Statistical Tools IV: Urns

"The early experts in probability theory were forever talking about drawing colored  balls out of 'urns' . This was not because people are really interested in jars or boxes full of a mixed-up lot of colored balls, but because those urns full of balls could often be designed so that they served as useful and illuminating models of important real situations. In fact, the urns and balls are not themselves supposed real. They are fictitious and idealized urns and balls, so that the probability of drawing out any one ball is just the same as for any other." (Warren Weaver, "Lady Luck: The Theory of Probability". 1963) 

"The urn model is to be the expression of three postulates: (1) the constancy of a probability distribution, ensured by the solidity of the vessel, (2) the random-character of the choice, ensured by the narrowness of the mouth, which is to prevent visibility of the contents and any consciously selective choice, (3) the independence of successive choices, whenever the drawn balls are put back into the urn. Of course in abstract probability and statistics the word 'choice' can be avoided and all can be done without any reference to such a model. But as soon as the abstract theory is to be applied, random choice plays an essential role." (Hans Freudenthal, "The Concept and the Role of the Model in Mathematics and Natural and Social Sciences", 1961)

"Specifically, it seems to me preferable to use, systematically: 'random' for that which is the object of the theory of probability […]; I will therefore say random process, not stochastic process. 'stochastic' for that which is valid 'in the sense of the calculus of probability': for instance; stochastic independence, stochastic convergence, stochastic integral; more generally, stochastic property, stochastic models, stochastic interpretation, stochastic laws; or also, stochastic matrix, stochastic distribution, etc. As for 'chance', it is perhaps better to reserve it for less technical use: in the familiar sense of'by chance', 'not for a known or imaginable reason', or (but in this case we should give notice of the fact) in the sense of, 'with equal probability' as in 'chance drawings from an urn', 'chance subdivision', and similar examples." (Bruno de Finetti, "Theory of Probability", 1974)

"Statisticians talk about populations. In probability books, the equivalent concept is an urn with numbered balls as a prototype for a population. In fact, when sampling from populations, it is customary to number the population and pretend the population is an urn from which we are drawing the sample." (Juana Sánchez, "Probability for Data Scientists", 2020)

"Many people mistakenly think that the defining property of a simple random sample is that every unit has an equal chance of being in the sample. However, this is not the case. A simple random sample of n units from a population of N means that every possible col‐lection of n of the N units has the same chance of being selected. A slight variant of this is the simple random sample with replacement, where the units/marbles are returned to the urn after each draw. This method also has the property that every sample of n units from a population of N is equally likely to be selected. The difference, though, is that there are more possible sets of n units because the same marble can appear more than once in the sample." (Sam Lau et al, "Learning Data Science: Data Wrangling, Exploration, Visualization, and Modeling with Python", 2023)

"Several key assumptions enter into this urn model, such as the assumption that the vaccine is ineffective. It’s important to keep track of the reliance on these assumptions because our simulation study gives us an approximation of the rarity of an outcome like the one observed only under these key assumptions." (Sam Lau et al, "Learning Data Science: Data Wrangling, Exploration, Visualization, and Modeling with Python", 2023)

"The urn model is a simple abstraction that can be helpful for understanding variation.This model sets up a container (an urn, which is like a vase or a bucket) full of identical marbles that have been labeled, and we use the simple action of drawing marbles from the urn to reason about sampling schemes, randomized controlled experiments, and measurement error. For each of these types of variation, the urn model helps us estimate the size of the variation using either probability or simulation." (Sam Lau et al, "Learning Data Science: Data Wrangling, Exploration, Visualization, and Modeling with Python", 2023)

Richard Levins - Collected Quotes

"A mathematical model is neither an hypothesis nor a theory. Unlike the scientific hypothesis, a model is not verifiable directly by experiment. For all models are both true and false. Almost any plausible proposed relation among aspects of nature is likely to be true in the sense that it occurs (although rarely and slightly). Yet all models leave out a lot and are in that sense false, incomplete, inadequate. The validation of a model is not that it is 'true' but that it generates good testable hypotheses relevant to important problems. A model may be discarded in favor of a more powerful one, but it usually is simply outgrown when the live issues are not any longer those for which it was designed." (Richard Levins, "The Strategy of Model Building in Population Biology", American Scientist 54(4), 1966)

"For population genetics, a population is specified by the frequencies of genotypes without reference to the age distribution, physiological state as a reflection of past history, or population density. A single population or species is treated at a time, and evolution is usually assumed to occur in a constant environment. Population ecology, on the other hand, recognizes multispecies systems, describes populations in terms of their age distributions, physiological states, and densities. The environment is allowed to vary but the species are treated as genetically homogeneous, so that evolution is ignored." (Richard Levins, "The Strategy of Model Building in Population Biology", American Scientist 54(4), 1966)

