25 January 2021

On Hypotheses (-1749)

"We may assume the superiority ceteris paribus [other things being equal] of the demonstration which derives from fewer postulates or hypotheses." (Aristotle, "Posterior Analytics", cca. 400 BC)

"[…] it is not necessary that these hypotheses should be true, or even probably; but it is enough if they provide a calculus which fits the observations […]" (Andrew Osiander, "On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres", 1543)

"Yet I shall not deny that the number of phenomena which are happily explained by a given hypothesis may be so great that it may be taken as morally certain." (Gottfried W Leibniz, "On the Elements of Natural Science", cca. 1682–84)

"But the most powerful proof of the reality of phenomena (a proof which is, indeed, sufficient by itself) is success in predicting future phenomena from those which are past and present, whether the prediction be founded upon the success, so far, of a reason or hypothesis, or upon custom so far observed." (Gottfried W Leibniz, "De Modo Distinguendi phenomena realia ab imaginariis" ["On the Method of Distinguishing Real from Imaginary Phenomena"], cca. 1684)

"The art of discovering the causes of phenomena, or true hypothesis, is like the art of decyphering, in which an ingenious conjecture greatly shortens the road." (Gottfried W Leibniz, "New Essays Concerning Human Understanding", 1704) [published 1765]

"There is no method of reasoning more common, and yet none more blameable, than, in philosophical disputes, to endeavour the refutation of any hypothesis, by a pretence of its dangerous consequences to religion and morality. When any opinion leads to absurdities, it is certainly false; but it is not certain that an opinion is false, because it is of dangerous consequence. Such topics, therefore, ought entirely to be forborne; as serving nothing to the discovery of truth, but only to make the person of an antagonist odious." (David Hume, "An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding", 1748) 

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