parable of the Tortoise and the Hare. This infinitude harmonizes in an admirable manner with the sinuous numbers of Chance and of the Celestial Archetype of the Lottery, adored by the Platonists." (Jorge L Borges, The Babylon Lottery, 1941)

"[In quantum mechanics] we have the paradoxical situation that observable events obey laws of chance, but that the probability for these events itself spreads according to laws which are in all essential features causal laws." (Max Born, Natural Philosophy of Cause and Chance, 1949)

"[...] the conception of chance enters in the very first steps of scientific activity in virtue of the fact that no observation is absolutely correct. I think chance is a more fundamental conception that causality; for whether in a concrete case, a cause-effect relation holds or not can only be judged by applying the laws of chance to the observation." (Max Born, 1949)

"When a scientific theory is firmly established and confirmed, it changes its character and becomes a part of the metaphysical background of the age: a doctrine is transformed into a dogma." (Max Born, "Natural Philosophy of Cause and Chance", 1949)