"The calculation of probabilities is of the utmost value, […] but in statistical inquiries there is need not so much of mathematical subtlety as of a precise statement of all the circumstances. The possible contingencies are too numerous to be covered by a finite number of experiments, and exact calculation is, therefore, out of the question. Although nature has her habits, due to the recurrence of causes, they are general, not invariable. Yet empirical calculation, although it is inexact, may be adequate in affairs of practice." (Gottfried W Leibniz [letter to Bernoulli], 1703)
"The ideas imprinted on the senses by the Author of Nature are called real things: and those excited in the imagination being less regular, vivid and constant, are more properly termed ideas, or images of things, which they copy and represent. But then our sensations, be they never so vivid and distinct, are nevertheless ideas, that is, they exist in the mind, or are perceived by it, as truly as the ideas of its own framing. The ideas of sense are allowed to have more reality in them, that is, to be more strong, orderly, and coherent than the creatures of the mind; but this is no argument that they exist without the mind. They are also less dependent on the spirit, or thinking substance which perceives them, in that they are excited by the will of another and more powerful spirit: yet still they are ideas, and certainly no idea, whether faint or strong, can exist otherwise than in a mind perceiving it." (George Berkeley, "Principles of Human Knowledge", 1710)
"Further, it cannot escape anyone that for judging in this way about any event at all, it is not enough to use one or two trials, but rather a great number of trials is required. And sometimes the stupidest man - by some instinct of nature per se and by no previous instruction (this is truly amazing) - knows for sure that the more observations of this sort that are taken, the less the danger will be of straying from the mark." (Jacob Bernoulli, "The Art of Conjecturing", 1713)
"There is nothing in Nature that does more show the piercing Force of Human Understanding, the sublimity of its Speculations and deep researchers, than true Astronomy. It raises our Minds above our Senses, and even in contradiction to them, shows us the true System of the World: the faculty of Reason by which we have made these great discoveries in the Heavens must needs be derived from Heaven, since no Earthly Principle can attain so great a Perfection." (John Keill, "An Introduction to the True Astronomy", 1721)
"[…] it is from long experience chiefly that we are to expect the most certain rules of practice, yet it is withal to be remembered, that observations, and to put us upon the most probable means of improving any art, is to get the best insight we can into the nature and properties of those things which we are desirous to cultivate and improve." (Stephen Hales, "Vegetable Staticks", 1727)
"[…] our reasonings about the wonderful and intricate operations of Nature are so full of uncertainty, that, as the wise-man truly observes, hardly do we guess aright at the things that are upon earth, and with labour do we find the things that are before us." (Stephen Hales, "Vegetable Staticks", 1727)
"Probable evidence, in its very nature, affords but an imperfect kind of information, and is to be considered as relative only to beings of limited capacities. For nothing which is the possible object of knowledge, whether past, present, or future, can be probable to an infinite Intelligence; […] to us, probability is the very guide of life." (Joseph Butler, "The Analogy of Religion, Natural and Revealed, to the Constitution and Course of Nature", 1736)
"[…] the Author of Nature appears deliberate throughout His operations, accomplishing His natural ends by slow successive steps. And there is a plan of things beforehand laid out, which, from the nature of it, requires various systems of means, as well as length of time, in order to the carrying on its several parts into execution." (Joseph Butler, "The Analogy of Religion, Natural and Revealed, to the Constitution and Course of Nature", 1736)
"Nature is thrifty in all its actions." (Pierre L M Maupertuis, Accord de différentes lois de la nature qui avaient jusqu'ici paru incompatibles. Mémoires de l'Académie royale des Sciences, 1744)
"The laws of movement and of rest deduced from this principle being precisely the same as those observed in nature, we can admire the application of it to all phenomena. The movement of animals, the vegetative growth of plants [...] are only its consequences; and the spectacle of the universe becomes so much the grander, so much more beautiful, the worthier of its Author, when one knows that a small number of laws, most wisely established, suffice for all movements." (Pierre L M Maupertuis, "Les Loix du mouvement et du repos déduites d'un principe metaphysique", Histoire de l'Académie Royale des Sciences et des Belles Lettres, 1746)
"Is it not therefore the business of philosophy, in our present situation in the universe, to attempt to take in at once, in one view, the whole scheme of nature; but to extend, with great care and circumspection, our knowledge, by just steps, from sensible things as far as our observations or reasonings from them will carry us in our enquiries concerning either the greater motions and operations of nature, or her more subtle and hidden works." (Colin Maclaurin, "An Account of Sir Isaac Newton’s Philosophical Discoveries", 1748)
"It seems evident, that men are carried, by a natural instinct or prepossession, to repose faith in their senses; and that, without any reasoning, or even almost before the use of reason, we always suppose an external universe, which depends not on our perception, but would exist, though we and every sensible creature were absent or annihilated. […] It seems also evident, that, when men follow this blind and powerful instinct of nature, they always suppose the very images, presented by the senses, to be the external objects." (David Hume, "An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding", 1748)
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