On Numbers (2020-)

"Numbers are ideal vehicles for promulgating bullshit. They feel objective, but are easily manipulated to tell whatever story one desires. Words are clearly constructs of human minds, but numbers? Numbers seem to come directly from Nature herself. We know words are subjective. We know they are used to bend and blur the truth. Words suggest intuition, feeling, and expressivity. But not numbers. Numbers suggest precision and imply a scientific approach. Numbers appear to have an existence separate from the humans reporting them." (Carl T Bergstrom & Jevin D West, "Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World", 2020)

"Numbers can easily confuse us when they are unmoored from a clear definition." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"Premature enumeration is an equal-opportunity blunder: the most numerate among us may be just as much at risk as those who find their heads spinning at the first mention of a fraction. Indeed, if you’re confident with numbers you may be more prone than most to slicing and dicing, correlating and regressing, normalizing and rebasing, effortlessly manipulating the numbers on the spreadsheet or in the statistical package - without ever realizing that you don’t fully understand what these abstract quantities refer to. Arguably this temptation lay at the root of the last financial crisis: the sophistication of mathematical risk models obscured the question of how, exactly, risks were being measured, and whether those measurements were something you’d really want to bet your global banking system on." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"So what does it mean to tell an honest story? Numbers should be presented in ways that allow meaningful comparisons." (Carl T Bergstrom & Jevin D West, "Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World", 2020

"Statisticians are sometimes dismissed as bean counters. The sneering term is misleading as well as unfair. Most of the concepts that matter in policy are not like beans; they are not merely difficult to count, but difficult to define. Once you’re sure what you mean by 'bean', the bean counting itself may come more easily. But if we don’t understand the definition, then there is little point in looking at the numbers. We have fooled ourselves before we have begun." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"The whole discipline of statistics is built on measuring or counting things. […] it is important to understand what is being measured or counted, and how. It is surprising how rarely we do this. Over the years, as I found myself trying to lead people out of statistical mazes week after week, I came to realize that many of the problems I encountered were because people had taken a wrong turn right at the start. They had dived into the mathematics of a statistical claim - asking about sampling errors and margins of error, debating if the number is rising or falling, believing, doubting, analyzing, dissecting - without taking the ti- me to understand the first and most obvious fact: What is being measured, or counted? What definition is being used?" (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"To tell an honest story, it is not enough for numbers to be correct. They need to be placed in an appropriate context so that a reader or listener can properly interpret them." (Carl T Bergstrom & Jevin D West, "Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World", 2020)

"Unless we’re collecting data ourselves, there’s a limit to how much we can do to combat the problem of missing data. But we can and should remember to ask who or what might be missing from the data we’re being told about. Some missing numbers are obvious […]. Other omissions show up only when we take a close look at the claim in question." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"We should conclude nothing because that pair of numbers alone tells us very little. If we want to understand what’s happening, we need to step back and take in a broader perspective." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"Without knowing the source and context, a particular statistic is worth little. Yet numbers and statistics appear rigorous and reliable simply by virtue of being quantitative, and have a tendency to spread." (Carl T Bergstrom & Jevin D West, "Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World", 2020)

On Numbers (2010-2019)

"A bell cannot tell time, but it can be moved in just such a way as to say twelve o’clock - similarly, a man cannot calculate infinite numbers, but he can be moved in just such a way as to say π." (Daniel Tammet,"Thinking in Numbers: How Maths Illuminates Our Lives", 2012)

"A function acts like a set of rules for turning some numbers into others, a machine with parts that we can manipulate to accomplish anything we can imagine." (David Perkins, "Calculus and Its Origins", 2012)"

"It turns out pi is different. Not only is it incapable of being expressed as a fraction, but in fact pi fails to satisfy any algebraic relationship whatsoever. What does pi do? It doesn’t do anything. It is what it is. Numbers like this are called transcendental" (Latin for 'climbing beyond'). Transcendental numbers - and there are lots of them - are simply beyond the power of algebra to describe." (Paul Lockhart, "Measurement", 2012)

"Like works of literature, mathematical ideas help expand our circle of empathy, liberating us from the tyranny of a single, parochial point of view. Numbers, properly considered, make us better people." (Daniel Tammet, "Thinking in Numbers" , 2012)

"The engineer and the mathematician have a completely different understanding of the number pi. In the eyes of an engineer, pi is simply a value of measurement between three and four, albeit fiddlier than either of these whole numbers. [...] Mathematicians know the number pi differently, more intimately. What is pi to them? It is the length of a circle’s round line" (its circumference) divided by the straight length" (its diameter) that splits the circle into perfect halves. It is an essential response to the question, ‘What is a circle?’ But this response – when expressed in digits – is infinite: the number has no last digit, and therefore no last-but-one digit, no antepenultimate digit, no third-from-last digit, and so on." (Daniel Tammet, "Thinking in Numbers" , 2012)

"The law of large numbers is a law of mathematical statistics. It states that when random samples are sufficiently large they match the population extremely closely. […] The 'law' of small numbers is a widespread human misconception that even small samples match the population closely." (Geoff Cumming, "Understanding the New Statistics", 2012)

"The solution to a math problem is not a number; it’s an argument, a proof. We’re trying to create these little poems of pure reason. Of course, like any other form of poetry, we want our work to be beautiful as well as meaningful. Mathematics is the art of explanation, and consequently, it is difficult, frustrating, and deeply satisfying." (Paul Lockhart, "Measurement", 2012)

"The tangling and untangling of numerical relationships is called algebra. […] The point of doing algebra is not to solve equations; it’s to allow us to move back and forth between several equivalent representations, depending on the situation at hand and depending on our taste. In this sense, all algebraic manipulation is psychological. The numbers are making themselves known to us in various ways, and each different representation has its own feel to it and can give us ideas that might not occur to us otherwise." (Paul Lockhart, "Measurement", 2012)

"While the main point of statistics is to present a meaningful picture of things we care about, in many cases we also hope to act on these numbers." (Charles Wheelan, "Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data", 2012)

"[…] the symmetry group of the infinite logarithmic spiral is an infinite group, with one element for each real number. Two such transformations compose by adding the corresponding angles, so this group is isomorphic to the real numbers under addition." (Ian Stewart, "Symmetry: A Very Short Introduction", 2013)

"The value of having numbers - data - is that they aren't subject to someone else's interpretation. They are just the numbers. You can decide what they mean for you." (Emily Oster, "Expecting Better", 2013)

"Numbers are not inherently tedious. They can be illuminating, fascinating, even entertaining. The trouble starts when we decide that it is more important for a graph to be artistic than informative." (Gary Smith, "Standard Deviations", 2014)

"The search for better numbers, like the quest for new technologies to improve our lives, is certainly worthwhile. But the belief that a few simple numbers, a few basic averages, can capture the multifaceted nature of national and global economic systems is a myth. Rather than seeking new simple numbers to replace our old simple numbers, we need to tap into both the power of our information age and our ability to construct our own maps of the world to answer the questions we need answering." (Zachary Karabell, "The Leading Indicators: A short history of the numbers that rule our world", 2014)

"We don’t need new indicators that replace old simple numbers with new simple numbers. We need instead bespoke indicators, tailored to the specific needs and specific questions of governments, businesses, communities, and individuals." (Zachary Karabell, "The Leading Indicators: A short history of the numbers that rule our world", 2014)

