"Engage people with what they expect; it is what they are able to discern and confirms their projections. It settles them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment - that which they cannot anticipate." (Sun Tzu, "The Art of War")
"What is big is easy to perceive: what is small is difficult to perceive. In short, it is difficult for large numbers of men to change position, so their movements can be easily predicted. An individual can easily change his mind, so his movements are difficult to predict."(Miyamoto Musashi, "The Book of Five Rings" , 1645)
"The doctrine called Philosophical Necessity is simply this: that, given the motives which are present to an individual's mind, and given likewise the character and disposition of the individual, the manner in which he will act might be unerringly inferred: that if we knew the person thoroughly, and knew all the inducements which are acting upon him, we could foretell his conduct with as much certainty as we can predict any physical event." (John S Mill, "A System of Logic, Ratiocinative and Inductive", 1843)
"How can we dare to predict the behavior of man? We may predict the movements of a machine, of an automaton; more than this, we many even try to predict the mechanisms or 'dynamisms' of the human psyche as well. But man is more than psyche." (Viktor E Frankl, "Man's Search for Meaning", 1984)
"To assume you know someone well enough that you can and do predict their behavior and mental perspective is a gross and often tragic mistake, for it eliminates that person's freedom to create his or her own opinion and drastically affects the emerging picture of the relationship." (Meredith L Young-Sowers, "Agartha: a journey to the stars", 1984)
"The challenge for individuals in primate societies is to be able to predict the behavior of others. One way would be for individuals to have a huge mental bank in their brains, which stored every possible action of their fellow troop members and their own appropriate actions." (Richard Leakey, "The Origin of Humankind", 1994)
"Even if someone knew the entire physical history of the world, and every mental event were identical with a physical, it would notfollow that he could predict or explain a single mental event (so described, of course)."(Donald Davidson, "Essays on Actions and Events", 2001)
"We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren't very good at it." (Nate Silver, "The Signal and the Noise", 2012)
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