Catastrophe Theory IV

"The catastrophe model is at the same time much less and much more than a scientific theory; one should consider it as a language, a method, which permits classification and systematization of given empirical data [...] In fact, any phenomenon at all can be explained by a suitable model from catastrophe theory." (René F Thom, 1973)

"Catastrophe theory (in particular its essential concept of structural stability) is really a paradigm rather than a theory. It has attracted so much attention and generated so much argument because its scope and application appear to be virtually unlimited." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"Is catastrophe theory correct? In its mathematics, yes; in the natural philosophy that inspired it and the scientific applications that flow from it, the only possible answer is that it's too soon to say. There is always a chance of error whenever we try to capture any aspect of reality in mathematical symbols, and another chance of error when (after working with the symbols) we use them to generate descriptions or predictions of reality." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"Is the [catastrophe] theory useful? in the rigorous applications, yes; in the illustrations, sometimes; in the 'invocations', both yes and no. Yes, because catastrophe theory provides a common vocabulary for features of many different processes. Someday it may be as natural to speak of a 'cusp situation' or a 'butterfly compromise' as it is today to speak of the 'point of diminishing returns' or of a 'quantum jump'. No, because when the theory is invoked for the suggestiveness of its images, it cannot usually tell us anything we did not know before (although it can make explicit certain features that other models tend to neglect)." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"The most widely used mathematical tools in the social sciences are statistical, and the prevalence of statistical methods has given rise to theories so abstract and so hugely complicated that they seem a discipline in themselves, divorced from the world outside learned journals. Statistical theories usually assume that the behavior of large numbers of people is a smooth, average 'summing-up' of behavior over a long period of time. It is difficult for them to take into account the sudden, critical points of important qualitative change. The statistical approach leads to models that emphasize the quantitative conditions needed for equilibrium-a balance of wages and prices, say, or of imports and exports. These models are ill suited to describe qualitative change and social discontinuity, and it is here that catastrophe theory may be especially helpful." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"The major strength of catastrophe theory is to provide a qualitative topology of the general structure of discontinuities. Its major weakness is that it frequently is not associated with speciific models allowing precise quantitative prediction, although such are possible in principle." (J Barkley Rosser Jr., "From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities", 1991)

"The key to making discontinuity emerge from smoothness is the observation that the overall behavior of both static and dynamical systems is governed by what's happening near the critical points. These are the points at which the gradient of the function vanishes. Away from the critical points, the Implicit Function Theorem tells us that the behavior is boring and predictable, linear, in fact. So it's only at the critical points that the system has the possibility of breaking out of this mold to enter a new mode of operation. It's at the critical points that we have the opportunity to effect dramatic shifts in the system's behavior by 'nudging' lightly the system dynamics, one type of nudge leading to a limit cycle, another to a stable equilibrium, and yet a third type resulting in the system's moving into the domain of a 'strange attractor'. It's by these nudges in the equations of motion that the germ of the idea of discontinuity from smoothness blossoms forth into the modern theory of singularities, catastrophes and bifurcations, wherein we see how to make discontinuous outputs emerge from smooth inputs." (John L Casti, "Reality Rules: Picturing the world in mathematics", 1992)

On Singularity I

"It is possible to pass continuously from any non-singular curve to any other such curve by interposition of other curves in such a way that during this procedure one will meet no other occurrence of singularities, apart from a finite number of times a curve with an ordinary double point, no matter whether the curve has at that point real or imaginary branches." (Felix Klein, "Elementary Mathematics from a Higher Standpoint" Vol III: "Precision Mathematics and Approximation Mathematics", 1928)

"A singularity is a place where the classical concepts of space and time break down as do all the known laws of physics." (Stephen W Hawking, "Breakdown of Predictability in Gravitational Collapse", Physical Review D, 1976) 

"'Catastrophe theory' denotes both a purely mathematical discipline describing certain singularities of smooth maps, as well as the concerted effort to apply these theorems to a wide variety of problems in fields ranging from linguistics and psychology to embryology, evolution, physics, and engineering." (Héctor J Sussmann & Raphael S Zahler, "Catastrophe Theory as Applied to the Social and Biological Sciences: A Critique" Synthese Vol. 37 (2), 1978)

"In fact, all our theories of science are formulated on the assumption that space-time is smooth and nearly flat, so they break down at the big bang singularity, where the curvature of space-time is infinite." (Stephen W Hawking, "A Brief History of Time", 1988)

"The key to making discontinuity emerge from smoothness is the observation that the overall behavior of both static and dynamical systems is governed by what's happening near the critical points. These are the points at which the gradient of the function vanishes. Away from the critical points, the Implicit Function Theorem tells us that the behavior is boring and predictable, linear, in fact. So it's only at the critical points that the system has the possibility of breaking out of this mold to enter a new mode of operation. It's at the critical points that we have the opportunity to effect dramatic shifts in the system's behavior by 'nudging' lightly the system dynamics, one type of nudge leading to a limit cycle, another to a stable equilibrium, and yet a third type resulting in the system's moving into the domain of a 'strange attractor'. It's by these nudges in the equations of motion that the germ of the idea of discontinuity from smoothness blossoms forth into the modern theory of singularities, catastrophes and bifurcations, wherein we see how to make discontinuous outputs emerge from smooth inputs." (John L Casti, "Reality Rules: Picturing the world in mathematics", 1992)

"Catastrophe theory is a local theory, telling us what a function looks like in a small neighborhood of a critical point; it says nothing about what the function may be doing far away from the singularity. Yet most of the applications of the theory [...] involve extrapolating these rock-solid, local results to regions that may well be distant in time and space from the singularity." (John L Casti, "Five Golden Rules", 1995)

"When we examine the modeling literature, its most striking aspect is the predominance of 'flat' linear models. Why is this the case? After all, from a singularity theory viewpoint these linear objects are mathematical rarities. On mathematical grounds we should certainly not expect to see them put forth as credible representations of reality. Yet they are. And the reason is simple: linearity is a neutral assumption that leads to mathematically tractable models. So unless there is good reason to do otherwise, why not use a linear model?" (John L Casti, "Five Golden Rules", 1995)

"The best way to think about singularities is as boundaries or edges of spacetime. In this respect they are not, technically, part of spacetime itself." (Paul Davies," Cosmic Jackpot: Why Our Universe Is Just Right for Life", 2007)

Catastrophe theory can be thought of as a link between classical analysis, dynamical systems, differential topology (including singularity theory), modern bifurcation theory and the theory of complex systems. [...] The name ‘catastrophe theory’ is used for a combination of singularity theory and its applications. [...] From the didactical point of view, there are two main positions for courses in catastrophe theory at university level: Trying to teach the theory as a perfect axiomatic system consisting of exact definitions, theorems and proofs or trying to teach mathematics as it can be developed from historical or from natural problems. (Werner Sanns, "Catastrophe Theory" [Mathematics of Complexity and Dynamical Systems, 2012])

"Classification is only one of the mathematical aspects of catastrophe theory. Another is stability. The stable states of natural systems are the ones that we can observe over a longer period of time. But the stable states of a system, which can be described by potential functions and their singularities, can become unstable if the potentials are changed by perturbations. So stability problems in nature lead to mathematical questions concerning the stability of the potential functions." (Werner Sanns, "Catastrophe Theory" [Mathematics of Complexity and Dynamical Systems, 2012])

