"Keep
in mind that a correlation may be real and based on real cause and effect, and
still be almost worthless in determining action in any single case."
(Darell Huff, "How to Lie with Statistics", 1954)
"The
well-known virtue of the experimental method is that it brings situational
variables under tight control. It thus permits rigorous tests of hypotheses and
confidential statements about causation. The correlational method, for its
part, can study what man has not learned to control. Nature has been
experimenting since the beginning of time, with a boldness and complexity far
beyond the resources of science. The correlator’s mission is to observe and
organize the data of nature’s experiments." (Lee J Cronbach, "The Two
Disciplines of Scientific Psychology", The American Psychologist Vol. 12,
1957)
"Nature is pleased with simplicity, and affects not the pomp of superfluous causes." (Morris Kline, "Mathematics and the Physical World", 1959)
"Can there be laws of chance? The answer, it would seem should be negative, since chance is in fact defined as the characteristic of the phenomena which follow no law, phenomena whose causes are too complex to permit prediction." (Félix E Borel, "Probabilities and Life", 1962)
"Every part of the system is so related to every other part that a change in a particular part causes a changes in all other parts and in the total system." (Arthur D Hall, "A methodology for systems engineering", 1962)
"Certain
properties are necessary or sufficient conditions for other properties, and the
network of causal relations thus established will make the occurrence of one
property at least tend, subject to the presence of other properties, to promote
or inhibit the occurrence of another. Arguments from models involve those
analogies which can be used to predict the occurrence of certain properties or
events, and hence the relevant relations are causal, at least in the sense of
implying a tendency to co-occur." (Mary B Hesse," Models and
Analogies in Science", 1963)
"Today
we preach that science is not science unless it is quantitative. We substitute
correlation for causal studies, and physical equations for organic reasoning.
Measurements and equations are supposed to sharpen thinking, but [...] they
more often tend to make the thinking non-causal and fuzzy." (John R Platt,
"Strong Inference", Science Vol. 146 (3641), 1964)
"Cybernetics,
based upon the principle of feedback or circular causal trains providing
mechanisms for goal-seeking and self-controlling behavior." (Ludwig von
Bertalanffy, "General System Theory", 1968)
"In
complex systems cause and effect are often not closely related in either time
or space. The structure of a complex system is not a simple feedback loop where
one system state dominates the behavior. The complex system has a multiplicity
of interacting feedback loops. Its internal rates of flow are controlled by
nonlinear relationships. The complex system is of high order, meaning that
there are many system states (or levels). It usually contains positive-feedback
loops describing growth processes as well as negative, goal-seeking loops. In
the complex system the cause of a difficulty may lie far back in time from the
symptoms, or in a completely different and remote part of the system. In fact,
causes are usually found, not in prior events, but in the structure and
policies of the system." (Jay Wright Forrester, "Urban
dynamics", 1969)
"Technology can relieve the symptoms of a problem without affecting the underlying causes. Faith in technology as the ultimate solution to all problems can thus divert our attention from the most fundamental problem - the problem of growth in a finite system - and prevent us from taking effective action to solve it." (Donella H Meadows, "The Limits to Growth", 1972)
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