20 April 2021

On Coincidence II

"People are entirely too disbelieving of coincidence. They are far too ready to dismiss it and to build arcane structures of extremely rickety substance in order to avoid it. I, on the other hand, see coincidence everywhere as an inevitable consequence of the laws of probability, according to which having no unusual coincidence is far more unusual than any coincidence could possibly be." (Isaac Asimov, "The Planet That Wasn't", 1976)

"Our form of life depends, in delicate and subtle ways, on several apparent ‘coincidences’ in the fundamental laws of nature which make the Universe tick. Without those coincidences, we would not be here to puzzle over the problem of their existence […] What does this mean? One possibility is that the Universe we know is a highly improbable accident, ‘just one of those things’." (John R Gribbin, "Genesis: The Origins of Man and the Universe", 1981)

"[…] a mathematician's ultimate concern is that his or her inventions be logical, not realistic. This is not to say, however, that mathematical inventions do not correspond to real things. They do, in most, and possibly all, cases. The coincidence between mathematical ideas and natural reality is so extensive and well documented, in fact, that it requires an explanation. Keep in mind that the coincidence is not the outcome of mathematicians trying to be realistic - quite to the contrary, their ideas are often very abstract and do not initially appear to have any correspondence to the real world. Typically, however, mathematical ideas are eventually successfully applied to describe real phenomena […]"(Michael Guillen, "Bridges to Infinity: The Human Side of Mathematics", 1983)

"Moreover, joint occurrences tend to be better recalled than instances when the effect does not occur. The proneness to remember confirming instances, but to overlook disconfirming ones, further serves to convert, in thought, coincidences into causalities." (Albert Bandura, "Social Foundations of Thought and Action: A social cognitive theory", 1986)

"There is no coherent knowledge, i.e. no uniform comprehensive account of the world and the events in it. There is no comprehensive truth that goes beyond an enumeration of details, but there are many pieces of information, obtained in different ways from different sources and collected for the benefit of the curious. The best way of presenting such knowledge is the list - and the oldest scientific works were indeed lists of facts, parts, coincidences, problems in several specialized domains." (Paul K Feyerabend, "Farewell to Reason", 1987)

"A tendency to drastically underestimate the frequency of coincidences is a prime characteristic of innumerates, who generally accord great significance to correspondences of all sorts while attributing too little significance to quite conclusive but less flashy statistical evidence." (John A Paulos, "Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and its Consequences", 1988)

"The law of truly large numbers states: With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen." (Frederick Mosteller, "Methods for Studying Coincidences", Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 84, 1989)

"Most coincidences are simply chance events that turn out to be far more probable than many people imagine." (Ivars Peterson, "The Jungles of Randomness: A Mathematical Safari", 1997)

"Often, we use the word random loosely to describe something that is disordered, irregular, patternless, or unpredictable. We link it with chance, probability, luck, and coincidence. However, when we examine what we mean by random in various contexts, ambiguities and uncertainties inevitably arise. Tackling the subtleties of randomness allows us to go to the root of what we can understand of the universe we inhabit and helps us to define the limits of what we can know with certainty." (Ivars Peterson, "The Jungles of Randomness: A Mathematical Safari", 1998)

"Randomness is the very stuff of life, looming large in our everyday experience. […] The fascination of randomness is that it is pervasive, providing the surprising coincidences, bizarre luck, and unexpected twists that color our perception of everyday events." (Edward Beltrami, "What is Random?: Chaos and Order in Mathematics and Life", 1999)

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