10 April 2022

On Criteria I

"[Precision] is the very soul of science; and its attainment afford the only criterion, or at least the best, of the truth of theories, and the correctness of experiments." (John F W Herschel, "A Preliminary Discourse on the Study of Natural Philosophy", 1830)

"A primary goal of any learning model is to predict correctly the learning curve - proportions of correct responses versus trials. Almost any sensible model with two or three free parameters, however, can closely fit the curve, and so other criteria must be invoked when one is comparing several models." (Robert R Bush & Frederick Mosteller, "A Comparison of Eight Models?", Studies in Mathematical Learning Theory, 1959)

"A satisfactory prediction of the sequential properties of learning data from a single experiment is by no means a final test of a model. Numerous other criteria - and some more demanding - can be specified. For example, a model with specific numerical parameter values should be invariant to changes in independent variables that explicitly enter in the model." (Robert R Bush & Frederick Mosteller,"A Comparison of Eight Models?", Studies in Mathematical Learning Theory, 1959)

"[...] sciences do not try to explain, they hardly even try to interpret, they mainly make models. By a model is meant a mathematical construct which, with the addition of certain verbal interpretations, describes observed phenomena. The justification of such a mathematical construct is solely and precisely that it is expected to work - that is, correctly to describe phenomena from a reasonably wide area. Furthermore, it must satisfy certain aesthetic criteria - that is, in relation to how much it describes, it must be rather simple.” (John von Neumann, "Method in the physical sciences", 1961)

"Adaptive system - whether on the biological, psychological, or sociocultural level - must manifest (1) some degree of 'plasticity' and 'irritability' vis-a-vis its environment such that it carries on a constant interchange with acting on and reacting to it; (2) some source or mechanism for variety, to act as a potential pool of adaptive variability to meet the problem of mapping new or more detailed variety and constraints in a changeable environment; (3) a set of selective criteria or mechanisms against which the 'variety pool' may be sifted into those variations in the organization or system that more closely map the environment and those that do not; and (4) an arrangement for preserving and/or propagating these 'successful' mappings." (Walter F Buckley," Sociology and modern systems theory", 1967)

"In most engineering problems, particularly when solving optimization problems, one must have the opportunity of comparing different variants quantitatively. It is therefore important to be able to state a clear-cut quantitative criterion." (Yakov Khurgin, "Did You Say Mathematics?", 1974)

"The principal aim of physical theories is understanding. A theory's ability to find a number is merely a useful criterion for a correct understanding." (Yuri I Manin, "Mathematics and Physics", 1981)

"It is often the scientist’s experience that he senses the nearness of truth when such connections are envisioned. A connection is a step toward simplification, unification. Simplicity is indeed often the sign of truth and a criterion of beauty." (Mahlon B Hoagland, "Toward the Habit of Truth", 1990)

"A model for simulating dynamic system behavior requires formal policy descriptions to specify how individual decisions are to be made. Flows of information are continuously converted into decisions and actions. No plea about the inadequacy of our understanding of the decision-making processes can excuse us from estimating decision-making criteria. To omit a decision point is to deny its presence - a mistake of far greater magnitude than any errors in our best estimate of the process." (Jay W Forrester, "Policies, decisions and information sources for modeling", 1994)

"The amount of understanding produced by a theory is determined by how well it meets the criteria of adequacy - testability, fruitfulness, scope, simplicity, conservatism - because these criteria indicate the extent to which a theory systematizes and unifies our knowledge." (Theodore Schick Jr., "How to Think about Weird Things: Critical Thinking for a New Age", 1995)

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