"The primary aspects of the theory of complex manifolds are the geometric structure itself, its topological structure, coordinate systems, etc., and holomorphic functions and mappings and their properties. Algebraic geometry over the complex number field uses polynomial and rational functions of complex variables as the primary tools, but the underlying topological structures are similar to those that appear in complex manifold theory, and the nature of singularities in both the analytic and algebraic settings is also structurally very similar." (Raymond O Wells Jr, "Differential and Complex Geometry: Origins, Abstractions and Embeddings", 2017)

"A theory that involves singularities and involves them unavoidably, moreover, carries within itself the seeds of its own destruction." (Peter Bergmann)

"It is more a philosophy than mathematics, and even as a philosophy it doesn't explain the real world [...] as mathematics, it brings together two of the most basic ideas in modern math: the study of dynamic systems and the study of the singularities of maps. Together, they cover a very wide area - but catastrophe theory brings them together in an arbitrary and constrained way." (Steven Smale)

On Attractors II

"One reason nature pleases us is its endless use of a few simple principles: the cube-square law; fractals; spirals; the way that waves, wheels, trig functions, and harmonic oscillators are alike; the importance of ratios between small primes; bilateral symmetry; Fibonacci series, golden sections, quantization, strange attractors, path-dependency, all the things that show up in places where you don’t expect them [...] these rules work with and against each other ceaselessly at all levels, so that out of their intrinsic simplicity comes the rich complexity of the world around us. That tension - between the simple rules that describe the world and the complex world we see - is itself both simple in execution and immensely complex in effect. Thus exactly the levels, mixtures, and relations of complexity that seem to be hardwired into the pleasure centers of the human brain - or are they, perhaps, intrinsic to intelligence and perception, pleasant to anything that can see, think, create? - are the ones found in the world around us." (John Barnes, Mother of Storms, 1994)

"As with subtle bifurcations, catastrophes also involve a control parameter. When the value of that parameter is below a bifurcation point, the system is dominated by one attractor. When the value of that parameter is above the bifurcation point, another attractor dominates. Thus the fundamental characteristic of a catastrophe is the sudden disappearance of one attractor and its basin, combined with the dominant emergence of another attractor. Any type of attractor static, periodic, or chaotic can be involved in this. Elementary catastrophe theory involves static attractors, such as points. Because multidimensional surfaces can also attract (together with attracting points on these surfaces), we refer to them more generally as attracting hypersurfaces, limit sets, or simply attractors." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"Fundamental to catastrophe theory is the idea of a bifurcation. A bifurcation is an event that occurs in the evolution of a dynamic system in which the characteristic behavior of the system is transformed. This occurs when an attractor in the system changes in response to change in the value of a parameter. A catastrophe is one type of bifurcation. The broader framework within which catastrophes are located is called dynamical bifurcation theory." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"Knowledge, truth, and information flow in networks and swarm systems. I have always been interested in the texture of scientific knowledge because it appears to be lumpy and uneven. Much of what we collectively know derives from a few small areas, yet between them lie vast deserts of ignorance. I can interpret that observation now as the effect of positive feedback and attractors. A little bit of knowledge illuminates much around it, and that new illumination feeds on itself, so one corner explodes. The reverse also holds true: ignorance breeds ignorance. Areas where nothing is known, everyone avoids, so nothing is discovered. The result is an uneven landscape of empty know-nothing interrupted by hills of self-organized knowledge." (Kevin Kelly, "Out of Control: The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems and the Economic World", 1995) 

"Self-organization is seen as the process by which systems of many components tend to reach a particular state, a set of cycling states, or a small volume of their state space (attractor basins), with no external interference." (Luis M Rocha, "Syntactic Autonomy", Proceedings of the Joint Conference on the Science and Technology of Intelligent Systems, 1998)

"Indeed a deterministic die behaves very much as if it has six attractors, the steady states corresponding to its six faces, all of whose basins are intertwined. For technical reasons that can't quite be true, but it is true that deterministic systems with intertwined basins are wonderful substitutes for dice; in fact they're super-dice, behaving even more ‘randomly’ - apparently - than ordinary dice. Super-dice are so chaotic that they are uncomputable. Even if you know the equations for the system perfectly, then given an initial state, you cannot calculate which attractor it will end up on. The tiniest error of approximation – and there will always be such an error - will change the answer completely." (Ian Stewart, "Does God Play Dice: The New Mathematics of Chaos", 2002)

"A sudden change in the evolutive dynamics of a system (a ‘surprise’) can emerge, apparently violating a symmetrical law that was formulated by making a reduction on some (or many) finite sequences of numerical data. This is the crucial point. As we have said on a number of occasions, complexity emerges as a breakdown of symmetry (a system that, by evolving with continuity, suddenly passes from one attractor to another) in laws which, expressed in mathematical form, are symmetrical. Nonetheless, this breakdown happens. It is the surprise, the paradox, a sort of butterfly effect that can highlight small differences between numbers that are very close to one another in the continuum of real numbers; differences that may evade the experimental interpretation of data, but that may increasingly amplify in the system’s dynamics." (Cristoforo S Bertuglia & Franco Vaio, "Nonlinearity, Chaos, and Complexity: The Dynamics of Natural and Social Systems", 2003)

"Physically, the stability of the dynamics is characterized by the sensitivity to initial conditions. This sensitivity can be determined for statistically stationary states, e.g. for the motion on an attractor. If this motion demonstrates sensitive dependence on initial conditions, then it is chaotic. In the popular literature this is often called the 'Butterfly Effect', after the famous 'gedankenexperiment' of Edward Lorenz: if a perturbation of the atmosphere due to a butterfly in Brazil induces a thunderstorm in Texas, then the dynamics of the atmosphere should be considered as an unpredictable and chaotic one. By contrast, stable dependence on initial conditions means that the dynamics is regular." (Ulrike Feudel et al, "Strange Nonchaotic Attractors", 2006)

"Although the potential for chaos resides in every system, chaos, when it emerges, frequently stays within the bounds of its attractor(s): No point or pattern of points is ever repeated, but some form of patterning emerges, rather than randomness. Life scientists in different areas have noticed that life seems able to balance order and chaos at a place of balance known as the edge of chaos. Observations from both nature and artificial life suggest that the edge of chaos favors evolutionary adaptation." (Terry Cooke-Davies et al, "Exploring the Complexity of Projects", 2009)

"Strange attractors, unlike regular ones, are geometrically very complicated, as revealed by the evolution of a small phase-space volume. For instance, if the attractor is a limit cycle, a small two-dimensional volume does not change too much its shape: in a direction it maintains its size, while in the other it shrinks till becoming a 'very thin strand' with an almost constant length. In chaotic systems, instead, the dynamics continuously stretches and folds an initial small volume transforming it into a thinner and thinner 'ribbon' with an exponentially increasing length." (Massimo Cencini et al, "Chaos: From Simple Models to Complex Systems", 2010)

On Critical Points I

"From its beginning critical point theory has been concerned with mutual relations between topology and geometric analysis, including differential geometry. Although it may have seemed to many to have been directed in its initial years toward applications of topology to analysis, one now sees that the road from topology to geometric analysis is a two-way street. Today the methods of critical point theory enter into the foundations of almost all studies of analysis or geometry 'in the large'." (Marston Morse & Stewart S Cairns, "Critical Point Theory in Global Analysis and Differential Topology: An Introduction", 1969)