"It is of course desirable to work with manageable models which maximize generality, realism, and precision toward the overlapping but not identical goals of understanding, predicting, and modifying nature. But this cannot be done. Therefore, several alternative strategies have evolved: (1) Sacrifice generality to realism and precision. (2) Sacrifice realism to generality and precision. (3) Sacrifice precision to realism and generality." (Richard Levins, "The strategy of model building in population biology", American Scientist Vol. 54 (4), 1966) 

"The multiplicity of models is imposed by the contradictory demands of a complex, heterogeneous nature and a mind that can only cope with few variables at a time; by the contradictory desiderata of generality, realism, and precision; by the need to understand and also to control; even by the opposing esthetic standards which emphasize the stark simplicity and power of a general theorem as against the richness and the diversity of living nature. These conflicts are irreconcilable. Therefore, the alternative approaches even of contending schools are part of a larger mixed strategy. But the conflict is about method, not nature, for the individual models, while they are essential for understanding reality, should not be confused with that reality itself." (Richard Levins, "The Strategy of Model Building in Population Biology", American Scientist 54(4), 1966)

"The validation of a model is not that it is 'true' but that it generates good testable hypotheses relevant to important problems." (Richard Levins, "The Strategy of Model Building in Population Biology", American Scientist 54(4), 1966)

"[…] truth is the intersection of independent lies." (Richard Levins, "The Strategy of Model Building in Population Biology", 1966)

"Unlike the theory, models are restricted by technical considerations to a few components at a time, even in systems which are complex. Thus a satisfactory theory is usually a cluster of models. These models are related to each other in several ways : as coordinate alternative models for the same set of phenomena, they jointly produce robust theorems; as complementary models they can cope with different aspects of the same problem and give complementary as well as overlapping results; as hierarchically arranged 'nested' models, each provides an interpretation of the sufficient parameters of the next higher level where they are taken as given." (Richard Levins, "The Strategy of Model Building in Population Biology", American Scientist 54(4), 1966)

"All evolutionary theories, whether of physical, biological, or social phenomena, are theories of change. The present state of a system is seen as different from its past states, and its future states are predicted to again differ from the present. But the simple assertion that past, present, and future differ from one another is not in itself an evolutionary world view." (Richard Levins & Richard C Lewontin, "The Dialectical Biologist", 1985)

"Parts and wholes evolve in consequence of their relationship, and the relationship itself evolves. These are the properties of things that we call dialectical: that one thing cannot exist without the other, that one acquires its properties from its relation to the other, that the properties of both evolve as a consequence of their interpenetration." (Richard Levins & Richard C Lewontin, "The Dialectical Biologist", 1985)

"The concept of adaptation implies that there is a preexistent form, problem, or ideal to which organisms are fitted by a dynamical process. The process is adaptation and the end result is the state of being adapted. Thus a key may be adapted to fit a lock by cutting and filing it, or a part made for one model of a machine may be used in a different model by using an adaptor to alter its shape. There cannot be adaptation with out the ideal model according to which the adaptation is taking place. Thus the very notion of adaptation inevitably carried over into modern biology the theological view of a preformed physical world to which organisms were fitted." (Richard Levins & Richard C Lewontin, "The Dialectical Biologist", 1985)

"The large-scale computer models of systems ecology do not fit under the heading of holism at all. Rather they are forms of large-scale reductionism: the objects of study are the naively given 'parts' -abundances or biomasses of populations. No new objects of study arise at the community level. The research is usually conducted on a single system - a lake, forest, or prairie - and the results are measurements of and projections for that lake, forest, or prairie, with no attempts to find the properties of lakes, forests, or prairies in general. Such modeling requires vast amounts of data for its simulations, and much of the scientific effort goes into problems of estimation." (Richard Levins & Richard C Lewontin, "The Dialectical Biologist", 1985)

"The organism cannot be regarded as simply the passive object of autonomous internal and external forces; it is also the subject of its own evolution." (Richard Levins & Richard C Lewontin, "The Dialectical Biologist", 1985)

"Things are similar: this makes science possible. Things are different: this makes science necessary. At various times in the history of science important advances have been made either by abstracting away differences to reveal similarity or by emphasizing the richness of variation within a seeming uniformity. But either choice by itself is ultimately misleading. The general does not completely contain the particular as cases, but the empiricist refusal to group, generalize, and abstract reduces science to collecting - if not specimens, then examples." (Richard Levins & Richard C Lewontin, "The Dialectical Biologist", 1985)

"We believe that science, in all its sense, is a social process that both causes and is caused by social organisation." (Richard Levins & Richard C Lewontin, "The Dialectical Biologist", 1985)

"We can hardly have a serious discussion of a science without abstraction. What makes science materialist is that the process of abstraction is explicit and recognized as historically contingent within the science. Abstraction becomes destructive when the abstract is reified and when the historical process of abstraction is forgotten, so that the abstract descriptions are taken for descriptions of the actual objects. The level of abstraction appropriate in a given science at a given time is a historical issue." (Richard Levins & Richard C Lewontin, "The Dialectical Biologist", 1985)

