Mental Models LXIV

"The final truth about phenomena resides in the mathematical description of it; so long as there is no imperfection in this, our knowledge is complete. We go beyond the mathematical formula at our own risk; we may find a [nonmathematical] model or picture that helps us to understand it, but we have no right to expect this, and our failure to find such a model or picture need not indicate that either our reasoning or our knowledge is at fault." (James Jeans, "The Mysterious Universe", 1930)

"People build practical, useful mental models all of the time. Seldom do they resort to writing a complex set of mathematical equations or use other formal methods. Rather, most people build models relating inputs and outputs based on the examples they have seen in their everyday life. These models can be rather trivial, such as knowing that when there are dark clouds in the sky and the wind starts picking up that a storm is probably on the way. Or they can be more complex, like a stock trader who watches plots of leading economic indicators to know when to buy or sell. The ability to make accurate predictions from complex examples involving many variables is a great asset." (Joseph P Bigus,"Data Mining with Neural Networks: Solving business problems from application development to decision support", 1996)

"[A mental model] is a relatively enduring and accessible, but limited, internal conceptual representation of an external system (historical, existing, or projected) [italics in original] whose structure is analogous to the perceived structure of that system." (James K Doyle & David N Ford, "Mental models concepts revisited: Some clarifications and a reply to Lane", System Dynamics Review 15 (4), 1999)

"An internal model corresponds to a specific concrete situation in the external world and allows us to reason about the external situation. To do so you used information about the problem presented in the problem statement. The process of understanding, then, refers to constructing an initial mental representation of what the problem is, based on the information in the problem statement about the goal, the initial state, what you are not allowed to do, and what operator to apply, as well as your own personal past experience." (S Ian Robertson, "Problem Solving", 2001)

"Giving people new mental tools to represent aspects of the world around them meant that they could now externalize and objectify that world. Proceeding in this way they could treat the world as external to themselves and as something to be contemplated within the imagination. The world now became an object to be manipulated within the theater of the mind, rather than an external tangible reality. This also meant that people could gain increasing control over the world around them, yet always at the expense of a loss of direct involvement. The more we objectify the world, the more we are in danger of losing touch with that sense of immediacy felt by active participants in nature." (F David Peat, "From Certainty to Uncertainty", 2002)

"It’s true that to be a great chess player you must have a good memory, but it is much harder to explain what, exactly, we are remembering. Patterns? Numbers? Mental pictures of the board and pieces? The answer seems to be 'all of the above'." (Garry Kasparov, "How Life Imitates Chess", 2007)

"In the classical deterministic scenario, a model consists of a few variables and physical constants. The relational structure of the model is conceptualized by the scientist via intuition gained from thinking about the physical world. Intuition means that the scientist has some mental construct regarding the interactions beyond positing a skeletal mathematical system he believes is sufficiently rich to capture the interactions and then depending upon data to infer the relational structure and estimate a large number of parameters." (Edward R Dougherty, "The Evolution of Scientific Knowledge: From certainty to uncertainty", 2016) 

"Like all models, people’s mental models are an abstraction of reality. They may be complete and correct, or they may have gaps or inconsistencies that are consequential to effective decision making and action. A mental model is usually less complex than the real-world phenomenon involved and tends to lag in context or time and so can easily become out of date. In many cases, people may lack conscious, well-formed mental models on issues that they have not thoroughly considered in the past. This may be challenging for decision-makers as people’s responses may seem unpredictable or irrational." (Matthew D Wood, An Introduction to Mental Modeling, [in "Mental Modeling Approach: Risk Management Application Case Studies"], 2017)

"Mental Modeling enables discovery of people’s mental models in a structured, rigorous, respectful manner. Mental Modeling has been recognized as one of the premier methods for informing the development of strategies and communications that precisely address people’s current thinking, judgment, decision making, and behavior on complex issues , including risk issues. Broadly, Mental Modeling works from the “inside out,” starting with an in-depth understanding of people’s mental models, and then using that insight to develop focused strategies and communication that builds on where people are at in their thinking today, reinforcing what they know about a topic and addressing critical gaps. Broadly stated, the goal is to help people make well-informed decisions and take appropriate actions on the topic at hand." (Matthew D Wood, An Introduction to Mental Modeling, [in "Mental Modeling Approach: Risk Management Application Case Studies"], 2017)

"In signs, one sees an advantage for discovery that is greatest when they express the exact nature of a thing briefly and, as it were, picture it; then indeed, the labor of thought is wonderfully diminished” (Gottfried W Leibniz)