"The key to making discontinuity emerge from smoothness is the observation that the overall behavior of both static and dynamical systems is governed by what's happening near the critical points. These are the points at which the gradient of the function vanishes. Away from the critical points, the Implicit Function Theorem tells us that the behavior is boring and predictable, linear, in fact. So it's only at the critical points that the system has the possibility of breaking out of this mold to enter a new mode of operation. It's at the critical points that we have the opportunity to effect dramatic shifts in the system's behavior by 'nudging' lightly the system dynamics, one type of nudge leading to a limit cycle, another to a stable equilibrium, and yet a third type resulting in the system's moving into the domain of a 'strange attractor'. It's by these nudges in the equations of motion that the germ of the idea of discontinuity from smoothness blossoms forth into the modern theory of singularities, catastrophes and bifurcations, wherein we see how to make discontinuous outputs emerge from smooth inputs." (John L Casti, "Reality Rules: Picturing the world in mathematics", 1992)

"Catastrophe theory is a local theory, telling us what a function looks like  in a small neighborhood of a critical point; it says nothing about what the function may be doing far away from the singularity. Yet most of the applications of the theory [...]  involve extrapolating these rock-solid, local results to regions that may  well be distant in time and space from the singularity." (John L Casti, "Five Golden Rules", 1995)

"The goal of catastrophe theory is to classify smooth functions with degenerate critical points, just as Morse's Theorem gives us a complete classification for Morse functions. The difficulty, of course, is that there are a lot more ways for critical points to 'go bad' than there are for them to stay 'nice'. Thus, the classification problem is much harder for functions having degenerate critical points, and has not yet been fully carried out for all possible types of degeneracies. Fortunately, though, we can obtain a partial classification for those functions having critical points that are not too bad. And this classification turns out to be sufficient to apply the results to a wide range of phenomena like the predator-prey situation sketched above, in which 'jumps' in the system's biomass can occur when parameters describing the process change only slightly." (John L Casti, "Five Golden Rules", 1995)

"The reason catastrophe theory can tell us about such abrupt changes in a system's behavior is that we usually observe a dynamical system when it's at or near its steady-state, or equilibrium, position. And under various assumptions about the nature of the system's dynamical law of motion, the set of all possible equilibrium states is simply the set of critical points of a smooth function closely related to the system dynamics. When these critical points are nondegenerate, Morse's Theorem applies. But it is exactly when they become degenerate that the system can move sharply from one equilibrium position to another. The Thorn Classification Theorem tells when such shifts will occur and what direction they will take." (John L Casti, "Five Golden Rules", 1995)

"The phenomenon of emergence takes place at critical points of instability that arise from fluctuations in the environment, amplified by feedback loops." (Fritjof Capra, "The Hidden Connections", 2002)

"This spontaneous emergence of order at critical points of instability is one of the most important concepts of the new understanding of life. It is technically known as self-organization and is often referred to simply as ‘emergence’. It has been recognized as the dynamic origin of development, learning and evolution. In other words, creativity-the generation of new forms-is a key property of all living systems. And since emergence is an integral part of the dynamics of open systems, we reach the important conclusion that open systems develop and evolve. Life constantly reaches out into novelty." (Fritjof  Capra, "The Hidden Connections", 2002)

"A commonly accepted principle of systems dynamics is that a quantitative change, beyond a critical point, results in a qualitative change. Accordingly, a difference in degree may become a difference in kind. This doesn't mean that an increased quantity of a given variable will bring a qualitative change in the variable itself. However, when the state of a system depends on a set of variables, a quantitative change in one variable beyond the inflection point will result in a change of phase in the state of the system. This change is a qualitative one, representing a whole new set of relationships among the variables involved." (Jamshid Gharajedaghi, "Systems Thinking: Managing Chaos and Complexity A Platform for Designing Business Architecture" 3rd Ed., 2011)

"This spontaneous emergence of order at critical points of instability, which is often referred to simply as 'emergence', is one of the hallmarks of life. It has been recognized as the dynamic origin of development, learning, and evolution. In other words, creativity-the generation of new forms-is a key property of all living systems." (Fritjof Capra, "The Systems View of Life: A Unifying Vision", 2014)

On Patterns (1970-1979)

"Self-organization can be defined as the spontaneous creation of a globally coherent pattern out of local interactions. Because of its distributed character, this organization tends to be robust, resisting perturbations. The dynamics of a self-organizing system is typically non-linear, because of circular or feedback relations between the components. Positive feedback leads to an explosive growth, which ends when all components have been absorbed into the new configuration, leaving the system in a stable, negative feedback state. Non-linear systems have in general several stable states, and this number tends to increase (bifurcate) as an increasing input of energy pushes the system farther from its thermodynamic equilibrium." (Francis Heylighen, "The Science Of Self-Organization And Adaptivity", 1970)

"Without the hard little bits of marble which are called 'facts' or 'data' one cannot compose a mosaic; what matters, however, are not so much the individual bits, but the successive patterns into which you arrange them, then break them up and rearrange them." (Arthur Koestler, "The Act of Creation", 1970) 

"To do science is to search for repeated patterns, not simply to accumulate facts, and to do the science of geographical ecology is to search for patterns of plants and animal life that can be put on a map." (Robert H. MacArthur, "Geographical Ecology", 1972)

"There is no reason to assume that the universe has the slightest interest in intelligence -  or even in life. Both may be random accidental by-products of its operations like the beautiful patterns on a butterfly's wings. The insect would fly just as well without them […]" (Arthur C Clarke, "The Lost Worlds of 2001", 1972)

"Within a Metaphysics of Quality, science is a set of static intellectual patterns describing this reality, but the patterns are not the reality they describe." (Robert M Pirsig, "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance", 1974)

"A pattern has an integrity independent of the medium by virtue of which you have received the information that it exists. Each of the chemical elements is a pattern integrity. Each individual is a pattern integrity. The pattern integrity of the human individual is evolutionary and not static." (Buckminster Fuller, "Synergetics: Explorations in the Geometry of Thinking", 1975)

"First, nature's line patterns are not all of the same sort; the triple junctions generic in mud cracks cannot occur with caustics. Second, the geometrical optics of cylindrically symmetric artifacts such as telescopes, where departures from the ideal point focus are treated as 'aberrations', is very different from the geometrical optics of nature, where the generic forms of caustic surfaces are governed by the mathematics of catastrophe theory." (Michael V Berry & John F Nye, "Fine Structure in Caustic Junctions", Nature Vol. 267 (3606), 1977)

"All nature is a continuum. The endless complexity of life is organized into patterns which repeat themselves - theme and variations - at each level of system. These similarities and differences are proper concerns for science. From the ceaseless streaming of protoplasm to the many-vectored activities of supranational systems, there are continuous flows through living systems as they maintain their highly organized steady states." (James G Miller, "Living Systems", 1978)

"Prime numbers have always fascinated mathematicians, professional and amateur alike. They appear among the integers, seemingly at random, and yet not quite: there seems to be some order or pattern, just a little below the surface, just a little out of reach." (Underwood Dudley, "Elementary Number Theory", 1978)