"With fast computers and plentiful data, finding statistical significance is trivial. If you look hard enough, it can even be found in tables of random numbers." (Gary Smith, "Standard Deviations", 2014)

"[…] the usefulness of mathematics is by no means limited to finite objects or to those that can be represented with a computer. Mathematical concepts depending on the idea of infinity, like real numbers and differential calculus, are useful models for certain aspects of physical reality." (Alfred S Posamentier & Bernd Thaller, "Numbers: Their tales, types, and treasures", 2015)

"[…] what exactly do we mean by a bifurcation? The usual definition involves the concept of 'topological equivalence': if the phase portrait changes its topological structure as a parameter is varied, we say that a bifurcation has occurred. Examples include changes in the number or stability of fixed points, closed orbits, or saddle connections as a parameter is varied." (Steven H Strogatz, "Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: With Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering", 2015)

"A network" (or graph) consists of a set of nodes" (or vertices, actors) and a set of edges" (or links, ties) that connect those nodes. [...] The size of a network is characterized by the numbers of nodes and edges in it." (Hiroki Sayama, "Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems", 2015)

"A system which is usually composed of large number of possibly heterogeneous interacting agents, which are seen to exhibit emergent behavior. Emergence implies that system level behavior" (macro level) cannot be inferred from observation of individual level behavior of its constituents" (micro level). This absence of explicit links between the micro and macro levels makes complex systems especially difficult to analyze using traditional statistical and analytical techniques to study the dynamics of behavior. One typically requires the use of bottom up simulation based methods to study such systems. Complex systems are ubiquitous - markets, societies, social networks, the Internet, weather, ecosystems, are just a few examples." (Stephen E Glavin & Abhijit Sengupta, "Modelling of Consumer Goods Markets: An Agent-Based Computational Approach", Handbook of Research on Managing and Influencing Consumer Behavior, 2015)

"A very basic observation concerning a fundamental property of the world we live in is the existence of objects that can be distinguished from each other. For the definition of a set, it is indeed of crucial importance that things have individuality, because in order to decide whether objects belong to a particular set they must be distinguishable from objects that are not in the set. Without having made the basic experience of individuality of objects, it would be difficult to imagine or appreciate the concept of a set." (Alfred S Posamentier & Bernd Thaller, "Numbers: Their tales, types, and treasures", 2015)

"But we also have to know that every model has its limitations. The model of natural numbers and their sums is very successful to determine the number of objects in the union of two different groups of well-distinguished objects. But as a mathematical model, the arithmetic of numbers is not generally true but only validated and confirmed for certain well-controlled situations. […] If a model makes valid predictions in many concrete cases, if it already has been applied and tested successfully in many situations, we have some right to trust in that model. By now, we believe in the model 'natural numbers and their arithmetic' and in its predictions without having to check it every time. We do not expect that the result might be wrong; hence the verification step is not needed any longer for validating the model. If the model had a flaw, it would have been eliminated already in the past." (Alfred S Posamentier & Bernd Thaller, "Numbers: Their tales, types, and treasures", 2015)

"Complex numbers do not fit readily into many people’s schema for ‘number’, and students often reject the concept when it is first presented. Modern mathematicians look at the situation with the aid of an enlarged schema in which the facts make sense." (Ian Stewart & David Tall, "The Foundations of Mathematics" 2nd Ed., 2015)

"Complex systems are networks made of a number of components that interact with each other, typically in a nonlinear fashion. Complex systems may arise and evolve through self-organization, such that they are neither completely regular nor completely random, permitting the development of emergent behavior at macroscopic scales." (Hiroki Sayama, "Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems", 2015)

"Design is the process of taking something that appears in the mind’s eye, modeling it in one or more of a number of ways, predicting how that thing will behave if it is made, and then making it, sometimes modifying the design as we make it. Design is what engineering is about. Furthermore, modeling is how engineering design is done. This includes mental models, mathematical models, computer models, plans and drawings, written language, and" (sometimes) physical models." (William M Bulleit, "The Engineering Way of Thinking: The Idea", Structure [magazine], 2015)

"Mathematicians usually think not in terms of concrete realizations but in terms of rules that are given axiomatically. Mathematics is the art of arguing with some chosen logic and some chosen axioms. As such, it is simply one of the oldest games with symbols and words." (Alfred S Posamentier & Bernd Thaller, "Numbers: Their tales, types, and treasures", 2015)

"Moreover, there is still another important observation that seems to be essential for the idea to group objects into a set: This is the human ability to recognize similarities in different objects. Usually, a collection, or group, consists of objects that somehow belong together, objects that share a common property. While a mathematical set could also be a completely arbitrary collection of unrelated objects, this is usually not what we want to count. We count coins or hours or people, but we usually do not mix these categories." (Alfred S Posamentier & Bernd Thaller, "Numbers: Their tales, types, and treasures", 2015)

"Most mathematicians are not particularly worried by the fact that there are natural numbers so huge that they cannot be conceptualized exactly. Typically, when applying numbers to reality, approximate quantities are sufficient, and extremely large numbers would rarely be needed. In theory, the natural numbers are just a sequence whose structure is axiomatically described by the Peano axioms. As a mathematician, one typically does not care about the practical realizability of particular numbers. That every number has a unique successor is simply true by assumption; it needs no practical verification." (Alfred S Posamentier & Bernd Thaller, "Numbers: Their tales, types, and treasures", 2015)

"The branch of philosophy of mathematics that would not accept objects or expressions that nobody can construct in any practical sense is called ultrafinitism. According to this view, not even the concept of natural numbers would be accepted without restrictions, and, of course, an ultrafinitist would refuse to talk about infinity. To most mathematicians, this view would be too extreme. Reducing mathematics to finite and not-too-large objects would restrict mathematics and its usefulness in an intolerable way." (Alfred S Posamentier & Bernd Thaller, "Numbers: Their tales, types, and treasures", 2015)

"The words 'imaginary' and 'complex' again demonstrate how difficult it is to make a major change in conceptual systems - a difficulty that we already encountered with negative numbers, fractions, zero, and irrational numbers. The word 'imaginary' tells us that these numbers are unreal from the perspective of someone grounded in the real number system." (William Byers, "Deep Thinking: What Mathematics Can Teach Us About the Mind", 2015)

"A transcendental number is defined as a number that isn’t the solution of any polynomial equation with integer constants times the x’s." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"[…] the equation’s five seemingly unrelated numbers (e, i, π, 1, and 0) fit neatly together in the formula like contiguous puzzle pieces. One might think that a cosmic carpenter had jig-sawed them one day and mischievously left them conjoined on Euler’s desk as a tantalizing hint of the unfathomable connectedness of things." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"[…] the equation’s five seemingly unrelated numbers" (e, i, π, 1, and 0) fit neatly together in the formula like contiguous puzzle pieces. One might think that a cosmic carpenter had jig-sawed them one day and mischievously left them conjoined on Euler’s desk as a tantalizing hint of the unfathomable connectedness of things.[…] when the three enigmatic numbers are combined in this form, e^iπ, they react together to carve out a wormhole that spirals through the infinite depths of number space to emerge smack dab in the heartland of integers." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"[…] the story of π is the deeply ironic tale of one thinker after another trying to nail down the size of a number that is fundamentally immeasurable." (Because it’s irrational.)" (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"[…] when the three enigmatic numbers are combined in this form, e^iπ, they react together to carve out a wormhole that spirals through the infinite depths of number space to emerge smack dab in the heartland of integers." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"Zero seems as diaphanous as a fairy’s wing, yet it is as powerful as a black hole. The obverse of infinity, it’s enthroned at the center of the number line - at least as the line is usually drawn - making it a natural center of attention. It has no effect when added to other numbers, as if it were no more substantial than a fleeting thought. But when multiplied times other numbers it seems to exert uncanny power, inexorably sucking them in and making them vanish into itself at the center of things. If you’re into stark simplicity, you can express any number" (that is, any number that’s capable of being written out) with the use of zero and just one other number, one." (David Stipp,"A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"A complex system means a system whose perceived complicated behaviors can be attributed to one or more of the following characteristics: large number of element, large number of relationships among elements, non-linear and discontinuous relationship, and uncertain characteristics of elements." (Chunfang Zhou, "Fostering Creative Problem Solvers in Higher Education: A Response to Complexity of Societies", Handbook of Research on Creative Problem-Solving Skill Development in Higher Education, 2017)

