On Statistics (2020-)

"Good statistics are not a trick, although they are a kind of magic. Good statistics are not smoke and mirrors; in fact, they help us see more clearly. Good statistics are like a telescope for an astronomer, a microscope for a bacteriologist, or an X-ray for a radiologist. If we are willing to let them, good statistics help us see things about the world around us and about ourselves - both large and small - that we would not be able to see in any other way." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"Ideally, a decision maker or a forecaster will combine the outside view and the inside view - or, similarly, statistics plus personal experience. But it’s much better to start with the statistical view, the outside view, and then modify it in the light of personal experience than it is to go the other way around. If you start with the inside view you have no real frame of reference, no sense of scale - and can easily come up with a probability that is ten times too large, or ten times too small." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"If we don’t understand the statistics, we’re likely to be badly mistaken about the way the world is. It is all too easy to convince ourselves that whatever we’ve seen with our own eyes is the whole truth; it isn’t. Understanding causation is tough even with good statistics, but hopeless without them. [...] And yet, if we understand only the statistics, we understand little. We need to be curious about the world that we see, hear, touch, and smell, as well as the world we can examine through a spreadsheet." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"If you study one group and assume that your results apply to other groups, this is extrapolation. If you think you are studying one group, but do not manage to obtain a representative sample of that group, this is a different problem. It is a problem so important in statistics that it has a special name: selection bias. Selection bias arises when the individuals that you sample for your study differ systematically from the population of individuals eligible for your study." (Carl T Bergstrom & Jevin D West, "Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World", 2020)

"The contradiction between what we see with our own eyes and what the statistics claim can be very real. […] The truth is more complicated. Our personal experiences should not be dismissed along with our feelings, at least not without further thought. Sometimes the statistics give us a vastly better way to understand the world; sometimes they mislead us. We need to be wise enough to figure out when the statistics are in conflict with everyday experience - and in those cases, which to believe." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"Without knowing the source and context, a particular statistic is worth little. Yet numbers and statistics appear rigorous and reliable simply by virtue of being quantitative, and have a tendency to spread." (Carl T Bergstrom & Jevin D West, "Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World", 2020)

"We are accustomed to intellectual diffusion taking place from the natural and physical sciences into the social sciences; certainly that is the direction taken for both calculus and the scientific method. But statistical graphics in particular, and statistics in general, took the reverse route." (Michael Friendly & Howard Wainer, "A History of Data Visualization and Graphic Communication", 2021)