On Numbets (2020-)

"Numbers are ideal vehicles for promulgating bullshit. They feel objective, but are easily manipulated to tell whatever story one desires. Words are clearly constructs of human minds, but numbers? Numbers seem to come directly from Nature herself. We know words are subjective. We know they are used to bend and blur the truth. Words suggest intuition, feeling, and expressivity. But not numbers. Numbers suggest precision and imply a scientific approach. Numbers appear to have an existence separate from the humans reporting them." (Carl T Bergstrom & Jevin D West, "Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World", 2020)

"Numbers can easily confuse us when they are unmoored from a clear definition." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"Premature enumeration is an equal-opportunity blunder: the most numerate among us may be just as much at risk as those who find their heads spinning at the first mention of a fraction. Indeed, if you’re confident with numbers you may be more prone than most to slicing and dicing, correlating and regressing, normalizing and rebasing, effortlessly manipulating the numbers on the spreadsheet or in the statistical package - without ever realizing that you don’t fully understand what these abstract quantities refer to. Arguably this temptation lay at the root of the last financial crisis: the sophistication of mathematical risk models obscured the question of how, exactly, risks were being measured, and whether those measurements were something you’d really want to bet your global banking system on." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"So what does it mean to tell an honest story? Numbers should be presented in ways that allow meaningful comparisons." (Carl T Bergstrom & Jevin D West, "Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World", 2020

"Statisticians are sometimes dismissed as bean counters. The sneering term is misleading as well as unfair. Most of the concepts that matter in policy are not like beans; they are not merely difficult to count, but difficult to define. Once you’re sure what you mean by 'bean', the bean counting itself may come more easily. But if we don’t understand the definition, then there is little point in looking at the numbers. We have fooled ourselves before we have begun." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"The whole discipline of statistics is built on measuring or counting things. […] it is important to understand what is being measured or counted, and how. It is surprising how rarely we do this. Over the years, as I found myself trying to lead people out of statistical mazes week after week, I came to realize that many of the problems I encountered were because people had taken a wrong turn right at the start. They had dived into the mathematics of a statistical claim - asking about sampling errors and margins of error, debating if the number is rising or falling, believing, doubting, analyzing, dissecting - without taking the ti- me to understand the first and most obvious fact: What is being measured, or counted? What definition is being used?" (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"To tell an honest story, it is not enough for numbers to be correct. They need to be placed in an appropriate context so that a reader or listener can properly interpret them." (Carl T Bergstrom & Jevin D West, "Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World", 2020)

"Unless we’re collecting data ourselves, there’s a limit to how much we can do to combat the problem of missing data. But we can and should remember to ask who or what might be missing from the data we’re being told about. Some missing numbers are obvious […]. Other omissions show up only when we take a close look at the claim in question." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"We should conclude nothing because that pair of numbers alone tells us very little. If we want to understand what’s happening, we need to step back and take in a broader perspective." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"Without knowing the source and context, a particular statistic is worth little. Yet numbers and statistics appear rigorous and reliable simply by virtue of being quantitative, and have a tendency to spread." (Carl T Bergstrom & Jevin D West, "Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World", 2020)