21 April 2021

On Measurement (2000-2001)

"According to quantum theory, the ground state, or lowest energy state, of a pendulum is not just sitting at the lowest energy point, pointing straight down. That would have both a definite position and a definite velocity, zero. This would be a violation of the uncertainty principle, which forbids the precise measurement of both position and velocity at the same time. The uncertainty in the position multiplied by the uncertainty in the momentum must be greater than a certain quantity, known as Planck's constant - a number that is too long to keep writing down, so we use a symbol for it: ħ." (Stephen W Hawking, "The Universe in a Nutshell", 2001)

"To describe how quantum theory shapes time and space, it is helpful to introduce the idea of imaginary time. Imaginary time sounds like something from science fiction, but it is a well-defined mathematical concept: time measured in what are called imaginary numbers. […] Imaginary numbers can then be represented as corresponding to positions on a vertical line: zero is again in the middle, positive imaginary numbers plotted upward, and negative imaginary numbers plotted downward. Thus imaginary numbers can be thought of as a new kind of number at right angles to ordinary real numbers. Because they are a mathematical construct, they don't need a physical realization […]" (Stephen W Hawking, "The Universe in a Nutshell", 2001)

"At the basis of the impossibility of making reliable predictions for systems such as the atmosphere, there is a phenomenon known today as the butterfly effect. This deals with the progressive limitless magnification of the slightest imprecision (error) present in the measurement of the initial data (the incomplete knowledge of the current state of each molecule of air), which, although in principle negligible, will increasingly expand during the course of the model’s evolution, until it renders any prediction on future states (atmospheric weather conditions when the forecast refers to more than a few days ahead) completely insignificant, as these states appear completely different from the calculated ones." (Cristoforo S Bertuglia & Franco Vaio, "Nonlinearity, Chaos, and Complexity: The Dynamics of Natural and Social Systems", 2003)

"Inaccurate and imprecise measurements or a poor or unrealistic sampling design can result in the generation of inappropriate hypotheses. Measurement errors or a poor experimental design can give a false or misleading outcome that may result in the incorrect retention or rejection of an hypothesis." (Steve McKillup, "Statistics Explained: An Introductory Guide for Life Scientists", 2005

"Statistics is the branch of mathematics that uses observations and measurements called data to analyze, summarize, make inferences, and draw conclusions based on the data gathered." (Allan G Bluman, "Probability Demystified", 2005)

"This phenomenon, common to chaos theory, is also known as sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Just a small change in the initial conditions can drastically change the long-term behavior of a system. Such a small amount of difference in a measurement might be considered experimental noise, background noise, or an inaccuracy of the equipment." (Greg Rae, Chaos Theory: A Brief Introduction, 2006)

"The system is highly sensitive to some small changes and blows them up into major alterations in weather patterns. This is popularly known as the butterfly effect in that it is possible for a butterfly to flap its wings in São Paolo, so making a tiny change to air pressure there, and for this tiny change to escalate up into a hurricane over Miami. You would have to measure the flapping of every butterfly’s wings around the earth with infinite precision in order to be able to make long-term forecasts. The tiniest error made in these measurements could produce spurious forecasts. However, short-term forecasts are possible because it takes time for tiny differences to escalate."  (Ralph D Stacey, "Strategic Management and Organisational Dynamics: The Challenge of Complexity" 5th Ed., 2007)

"Much of what we deal with in ecology are rates of change of biological objects: growth of an organism, decay of a dead leaf, fluctuations in populations, accumulation or erosion of soil, increases or decreases in lake levels, etc. But rates of change are some of the hardest things to measure. What we measure are static properties such as the sizes of objects at different times and then infer that change has taken place between those two measurements." (John Pastor, "Mathematical Ecology of Populations and Ecosystems", 2008)

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