31 January 2026

On Models: On Mathematical Models (2000-2009)

"The role of graphs in probabilistic and statistical modeling is threefold: (1) to provide convenient means of expressing substantive assumptions; (2) to facilitate economical representation of joint probability functions; and (3) to facilitate efficient inferences from observations." (Judea Pearl,Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference", 2000)

"A mathematical model uses mathematical symbols to describe and explain the represented system. Normally used to predict and control, these models provide a high degree of abstraction but also of precision in their application." (Lars Skyttner, "General Systems Theory: Ideas and Applications", 2001)

“A model is an imitation of reality and a mathematical model is a particular form of representation. We should never forget this and get so distracted by the model that we forget the real application which is driving the modelling. In the process of model building we are translating our real world problem into an equivalent mathematical problem which we solve and then attempt to interpret. We do this to gain insight into the original real world situation or to use the model for control, optimization or possibly safety studies." (Ian T Cameron & Katalin Hangos, “Process Modelling and Model Analysis”, 2001)

“Formulation of a mathematical model is the first step in the process of analyzing the behaviour of any real system. However, to produce a useful model, one must first adopt a set of simplifying assumptions which have to be relevant in relation to the physical features of the system to be modelled and to the specific information one is interested in. Thus, the aim of modelling is to produce an idealized description of reality, which is both expressible in a tractable mathematical form and sufficiently close to reality as far as the physical mechanisms of interest are concerned.” (Francois Axisa, “Discrete Systems” Vol. I, 2001)

"[…] interval mathematics and fuzzy logic together can provide a promising alternative to mathematical modeling for many physical systems that are too vague or too complicated to be described by simple and crisp mathematical formulas or equations. When interval mathematics and fuzzy logic are employed, the interval of confidence and the fuzzy membership functions are used as approximation measures, leading to the so-called fuzzy systems modeling." (Guanrong Chen & Trung Tat Pham, "Introduction to Fuzzy Sets, Fuzzy Logic, and Fuzzy Control Systems", 2001)

"Modeling, in a general sense, refers to the establishment of a description of a system (a plant, a process, etc.) in mathematical terms, which characterizes the input-output behavior of the underlying system. To describe a physical system […] we have to use a mathematical formula or equation that can represent the system both qualitatively and quantitatively. Such a formulation is a mathematical representation, called a mathematical model, of the physical system." (Guanrong Chen & Trung Tat Pham, "Introduction to Fuzzy Sets, Fuzzy Logic, and Fuzzy Control Systems", 2001)

"One might think this means that imaginary numbers are just a mathematical game having nothing to do with the real world. From the viewpoint of positivist philosophy, however, one cannot determine what is real. All one can do is find which mathematical models describe the universe we live in. It turns out that a mathematical model involving imaginary time predicts not only effects we have already observed but also effects we have not been able to measure yet nevertheless believe in for other reasons. So what is real and what is imaginary? Is the distinction just in our minds?" (Stephen W Hawking, "The Universe in a Nutshell", 2001)

“What is a mathematical model? One basic answer is that it is the formulation in mathematical terms of the assumptions and their consequences believed to underlie a particular ‘real world’ problem. The aim of mathematical modeling is the practical application of mathematics to help unravel the underlying mechanisms involved in, for example, economic, physical, biological, or other systems and processes.” (John A Adam, “Mathematics in Nature”, 2003)

“Mathematical modeling is as much ‘art’ as ‘science’: it requires the practitioner to (i) identify a so-called ‘real world’ problem (whatever the context may be); (ii) formulate it in mathematical terms (the ‘word problem’ so beloved of undergraduates); (iii) solve the problem thus formulated (if possible; perhaps approximate solutions will suffice, especially if the complete problem is intractable); and (iv) interpret the solution in the context of the original problem.” (John A Adam, “Mathematics in Nature”, 2003)

"Do I claim that everything that is not smooth is fractal? That fractals suffice to solve every problem of science? Not in the least. What I'm asserting very strongly is that, when some real thing is found to be un-smooth, the next mathematical model to try is fractal or multi-fractal. A complicated phenomenon need not be fractal, but finding that a phenomenon is 'not even fractal' is bad news, because so far nobody has invested anywhere near my effort in identifying and creating new techniques valid beyond fractals. Since roughness is everywhere, fractals - although they do not apply to everything - are present everywhere. And very often the same techniques apply in areas that, by every other account except geometric structure, are separate." (Benoît Mandelbrot, "A Theory of Roughness", 2004) 

