20 February 2021

On Economics II (Systems I)

"An economic system is not a linear system, and [...] this fact stands in the way of the determination of the parameters of the system by methods that presume linearity, and [...] it introduces great difficulties in the extrapolation from past behaviour for purposes of prediction. [...] Actual economic systems are constantly subjected to change and disturbances, which would result in irregularity." (Arnold Tustin, "The Mechanism of Economic System", 1953)

"The striking parallel between the economic models that are currently under discussion and some engineering systems suggests the hope that in some way the rapid progress in the development of the theory and practice of automatic control in the world of engineering may contribute to the solution of the economic problems." (Arnold Tustin "The Mechanism of Economic Systems", 1953) 

"The ability to work with systems of general equilibrium is perhaps one of the most important skills of the economist - a skill which he shares with many other scientists, but in which he has perhaps a certain comparative advantage." (Kenneth Boulding, "The Skills of the Economist", Journal of Political Economy 67 (1), 1959)

"The treatment of the economy as a single system, to be controlled toward a consistent goal, allowed the efficient systematization of enormous information material, its deep analysis for valid decision-making. It is interesting that many inferences remain valid even in cases when this consistent goal could not be formulated, either for the reason that it was not quite clear or for the reason that it was made up of multiple goals, each of which to be taken into account." (Leonid V Kantorovich, "Mathematics in Economics: Achievements, Difficulties, Perspectives", [Nobel lecture] 1975)

"The world is a complex, interconnected, finite, ecological–social–psychological–economic system. We treat it as if it were not, as if it were divisible, separable, simple, and infinite. Our persistent, intractable global problems arise directly from this mismatch." (Donella Meadows, "Whole Earth Models and Systems", 1982)

"In nonlinear systems - and the economy is most certainly nonlinear - chaos theory tells you that the slightest uncertainty in your knowledge of the initial conditions will often grow inexorably. After a while, your predictions are nonsense." (M Mitchell Waldrop, "Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos", 1992)

"A major clash between economics and ecology derives from the fact that nature is cyclical, whereas our industrial systems are linear. Our businesses take resources, transform them into products plus waste, and sell the products to consumers, who discard more waste […]" (Fritjof Capra, "The Web of Life", 1996)

"The diversity of networks in business and the economy is mindboggling. There are policy networks, ownership networks, collaboration networks, organizational networks, network marketing-you name it. It would be impossible to integrate these diverse interactions into a single all-encompassing web. Yet no matter what organizational level we look at, the same robust and universal laws that govern nature's webs seem to greet us. The challenge is for economic and network research alike to put these laws into practice."  (Albert-László Barabási, "Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means for Business, Science, and Everyday Life", 2002)

"The butterfly effect demonstrates that complex dynamical systems are highly responsive and interconnected webs of feedback loops. It reminds us that we live in a highly interconnected world. Thus our actions within an organization can lead to a range of unpredicted responses and unexpected outcomes. This seriously calls into doubt the wisdom of believing that a major organizational change intervention will necessarily achieve its pre-planned and highly desired outcomes. Small changes in the social, technological, political, ecological or economic conditions can have major implications over time for organizations, communities, societies and even nations." (Elizabeth McMillan, "Complexity, Management and the Dynamics of Change: Challenges for practice", 2008)

"Standard economists don't seem to understand exponential growth. Ecological economics recognizes that the economy, like any other subsystem on the planet, cannot grow forever. And if you think of an organism as an analogy, organisms grow for a period and then they stop growing. They can still continue to improve and develop, but without physically growing, because if organisms did that you’d end up with nine-billion-ton hamsters." (Robert Costanza, "What is Ecological economics", 2010)

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