Dietrich Dorner - Collected Quotes

"A system of variables is 'interrelated' if an action that affects or meant to affect one part of the system will also affect other parts of it. Interrelatedness guarantees that an action aimed at one variable will have side effects and long-term repercussions. A large number of variables will make it easy to overlook them." (Dietrich Dorner, "The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations", 1989)

"Complexity is not an objective factor but a subjective one. Supersignals reduce complexity, collapsing a number of features into one. Consequently, complexity must be understood in terms of a specific individual and his or her supply of supersignals. We learn supersignals from experience, and our supply can differ greatly from another individual's. Therefore there can be no objective measure of complexity." (Dietrich Dorner, "The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations", 1989)

"If we want to solve problems effectively […] we must keep in mind not only many features but also the influences among them. Complexity is the label we will give to the existence of many interdependent variables in a given system. The more variables and the greater their interdependence, the greater the system's complexity. Great complexity places high demands on a planner's capacity to gather information, integrate findings, and design effective actions. The links between the variables oblige us to attend to a great many features simultaneously, and that, concomitantly, makes it impossible for us to undertake only one action in a complex system." (Dietrich Dorner, "The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations", 1989)

"A system is extremely complex when it consists of a great variety of variables." (Dietrich Dörner, "The Logic of Failure", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (B), 1990)

"Adapting oneself inadequately to the sequential characteristics of processes may also be attributable to an incredibly simple feature of human data processing, namely, forgetfulness. An important requirement for gaining the correct picture of temporal sequences is having information on the length of time available. If this is not the case, one is also unable to posit hypotheses on temporal patterns. The fact that people forget means that past data are only partially available. This means that there are great difficulties in recognizing the correct form of temporal sequences. A simple means of coping with this difficulty is the 'spatialization' of time. Diagrams of temporal sequences make it possible to treat temporal sequences like 'spatial forms', which are easier to cope with." (Dietrich Dörner, "The Logic of Failure", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (B), 1990)

"Human beings have a strong tendency to react only to the status quo and to disregard developments and their conditions." (Dietrich Dörner, "The Logic of Failure", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (B), 1990)

"Humans have a strong tendency to guard their opinion of their own competence in acting. To a certain extent this makes sense, as someone who considers himself to be incapable of acting will hardly act. Guarding one's opinion of one's competence is an important motivation. But it can lead to deformations in the thought process. To maintain a high opinion of one's own competence, people fail to take notice of data that show that their hypotheses are wrong. Or they act 'ballistically' and do not check the effects of their actions so as to maintain the illusion of having solved the corresponding problems by means of their action. The underlying reasons for dispensing with self-reflection may also lie in the tendency to avoid looking at one's own mistakes so as not to endanger one's estimation of one's own competence." (Dietrich Dörner, "The Logic of Failure", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (B), 1990)

"It is possible to learn strategic flexibility [...] however, that it is difficult to teach it. It is not a matter of learning a few readily grasped general principles, but of learning a lot of small, 'local' rules, each of which is applicable in a limited area. The point is not to learn how to drive a steamroller with which one can flatten all problems in the same way, but to learn the adroitness of a puppeteer, who at one time holds many strings in his hands and who is able to adapt his movements to the given circumstances in the most sophisticated ways." (Dietrich Dörner, "The Logic of Failure", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (B), 1990)

"Subjects often act 'ballistically'. They take measures without checking the effects of these measures later. As the effects of measures are usually uncertain, this lies in the nature of complex systems, this is a dangerous error. Crisis situations are especially susceptible for ballistic forms of action […]" (Dietrich Dörner, "The Logic of Failure", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (B), 1990)

"Subjects' strategies for coping with complex systems are for the most part insufficient, in one respect or another. Self-reflexive examination and critique of one's own way of acting is an essential means of adapting one's own way of acting to the given circumstances. Dispensing with self-reflection is therefore a major error." (Dietrich Dörner, "The Logic of Failure", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (B), 1990)

"Unlike other living creatures, humans can adapt to uncertainty. They can form hypotheses about situations marked by uncertainty and can anticipate their actions by planning. They can expect the unexpected and take precautions against it." (Dietrich Dörner, "The Logic of Failure", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (B), 1990)