"A transcendental number is defined as a number that isn’t the solution of any polynomial equation with integer constants times the x’s." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"Algebraic geometry uses the geometric intuition which arises from looking at varieties over the complex and real case to deduce important results in arithmetic algebraic geometry where the complex number field is replaced by the field of rational numbers or various finite number fields." (Raymond O Wells Jr, "Differential and Complex Geometry: Origins, Abstractions and Embeddings", 2017)

"All methods of dealing with big data require a vast number of mind-numbing, tedious, boring mathematical steps." (David S Salsburg, "Errors, Blunders, and Lies: How to Tell the Difference", 2017)

"An estimate" (the mathematical definition) is a number derived from observed values that is as close as we can get to the true parameter value. Useful estimators are those that are 'better' in some sense than any others." (David S Salsburg, "Errors, Blunders, and Lies: How to Tell the Difference", 2017)

"At first glance, the number e, known in mathematics as Euler’s number, doesn’t seem like much. It’s about 2.7, a quantity of such modest size that it invites contempt in our age of wretched excess and relentless hype." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"Bombelli’s discovery showed that it was necessary to treat apparently meaningless imaginary-number-based solutions as legitimate numbers in order to find such hidden real-number solutions. That meant the imaginaries could no longer be cavalierly pig-troughed." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"But here’s a curious thing about modest little e that sets it apart from bombastic numbers that end in scads of zeros: no matter how long you allow the computer to crank away with ever larger numbers for n, you’ll never be able to calculate its exact numerical value. That’s because the digits to the right of e’s decimal point go on forever in a random pattern - Euler actually established this in 1737. In other words, e effectively encapsulates the infinite." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"But the number i is special for a decidedly different sort of reason - it’s math’s version of the ugly duckling. [...] The geometric interpretation of e^iπ is rich with emblematic potential. You could see its suggestion of a 180-degree spin as standing for a soldier’s about-face, a ballet dancer’s half pirouette, a turnaround jump shot, the movement of someone setting out on a long journey who looks back to wave farewell, the motion of the sun from dawn to dusk, the changing of the seasons from winter to summer, the turning of the tide. You could also associate it with turning the tables on someone, a reversal of fortune, turning one’s life around, the transformation of Dr. Jekyll into Mr. Hyde" (and vice versa), the pivoting away from loss or regret to face the future, the ugly duckling becoming a beauty, drought giving way to rain. You might even interpret its highlighting of opposites as an allusion to elemental dualities—shadow and light, birth and death, yin and yang." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"Clearly e is different from child-safe numbers such as four or 10, which wouldn’t dream of inducing sudden loss of cranial integrity. But this wantonness isn’t peculiar to e. In fact, the number line is chock full of numbers, like e, whose decimal representations are effectively infinite. They’re called irrational numbers." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"Euler’s general formula, e^iθ = cos θ + i sin θ, also played a role in bringing about the happy ending of the imaginaries’ ugly duckling story. [...] Euler showed that e raised to an imaginary-number power can be turned into the sines and cosines of trigonometry." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"Ever since the discovery of irrational numbers fractured the Greek belief that all numbers were proportions, mathematicians have sorted numbers into categories and hunted for numbers that defied existing categories." (David Perkins, "φ, π, e & i", 2017)

"Just because there’s a number on it, it doesn’t mean that the number was arrived at properly. […] There are a host of errors and biases that can enter into the collection process, and these can lead millions of people to draw the wrong conclusions. Although most of us won’t ever participate in the collection process, thinking about it, critically, is easy to learn and within the reach of all of us." (Daniel J Levitin, "Weaponized Lies", 2017)

"Negative numbers posed some of the same quandaries that the imaginary numbers did to Renaissance mathematicians - they didn’t seem to correspond to quantities associated with physical objects or geometrical figures. But they proved less conceptually challenging than the imaginaries. For instance, negative numbers can be thought of as monetary debts, providing a readily grasped way to make sense of them." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"Raising e to an imaginary-number power can be pictured as a rotation operation in the complex plane. Applying this interpretation to e raised to the 'i times π' power means that Euler’s formula can be pictured in geometric terms as modeling a half-circle rotation." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"Since it’s impossible to express an irrational number such as π as a fraction, the quest for a fraction equal to π could never be successful. Ancient mathematicians didn’t know that, however. As noted above, it wasn’t until the eighteenth century that the irrationality of π was demonstrated. Their labors weren’t in vain, though. While enthusiastically pursuing their fundamentally doomed enterprise, they developed a lot of interesting mathematics as well as impressively accurate approximations of π." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"So here’s the main reason that Euler’s formula is flabbergasting: the top five celebrity numbers of all time appear together in it with no other numbers." (In addition, it includes three primordial peers from arithmetic: +, =, and exponentiation.) This conjunction of important numbers, which sprang up in different contexts in math and thus would seem to be completely unrelated, is staggering, and it accounts for much of the hullabaloo about the equation." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"Statistics, because they are numbers, appear to us to be cold, hard facts. It seems that they represent facts given to us by nature and it’s just a matter of finding them. But it’s important to remember that people gather statistics. People choose what to count, how to go about counting, which of the resulting numbers they will share with us, and which words they will use to describe and interpret those numbers. Statistics are not facts. They are interpretations. And your interpretation may be just as good as, or better than, that of the person reporting them to you." (Daniel J Levitin, "Weaponized Lies", 2017)

"The elements of this cloud of uncertainty" (the set of all possible errors) can be described in terms of probability. The center of the cloud is the number zero, and elements of the cloud that are close to zero are more probable than elements that are far away from that center. We can be more precise in this definition by defining the cloud of uncertainty in terms of a mathematical function, called the probability distribution." (David S Salsburg, "Errors, Blunders, and Lies: How to Tell the Difference", 2017)

"The fact that multiplying positive 4i times positive 4i yields negative 16 seems like saying that the friend of my friend is my enemy. Which in turn suggests that bad things would happen if i and its offspring were granted citizenship in the number world. Unlike real numbers, which always feel friendly toward the friends of their friends, the i-things would plainly be subject to insane fits of jealousy, causing them to treat numbers that cozy up to their friends as threats. That might cause a general breakdown of numerical civility." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"The very idea of raising a number to an imaginary power may well have seemed to most of the era’s mathematicians like asking the ghost of a late amphibian to jump up on a harpsichord and play a minuet." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"Then there’s the fact that if you treat infinity like a number and try to do arithmetic with it, you soon find yourself drawing wacky-sounding conclusions like 'infinity plus infinity is equal to infinity, and therefore infinity is twice as big as itself'." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"There are other problems with Big Data. In any large data set, there are bound to be inconsistencies, misclassifications, missing data - in other words, errors, blunders, and possibly lies. These problems with individual items occur in any data set, but they are often hidden in a large mass of numbers even when these numbers are generated out of computer interactions." (David S Salsburg, "Errors, Blunders, and Lies: How to Tell the Difference", 2017)