"Fuzzy models can provide good numerical approximation of functions as well as linguistic information over the behavior of the functions. […] Fuzzy models with embedded linguistic interpretability are useful to extract knowledge from data. This knowledge is represented as a set of IF–THEN rules where the antecedents and the consequences are semantically meaningful." (Jairo Espinosa et al, "Fuzzy Logic, Identification and Predictive Control", 2005)

"Although fiction is not fact, paradoxically we need some fictions, particularly mathematical ideas and highly idealized models, to describe, explain, and predict facts.  This is not because the universe is mathematical, but because our brains invent or use refined and law-abiding fictions, not only for intellectual pleasure but also to construct conceptual models of reality." (Mario Bunge, "Chasing Reality: Strife over Realism", 2006)

"Chaotic system is a deterministic dynamical system exhibiting irregular, seemingly random behavior. Two trajectories of a chaotic system starting close to each other will diverge after some time (such an unstable behavior is often called 'sensitive dependence on initial conditions'). Mathematically, chaotic systems are characterized by local instability and global boundedness of the trajectories. Since local instability of a linear system implies unboundedness (infinite growth) of its solutions, chaotic system should be necessarily nonlinear, i.e., should be described by a nonlinear mathematical model." (Alexander L Fradkov, "Cybernetical Physics: From Control of Chaos to Quantum Control", 2007)

"In order to understand how mathematics is applied to understanding of the real world it is convenient to subdivide it into the following three modes of functioning: model, theory, metaphor. A mathematical model describes a certain range of phenomena qualitatively or quantitatively. […] A (mathematical) metaphor, when it aspires to be a cognitive tool, postulates that some complex range of phenomena might be compared to a mathematical construction." (Yuri I Manin," Mathematics as Metaphor: Selected Essays of Yuri I. Manin", 2007)

"The dichotomy of mathematical vs. statistical modeling says more about the culture of modeling and how different disciplines go about thinking about models than about how we should actually model ecological systems. A mathematician is more likely to produce a deterministic, dynamic process model without thinking very much about noise and uncertainty (e.g. the ordinary differential equations that make up the Lotka-Volterra predator prey model). A statistician, on the other hand, is more likely to produce a stochastic but static model, that treats noise and uncertainty carefully but focuses more on static patterns than on the dynamic processes that produce them (e.g. linear regression)." (Ben Bolker, "Ecological Models and Data in R", 2007)

"A science presents us with representations of the phenomena through artifacts, both abstract, such as theories and mathematical models, and concrete such as graphs, tables, charts, and ‘table-top’ models. These representations do not form a haphazard compilation though any unity, in the range of representations made available, is visible mainly at the more abstract levels." (Bas C van Fraassen, "Scientific Representation: Paradoxes of Perspective", 2008)

"It is impossible to construct a model that provides an entirely accurate picture of network behavior. Statistical models are almost always based on idealized assumptions, such as independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) interarrival times, and it is often difficult to capture features such as machine breakdowns, disconnected links, scheduled repairs, or uncertainty in processing rates." (Sean Meyn, "Control Techniques for Complex Networks", 2008)

"Therefore, mathematical ecology does not deal directly with natural objects. Instead, it deals with the mathematical objects and operations we offer as analogs of nature and natural processes. These mathematical models do not contain all information about nature that we may know, but only what we think are the most pertinent for the problem at hand. In mathematical modeling, we have abstracted nature into simpler form so that we have some chance of understanding it. Mathematical ecology helps us understand the logic of our thinking about nature to help us avoid making plausible arguments that may not be true or only true under certain restrictions. It helps us avoid wishful thinking about how we would like nature to be in favor of rigorous thinking about how nature might actually work. (John Pastor, "Mathematical Ecology of Populations and Ecosystems", 2008)

"Much of the recorded knowledge of physics and engineering is written in the form of mathematical models. These mathematical models form the foundations of our understanding of the universe we live in. Furthermore, nearly all of the existing technology, in one way or another, rests on these models. To the extent that we are surrounded by evidence of the technology working and being reliable, human confidence in the validity of the underlying mathematical models is all but unshakable." (Jerzy A Filar, "Mathematical Models", 2009)

"To understand, how noise is related to scale-freeness, we have to do some mathematics again. Noise is usually characterized by a mathematical trick. The seemingly random fluctuation of the signal is regarded as a sum of sinusoidal waves. The components of the million waves giving the final noise structure are characterized by their frequency. To describe noise, we plot the contribution (called spectral density) of the various waves we use to model the noise as a function of their frequency. This transformation is called a Fourier transformation [...]" (Péter Csermely, "Weak Links: The Universal Key to the Stabilityof Networks and Complex Systems", 2009)

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