On Prediction II

"It is never possible to predict a physical occurrence with unlimited precision." (Max Planck, "A Scientific Autobiography", 1949)

"Measurement, we have seen, always has an element of error in it. The most exact description or prediction that a scientist can make is still only approximate." (Abraham Kaplan, "The Conduct of Inquiry: Methodology for Behavioral Science", 1964)

"In the long run, qualitative changes always outweigh quantitative ones. Quantitative predictions of economic and social trends are made obsolete by qualitative changes in the rules of the game. Quantitative predictions of technological progress are made obsolete by unpredictable new inventions. I am interested in the long run, the remote future, where quantitative predictions are meaningless. The only certainty in that remote future is that radically new things will be happening." (Freeman J Dyson, "Disturbing the Universe", 1979)

"We expect to learn new tricks because one of our science based abilities is being able to predict. That after all is what science is about. Learning enough about how a thing works so you'll know what comes next. Because as we all know everything obeys the universal laws, all you need is to understand the laws." (James Burke, "The Day the Universe Changed", 1985) 

"We can predict only those things we set up to be predictable, not what we encounter in the real world of living and reactive processes." (Bill Mollison, "Permaculture: A Designers' Manual", 1988)

"Prediction, not narration, is the real test of our understanding of the world." (Nassim N Taleb, "The Black Swan", 2007)

"The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history." (Nassim N Taleb, "The Black Swan", 2007)

"Relevance is not something you can predict. It is something you discover after the fact." (Thomas Sowell, "The Thomas Sowell Reader", 2011)

"The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011) 

"Under complexity science, the more interacting factors, the more unpredictable and irregular the outcome. To be succinct, the greater the complexity, the greater the unpredictability." (Lawrence K Samuels, "Defense of Chaos: The Chaology of Politics, Economics and Human Action", 2013)