"The unfoldings are called catastrophes because each of them has regions where a dynamic system can jump suddenly from one state to another, although the factors controlling the process change continuously. Each of the seven catastrophes represents a pattern of behavior determined only by the number of control factors, not by their nature or by the interior mechanisms that connect them to the system's behavior. Therefore, the elementary catastrophes can be models for a wide variety of processes, even those in which we know little about the quantitative laws involved." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"Yet wherever the cracks appear, they show a tendency to extend towards each other, to form characteristic networks, to form specific types of junctions. The location, the magnitude, and the timing of the cracks (their quantitative aspects) are beyond calculation, but their patterns of growth and the topology of their joining (the qualitative aspects) recur again and again." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

On Bifurcations I

"It is not enough to know the critical stress, that is, the quantitative breaking point of a complex design; one should also know as much as possible of the qualitative geometry of its failure modes, because what will happen beyond the critical stress level can be very different from one case to the next, depending on just which path the buckling takes. And here catastrophe theory, joined with bifurcation theory, can be very helpful by indicating how new failure modes appear." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"The study of changes in the qualitative structure of the flow of a differential equation as parameters are varied is called bifurcation theory. At a given parameter value, a differential equation is said to have stable orbit structure if the qualitative structure of the flow does not change for sufficiently small variations of the parameter. A parameter value for which the flow does not have stable orbit structure is called a bifurcation value, and the equation is said to be at a bifurcation point." (Jack K Hale & Hüseyin Kocak, "Dynamics and Bifurcations", 1991)

"Fundamental to catastrophe theory is the idea of a bifurcation. A bifurcation is an event that occurs in the evolution of a dynamic system in which the characteristic behavior of the system is transformed. This occurs when an attractor in the system changes in response to change in the value of a parameter. A catastrophe is one type of bifurcation. The broader framework within which catastrophes are located is called dynamical bifurcation theory." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"The existence of equilibria or steady periodic solutions is not sufficient to determine if a system will actually behave that way. The stability of these solutions must also be checked. As parameters are changed, a stable motion can become unstable and new solutions may appear. The study of the changes in the dynamic behavior of systems as parameters are varied is the subject of bifurcation theory. Values of the parameters at which the qualitative or topological nature of the motion changes are known as critical or bifurcation values." (Francis C Moona, "Nonlinear Dynamics", 2003)

"In parametrized dynamical systems a bifurcation occurs when a qualitative change is invoked by a change of parameters. In models such a qualitative change corresponds to transition between dynamical regimes. In the generic theory a finite list of cases is obtained, containing elements like ‘saddle-node’, ‘period doubling’, ‘Hopf bifurcation’ and many others." (Henk W Broer & Heinz Hanssmann, "Hamiltonian Perturbation Theory (and Transition to Chaos)", 2009)

"In dynamical systems, a bifurcation occurs when a small smooth change made to the parameter values (the bifurcation parameters) of a system causes a sudden 'qualitative' or topological change in its behaviour. Generally, at a bifurcation, the local stability properties of equilibria, periodic orbits or other invariant sets changes." (Gregory Faye, "An introduction to bifurcation theory",  2011)

"Catastrophe theory can be thought of as a link between classical analysis, dynamical systems, differential topology (including singularity theory), modern bifurcation theory and the theory of complex systems." (Werner Sanns, "Catastrophe Theory" [Mathematics of Complexity and Dynamical Systems, 2012])

"Roughly spoken, bifurcation theory describes the way in which dynamical system changes due to a small perturbation of the system-parameters. A qualitative change in the phase space of the dynamical system occurs at a bifurcation point, that means that the system is structural unstable against a small perturbation in the parameter space and the dynamic structure of the system has changed due to this slight variation in the parameter space." (Holger I Meinhardt, "Cooperative Decision Making in Common Pool Situations", 2012)

"Bifurcation theory is the mathematical study of changes in the qualitative or topological structure of a given family, such as the integral curves of a family of vector fields, and the solutions of a family of differential equations. Most commonly applied to the mathematical study of dynamical systems, a bifurcation occurs when a small smooth change made to the parameter values (the bifurcation parameters) of a system causes a sudden “qualitative” or topological change in its behavior. Bifurcations can occur in both continuous systems (described by ODEs, DDEs, or PDEs) and discrete systems (described by maps)." (Tianshou Zhou, "Bifurcation", 2013)

"The core of bifurcation theory of nonlinear system inevitably falls back to the dynamic analysis of linear ones. Because of that, the fundamental question one may ask is if there exist a linearized DAE system with the same qualitative behavior around fixed points of its nonlinear counterpart." (Ataíde S A.Netoa et al, "Nonlinear dynamic analysis of chemical engineering processes described by differential-algebraic equations systems", 2019)

On Stability II

"Stability is commonly thought of as desirable, for its presence enables the system to combine of flexibility and activity in performance with something of permanence. Behaviour that is goal-seeking is an example of behaviour that is stable around a state of equilibrium. Nevertheless, stability is not always good, for a system may persist in returning to some state that, for other reasons, is considered undesirable." (W Ross Ashby, "An Introduction to Cybernetics", 1956)

"Effect spreads its 'tentacles' not only forwards (as a new cause giving rise to a new effect) but also backwards, to the cause which gave rise to it, thus modifying, exhausting or intensifying its force. This interaction of cause and effect is known as the principle of feedback. It operates everywhere, particularly in all self-organising systems where perception, storing, processing and use of information take place, as for example, in the organism, in a cybernetic device, and in society. The stability, control and progress of a system are inconceivable without feedback." (Alexander Spirkin, "Dialectical Materialism", 1983)

"Structure is the type of connection between the elements of a whole. […] . Structure is a composite whole, or an internally organised content. […] Structure implies not only the position of its elements in space but also their movement in time, their sequence and rhythm, the law of mutation of a process. So structure is actually the law or set of laws that determine a system's composition and functioning, its properties and stability." (Alexander Spirkin, "Dialectical Materialism", 1983)

"Stability theory is the study of systems under various perturbing influences. Since there are many systems, many types of influences, and many equations describing systems, this is an open-ended problem. A system is designed so that it will be stable under external influences. However, one cannot predict all external influences, nor predict the magnitude of those that occur. Consequently, we need control theory. If one is interested in stability theory, a natural result is a theory of control." (Richard E Bellman, "Eye of the Hurricane: An Autobiography", 1984)

"All systems evolve, although the rates of evolution may vary over time both between and within systems. The rate of evolution is a function of both the inherent stability of the system and changing environmental circumstances. But no system can be stabilized forever. For the universe as a whole, an isolated system, time’s arrow points toward greater and greater breakdown, leading to complete molecular chaos, maximum entropy, and heat death. For open systems, including the living systems that are of major interest to us and that interchange matter and energy with their external environments, time’s arrow points to evolution toward greater and greater complexity. Thus, the universe consists of islands of increasing order in a sea of decreasing order. Open systems evolve and maintain structure by exporting entropy to their external environments." (L Douglas Kiel, "Chaos Theory in the Social Sciences: Foundations and Applications", 1996)

"The phenomenon of emergence takes place at critical points of instability that arise from fluctuations in the environment, amplified by feedback loops." (Fritjof Capra, "The Hidden Connections", 2002)

"This spontaneous emergence of order at critical points of instability is one of the most important concepts of the new understanding of life. It is technically known as self-organization and is often referred to simply as ‘emergence’. It has been recognized as the dynamic origin of development, learning and evolution. In other words, creativity-the generation of new forms-is a key property of all living systems. And since emergence is an integral part of the dynamics of open systems, we reach the important conclusion that open systems develop and evolve. Life constantly reaches out into novelty." (Fritjof  Capra, "The Hidden Connections", 2002)