"When we use algebraic notation in statistical models, the problem becomes more complicated because we cannot 'observe' a probability and know its exact number. We can only estimate probabilities on the basis of observations." (David S Salsburg, "Errors, Blunders, and Lies: How to Tell the Difference", 2017)

"Zero seems as diaphanous as a fairy’s wing, yet it is as powerful as a black hole. The obverse of infinity, it’s enthroned at the center of the number line - at least as the line is usually drawn - making it a natural center of attention. It has no effect when added to other numbers, as if it were no more substantial than a fleeting thought. But when multiplied times other numbers it seems to exert uncanny power, inexorably sucking them in and making them vanish into itself at the center of things. If you’re into stark simplicity, you can express any number" (that is, any number that’s capable of being written out) with the use of zero and just one other number, one." (David Stipp, "A Most Elegant Equation: Euler's Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics", 2017)

"Mathematics has, of course, much to say about the more technical aspects of music, such as the tuning of musical instruments or the design of acoustically satisfying concert halls. But as to its influence on music as an art, it was, with a few notable exceptions, rather limited; the two disciplines simply followed their own separate ways." (Eli Maor, "Music by the Numbers: From Pythagoras to Schoenberg", 2018)

"Quaternions are not actual extensions of imaginary numbers, and they are not taking complex numbers into a multi-dimensional space on their own. Quaternion units are instances of some number-like object type, identified collectively, but they are not numbers" (be it real or imaginary). In other words, they form a closed, internally consistent set of object instances; they can of course be plotted visually on a multi-dimensional space but this only is a visualization within their own definition." (Huseyin Ozel, "Redefining Imaginary and Complex Numbers, Defining Imaginary and Complex Objects", 2018)

"The existing definition of imaginary numbers is solely based on the fact that certain mathematical operation, square operation, would not yield certain type of outcome, negative numbers; hence such operational outcome could only be imagined to exist. Although complex numbers actually form the largest set of numbers, it appears that almost no thought has been given until now into the full extent of all possible types of imaginary numbers." (Huseyin Ozel, "Redefining Imaginary and Complex Numbers, Defining Imaginary and Complex Objects", 2018)

"The significance of Fourier’s theorem to music cannot be overstated: since every periodic vibration produces a musical sound (provided, of course, that it lies within the audible frequency range), it can be broken down into its harmonic components, and this decomposition is unique; that is, every tone has one, and only one, acoustic spectrum, its harmonic fingerprint. The overtones comprising a musical tone thus play a role somewhat similar to that of the prime numbers in number theory: they are the elementary building blocks from which all sound is made." (Eli Maor, "Music by the Numbers: From Pythagoras to Schoenberg", 2018)

"We tend to think of maths as being an 'exact' discipline, where answers are right or wrong. And it's true that there is a huge part of maths that is about exactness. But in everyday life, numerical answers are sometimes just the start of the debate. If we are trained to believe that every numerical question has a definite, 'right' answer then we miss the fact that numbers in the real world are a lot fuzzier than pure maths might suggest." (Rob Eastaway, "Maths on the Back of an Envelope", 2019)

On Numbers (1960-1969)

"Nothing in our experience suggests the introduction of [complex numbers]. Indeed, if a mathematician is asked to justify his interest in complex numbers, he will point, with some indignation, to the many beautiful theorems in the theory of equations, of power series, and of analytic functions in general, which owe their origin to the introduction of complex numbers. The mathematician is not willing to give up his interest in these most beautiful accomplishments of his genius." (Eugene P Wigner,"The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences", Communications in Pure and Applied Mathematics 13 (1), 1960) 

"Number knows no limitations, either from the side of the infinitely great or from the side of the infinitely small, and the facility it offers for generalization is too great for us not to be tempted by it." (Félix E Borel, "Space and Time", 1960)

"Numbers are the landmarks which enable us to speak in a language common to all men, of successive moments of duration." (Félix E Borel, "Space and Time", 1960)

"[…] to the unpreoccupied mind, complex numbers are far from natural or simple and they cannot be suggested by physical observations. Furthermore, the use of complex numbers is in this case not a calculational trick of applied mathematics but comes close to being a necessity in the formulation of quantum mechanics." (Eugene Wigner,"The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences", 1960)

"It is possible, however, to express geometric facts by using algebraic methods. In other words, the properties of figures and the relationships between them can be described by means of numbers and equations. Conversely, algebraic expressions and equations can be represented or interpreted geometrically. When we translate from the language of geometry to the language of algebra, or vice versa, we are using analytical methods. Geometry when studied in this way is called analytic geometry." (William L Schaaf, "Analytic Geometry; a college course guide", 1962)

"The purpose of computing is insight, not numbers […] sometimes […] the purpose of computing numbers is not yet in sight." (Richard Hamming, [Motto for the book] "Numerical Methods for Scientists and Engineers", 1962)

"Analysis is primarily concerned with limit processes and continuity, so it is not surprising that mathematicians thinking along these lines soon found themselves studying (and generalizing) two elementary concepts: that of a convergent sequence of real or complex numbers, and that of a continuous function of a real or complex variable." (George F Simmons, "Introduction to Topology and Modern Analysis", 1963)

"It seems to me that a worthwhile distinction can be drawn between two types of pure mathematics. The first - which unfortunately is somewhat out of style at present - centers attention on particular functions and theorems which are rich in meaning and history, like the gamma function and the prime number theorem, or on juicy individual facts […] The second is concerned primarily with form and structure." (George F Simmons, "Introduction to Topology and Modern Analysis", 1963)

"[…] numbers are free creations of the human mind; they serve as a means of apprehending more easily and more sharply the difference of things." (Richard Dedekind, "Essays on the Theory of Numbers", 1963)

"The modern era has uncovered for combinatorics a wide range of fascinating new problems. These have arisen in abstract algebra, topology, the foundations of mathematics, graph theory, game theory, linear programming, and in many other areas. Combinatorics has always been diversified. During our day this diversification has increased manifold. Nor are its many and varied problems successfully attacked in terms of a unified theory. Much of what we have said up to now applies with equal force to the theory of numbers. In fact, combinatorics and number theory are sister disciplines. They share a certain intersection of common knowledge, and each genuinely enriches the other." (Herbert J Ryser, "Combinatorial Mathematics", 1963)

"[…] it took men about five thousand years, counting from the beginning of number symbols, to think of a symbol for nothing." (Isaac Asimov, "Of Time and Space and Other Things", 1965)

"It is paradoxical that while mathematics has the reputation of being the one subject that brooks no contradictions, in reality it has a long history of successful living with contradictions. This is best seen in the extensions of the notion of number that have been made over a period of 2500 years. From limited sets of integers, to infinite sets of integers, to fractions, negative numbers, irrational numbers, complex numbers, transfinite numbers, each extension, in its way, overcame a contradictory set of demands." (Philip J Davis, "The Mathematics of Matrices", 1965)

