"Probability is a degree of certainty and it differs from certainty as a part from a whole." (Jacob Bernoulli, "Ars Conjectandi", 1713)
"We define the art of conjecture, or stochastic art, as the art of evaluating as exactly as possible the probabilities of things, so that in our judgments and actions we can always base ourselves on what has been found to be the best, the most appropriate, the most certain, the best advised; this is the only object of the wisdom of the philosopher and the prudence of the statesman." (Jacob Bernoulli, "Ars Conjectandi", 1713)
"[…] our reasonings about the wonderful and intricate operations of Nature are so full of uncertainty, that, as the wise-man truly observes, hardly do we guess aright at the things that are upon earth, and with labour do we find the things that are before us." (Stephen Hales, "Vegetable Staticks", 1727)
"As arithmetic and algebra are sciences of great clearness, certainty, and extent, which are immediately conversant about signs, upon the skillful use whereof they entirely depend, so a little attention to them may possibly help us to judge of the progress of the mind in other sciences, which, though differing in nature, design, and object, may yet agree in the general methods of proof and inquiry." (George Berkeley, "Alciphorn: or, the Minute Philosopher", 1732)
"It may be observed of mathematicians that they only meddle with such things as are certain, passing by those that are doubtful and unknown. They profess not to know all things, neither do they affect to speak of all things. What they know to be true, and can make good by invincible arguments, that they publish and insert among their theorems. Of other things they are silent and pass no judgment at all, choosing rather to acknowledge their ignorance, than affirm anything rashly." (Isaac Barrow, "Mathematical Lecture", 1734)
"Do not expect to arrive at certainty in every subject which you pursue. There are a hundred things wherein we mortals […] must be content with probability, where our best light and reasoning will reach no farther." (Isaac Watts," The Improvement of the Mind", 1741)
"We define the art of conjecture, or stochastic art, as the art of evaluating as exactly as possible the probabilities of things, so that in our judgments and actions we can always base ourselves on what has been found to be the best, the most appropriate, the most certain, the best advised; this is the only object of the wisdom of the philosopher and the prudence of the statesman." (Jacob Bernoulli, "Ars Conjectandi", 1713)
"[…] our reasonings about the wonderful and intricate operations of Nature are so full of uncertainty, that, as the wise-man truly observes, hardly do we guess aright at the things that are upon earth, and with labour do we find the things that are before us." (Stephen Hales, "Vegetable Staticks", 1727)
"As arithmetic and algebra are sciences of great clearness, certainty, and extent, which are immediately conversant about signs, upon the skillful use whereof they entirely depend, so a little attention to them may possibly help us to judge of the progress of the mind in other sciences, which, though differing in nature, design, and object, may yet agree in the general methods of proof and inquiry." (George Berkeley, "Alciphorn: or, the Minute Philosopher", 1732)
"It may be observed of mathematicians that they only meddle with such things as are certain, passing by those that are doubtful and unknown. They profess not to know all things, neither do they affect to speak of all things. What they know to be true, and can make good by invincible arguments, that they publish and insert among their theorems. Of other things they are silent and pass no judgment at all, choosing rather to acknowledge their ignorance, than affirm anything rashly." (Isaac Barrow, "Mathematical Lecture", 1734)
"Do not expect to arrive at certainty in every subject which you pursue. There are a hundred things wherein we mortals […] must be content with probability, where our best light and reasoning will reach no farther." (Isaac Watts," The Improvement of the Mind", 1741)
"There is nothing more pleasant for man than the certainty of knowledge; whoever has once tasted of it is repelled by everything in which he perceives nothing but uncertainty. This is why the mathematicians who always deal with certain knowledge have been repelled by philosophy and other things, and have found nothing more pleasant than to spend their time with lines and letters." (Christian Wolff, 1741)
"One should not be deceived by philosophical works that pretend to be mathematical, but are merely dubious and murky metaphysics. Just because a philosopher can recite the words lemma, theorem and corollary doesn't mean that his work has the certainty of mathematics. That certainty does not derive from big words, or even from the method used by geometers, but rather from the utter simplicity of the objects considered by mathematics." (Pierre L Maupertuis, "Les Loix du Mouvement et du Repos, déduites d'un Principe Métaphysique", 1746)
"All effects follow not with like certainty from their supposed causes." (David Hume, "An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding", 1748)
"If an inquiry thus carefully conducted should fail at last of discovering the truth, it may answer an end perhaps as useful, in discovering to us the weakness of our own understanding. If it does not make us knowing, it may make us modest. If it does not preserve us from error, it may at least from the spirit of error; and may make us cautious of pronouncing with positiveness or with haste, when so much labour may end in so much uncertainty." (Edmund Burke, "Essay on the Sublime and Beautiful", 1756)
"He who has not made the experiment, or who is not accustomed to require rigorous accuracy from himself, will scarcely believe how much a few hours take from certainty of knowledge, and distinctness of imagery; how the succession of objects will be broken, how separate parts will be confused, and how many particular features and discriminations will be compressed and conglobated into one gross and general idea." (Samuel Johnson, "A Journey to the Western Islands of Scotland", 1775)
"Metaphysical truths can only be established by producing effects from corresponding causes; and though we may confront such demonstrative evidence with the immutable laws of mathematical decision, we must be sensible that there will still remain some pretense for doubt; thus the basis of that knowledge, which on these principles we have been long labouring to accomplish, will become an endless toil, an endless force for controversy: and having the passions and the prejudices of mankind to combat, which mathematical certainty can alone effectually suppress, we must content ourselves only with making converts of those who have minds sufficiently expansive without the shackles of Euclid, and the vanity of displaying their own learning and pedantry." (James Douglas, "A Dissertation on the Antiquity of the Earth", 1785)
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