"Classification is only one of the mathematical aspects of catastrophe theory. Another is stability. The stable states of natural systems are the ones that we can observe over a longer period of time. But the stable states of a system, which can be described by potential functions and their singularities, can become unstable if the potentials are changed by perturbations. So stability problems in nature lead to mathematical questions concerning the stability of the potential functions." (Werner Sanns, "Catastrophe Theory" [Mathematics of Complexity and Dynamical Systems, 2012])

"An important aspect of the global theory of dynamical systems is the stability of the orbit structure as a whole. The motivation for the corresponding theory comes from applied mathematics. Mathematical models always contain simplifying assumptions. Dominant features are modeled; supposed small disturbing forces are ignored. Thus, it is natural to ask if the qualitative structure of the set of solutions - the phase portrait - of a model would remain the same if small perturbations were included in the model. The corresponding mathematical theory is called structural stability." (Carmen Chicone, "Stability Theory of Ordinary Differential Equations" [Mathematics of Complexity and Dynamical Systems, 2012])

"This spontaneous emergence of order at critical points of instability, which is often referred to simply as 'emergence', is one of the hallmarks of life. It has been recognized as the dynamic origin of development, learning, and evolution. In other words, creativity-the generation of new forms-is a key property of all living systems." (Fritjof Capra, "The Systems View of Life: A Unifying Vision", 2014)

Alexander Woodcock - Collected Quotes

"Because of its foundation in topology, catastrophe theory is qualitative, not quantitative. Just as geometry treated the properties of a triangle without regard to its size, so topology deals with properties that have no magnitude, for example, the property of a given point being inside or outside a closed curve or surface. This property is what topologists call 'invariant' -it does not change even when the curve is distorted. A topologist may work with seven-dimensional space, but he does not and cannot measure (in the ordinary sense) along any of those dimensions. The ability to classify and manipulate all types of form is achieved only by giving up concepts such as size, distance, and rate. So while catastrophe theory is well suited to describe and even to predict the shape of processes, its descriptions and predictions are not quantitative like those of theories built upon calculus. Instead, they are rather like maps without a scale: they tell us that there are mountains to the left, a river to the right, and a cliff somewhere ahead, but not how far away each is, or how large." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"But there is another kind of change, too, change that is less suited to mathematical analysis: the abrupt bursting of a bubble, the discontinuous transition from ice at its melting point to water at its freezing point, the qualitative shift in our minds when we 'get' a pun or a play on words. Catastrophe theory is a mathematical language created to describe and classify this second type of change. It challenges scientists to change the way they think about processes and events in many fields." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"Catastrophe theory (in particular its essential concept of structural stability) is really a paradigm rather than a theory. It has attracted so much attention and generated so much argument because its scope and application appear to be virtually unlimited." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"Catastrophe theory is a controversial new way of thinking about change-change in a course of events, change in an object's shape, change in a system's behavior, change in ideas themselves. Its name suggests disaster, and indeed the theory can be applied to literal catastrophes such as the collapse of a bridge or the downfall of an empire. But it also deals with changes as quiet as the dancing of sunlight on the bottom of a pool of water and as subtle as the transition from waking to sleep." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"For one thing, they say, the classification of the elementary catastrophes depends on what is called 'local' analysis of topological properties-in other words, analysis that describes only the immediate neighborhood of the singularity. But the classification theorem does not prove that a system's total range, its 'global' behavior, is like its behavior in that neighborhood. […] Since the topological approach provides no scale, it requires an act of faith to identify a mathematical jump on the catastrophe surface with an observed discontinuity in nature."(Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"In any system governed by a potential, and in which the system's behavior is determined by no more than four different factors, only seven qualitatively different types of discontinuity are possible. In other words, while there are an infinite number of ways for such a system to change continuously (staying at or near equilibrium), there are only seven structurally stable ways for it to change discontinuously (passing through non-equilibrium states)." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"In fact, there is a close correspondence between catastrophe theory and bifurcation theory, and in many cases their mathematics are equivalent or overlapping. Bifurcation theory, though, is much more analytic in spirit." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"In living systems, equilibrium is dynamic rather than static, because organisms and societies are always taking in and transforming energy. They tend to establish cycles in which no one state is stable, but the whole series of states resists disturbance like a spinning gyroscope." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"Is catastrophe theory correct? In its mathematics, yes; in the natural philosophy that inspired it and the scientific applications that flow from it, the only possible answer is that it's too soon to say. There is always a chance of error whenever we try to capture any aspect of reality in mathematical symbols, and another chance of error when (after working with the symbols) we use them to generate descriptions or predictions of reality." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"Is the [catastrophe] theory useful? in the rigorous applications, yes; in the illustrations, sometimes; in the 'invocations', both yes and no. Yes, because catastrophe theory provides a common vocabulary for features of many different processes. Someday it may be as natural to speak of a 'cusp situation' or a 'butterfly compromise' as it is today to speak of the 'point of diminishing returns' or of a 'quantum jump'. No, because when the theory is invoked for the suggestiveness of its images, it cannot usually tell us anything we did not know before (although it can make explicit certain features that other models tend to neglect)." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"It is not enough to know the critical stress, that is, the quantitative breaking point of a complex design; one should also know as much as possible of the qualitative geometry of its failure modes, because what will happen beyond the critical stress level can be very different from one case to the next, depending on just which path the buckling takes. And here catastrophe theory, joined with bifurcation theory, can be very helpful by indicating how new failure modes appear." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"Mathematics has two cutting edges: one in its formal abstractions, the pure manipulation of ideas, and one in its applications to the real world." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"The unfoldings are called catastrophes because each of them has regions where a dynamic system can jump suddenly from one state to another, although the factors controlling the process change continuously. Each of the seven catastrophes represents a pattern of behavior determined only by the number of control factors, not by their nature or by the interior mechanisms that connect them to the system's behavior. Therefore, the elementary catastrophes can be models for a wide variety of processes, even those in which we know little about the quantitative laws involved." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"The most complex system imaginable is the mind - by definition, since the mind must be at least one degree more complex than whatever it imagines. Catastrophe theory proposes that qualitative stability is a necessary attribute of thought; without it, recognition and memory would be impossible." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"The most widely used mathematical tools in the social sciences are statistical, and the prevalence of statistical methods has given rise to theories so abstract and so hugely complicated that they seem a discipline in themselves, divorced from the world outside learned journals. Statistical theories usually assume that the behavior of large numbers of people is a smooth, average 'summing-up' of behavior over a long period of time. It is difficult for them to take into account the sudden, critical points of important qualitative change. The statistical approach leads to models that emphasize the quantitative conditions needed for equilibrium-a balance of wages and prices, say, or of imports and exports. These models are ill suited to describe qualitative change and social discontinuity, and it is here that catastrophe theory may be especially helpful." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"The qualitative type of any stable discontinuity does not depend on the specific nature of the potential involved, merely on its existence. It does not depend on the specific conditions regulating behavior, merely on their number. It does not depend on the specific quantitative, cause-and-effect relationship between the conditions and the resultant behavior, merely on the empirical fact that such a relationship exists." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"The social or 'inexact' sciences have an uneasy relationship with mathematics. To some extent, they seek a Newtonian goal of quantification and prediction. Yet the human and environmental variables they must deal with are so many and varied, the possibility of meaningful experiment so limited, and the data (both current and historical) so questionable, that the greatest achievements of sociology and economics so far are chiefly descriptive rather than analytic." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"Two assumptions are needed to apply catastrophe theory as it now stands: first, that the system described be governed by a potential, and second, that its behavior depend on a limited number of control factors. Without these assumptions, the classification of the elementary catastrophes is impossible." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"Yet wherever the cracks appear, they show a tendency to extend towards each other, to form characteristic networks, to form specific types of junctions. The location, the magnitude, and the timing of the cracks (their quantitative aspects) are beyond calculation, but their patterns of growth and the topology of their joining (the qualitative aspects) recur again and again." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

