09 January 2026

On Probability (From Fiction to Science-Fiction)

"That is probable which for the most part usually comes to pass, or which is a part of the ordinary beliefs of mankind, or which contains in itself some resemblance to these qualities, whether such resemblance be true or false." (Marcus T Cicero, "De Inventione", cca. 86–84 BC)

"Take away probability, and you can no longer please the world; give probability, and you can no longer displease it." (Blaise Pascal, "Thoughts", 1670)

"Ignorance gives one a large range of probabilities." (George Eliot, "Daniel Deronda", 1876)

"When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." (Arthur C Doyle, "The Sign of Four", 1890

"Every probability - and most of our common, working beliefs are probabilities - is provided with buffers at both ends, which break the force of opposite opinions clashing against it […]" (Oliver W Holmes, "The Autocrat of the Breakfast-Table", 1891) 

"It is more than possible; it is probable." (Arthur C Doyle, "The Memoirs of Sherlock Holmes", 1893)

"If everything, everything were known, statistical estimates would be unnecessary. The science of probability gives mathematical expression to our ignorance, not to our wisdom." (Samuel R Delany, "Time Considered as a Helix of Semi-Precious Stones", 1969)

"People are entirely too disbelieving of coincidence. They are far too ready to dismiss it and to build arcane structures of extremely rickety substance in order to avoid it. I, on the other hand, see coincidence everywhere as an inevitable consequence of the laws of probability, according to which having no unusual coincidence is far more unusual than any coincidence could possibly be." (Isaac Asimov, "The Planet That Wasn't", 1976)

"In the real world irrational things happened, impossible coincidences happened, because probability required that coincidences rarely, but not never, occur." (Orson Scott Card, "Ender’s Game", 1985)

"One of the elementary rules of nature is that, in the absence of a law prohibiting an event or phenomenon, it is bound to occur with some degree of probability. To put it simply and crudely: Anything that can happen does happen." (Kenneth W Ford)

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On Probability (From Fiction to Science-Fiction)

"That is probable which for the most part usually comes to pass, or which is a part of the ordinary beliefs of mankind, or which contai...