14 May 2021

Geoff Cumming - Collected Quotes

"A second approach to statistical inference is estimation, which focuses on finding the best point estimate of the population parameter that’s of greatest interest; it also gives an interval estimate of that parameter, to signal how close our point estimate is likely to be to the population value." (Geoff Cumming, "Understanding the New Statistics", 2012)

"An effect is anything we might be interested in, and an effect size is simply the size of anything that may be of interest." (Geoff Cumming, "Understanding the New Statistics", 2012)

"In the long term, randomness is highly predictable. In the short term, true randomness is often lumpy." (Geoff Cumming, "Understanding the New Statistics", 2012)

"Meta-analysis is a set of techniques for the quantitative analysis of results from two or more studies on the same or similar issues. […] Meta-analytic thinking is estimation thinking that considers any result in the context of past and potential future results on the same question. It focuses on the cumulation of evidence over studies." (Geoff Cumming, "Understanding the New Statistics", 2012)

"Meta-analytic thinking is the consideration of any result in relation to previous results on the same or similar questions, and awareness that combination with future results is likely to be valuable. Meta-analytic thinking is the application of estimation thinking to more than a single study. It prompts us to seek meta-analysis of previous related studies at the planning stage of research, then to report our results in a way that makes it easy to include them in future meta-analyses. Meta-analytic thinking is a type of estimation thinking, because it, too, focuses on estimates and uncertainty." (Geoff Cumming, "Understanding the New Statistics", 2012)

"Replication is at the heart of science. If you read a study claiming that toast usually lands buttered side down, you’ll probably want to find at least one replication before you begin to take the result seriously. That’s good scientific practice. A replication experiment inevitably differs a little from the initial experiment - the toast was a little different in shape and dropped in a slightly different way - and so again finding a similar result gives some reassurance that the initial result was not caused by some quirk of the initial experiment." (Geoff Cumming, "Understanding the New Statistics", 2012)

"Statistical cognition is concerned with obtaining cognitive evidence about various statistical techniques and ways to present data. It’s certainly important to choose an appropriate statistical model, use the correct formulas, and carry out accurate calculations. It’s also important, however, to focus on understanding, and to consider statistics as communication between researchers and readers." (Geoff Cumming, "Understanding the New Statistics", 2012)

"Statistical cognition is the empirical study of how people understand, and misunderstand, statistical concepts and presentations." (Geoff Cumming, "Understanding the New Statistics", 2012)

"Statistical inference is the drawing of conclusions about the world (more specifically: about some population) from our sample data." (Geoff Cumming, "Understanding the New Statistics", 2012)

"The law of large numbers is a law of mathematical statistics. It states that when random samples are sufficiently large they match the population extremely closely. […] The 'law' of small numbers is a widespread human misconception that even small samples match the population closely." (Geoff Cumming, "Understanding the New Statistics", 2012)

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