24 September 2023

🎲On Probability Theory (2000-2009)

"Arithmetic and number theory study patterns of number and counting. Geometry studies patterns of shape. Calculus allows us to handle patterns of motion. Logic studies patterns of reasoning. Probability theory deals with patterns of chance. Topology studies patterns of closeness and position." (Keith Devlin, "The Math Gene: How Mathematical Thinking Evolved And Why Numbers Are Like Gossip", 2000)

"The most important aspect of probability theory concerns the behavior of sequences of random variables." (Larry A Wasserman, "All of Statistics: A concise course in statistical inference", 2004)

"In the laws of probability theory, likelihood distributions are fixed properties of a hypothesis. In the art of rationality, to explain is to anticipate. To anticipate is to explain." (Eliezer S. Yudkowsky, "A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation", 2005)

"Chance is just as real as causation; both are modes of becoming. The way to model a random process is to enrich the mathematical theory of probability with a model of a random mechanism. In the sciences, probabilities are never made up or 'elicited' by observing the choices people make, or the bets they are willing to place.  The reason is that, in science and technology, interpreted probability exactifies objective chance, not gut feeling or intuition. No randomness, no probability." (Mario Bunge, "Chasing Reality: Strife over Realism", 2006)

"[...] in probability theory we are faced with situations in which our intuition or some physical experiments we have carried out suggest certain results. Intuition and experience lead us to an assignment of probabilities to events. As far as the mathematics is concerned, any assignment of probabilities will do, subject to the rules of mathematical consistency." (Robert Ash,"Basic Probability Theory", 2008)

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