"Probably no symbol in mathematics has evoked as much mystery, romanticism, misconception and human interest as the number π." (William L Schaaf, "Nature and History of π", 1967)

"It would not be an exaggeration to say that all of mathematics derives from the concept of infinity. In mathematics, as a rule, we are not interested in individual objects" (numbers, geometric figures), but in whole classes of such objects: all natural numbers, all triangles, and so on. But such a collection consists of an infinite number of individual objects." (Naum Ya. Vilenkin, "Stories about Sets", 1968)

"[…] random numbers should not be generated with a method chosen at random. Some theory should be used." (Donald E. Knuth, "The Art of Computer Programming" Vol. II, 1968)

"Computer science is at once abstract and pragmatic. The focus on actual computers introduces the pragmatic component: our central questions are economic ones like the relations among speed, accuracy, and cost of a proposed computation, and the hardware and software organization required. The (often) better understood questions of existence and theoretical computability - however fundamental - remain in the background. On the other hand, the medium of computer science - information - is an abstract one. The meaning of symbols and numbers may change from application to application, either in mathematics or in computer science. Like mathematics, one goal of computer science is to create a basic structure in terms of inherently defined concepts that is independent of any particular application." (George E Forsythe, "What to do till the computer scientist comes", 1968)

"The generation of random numbers is too important to be left to chance." (Robert R. Coveyou, 1969)

"The modern definition of a function in the context of real numbers is that it is a relationship, usually a formula, by which a correspondence is established between two sets A" (the domain) and B" (the range) of real numbers in such a manner that to every number in set A there corresponds only one number in set B." (Alan Jeffrey, "Mathematics for Engineers and Scientists", 1969)

On Numbers (1970-1979)

"[...] gradually and unwittingly mathematicians began to introduce concepts that had little or no direct physical meaning. Of these, negative and complex numbers were most troublesome. It was because these two types of numbers had no 'reality' in nature that they were still suspect at the beginning of the nineteenth century, even though freely utilized by then. The geometrical representation of negative numbers as points or vectors in the complex plane, which, as Gauss remarked of the latter, gave them intuitive meaning and so made them admissible, may have delayed the realization that mathematics deals with man-made concepts. But then the introduction of quaternions, non-Euclidean geometry, complex elements in geometry, n-dimensional geometry, bizarre functions, and transfinite numbers forced the recognition of the artificiality of mathematics." (Morris Kline, "Mathematical Thought from Ancient to Modern Times", 1972)

"Good statistical analysis is not a purely routine matter, and generally calls for more than one pass through the computer. The analysis should be sensitive both to peculiar features in the given numbers and also to whatever background information is available about the variables. The latter is particularly helpful in suggesting alternative ways of setting up the analysis." (Francis J Anscombe, "Graphs in Statistical Analysis", The American Statistician Vol. 27 (1), 1973)

"Statistics is ’hocuspocus’ with numbers." (Audrey Haber & Richard P Runion,"General Statistics", 1973)

"Of course, we know the laws of trial and error, of large numbers and probabilities. We know that these laws are part of the mathematical and mechanical fabric of the universe, and that they are also at play in biological processes. But, in the name of the experimental method and out of our poor knowledge, are we really entitled to claim that everything happens by chance, to the exclusion of all other possibilities?" (Albert Claude, "The Coming of Age of the Cell", Science, 1974)

"We know the laws of trial and error, of large numbers and probabilities. We know that these laws are part of the mathematical and mechanical fabric of the universe, and that they are also at play in biological processes. But, in the name of the experimental method and out of our poor knowledge, are we really entitled to claim that everything happens by chance, to the exclusion of all other possibilities?" (Albert Claude, "The Coming Age of the Cell", Nobel Prize Lecture] 1974)

"Numbers are not just counters; they are elements in a system." (Scott Buchanan,"Poetry and Mathematics", 1975)

"The physicist who states a law of nature with the aid of a mathematical formula is abstracting a real feature of a real material world, even if he has to speak of numbers, vectors, tensors, state-functions, or whatever to make the abstraction." (Hilary Putnam, "Mathematics, matter, and method", 1975)

"The theory of number is the epipoem of mathematics." (Scott Buchanan, "Poetry and Mathematics", 1975)

"For the mathematician, the physical way of thinking is merely the starting point in a process of abstraction or idealization. Instead of being a dot on a piece of paper or a particle of dust suspended in space, a point becomes, in the mathematician's ideal way of thinking, a set of numbers or coordinates. In applied mathematics we must go much further with this process because the physical problems under consideration are more complex. We first view a phenomenon in the physical way, of course, but we must then go through a process of idealization to arrive at a more abstract representation of the phenomenon which will be amenable to mathematical analysis." (Peter Lancaster, "Mathematics: Models of the Real World", 1976)

"Our mistake is not that we take our theories too seriously, but that we do not take them seriously enough. It is always hard to realize that these numbers and equations we play with at our desks have something to do with the real world." (Steven Weinberg, "The First Three Minutes", 1977)

"Surreal numbers are an astonishing feat of legerdemain. An empty hat rests on a table made of a few axioms of standard set theory. Conway waves two simple rules in the air, then reaches into almost nothing and pulls out an infinitely rich tapestry of numbers that form a real and closed field. Every real number is surrounded by a host of new numbers that lie closer to it than any other 'real' value does. The system is truly 'surreal.'" (Martin Gardner, "Mathematical Magic Show", 1977

"There is no more reason to expect one graph to ‘tell all’ than to expect one number to do the same." (John W Tukey, "Exploratory Data Analysis", 1977) 

"There are two facts about the distribution of prime numbers of which I hope to convince you so overwhelmingly that they will be permanently engraved in your hearts. The first is that, despite their simple definition and role as the building blocks of the natural numbers, the prime numbers belong to the most arbitrary and ornery objects studied by mathematicians: they grow like weeds among the natural numbers, seeming to obey no other law than that of chance, and nobody can predict where the next one will sprout. The second fact is even more astonishing, for it states just the opposite: that the prime numbers exhibit stunning regularity, that there are laws governing their behaviour, and that they obey these laws with almost military precision." (Don Zagier,"The First 50 Million Prime Numbers", The Mathematical Intelligencer Vol. 0, 1977)

"Numbers are the product of counting. Quantities are the product of measurement. This means that numbers can conceivably be accurate because there is a discontinuity between each integer and the next. Between two and three there is a jump. In the case of quantity there is no such jump, and because jump is missing in the world of quantity it is impossible for any quantity to be exact. You can have exactly three tomatoes. You can never have exactly three gallons of water. Always quantity is approximate." (Gregory Bateson, "Number is Different from Quantity", CoEvolution Quarterly, 1978)

"Prime numbers have always fascinated mathematicians, professional and amateur alike. They appear among the integers, seemingly at random, and yet not quite: there seems to be some order or pattern, just a little below the surface, just a little out of reach." (Underwood Dudley,"Elementary Number Theory", 1978)

On Numbers (1980-1989)

"People often feel inept when faced with numerical data. Many of us think that we lack numeracy, the ability to cope with numbers. […] The fault is not in ourselves, but in our data. Most data are badly presented and so the cure lies with the producers of the data. To draw an analogy with literacy, we do not need to learn to read better, but writers need to be taught to write better." (Andrew Ehrenberg, "The problem of numeracy", American Statistician 35(2), 1981)

