"Theories of choice are at best approximate and incomplete. One reason for this pessimistic assessment is that choice is a constructive and contingent process. When faced with a complex problem, people employ a variety of heuristic procedures in order to simplify the representation and the evaluation of prospects. These procedures include computational shortcuts and editing operations, such as eliminating common components and discarding nonessential differences. The heuristics of choice do not readily lend themselves to formal analysis because their application depends on the formulation of the problem, the method of elicitation, and the context of choice." (Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty" [in "Choices, Values, and Frames"], 2000)
"A general law of least effort applies to cognitive as well as physical exertion. The law asserts that if there are several ways of achieving the same goal, people will eventually gravitate to the least demanding course of action. In the economy of action, effort is a cost, and the acquisition of skill is driven by the balance of benefits and costs. Laziness is built deep into our nature." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)
"A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)
"Knowing the importance of luck, you should be particularly suspicious when highly consistent patterns emerge from the comparison of successful and less successful firms. In the presence of randomness, regular patterns can only be mirages."
"Intelligence is not only the ability to reason; it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed."
"It is the consistency of the information that matters for a good story, not its completeness. Indeed, you will often find that knowing little makes it easier to fit everything you know into a coherent pattern." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)
"The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)
"The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a
reasoned evaluation of the probability that it is right. Confidence is a
feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease
with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and
unreliable. The bias toward coherence favors overconfidence. An individual who
expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be
true." (Daniel Kahneman, "Don't Blink! The Hazards of Confidence",
2011)
"The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)
"The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)
"This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)
"We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random."(Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)
"We are often confident even when we are wrong, and an
objective observer is more likely to detect our errors than we are."
"We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about
the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events."
"When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)
"You know you have made a theoretical advance when you can no
longer reconstruct why you failed for so long to see the obvious."
"A defining feature of system noise is that it is unwanted, and we should stress right here that variability in judgments is not always unwanted."
"A general property of noise is that you can recognize and measure it while knowing nothing about the target or bias." (Daniel Kahneman, "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment", 2021)
"Bias and noise - systematic deviation and random scatter - are different components of error. […] To understand error in judgment, we must understand both bias and noise. Sometimes, as we will see, noise is the more important problem. But in public conversations about human error and in organizations all over the world, noise is rarely recognized. Bias is the star of the show. Noise is a bit player, usually offstage. […] Wherever you look at human judgments, you are likely to find noise. To improve the quality of our judgments, we need to overcome noise as well as bias." (Daniel Kahneman, "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment", 2021)
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