Catastrophe Theory III

"On the plane of philosophy properly speaking, of metaphysics, catastrophe theory cannot, to be sure, supply any answer to the great problems which torment mankind. But it favors a dialectical, Heraclitean view of the universe, of a world which is the continual theatre of the battle between 'logoi', between archetypes." (René F Thom, "Catastrophe Theory: Its Present State and Future Perspectives", 1975)

"At the large scale where many processes and structures appear continuous and stable much of the time, important changes may occur discontinuously. When only a few variables are involved, as well as an optimizing process, the event may be analyzed using catastrophe theory. As the number of variables in- creases the bifurcations can become more complex to the point where chaos theory becomes the relevant approach. That chaos theory as well as the fundamentally discontinuous quantum processes may be viewed through fractal eyeglasses can also be admitted. We can even argue that a cascade of bifurcations to chaos contains two essentially structural catastrophe points, namely the initial bifurcation point at which the cascade commences and the accumulation point at which the transition to chaos is finally achieved." (J Barkley Rosser Jr., "From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities", 1991)

"Catastrophe theory is a local theory, telling us what a function looks like  in a small neighborhood of a critical point; it says nothing about what the function may be doing far away from the singularity. Yet most of the applications of the theory [...]  involve extrapolating these rock-solid, local results to regions that may  well be distant in time and space from the singularity." (John L Casti, "Five Golden Rules", 1995)

"Chaos and catastrophe theories are among the most interesting recent developments in nonlinear modeling, and both have captured the interests of scientists in many disciplines. It is only natural that social scientists should be concerned with these theories. Linear statistical models have proven very useful in a great deal of social scientific empirical analyses, as is evidenced by how widely these models have been used for a number of decades. However, there is no apparent reason, intuitive or otherwise, as to why human behavior should be more linear than the behavior of other things, living and nonliving. Thus an intellectual movement toward nonlinear models is an appropriate evolutionary movement in social scientific thinking, if for no other reason than to expand our paradigmatic boundaries by encouraging greater flexibility in our algebraic specifications of all aspects of human life." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"[...] chaos and catastrophe theories per se address behavioral phenomena that are consequences of two general types of nonlinear dynamic behavior. In the most elementary of behavioral terms, chaotic phenomena are a class of deterministic processes that seem to mimic random or stochastic dynamics. Catastrophe phenomena, on the other hand, are a class of dynamic processes that exhibit a sudden and large scale change in at least one variable in correspondence with relatively small changes in other variables or, in some cases, parameters." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"Chaos and catastrophe theories directly address the social scientists' need to understand classes of nonlinear complexities that are certain to appear in social phenomena. The probabilistic properties of many chaos and catastrophe models are simply not known, and there is little likelihood that general procedures will be developed soon to alleviate the difficulties inherent with probabilistic approaches in such complicated settings." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"Fundamental to catastrophe theory is the idea of a bifurcation. A bifurcation is an event that occurs in the evolution of a dynamic system in which the characteristic behavior of the system is transformed. This occurs when an attractor in the system changes in response to change in the value of a parameter. A catastrophe is one type of bifurcation. The broader framework within which catastrophes are located is called dynamical bifurcation theory." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"Probably the most important reason that catastrophe theory received as much popular press as it did in the mid-1970s is not because of its unchallenged mathematical elegance, but because it appears to offer a coherent mathematical framework within which to talk about how discontinuous behaviors - stock market booms and busts or cellular differentiation, for instance - might emerge as the result of smooth changes in the inputs to a system, things like interest rates in a speculative market or the diffusion rate of chemicals in a developing embryo. These kinds of changes are often termed bifurcations, and playa central role in applied mathematical modeling. Catastrophe theory enables us to understand more clearly how - and why - they occur." (John L Casti, "Five Golden Rules", 1995)

"The goal of catastrophe theory is to classify smooth functions with degenerate critical points, just as Morse's Theorem gives us a complete classification for Morse functions. The difficulty, of course, is that there are a lot more ways for critical points to 'go bad' than there are for them to stay 'nice'. Thus, the classification problem is much harder for functions having degenerate critical points, and has not yet been fully carried out for all possible types of degeneracies. Fortunately, though, we can obtain a partial classification for those functions having critical points that are not too bad. And this classification turns out to be sufficient to apply the results to a wide range of phenomena like the predator-prey situation sketched above, in which 'jumps' in the system's biomass can occur when parameters describing the process change only slightly." (John L Casti, "Five Golden Rules", 1995)

"The reason catastrophe theory can tell us about such abrupt changes in a system's behavior is that we usually observe a dynamical system when it's at or near its steady-state, or equilibrium, position. And under various assumptions about the nature of the system's dynamical law of motion, the set of all possible equilibrium states is simply the set of critical points of a smooth function closely related to the system dynamics. When these critical points are nondegenerate, Morse's Theorem applies. But it is exactly when they become degenerate that the system can move sharply from one equilibrium position to another. The Thorn Classification Theorem tells when such shifts will occur and what direction they will take." (John L Casti, "Five Golden Rules", 1995)