"The principal aim of physical theories is understanding. A theory's ability to find a number is merely a useful criterion for a correct understanding." (Yuri I Manin, "Mathematics and Physics", 1981)

"We would wish ‘numerate’ to imply the possession of two attributes. The first of these is an ‘at-homeness’ with numbers and an ability to make use of mathematical skills which enable an individual to cope with the practical mathematical demands of his everyday life. The second is ability to have some appreciation and understanding of information which is presented in mathematical terms, for instance in graphs, charts or tables or by reference to percentage increase or decrease." (Cockcroft Committee, "Mathematics Counts: A Report into the Teaching of Mathematics in Schools", 1982)

"Data in isolation are meaningless, a collection of numbers. Only in context of a theory do they assume significance[...]" (George Greenstein, "Frozen Star", 1983)

"The digital-computer field defined computers as machines that manipulated numbers. The great thing was, adherents said, that everything could be encoded into numbers, even instructions. In contrast, scientists in AI [artificial intelligence] saw computers as machines that manipulated symbols. The great thing was, they said, that everything could be encoded into symbols, even numbers." (Allen Newell, "Intellectual Issues in the History of Artificial Intelligence", 1983)

"A final goal of any scientific theory must be the derivation of numbers. Theories stand or fall, ultimately, upon numbers." (Richard E Bellman, "Eye of the Hurricane: An Autobiography", 1984)

"I shall here present the view that numbers, even whole numbers, are words, parts of speech, and that mathematics is their grammar. Numbers were therefore invented by people in the same sense that language, both written and spoken, was invented. Grammar is also an invention. Words and numbers have no existence separate from the people who use them. Knowledge of mathematics is transmitted from one generation to another, and it changes in the same slow way that language changes. Continuity is provided by the process of oral or written transmission." (Carl Eckart," Our Modern Idol: Mathematical Science", 1984)

"When you have mastered the numbers, you will in fact no longer be reading numbers, any more than you read words when reading a book. You will be reading meanings." (Harold Geneen & Alvin Moscow, "Managing", 1984)

"Numbers have undoubted powers to beguile and benumb, but critics must probe behind numbers to the character of arguments and the biases that motivate them." (Stephen Jay Gould, "An Urchin in the Storm: Essays About Books and Ideas", 1987)

"How big is a fractal? When are two fractals similar to one another in some sense? What experimental measurements might we make to tell if two different fractals may be metrically equivalent? [...] There are various numbers associated with fractals which can be used to compare them. They are generally referred to as fractal dimensions. They are attempts to quantify a subjective feeling which we have about how densely the fractal occupies the metric space in which it lies. Fractal dimensions provide an objective means for comparing fractals." (Michael Barnsley, "Fractals Everwhere", 1988)

"As a practical matter, mathematics is a science of pattern and order. Its domain is not molecules or cells, but numbers, chance, form, algorithms, and change. As a science of abstract objects, mathematics relies on logic rather than observation as its standard of truth, yet employs observation, simulation, and even experimentation as a means of discovering truth. "(National Research Council, "Everybody Counts", 1989)

"Probabilities are pure numbers. Probability densities, on the other hand, have dimensions, the inverse of those of the variable x to which they apply." (Roger J Barlow, "Statistics: A guide to the use of statistical methods in the physical sciences", 1989)

"Science is supposed to explain to us what is actually happening, and indeed what will happen, in the world. Unfortunately as soon as you try and do something useful with it, sordid arithmetical numbers start getting in the way and messing up the basic scientific laws." (Roger J Barlow, "Statistics: A guide to the use of statistical methods in the physical sciences", 1989)

"Torture numbers, and they will confess to anything." (Gregg Easterbrook, New Republic, 1989)

"Words and numbers are of equal value, for, in the cloak of knowledge, one is warp and the other woof. It is no more important to count the sands than it is to name the stars." (Norton Juster, "The Phantom Tollbooth", 1989)

On Models in Analysis (1975-)

"We argue that in order to deal with the various inertial pressures the adaptation perspective must be supplemented with a selection orientation. We consider first two broad issues that are preliminary to ecological modelling. The first concerns appropriate units of analysis. Typical analyses of the relation of organizations to environments take the point of view of a single organization facing an environment." (Michael T Hannan, "The Population Ecology of Organizations", 1977)

"It is actually impossible in theory to determine exactly what the hidden mechanism is without opening the box, since there are always many different mechanisms with identical behavior. Quite apart from this, analysis is more difficult than invention in the sense in which, generally, induction takes more time to perform than deduction: in induction one has to search for the way, whereas in deduction one follows a straightforward path." (Valentino Braitenberg, "Vehicles: Experiments in Synthetic Psychology", 1984)

"Mathematical model making is an art. If the model is too small, a great deal of analysis and numerical solution can be done, but the results, in general, can be meaningless. If the model is too large, neither analysis nor numerical solution can be carried out, the interpretation of the results is in any case very difficult, and there is great difficulty in obtaining the numerical values of the parameters needed for numerical results." (Richard E Bellman, "Eye of the Hurricane: An Autobiography", 1984)

"The methods of science include controlled experiments, classification, pattern recognition, analysis, and deduction. In the humanities we apply analogy, metaphor, criticism, and (e)valuation. In design we devise alternatives, form patterns, synthesize, use conjecture, and model solutions." (Béla H Bánáthy, "Designing Social Systems in a Changing World", 1996)

"[…] it does not seem helpful just to say that all models are wrong. The very word model implies simplification and idealization. The idea that complex physical, biological or sociological systems can be exactly described by a few formulae is patently absurd. The construction of idealized representations that capture important stable aspects of such systems is, however, a vital part of general scientific analysis and statistical models, especially substantive ones, do not seem essentially different from other kinds of model." (David Cox, "Comment on ‘Model uncertainty, data mining and statistical inference’", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 158, 1995)

"The methods of science include controlled experiments, classification, pattern recognition, analysis, and deduction. In the humanities we apply analogy, metaphor, criticism, and (e)valuation. In design we devise alternatives, form patterns, synthesize, use conjecture, and model solutions." (Béla H Bánáthy, "Designing Social Systems in a Changing World", 1996)

"Thematic analysis is a process for encoding quantitative information. The encoding requires an explicit 'code' . This may be a list of themes; a complex model with themes, indicators, and qualifications that are causally related; or something in between these two forms. A theme is a pattern found in the information that at minimum describes and organizes the possible observations and at maximum interprets aspects of the phenomenon. A theme may be identified at the manifest level" (directly observable in the information) or at the latent level" (underlying the phenomenon). The themes may be initially generated inductively from the raw information or generated deductively from theory or prior research." (Richard E Boyatzis, "Transforming qualitative information: Thematic analysis and code development", 1998)

"Theories of choice are at best approximate and incomplete. One reason for this pessimistic assessment is that choice is a constructive and contingent process. When faced with a complex problem, people employ a variety of heuristic procedures in order to simplify the representation and the evaluation of prospects. These procedures include computational shortcuts and editing operations, such as eliminating common components and discarding nonessential differences. The heuristics of choice do not readily lend themselves to formal analysis because their application depends on the formulation of the problem, the method of elicitation, and the context of choice." (Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty" [in "Choices, Values, and Frames"], 2000)"

