On Certainty (1900-1924)

"Experiment is the sole source of truth. It alone can teach us something new; it alone can give us certainty." (Henri Poincaré, "Science and Hypothesis", 1902)

"The apodictic quality of mathematical thought, the certainty and correctness of its conclusions, are due, not to a special mode of ratiocination, but to the character of the concepts with which it deals. What is that distinctive characteristic? I answer: precision, sharpness, completeness of definition. But how comes your mathematician by such completeness? There is no mysterious trick involved; some ideas admit of such precision, others do not; and the mathematician is one who deals with those that do." (Cassius J Keyser, "The Universe and Beyond", Hibbert Journal Vol. 3, 1904–1905)

"Sometimes the probability in favor of a generalization is enormous, but the infinite probability of certainty is never reached." (William Dampier-Whetham, "Science and the Human Mind", 1912)

"No matter how solidly founded a prediction may appear to us, we are never absolutely sure that experiment will not contradict it, if we undertake to verify it . […] It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all." (Henri Poincaré, "The Foundations of Science", 1913)

"[…] mathematical verities flow from a small number of self-evident propositions by a chain of impeccable reasonings; they impose themselves not only on us, but on nature itself. They fetter, so to speak, the Creator and only permit him to choose between some relatively few solutions. A few experiments then will suffice to let us know what choice he has made. From each experiment a number of consequences will follow by a series of mathematical deductions, and in this way each of them will reveal to us a corner of the universe. This, to the minds of most people, and to students who are getting their first ideas of physics, is the origin of certainty in science." (Henri Poincaré, "The Foundations of Science", 1913)

"The very name calculus of probabilities is a paradox. Probability opposed to certainty is what we do not know, and how can we calculate what we do not know?" (Henri Poincaré, "The Foundations of Science", 1913)

"It would be a mistake to suppose that a science consists entirely of strictly proved theses, and it would be unjust to require this. […] Science has only a few apodeictic propositions in its catechism: the rest are assertions promoted by it to some particular degree of probability. It is actually a sign of a scientific mode of thought to find satisfaction in these approximations to certainty and to be able to pursue constructive work further in spite of the absence of final confirmation." (Sigmund Freud, "Introductory Lectures on Psycho-Analysis", 1916)

"Certitude is not the test of certainty. We have been cocksure of many things that were not so." (Oliver W Holmes Jr., "Natural Law", Harvard Law Review Vol. 32 (1), 1918)