25 January 2021

On Hypotheses (1870-1889)

"Mathematics is not the discoverer of laws, for it is not induction; neither is it the framer of theories, for it is not hypothesis; but it is the judge over both, and it is the arbiter to which each must refer its claims; and neither law can rule nor theory explain without the sanction of mathematics." (Benjamin Peirce, "Linear Associative Algebra", American Journal of Mathematics Vol. 4, 1870) 

"The great tragedy of Science - the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact." (Thomas H Huxley, "Biogenesis and abiogenesis", [address] 1870)

"[…] wrong hypotheses, rightly worked from, have produced more useful results than unguided observation." (Augustus de Morgan, "A Budget of Paradoxes", 1872)

"Modern discoveries have not been made by large collections of facts, with subsequent discussion, separation, and resulting deduction of a truth thus rendered perceptible. A few facts have suggested an hypothesis, which means a supposition, proper to explain them. The necessary results of this supposition are worked out, and then, and not till then, other facts are examined to see if their ulterior results are found in Nature." (Augustus de Morgan, "A Budget of Paradoxes", 1872)

"An hypothesis is only a habit - a habit of looking through a glass of one peculiar colour, which imparts its hue to all around it." (Frederick Marryat, "The King's Own", 1873) 

"Hence all these theories lead to the conception of a medium in which the propagation takes place, and if we admit this medium as an hypothesis, I think it ought to occupy a prominent place in our investigations, and that we ought to endeavour to construct a mental representation of all the details of its action, and this has been my constant aim in this treatise."(James C Maxwell, "Treatise on Electricity and Magnetism" Vol. II, 1873)

"By deductive reasoning and calculation, we must endeavor to anticipate such new phenomena, especially those of a singular and exceptional nature, as would necessarily happen if the hypothesis be true." (William S Jevons, "The Principles of Science: A Treatise on Logic and Scientific Method", 1874) 

"Mathematics is a science of Observation, dealing with reals, precisely as all other sciences deal with reals. It would be easy to show that its Method is the same: that, like other sciences, having observed or discovered properties, which it classifies, generalises, co-ordinates and subordinates, it proceeds to extend discoveries by means of Hypothesis, Induction, Experiment and Deduction." (George H Lewes, "Problems of Life and Mind: The Method of Science and its Application", 1874)

"Summing up, then, it would seem as if the mind of the great discoverer must combine contradictory attributes. He must be fertile in theories and hypotheses, and yet full of facts and precise results of experience. He must entertain the feeblest analogies, and the merest guesses at truth, and yet he must hold them as worthless till they are verified in experiment. When there are any grounds of probability he must hold tenaciously to an old opinion, and yet he must be prepared at any moment to relinquish it when a clearly contradictory fact is encountered." (William S Jevons, "The Principles of Science: A Treatise on Logic and Scientific Method", 1874)

"The materialistic point of view in psychology can claim, at best, only the value of an heuristic hypothesis." (Wilhelm Wundt, "Principles of Physiological Psychology", 1874)

"It would be an error to suppose that the great discoverer seizes at once upon the truth, or has any unerring method of divining it. In all probability the errors of the great mind exceed in number those of the less vigorous one. Fertility of imagination and abundance of guesses at truth are among the first requisites of discovery; but the erroneous guesses must be many times as numerous as those that prove well founded. The weakest analogies, the most whimsical notions, the most apparently absurd theories, may pass through the teeming brain, and no record remain of more than the hundredth part. […] The truest theories involve suppositions which are inconceivable, and no limit can really be placed to the freedom of hypotheses." (W Stanley Jevons, "The Principles of Science: A Treatise on Logic and Scientific Method", 1877)

"A discoverer is a tester of scientific ideas; he must not only be able to imagine likely hypotheses, and to select suitable ones for investigation, but, as hypotheses may be true or untrue, he must also be competent to invent appropriate experiments for testing them, and to devise the requisite apparatus and arrangements." (George Gore, "The Art of Scientific Discovery", 1878)

"As long as the training of a naturalist enables him to trace the action only of a particular material system, without giving him the power of dealing with the general properties of all such systems, he must proceed by the method so often described in histories of science - he must imagine model after model of hypothetical apparatus, till he finds one which will do the required work. If this apparatus should afterwards be found capable of accounting for many of the known phenomena, and not demonstrably inconsistent with any of them, he is strongly tempted to conclude that his hypothesis is a fact, at least until an equally good rival hypothesis has been invented." (James C Maxwell, "Tait’s Thermodynamics", Nature Vol. XVII (431), 1878)

"The scientific discovery appears first as the hypothesis of an analogy; and science tends to become independent of the hypothesis." (William K Clifford, "Lectures and Essays", 1879)

"Mathematics is not the discoverer of laws, for it is not induction; neither is it the framer of theories, for it is not hypothesis; but it is the judge over both, and it is the arbiter to which each must refer its claims; and neither law can rule nor theory explain without the sanction of mathematics." (Benjamin Peirce, "Linear Associative Algebra", American Journal of Mathematics Vol. 4, 1881)

"There must be something in this molecular hypothesis and that as a mechanical symbol it is certainly not a mere hypothesis, but a reality." (William T Kelvin, "Baltimore Lectures on Molecular Dynamics and the Wave Theory, of Light", [lecture] 1884)

"Perfect readiness to reject a theory inconsistent with fact is a primary requisite of the philosophic mind. But it, would be a mistake to suppose that this candour has anything akin to fickleness; on the contrary, readiness to reject a false theory may be combined with a peculiar pertinacity and courage in maintaining an hypothesis as long as its falsity is not actually apparent." (William S Jevons, "The Principles of Science", 1887)

"This, it may be said, is no more than a hypothesis, but it satisfies the conditions of a legitimate hypothesis, by postulating the operation of no unknown or uncertain cause, but only of that force of precedent which in all times has been so strong to keep alive religious forms of which the original meaning is lost." (William R Smith, Lectures on the Religion of the Semites, 1889)

No comments:

Post a Comment

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

On Hypothesis Testing III

  "A little thought reveals a fact widely understood among statisticians: The null hypothesis, taken literally (and that’s the only way...