"A model is an imitation of reality and a mathematical model is a particular form of representation. We should never forget this and get so distracted by the model that we forget the real application which is driving the modelling. In the process of model building we are translating our real world problem into an equivalent mathematical problem which we solve and then attempt to interpret. We do this to gain insight into the original real world situation or to use the model for control, optimization or possibly safety studies." (Ian T Cameron & Katalin Hangos,"Process Modelling and Model Analysis", 2001

"Part of a meaningful quantitative analysis is to look at models and try to figure out their deficiencies and the ways in which they can be improved. A more subtle challenge for statistical methods is to explore systematically potential modeling errors in order to assess the quality of the model predictions. This kind of uncertainty about the adequacy of a model or model family is not only relevant for econometricians outside the model but potentially also for agents inside the models." (Lars P Hansen, "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models", [Nobel lecture] 2013)

On Models in Analysis (-1974)

"There are two types of systems engineering - basis and applied. [...] Systems engineering is, obviously, the engineering of a system. It usually, but not always, includes dynamic analysis, mathematical models, simulation, linear programming, data logging, computing, optimating, etc., etc. It connotes an optimum method, realized by modern engineering techniques. Basic systems engineering includes not only the control system but also all equipment within the system, including all host equipment for the control system. Applications engineering is - and always has been - all the engineering required to apply the hardware of a hardware manufacturer to the needs of the customer. Such applications engineering may include, and always has included where needed, dynamic analysis, mathematical models, simulation, linear programming, data logging, computing, and any technique needed to meet the end purpose - the fitting of an existing line of production hardware to a customer's needs. This is applied systems engineering." (Instruments and Control Systems Vol. 31, 1958)

"The principle of complementarity states that no single model is possible which could provide a precise and rational analysis of the connections between these phenomena [before and after measurement]. In such a case, we are not supposed, for example, to attempt to describe in detail how future phenomena arise out of past phenomena. Instead, we should simply accept without further analysis the fact that future phenomena do in fact somehow manage to be produced, in a way that is, however, necessarily beyond the possibility of a detailed description. The only aim of a mathematical theory is then to predict the statistical relations, if any, connecting the phenomena." (David Bohm, "A Suggested Interpretation of the Quantum Theory in Terms of ‘Hidden’ Variables", 1952)

"Because we can never be sure that a postulated model is entirely appropriate, we must proceed in such a manner that inadequacies can be taken account of and their implications considered as we go along. To do this we must regard statistical analysis, which is a step in the major iteration […] as itself an iteration. To be on firm ground we must do more than merely postulate a model; we must build and test a tentative model at each stage of the investigation.(George E P Box & George C Tjao, "Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis", 1973)

"Modeling is definitely the most important and critical problem. If the mathematical model is not valid, any subsequent analysis, estimation, or control study is meaningless. The development of the model in a convenient form can greatly reduce the complexity of the actual studies." (Fred C Scweppe, "Uncertain dynamic systems", 1973)

"The process [of statistical analysis] usually begins by the postulating of a model worthy to be tentatively entertained. The data analyst will have arrived at this tentative model in cooperation with the scientific investigator. They will choose it 'So that, in the light of the then available knowledge, it best takes account of relevant phenomena in the simplest way possible. it will usually contain unknown parameters. Given the data the analyst can now make statistical inferences about the parameters conditional on the correctness of this first tentative model. These inferences form part of the conditional analysis. If the model is correct, they provide all there is to know about the problem under study, given the data." (George E P Box & George C Tjao, "Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis", 1973)

"The pseudo approach to uncertainty modeling refers to the use of an uncertainty model instead of using a deterministic model which is actually (or at least theoretically) available. The uncertainty model may be desired because it results in a simpler analysis, because it is too difficult (expensive) to gather all the data necessary for an exact model, or because the exact model is too complex to be included in the computer." (Fred C Scweppe, "Uncertain dynamic systems", 1973)

On Scientific Analysis

"The scientist is a practical man and his are practical aims. He does not seek the ultimate but the proximate. He does not speak of the last analysis but rather of the next approximation. […] On the whole, he is satisfied with his work, for while science may never be wholly right it certainly is never wholly wrong; and it seems to be improving from decade to decade." (Gilbert N Lewis, "The Anatomy of Science", 1926)

"The failure of the social sciences to think through and to integrate their several responsibilities for the common problem of relating the analysis of parts to the analysis of the whole constitutes one of the major lags crippling their utility as human tools of knowledge." (Robert S Lynd, "Knowledge of What?", 1939)

"Only by the analysis and interpretation of observations as they are made, and the examination of the larger implications of the results, is one in a satisfactory position to pose new experimental and theoretical questions of the greatest significance." (John A Wheeler, "Elementary Particle Physics", American Scientist, 1947)

"We have here no esoteric theory of the ultimate nature of concepts, nor a philosophical championing of the primacy of the 'operation'. We have merely a pragmatic matter, namely that we have observed after much experience that if we want to do certain kinds of things with our concepts, our concepts had better be constructed in certain ways. In fact one can see that the situation here is no different from what we always find when we push our analysis to the limit; operations are not ultimately sharp or irreducible any more than any other sort of creature. We always run into a haze eventually, and all our concepts are describable only in spiralling approximation." (Percy W Bridgman, "Reflections of a Physicist", 1950)

"Multiple equilibria are not necessarily useless, but from the standpoint of any exact science the existence of a uniquely determined equilibrium is, of course, of the utmost importance, even if proof has to be purchased at the price of very restrictive assumptions; without any possibility of proving the existence of (a) uniquely determined equilibrium - or at all events, of a small number of possible equilibria - at however high a level of abstraction, a field of phenomena is really a chaos that is not under analytical control." (Joseph A Schumpeter, "History of Economic Analysis", 1954)

"Intuition implies the act of grasping the meaning or significance or structure of a problem without explicit reliance on the analytical apparatus of one’s craft. It is the intuitive mode that yields hypotheses quickly, that produces interesting combinations of ideas before their worth is known. It precedes proof: indeed, it is what the techniques of analysis and proof are designed to test and check. It is founded on a kind of combinatorial playfulness that is only possible when the consequences of error are not overpowering or sinful." (Jerome S Bruner,"On Learning Mathematics", Mathematics Teacher Vol. 53, 1960)

"Scientific knowledge is not created solely by the piecemeal mining of discrete facts by uniformly accurate and reliable individual scientific investigations. The process of criticism and evaluation, of analysis and synthesis, are essential to the whole system. It is impossible for each one of us to be continually aware of all that is going on around us, so that we can immediately decide the significance of every new paper that is published. The job of making such judgments must therefore be delegated to the best and wisest among us, who speak, not with their own personal voices, but on behalf of the whole community of Science. […] It is impossible for the consensus - public knowledge - to be voiced at all, unless it is channeled through the minds of selected persons, and restated in their words for all to hear." (John M Ziman, "Public Knowledge: An Essay Concerning the Social Dimension of Science", 1968)

"Discovery is a double relation of analysis and synthesis together. As an analysis, it probes for what is there; but then, as a synthesis, it puts the parts together in a form by which the creative mind transcends the bare limits, the bare skeleton, that nature provides."(Jacob Bronowski, "The Ascent of Man", 1973)

"Science does not need mysticism and mysticism does not need science, but man needs both. Mystical experience is necessary to understand the deepest nature of things, and science is essential for modern life. What we need, therefore, is not a synthesis, but a dynamic interplay between mystical intuition and scientific analysis." (Fritjof Capra,"The Tao of Physics: An Exploration of the Parallels Between Modern Physics and Eastern Mysticism", 1975)

