15 August 2020

On Prediction XI (Mental Models)

"Some may object that this reduces thought to a mere ‘copy’ of reality and that we ought not to want such an internal ‘copy’; are not electrons, causally interacting, good enough? […] only this internal model of reality - this working model - enables us to predict events which have not yet occurred in the physical world, a process which saves time, expense, and even life." (Kenneth Craik, "The Nature of Explanation", 1943)

"Out of our image we predict the messages which will return to us as a result of our acts.  If this prediction is fulfilled the image is confirmed, if it is not fulfilled the image must be changed.  This is the essence of the logical-positivist view that definitions must be operational and hypotheses must be testable as an open system of a very different and much more complex character than that of the biological organism." (Kenneth E Boulding, "The Image: Knowledge in life and society", 1956)

“People’s views of the world, of themselves, of their own capabilities, and of the tasks that they are asked to perform, or topics they are asked to learn, depend heavily on the conceptualizations that they bring to the task. In interacting with the environment, with others, and with the artifacts of technology, people form internal, mental models of themselves and of the things with which they are interacting. These models provide predictive and explanatory power for understanding the interaction.” (Donald A Norman, “Some observations on Mental Models”, 1983)

"Since mental models can take many forms and serve many purposes, their contents are very varied. They can contain nothing but tokens that represent individuals and identities between them, as in the sorts of models that are required for syllogistic reasoning. They can represent spatial relations between entities, and the temporal or causal relations between events. A rich imaginary model of the world can be used to compute the projective relations required for an image. Models have a content and form that fits them to their purpose, whether it be to explain, to predict, or to control." (Philip Johnson-Laird, "Mental models: Toward a cognitive science of language, inference, and consciousness", 1983)

"The purpose of a mental model is to allow the person to understand and to anticipate the behavior of a physical system. This means that the model must have predictive power, either by applying rules of inference or by procedural derivation (in whatever manner these properties may be realized in a person); in other words, it should be possible for people to ' run' their models mentally. This means that the conceptual mental model must also include a model of the relevant human information processing and knowledge structures that make it possible for the person to use a mental model to predict and understand the physical system." (Donald A Norman, "Some Observations on Mental Models" [in "Mental Models"], 1983)

"Mental models are the mechanisms whereby humans are able to generate descriptions of system purpose and form, explanations of system functioning and observed system states, and predictions of future system states." (William B Rouse & Nancy M Morris, "On looking into the black box: Prospects and limits in the search for mental models", Psychological Bulletin (3), 1986)

"Modeling underlies our ability to think and imagine, to use signs and language, to communicate, to generalize from experience, to deal with the unexpected, and to make sense out of the raw bombardment of our sensations. It allows us to see patterns, to appreciate, predict, and manipulate processes and things, and to express meaning and purpose. In short, it is one of the most essential activities of the human mind. It is the foundation of what we call intelligent behavior and is a large part of what makes us human. We are, in a word, modelers: creatures that build and use models routinely, habitually – sometimes even compulsively – to face, understand, and interact with reality."  (Jeff Rothenberg, "The Nature of Modeling. In: Artificial Intelligence, Simulation, and Modeling", 1989)

“World view, a concept borrowed from cultural anthropology, refers to the culturally dependent, generally subconscious, fundamental organization of the mind. This conceptual organization manifests itself as a set of presuppositions that predispose one to feel, think, and act in predictable patterns.” (Kenneth G Tobin, "The practice of constructivism in science education”, 1993)

“The term mental model refers to knowledge structures utilized in the solving of problems. Mental models are causal and thus may be functionally defined in the sense that they allow a problem solver to engage in description, explanation, and prediction. Mental models may also be defined in a structural sense as consisting of objects, states that those objects exist in, and processes that are responsible for those objects’ changing states.” (Robert Hafner & Jim Stewart, “Revising Explanatory Models to Accommodate Anomalous Genetic Phenomena: Problem Solving in the ‘Context of Discovery’”, Science Education 79 (2), 1995)

"People build practical, useful mental models all of the time. Seldom do they resort to writing a complex set of mathematical equations or use other formal methods. Rather, most people build models relating inputs and outputs based on the examples they have seen in their everyday life. These models can be rather trivial, such as knowing that when there are dark clouds in the sky and the wind starts picking up that a storm is probably on the way. Or they can be more complex, like a stock trader who watches plots of leading economic indicators to know when to buy or sell. The ability to make accurate predictions from complex examples involving many variables is a great asset." (Joseph P Bigus,"Data Mining with Neural Networks: Solving business problems from application development to decision support", 1996)

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