09 May 2021

On Heuristics II

"Models of bounded rationality describe how a judgement or decision is reached (that is, the heuristic processes or proximal mechanisms) rather than merely the outcome of the decision, and they describe the class of environments in which these heuristics will succeed or fail." (Gerd Gigerenzer & Reinhard Selten [Eds., "Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox", 2001)

"A second class of metaphors - mathematical algorithms, heuristics, and models - brings us closer to the world of computer science programs, simulations, and approximations of the brain and its cognitive processes." (Diego Rasskin-Gutman, "Chess Metaphors: Artificial Intelligence and the Human Mind", 2009)

"In particular, the accurate intuitions of experts are better explained by the effects of prolonged practice than by heuristics. We can now draw a richer and more balanced picture, in which skill and heuristics are alternative sources of intuitive judgments and choices." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)

"This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution." (Daniel Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow", 2011)

"Heuristics are an evolutionary solution to an ongoing problem: we have limited mental resources. As such, they have a very long and thoroughly time-tested history of helping us - on average - make better decisions." (Peter H Diamandis, "Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think", 2012)

"Heuristics are simplified rules of thumb that make things simple and easy to implement. But their main advantage is that the user knows that they are not perfect, just expedient, and is therefore less fooled by their powers. They become dangerous when we forget that." (Nassim N Taleb, "Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder", 2012)

"The art of reasoned persuasion is an iterative, recursive heuristic, meaning that we must go back and forth between the facts and the rules until we have a good fit. We cannot see the facts properly until we know what framework to place them into, and we cannot determine what framework to place them into until we see the basic contours of the facts." (Joel P Trachtman, "The Tools of Argument", 2013)

"Heuristic decision making is fast and frugal and is often based on the evaluation of one or two salient bits of information." (Amitav Chakravarti, "Why People (Don’t) Buy: The Go and Stop Signals", 2015)

"A heuristic is a strategy we derive from previous experience with a similar problem." (Darius Foroux, "Think Straight", 2017)

"The social world that humans have made for themselves is so complex that the mind simplifies the world by using heuristics, customs, and habits, and by making models or assumptions about how things generally work (the ‘causal structure of the world’). And because people rely upon (and are invested in) these mental models, they usually prefer that they remain uncontested." (Dr James Brennan, "Psychological  Adjustment to Illness and Injury", West of England Medical Journal Vol. 117 (2), 2018)

No comments:

Post a Comment

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

On Hypothesis Testing III

  "A little thought reveals a fact widely understood among statisticians: The null hypothesis, taken literally (and that’s the only way...