"In the ultimate analysis science is born of myth and religion, all three being expressions of the ordering spirit of the human mind." (Lancelot L Whyte, "The Unconscious Before Freud", 1978)

"The most astonishing achievements of science, intellectually and practically, have been in physics, which many people take to be the ideal type of scientific knowledge. In fact, physics is a very special type of science, in which the subject matter is deliberately chosen so as to be amenable to quantitative analysis." (John M Ziman, "Reliable Knowledge: An Exploration of the Grounds for Belief in Science", 1978)

"Science is not impressed with a conglomeration of data. It likes carefully constructed analysis of each problem." (Daniel E Koshland Jr, Science, Volume 263" (5144), [editorial] 1994)

"The methods of science include controlled experiments, classification, pattern recognition, analysis, and deduction. In the humanities we apply analogy, metaphor, criticism, and (e)valuation. In design we devise alternatives, form patterns, synthesize, use conjecture, and model solutions." (Béla H Bánáthy, "Designing Social Systems in a Changing World", 1996)

On Analysis in Dynamics

"First, strange attractors look strange: they are not smooth curves or surfaces but have 'non-integer dimension' - or, as Benoit Mandelbrot puts it, they are fractal objects. Next, and more importantly, the motion on a strange attractor has sensitive dependence on initial condition. Finally, while strange attractors have only finite dimension, the time-frequency analysis reveals a continuum of frequencies." (David Ruelle, "Chance and Chaos", 1991)"

"The recognition of symmetry is intuitive but is often difficult to express in any simple and systematic manner. Group theory is a mathematical device to allow for the analysis of symmetry in a variety of ways." (M Ladd, "Symmetry and Group theory in Chemistry", 1998)

"[...] an accurate statement of the 'weak' form of the random-walk hypothesis goes as follows: The history of stock price movements contains no useful information that will enable an investor consistently to outperform a buy-and-hold strategy in managing a portfolio. [...] Moreover, new fundamental information about a company [...] is also unpredictable. It will occur randomly over time. Indeed, successive appearances of news items must be random. If an item of news were not random, that is, if it were dependent on an earlier item of news, then it wouldn't be news at all. The weak form of the random-walk theory says only that stock prices cannot be predicted on the basis of past stock prices. [...] the weak form of the efficient-market hypothesis" (the random-walk notion) says simply that the technical analysis of past price patterns to forecast the future is useless because any information from such an analysis will already have been incorporated in current market prices." (Burton G Malkiel, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", 1999)

"While chaos theory is, in the last analysis, no more than a metaphor for human society, it can be a valuable metaphor. It makes us sensitive to the types of organizations we create and the way we deal with the situations that surround us." (F David Peat, "From Certainty to Uncertainty", 2002)

"Computers bootstrap their own offspring, grow so wise and incomprehensible that their communiqués assume the hallmarks of dementia: unfocused and irrelevant to the barely-intelligent creatures left behind. And when your surpassing creations find the answers you asked for, you can't understand their analysis and you can't verify their answers. You have to take their word on faith." (Peter Watts, "Blindsight", 2006)

"The core of bifurcation theory of nonlinear system inevitably falls back to the dynamic analysis of linear ones. Because of that, the fundamental question one may ask is if there exist a linearized DAE system with the same qualitative behavior around fixed points of its nonlinear counterpart." (Ataíde S A.Netoa et al, "Nonlinear dynamic analysis of chemical engineering processes described by differential-algebraic equations systems", 2019)

📊On Statistics: On Statistical Analysis (2010-)

"If understanding language and other phenomena through statistical analysis does not count as true understanding, then humans have no understanding either." (Ray Kurzweil, "How to Create a Mind", 2012)

"Regression analysis, like all forms of statistical inference, is designed to offer us insights into the world around us. We seek patterns that will hold true for the larger population. However, our results are valid only for a population that is similar to the sample on which the analysis has been done." (Charles Wheelan, "Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data", 2012

"The problem is that the mechanics of regression analysis are not the hard part; the hard part is determining which variables ought to be considered in the analysis and how that can best be done. Regression analysis is like one of those fancy power tools. It is relatively easy to use, but hard to use well - and potentially dangerous when used improperly." (Charles Wheelan, "Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data", 2012)

"Diagrams furnish only approximate information. They do not add anything to the meaning of the data and, therefore, are not of much use to a statistician or research worker for further mathematical treatment or statistical analysis. On the other hand, graphs are more obvious, precise and accurate than the diagrams and are quite helpful to the statistician for the study of slopes, rates of change and estimation," (interpolation and extrapolation), wherever possible." (S C Gupta & Indra Gupta, "Business Statistics", 2013)

"Part of a meaningful quantitative analysis is to look at models and try to figure out their deficiencies and the ways in which they can be improved. A more subtle challenge for statistical methods is to explore systematically potential modeling errors in order to assess the quality of the model predictions. This kind of uncertainty about the adequacy of a model or model family is not only relevant for econometricians outside the model but potentially also for agents inside the models." (Lars P Hansen, "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models", [Nobel lecture] 2013)

"Multiple regression analysis (MRA) examines the association between an independent variable and a dependent variable, controlling for the association between the independent variable and other variables, as well as the association of those other variables with the dependent variable. The method can tell us about causality only if all possible causal influences have been identified and measured reliably and validly. In practice, these conditions are rarely met." (Richard E Nisbett, "Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking", 2015)

"One technique employing correlational analysis is multiple regression analysis" (MRA), in which a number of independent variables are correlated simultaneously" (or sometimes sequentially, but we won’t talk about that variant of MRA) with some dependent variable. The predictor variable of interest is examined along with other independent variables that are referred to as control variables. The goal is to show that variable A influences variable B 'net of' the effects of all the other variables. That is to say, the relationship holds even when the effects of the control variables on the dependent variable are taken into account." (Richard E Nisbett, "Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking", 2015)

"The correlational technique known as multiple regression is used frequently in medical and social science research. This technique essentially correlates many independent" (or predictor) variables simultaneously with a given dependent variable" (outcome or output). It asks, 'Net of the effects of all the other variables, what is the effect of variable A on the dependent variable?' Despite its popularity, the technique is inherently weak and often yields misleading results. The problem is due to self-selection. If we don’t assign cases to a particular treatment, the cases may differ in any number of ways that could be causing them to differ along some dimension related to the dependent variable. We can know that the answer given by a multiple regression analysis is wrong because randomized control experiments, frequently referred to as the gold standard of research techniques, may give answers that are quite different from those obtained by multiple regression analysis." (Richard E Nisbett, "Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking", 2015)

"The theory behind multiple regression analysis is that if you control for everything that is related to the independent variable and the dependent variable by pulling their correlations out of the mix, you can get at the true causal relation between the predictor variable and the outcome variable. That’s the theory. In practice, many things prevent this ideal case from being the norm." (Richard E Nisbett, "Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking", 2015)

"In statistics, the word 'significant' means that the results passed mathematical tests such as t-tests, chi-square tests, regression, and principal components analysis" (there are hundreds). Statistical significance tests quantify how easily pure chance can explain the results. With a very large number of observations, even small differences that are trivial in magnitude can be beyond what our models of change and randomness can explain. These tests don’t know what’s noteworthy and what’s not - that’s a human judgment." (Daniel J Levitin, "Weaponized Lies", 2017)