Courtney Brown - Collected Quotes

"As with subtle bifurcations, catastrophes also involve a control parameter. When the value of that parameter is below a bifurcation point, the system is dominated by one attractor. When the value of that parameter is above the bifurcation point, another attractor dominates. Thus the fundamental characteristic of a catastrophe is the sudden disappearance of one attractor and its basin, combined with the dominant emergence of another attractor. Any type of attractor static, periodic, or chaotic can be involved in this. Elementary catastrophe theory involves static attractors, such as points. Because multidimensional surfaces can also attract (together with attracting points on these surfaces), we refer to them more generally as attracting hypersurfaces, limit sets, or simply attractors." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"Chaos and catastrophe theories are among the most interesting recent developments in nonlinear modeling, and both have captured the interests of scientists in many disciplines. It is only natural that social scientists should be concerned with these theories. Linear statistical models have proven very useful in a great deal of social scientific empirical analyses, as is evidenced by how widely these models have been used for a number of decades. However, there is no apparent reason, intuitive or otherwise, as to why human behavior should be more linear than the behavior of other things, living and nonliving. Thus an intellectual movement toward nonlinear models is an appropriate evolutionary movement in social scientific thinking, if for no other reason than to expand our paradigmatic boundaries by encouraging greater flexibility in our algebraic specifications of all aspects of human life." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"[...] chaos and catastrophe theories per se address behavioral phenomena that are consequences of two general types of nonlinear dynamic behavior. In the most elementary of behavioral terms, chaotic phenomena are a class of deterministic processes that seem to mimic random or stochastic dynamics. Catastrophe phenomena, on the other hand, are a class of dynamic processes that exhibit a sudden and large scale change in at least one variable in correspondence with relatively small changes in other variables or, in some cases, parameters." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"Chaos and catastrophe theories directly address the social scientists' need to understand classes of nonlinear complexities that are certain to appear in social phenomena. The probabilistic properties of many chaos and catastrophe models are simply not known, and there is little likelihood that general procedures will be developed soon to alleviate the difficulties inherent with probabilistic approaches in such complicated settings." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"Chaos has three fundamental characteristics. They are (a) irregular periodicity, (b) sensitivity to initial conditions, and (c) a lack of predictability. These characteristics interact within any one chaotic setting to produce highly complex nonlinear variable trajectories." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"Fundamental to catastrophe theory is the idea of a bifurcation. A bifurcation is an event that occurs in the evolution of a dynamic system in which the characteristic behavior of the system is transformed. This occurs when an attractor in the system changes in response to change in the value of a parameter. A catastrophe is one type of bifurcation. The broader framework within which catastrophes are located is called dynamical bifurcation theory." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"In addition to dimensionality requirements, chaos can occur only in nonlinear situations. In multidimensional settings, this means that at least one term in one equation must be nonlinear while also involving several of the variables. With all linear models, solutions can be expressed as combinations of regular and linear periodic processes, but nonlinearities in a model allow for instabilities in such periodic solutions within certain value ranges for some of the parameters." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"In classical catastrophe theory, the various attracting static hypersurfaces are actually connected. However, there are portions of the overall surface that are unstable, and thus repelling. Thus nearby trajectories tend to 'fly' quickly past these unstable regions as they move from one stable area to another. It is this relatively rapid snapping movement that is typical of nearly all catastrophe phenomena." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"In its essence, chaos is an irregular oscillatory process. Because chaos is a subset of the more general classification of oscillatory dynamics, it is useful before venturing into chaos to review briefly the extent to which regular oscillatory processes influence human behavior." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"Small changes in the initial conditions in a chaotic system produce dramatically different evolutionary histories. It is because of this sensitivity to initial conditions that chaotic systems are inherently unpredictable. To predict a future state of a system, one has to be able to rely on numerical calculations and initial measurements of the state variables. Yet slight errors in measurement combined with extremely small computational errors (from roundoff or truncation) make prediction impossible from a practical perspective. Moreover, small initial errors in prediction grow exponentially in chaotic systems as the trajectories evolve. Thus, theoretically, prediction may be possible with some chaotic processes if one is interested only in the movement between two relatively close points on a trajectory. When longer time intervals are involved, the situation becomes hopeless."(Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"The dimensionality and nonlinearity requirements of chaos do not guarantee its appearance. At best, these conditions allow it to occur, and even then under limited conditions relating to particular parameter values. But this does not imply that chaos is rare in the real world. Indeed, discoveries are being made constantly of either the clearly identifiable or arguably persuasive appearance of chaos. Most of these discoveries are being made with regard to physical systems, but the lack of similar discoveries involving human behavior is almost certainly due to the still developing nature of nonlinear analyses in the social sciences rather than the absence of chaos in the human setting."  (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"Thus my advice to model builders in the social sciences is to think in terms of social processes that might require algebraic structures that could yield catastrophe potential. Build models from an intimate knowledge of these processes while remaining aware of the algebraic requirements for catastrophes. The art of nonlinear model building is a delicate dance with two partners, algebraic forms that produce known effects and a substantive understanding of the complexities of social phenomena. Coordinating the two by mixing structure to match complexity is the job of the theorist, and it is the single greatest creative challenge of any researcher." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

On Chaos IV

"One of the central problems studied by mankind is the problem of the succession of form. Whatever is the ultimate nature of reality (assuming that this expression has meaning), it is indisputable that our universe is not chaos. We perceive beings, objects, things to which we give names. These beings or things are forms or structures endowed with a degree of stability; they take up some part of space and last for some period of time." (René Thom, "Structural Stability and Morphogenesis", 1972)

"'Disorder' is not mere chaos; it implies defective order." (John M Ziman, "Models of Disorder", 1979)

"Chaos and catastrophe theories are among the most interesting recent developments in nonlinear modeling, and both have captured the interests of scientists in many disciplines. It is only natural that social scientists should be concerned with these theories. Linear statistical models have proven very useful in a great deal of social scientific empirical analyses, as is evidenced by how widely these models have been used for a number of decades. However, there is no apparent reason, intuitive or otherwise, as to why human behavior should be more linear than the behavior of other things, living and nonliving. Thus an intellectual movement toward nonlinear models is an appropriate evolutionary movement in social scientific thinking, if for no other reason than to expand our paradigmatic boundaries by encouraging greater flexibility in our algebraic specifications of all aspects of human life." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"[...] chaos and catastrophe theories per se address behavioral phenomena that are consequences of two general types of nonlinear dynamic behavior. In the most elementary of behavioral terms, chaotic phenomena are a class of deterministic processes that seem to mimic random or stochastic dynamics. Catastrophe phenomena, on the other hand, are a class of dynamic processes that exhibit a sudden and large scale change in at least one variable in correspondence with relatively small changes in other variables or, in some cases, parameters." (Courtney Brown, "Chaos and Catastrophe Theories", 1995)

"Nature normally hates power laws. In ordinary systems all quantities follow bell curves, and correlations decay rapidly, obeying exponential laws. But all that changes if the system is forced to undergo a phase transition. Then power laws emerge-nature's unmistakable sign that chaos is departing in favor of order. The theory of phase transitions told us loud and clear that the road from disorder to order is maintained by the powerful forces of self-organization and is paved by power laws. It told us that power laws are not just another way of characterizing a system's behavior. They are the patent signatures of self-organization in complex systems." (Albert-László Barabási, "Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means for Business, Science, and Everyday Life", 2002)

"Chaos is not pure disorder, it carries within itself the indistinctness between the potentialities of order, of disorder, and of organization from which a cosmos will be born, which is an ordered universe." (Edgar Morin, "Restricted Complexity, General Complexity" [in (Carlos Gershenson et al [Eds.], "Worldviews, Science and Us: Philosophy and Complexity", 2007)])

"Chaos can be understood as a dynamical process in which microscopic information hidden in the details of a system’s state is dug out and expanded to a macroscopically visible scale (stretching), while the macroscopic information visible in the current system’s state is continuously discarded (folding)." (Hiroki Sayama, "Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems", 2015)

"God has put a secret art into the forces of Nature so as to enable it to fashion itself out of chaos into a perfect world system." (Immanuel Kant)

"Science, like art, music and poetry, tries to reduce chaos to the clarity and order of pure beauty." (Detlev W Bronk)

Catastrophe Theory II

"What I am offering, is not a scientific theory, but a method; the first step in the construction of a model is to describe the dynamical models compatible with an empirically given morphology, and this is also the first step in understanding the phenomena under consideration. [...] We may hope that theoreticians will develop a quantitative model [for specific processes described by catastrophe theory ...] But this is only a hope." (René Thom, "Structural Stability and Morphogenesis", 1972)

"The catastrophe model is at the same time much less and much more than a scientific theory; one should consider it as a language, a method, which permits classification and systematization of given empirical data [...] In fact, any phenomenon at all can be explained by a suitable model from catastrophe theory." (René F Thom, 1973)

