18 October 2026

🪸On Systems Thinking: On Large Scale


"Almost everyone now acknowledges that theory and experiment, model making, theory construction and linguistics all go together, and that the successful development of a science of behavior depends upon a ‘total approach’ in which, given that the computer ‘is the only large-scale universal model’ that we possess, ‘we may expect to follow the prescription of Simon and construct our models - or most of them - in the form of computer programs’." (Frank H George,"Cognition", 1962) [attributed to Alan M Turing] 

“As our mental eye penetrates into smaller and smaller distances and shorter and shorter times, we find nature behaving so entirely differently from what we observe in visible and palpable bodies of our surroundings that no model shaped after our large-scale experiences can ever be ‘true’. A complete satisfactory model of this type is not only practically inaccessible, but not even thinkable. Or, to be precise, we can, of course, think of it, but however we think it, it is wrong; not perhaps quite as meaningless as a ‘triangular circle’, but more so than a ‘winged lion’.” (Erwin Schrödinger, “Science and Humanism”, 1952)

"The word model is used as a noun, adjective, and verb, and in each instance it has a slightly different connotation. As a noun 'model' is a representation in the sense in which an architect constructs a small-scale model of a building or a physicist a large-scale model of an atom. As an adjective 'model' implies a degree or perfection or idealization, as in reference to a model home, a model student, or a model husband. As a verb 'to model' means to demonstrate, to reveal, to show what a thing is like." (Russell L Ackoff, "Scientific method: optimizing applied research decisions", 1962)

"Simple rules can have complex consequences. This simple rule has such a wealth of implications that it is worth examining in detail. It is the far from self-evident guiding principle of reductionism and of most modern investigations into cosmic complexity. Reductionism will not be truly successful until physicists and cosmologists demonstrate that the large-scale phenomena of the world arise from fundamental physics alone. This lofty goal is still out of reach. There is uncertainty not only in how physics generates the structures of our world but also in what the truly fundamental rules of physics are." (William Poundstone, "The Recursive Universe", 1985)

"The large-scale computer models of systems ecology do not fit under the heading of holism at all. Rather they are forms of large-scale reductionism: the objects of study are the naively given 'parts' -abundances or biomasses of populations. No new objects of study arise at the community level. The research is usually conducted on a single system - a lake, forest, or prairie - and the results are measurements of and projections for that lake, forest, or prairie, with no attempts to find the properties of lakes, forests, or prairies in general. Such modeling requires vast amounts of data for its simulations, and much of the scientific effort goes into problems of estimation." (Richard Levins & Richard C Lewontin, "The Dialectical Biologist", 1985)

"The evident power of simple heuristics […] teaches us the important lesson that global behavior patterns, and social organization, can emerge out of local interactions. Organisms do not necessarily need to have an over-riding plan nor do they require awareness of the large-scale. Grand patterns and processes can emerge as the nett effect of small-scale, local behavior."(David G Green, 2000) 

"The really crucial question in multi-object systems is whether local interactions do grow into large-scale patterns." (David G Green, 2000)

"Statistical mechanics is the science of predicting the observable properties of a many-body system by studying the statistics of the behaviour of its individual constituents, be they atoms, molecules, photons etc. It provides the link between macroscopic and microscopic states. […] classical thermodynamics. This is a subject dealing with the very large. It describes the world that we all see in our daily lives, knows nothing about atoms and molecules and other very small particles, but instead treats the universe as if it were made up of large-scale continua. […] quantum mechanics. This is the other end of the spectrum from thermodynamics; it deals with the very small. It recognises that the universe is made up of particles: atoms, electrons, protons and so on. One of the key features of quantum mechanics, however, is that particle behaviour is not precisely determined (if it were, it would be possible to compute, at least in principle, all past and future behaviour of particles, such as might be expected in a classical view). Instead, the behaviour is described through the language of probabilities." (A Mike Glazer & Justin S Wark, "Statistical Mechanics: A survival guide", 2001)

"Physics deals with both the large and the small. Its domain of study includes the interior of the nucleus of an atom as well as the exterior of a galaxy. It is, therefore, natural for the scope of physical theories to switch between global, or large-scale, and local, or small-scale regimes. Such an interplay between the local and the global has existed ever since Newton and others discovered the mathematical translation of this interplay: Derivatives are defined as local objects while integrals encompass global properties." (Sadri Hassani, "Mathematical Methods: For Students of Physics and Related Fields", 2009)

"Black Swans (capitalized) are large-scale unpredictable and irregular events of massive consequence - unpredicted by a certain observer, and such un - predictor is generally called the 'turkey' when he is both surprised and harmed by these events. [...] Black Swans hijack our brains, making us feel we 'sort of' or 'almost' predicted them, because they are retrospectively explainable. We don’t realize the role of these Swans in life because of this illusion of predictability. […] An annoying aspect of the Black Swan problem - in fact the central, and largely missed, point - is that the odds of rare events are simply not computable." (Nassim N Taleb, "Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder", 2012)

"The sensitivity of chaotic systems to initial conditions is particularly well known under the moniker of the 'butterfly effect', which is a metaphorical illustration of the chaotic nature of the weather system in which 'a flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil could set off a tornado in Texas'. The meaning of this expression is that, in a chaotic system, a small perturbation could eventually cause very large-scale difference in the long run." (Hiroki Sayama, "Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems", 2015)

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🪸On Systems Thinking: On Large Scale

"Almost everyone now acknowledges that theory and experiment, model making, theory construction and linguistics all go together, and th...