01 November 2019

On Certainty (1980-1989)

"Moreover, ‘fact’ doesn’t mean ‘absolute certainty’; there ain’t no such animal in an exciting and complex world. The final proofs of logic and mathematics flow deductively from stated premises and achieve certainty only because they are NOT about the empirical world. Evolutionists make no claim for perpetual truth, though creationists often do (and then attack us falsely for a style of argument that they themselves favor)." (Stephen J Gould, "Evolution as Fact and Theory", Discover, 1981)

"The basis of this theory is that in nature there is an inherent uncertainty or unpredictability that manifests itself only on an atomic scale. For example, the position of a subatomic particle such as an electron may not be a well-defined concept at all; it should be envisaged as jiggling around in a random sort of a way. Energy, too, becomes a slightly nebulous concept, subject to capricious and unpredictable changes." (Paul C W Davies, "The Edge of Infinity: Where the Universe Came from and How It Will End", 1981)


"[…] facts and theories are different things, not rungs in a hierarchy of increasing certainty. Facts are the world’s data. Theories are structures of ideas that explain and interpret facts. Facts do not go away when scientists debate rival theories to explain them." (Stephen J Gould, "Hen’s Teeth and Horses Toes", 1983)


"The theory of the visual display of quantitative information consists of principles that generate design options and that guide choices among options. The principles should not be applied rigidly or in a peevish spirit; they are not logically or mathematically certain; and it is better to violate any principle than to place graceless or inelegant marks on paper. Most principles of design should be greeted with some skepticism, for word authority can dominate our vision, and we may come to see only though the lenses of word authority rather than with our own eyes." (Edward R Tufte, "The Visual Display of Quantitative Information", 1983)


"But there is trouble in store for anyone who surrenders to the temptation of mistaking an elegant hypothesis for a certainty: the readers of detective stories know this quite well." (Primo Levi, "The Periodic Table", 1984)


"Models are often used to decide issues in situations marked by uncertainty. However statistical differences from data depend on assumptions about the process which generated these data. If the assumptions do not hold, the inferences may not be reliable either. This limitation is often ignored by applied workers who fail to identify crucial assumptions or subject them to any kind of empirical testing. In such circumstances, using statistical procedures may only compound the uncertainty." (David A Greedman & William C Navidi, "Regression Models for Adjusting the 1980 Census", Statistical Science Vol. 1 (1), 1986)


"Modern philosophy of science has gone far beyond the naive belief that science reveals the truth. Even if it could, we would have no means of proving it. Certainty seems unattainable. All scientific statements remain open to doubt. […] We cannot reach the absolute at least as far as science is concerned; we have to content ourselves with the relative." (Rolf Sattler, "Biophilosophy", 1986)


"Three shifts can be detected over time in the understanding of mathematics itself. One is a shift from completeness to incompleteness, another from certainty to conjecture, and a third from absolutism to relativity." (Leone Burton, "Femmes et Mathematiques: Y a–t–il une?",  Association for Women in Mathematics Newsletter, Intersection 18, 1988)

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