"First, nature's line patterns are not all of the same sort; the triple junctions generic in mud cracks cannot occur with caustics. Second, the geometrical optics of cylindrically symmetric artifacts such as telescopes, where departures from the ideal point focus are treated as 'aberrations', is very different from the geometrical optics of nature, where the generic forms of caustic surfaces are governed by the mathematics of catastrophe theory." Michael V Berry & John F Nye, "Fine Structure in Caustic Junctions", Nature Vol. 267 (3606), 1977)

"the claims made for the theory are greatly exaggerated and its accomplishments, at least in the biological and social sciences, are insignificant. [...] Catastrophe theory is one of many attempts that have been made to deduce the world by thought alone [...] an appealing dream for mathematicians, but a dream that cannot come true."  (Héctor J Sussmann & Raphael S Zahler, Nature, 1977)

"A catastrophe, in the very broad sense [René] Thom gives to the word, is any discontinuous transition that occurs when a system can have more than one stable state, or can follow more than one stable pathway of change. The catastrophe is the 'jump' from one state or pathway to another." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"It is not enough to know the critical stress, that is, the quantitative breaking point of a complex design; one should also know as much as possible of the qualitative geometry of its failure modes, because what will happen beyond the critical stress level can be very different from one case to the next, depending on just which path the buckling takes. And here catastrophe theory, joined with bifurcation theory, can be very helpful by indicating how new failure modes appear." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"The unfoldings are called catastrophes because each of them has regions where a dynamic system can jump suddenly from one state to another, although the factors controlling the process change continuously. Each of the seven catastrophes represents a pattern of behavior determined only by the number of control factors, not by their nature or by the interior mechanisms that connect them to the system's behavior. Therefore, the elementary catastrophes can be models for a wide variety of processes, even those in which we know little about the quantitative laws involved." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"Two assumptions are needed to apply catastrophe theory as it now stands: first, that the system described be governed by a potential, and second, that its behavior depend on a limited number of control factors. Without these assumptions, the classification of the elementary catastrophes is impossible." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"It is more a philosophy than mathematics, and even as a philosophy it doesn't explain the real world [...] as mathematics, it brings together two of the most basic ideas in modern math: the study of dynamic systems and the study of the singularities of maps. Together, they cover a very wide area - but catastrophe theory brings them together in an arbitrary and constrained way." (Steven Smale)

"While it must be granted that a number of immoderate claims in the form of 'catastrophe theory can do everything' have been made in the literature, on the basis of too little experience, it doesn't seem that the proper response is an equally immoderate claim that 'catastrophe theory can do nothing' on the basis of that same body of experience." (Robert Rosen)

Catastrophe Theory I

"[...] if the behavior points for the entire control surface are plotted and then connected, they form a smooth surface: the behavior surface. The surface has an overall slope from high values where rage predominates to low values in the region where fear is the prevailing state of mind, but the slope is not its most distinctive feature. Catastrophe theory reveals that in the middle of the surface there must be a smooth double fold, creating a pleat without creases, which grows narrower from the front of the surface to the back and eventually disappears in a singular point where the three sheets of the pleat come together. It is the pleat that gives the model its most interesting characteristics. All the points on the behavior surface represent the most probable behavior [...], with the exception of those on the middle sheet, which represent least probable behavior. Through catastrophe theory we can deduce the shape of the entire surface from the fact that the behavior is bimodal for some control points." (E Cristopher Zeeman, "Catastrophe Theory", Scientific American, 1976)

"Catastrophe Theory is - quite likely - the first coherent attempt (since Aristotelian logic) to give a theory on analogy. When narrow-minded scientists object to Catastrophe Theory that it gives no more than analogies, or metaphors, they do not realise that they are stating the proper aim of Catastrophe Theory, which is to classify all possible types of analogous situations." (René F Thom," La Théorie des catastrophes: État présent et perspective", 1977)

"'Catastrophe theory' denotes both a purely mathematical discipline describing certain singularities of smooth maps, as well as the concerted effort to apply these theorems to a wide variety of problems in fields ranging from linguistics and psychology to embryology, evolution, physics, and engineering." (Héctor J Sussmann & Raphael S Zahler, "Catastrophe Theory as Applied to the Social and Biological Sciences: A Critique" Synthese Vol. 37 (2), 1978)

"Because of its foundation in topology, catastrophe theory is qualitative, not quantitative. Just as geometry treated the properties of a triangle without regard to its size, so topology deals with properties that have no magnitude, for example, the property of a given point being inside or outside a closed curve or surface. This property is what topologists call 'invariant' -it does not change even when the curve is distorted. A topologist may work with seven-dimensional space, but he does not and cannot measure (in the ordinary sense) along any of those dimensions. The ability to classify and manipulate all types of form is achieved only by giving up concepts such as size, distance, and rate. So while catastrophe theory is well suited to describe and even to predict the shape of processes, its descriptions and predictions are not quantitative like those of theories built upon calculus. Instead, they are rather like maps without a scale: they tell us that there are mountains to the left, a river to the right, and a cliff somewhere ahead, but not how far away each is, or how large." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"But there is another kind of change, too, change that is less suited to mathematical analysis: the abrupt bursting of a bubble, the discontinuous transition from ice at its melting point to water at its freezing point, the qualitative shift in our minds when we 'get' a pun or a play on words. Catastrophe theory is a mathematical language created to describe and classify this second type of change. It challenges scientists to change the way they think about processes and events in many fields." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"Catastrophe theory is a controversial new way of thinking about change - change in a course of events, change in an object's shape, change in a system's behavior, change in ideas themselves. Its name suggests disaster, and indeed the theory can be applied to literal catastrophes such as the collapse of a bridge or the downfall of an empire. But it also deals with changes as quiet as the dancing of sunlight on the bottom of a pool of water and as subtle as the transition from waking to sleep." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"Catastrophes are often stimulated by the failure to feel the emergence of a domain, and so what cannot be felt in the imagination is experienced as embodied sensation in the catastrophe. (William I Thompson, "Gaia, a Way of Knowing: Political Implications of the New Biology", 1987)

"A catastrophe is a universal unfolding of a singular function germ. The singular function germs are called organization centers of the catastrophes. [...] Catastrophe theory is concerned with the mathematical modeling of sudden changes - so called 'catastrophes' - in the behavior of natural systems, which can appear as a consequence of continuous changes of the system parameters. While in common speech the word catastrophe has a negative connotation, in mathematics it is neutral." (Werner Sanns, "Catastrophe Theory" [Mathematics of Complexity and Dynamical Systems, 2012])

"Catastrophe theory can be thought of as a link between classical analysis, dynamical systems, differential topology (including singularity theory), modern bifurcation theory and the theory of complex systems. [...] The name ‘catastrophe theory’ is used for a combination of singularity theory and its applications. [...] From the didactical point of view, there are two main positions for courses in catastrophe theory at university level: Trying to teach the theory as a perfect axiomatic system consisting of exact definitions, theorems and proofs or trying to teach mathematics as it can be developed from historical or from natural problems." (Werner Sanns, "Catastrophe Theory" [Mathematics of Complexity and Dynamical Systems, 2012])

"Classification is only one of the mathematical aspects of catastrophe theory. Another is stability. The stable states of natural systems are the ones that we can observe over a longer period of time. But the stable states of a system, which can be described by potential functions and their singularities, can become unstable if the potentials are changed by perturbations. So stability problems in nature lead to mathematical questions concerning the stability of the potential functions." (Werner Sanns, "Catastrophe Theory" [Mathematics of Complexity and Dynamical Systems, 2012])