On Idealization: Models

"A material model is the representation of a complex system by a system which is assumed simpler and which is also assumed to have some properties similar to those selected for study in the original complex system. A formal model is a symbolic assertion in logical terms of an idealised relatively simple situation sharing the structural properties of the original factual system." (Arturo Rosenblueth & Norbert Wiener, "The Role of Models in Science", Philosophy of Science Vol. 12 (4), 1945)

"This model will be a simplification and an idealization, and consequently a falsification. It is to be hoped that the features retained for discussion are those of greatest importance in the present state of knowledge." (Alain M Turing, "The Chemical Basis of Morphogenesis" , Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 237 (641), 1952)

"The word model is used as a noun, adjective, and verb, and in each instance it has a slightly different connotation. As a noun 'model' is a representation in the sense in which an architect constructs a small-scale model of a building or a physicist a large-scale model of an atom. As an adjective 'model' implies a degree or perfection or idealization, as in reference to a model home, a model student, or a model husband. As a verb 'to model' means to demonstrate, to reveal, to show what a thing is like." (Russell L Ackoff, "Scientific method: optimizing applied research decisions", 1962)

"This other world is the so-called physical world image; it is merely an intellectual structure. To a certain extent it is arbitrary. It is a kind of model or idealization created in order to avoid the inaccuracy inherent in every measurement and to facilitate exact definition." (Max Planck, "The Philosophy of Physics", 1963)

"[…] mathematics is not portraying laws inherent in the design of the universe but is merely providing man-made schemes or models which we can use to deduce conclusions about our world only to the extent that the model is a good idealization." (Morris Kline, "Mathematics for the Nonmathematician", 1967)

"This distinction between regular and catastrophic points is obviously somewhat arbitrary because it depends on the fineness of the observation used. One might object, not without reason, that each point is catastrophic to sufficiently sensitive observational techniques. This is why the distinction is an idealization, to be made precise by a mathematical model, and to this end we summarize some ideas of qualitative dynamics." (René F Thom, "Structural Stability and Morphogenesis", 1972)

"To call a model an idealization is to suggest that the model is a simplification of what occurs in reality, usually a simplification which omits some relevant features, such as the extended mass of the planets or, in the example of the circuit model, the resistance in the bypass capacitor. Sometimes the omitted factors make only an insignificant contribution to the effect under study. But that does not seem to be essential to idealizations, especially to the idealizations that in the end are applied by engineers to study real things. In calling something an idealization it seems not so important that the contributions from omitted factors be small, but that they be ones for which we know how to correct. If the idealization is to be of use, when the time comes to apply it to a real system we had better know how to add back the contributions of the factors that have been left out. In that case the use of idealizations does not seem to counter realism: either the omitted factors do not matter much, or in principle we know how to treat them." (Nancy Cartwright, "How the Laws of Physics Lie", 1983)

"The assumption of rationality has a favored position in economics. It is accorded all the methodological privileges of a self-evident truth, a reasonable idealization, a tautology, and a null hypothesis. Each of these interpretations either puts the hypothesis of rational action beyond question or places the burden of proof squarely on any alternative analysis of belief and choice. The advantage of the rational model is compounded because no other theory of judgment and decision can ever match it in scope, power, and simplicity." (Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, "Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions", The Journal of Business Vol. 59 (4), 1986)

"[…] if a system is sufficiently complicated, the time it takes to return near a state already visited is huge (think of the hundred fleas on the checkerboard). Therefore if you look at the system for a moderate amount of time, eternal return is irrelevant, and you had better choose another idealization." (David Ruelle, "Chance and Chaos", 1991)

"[…] it does not seem helpful just to say that all models are wrong. The very word model implies simplification and idealization. The idea that complex physical, biological or sociological systems can be exactly described by a few formulae is patently absurd. The construction of idealized representations that capture important stable aspects of such systems is, however, a vital part of general scientific analysis and statistical models, especially substantive ones, do not seem essentially different from other kinds of model." (Sir David Cox, "Comment on ‘Model uncertainty, data mining and statistical inference’", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 158, 1995)

"Through modeling, scientists manipulate symbols with meanings to represent an environment with structure. Such manipulations take place to fulfill a human need, solve a problem, or create a product. When constructing a model, one works in the cognitive space of ideas. Models are used to encapsulate, highlight, replicate or represent patterns of events and the structures of things. Of course, no model provides an exact duplication of the subject matter being modeled. Details are hidden, features are skewed, and certain properties are emphasized. Models are abstract and idealized. As an abstraction, a model omits some features of the subject matter, while retaining only significant properties. As an idealization, a model depicts a subject's properties in a more perfect form." (Daniel Rothbart [Ed.], "Modeling: Gateway to the Unknown", 2004)

"Abstract formulations of simply stated concrete ideas are often the result of efforts to create idealized models of complex systems. The models are 'idealized' in the sense that they retain only the most fundamental properties of the original systems. The vocabulary is chosen to be as inclusive as possible so that research into the model reveals facts about a wide variety of similar systems. Unfortunately, it is often the case that over time the connection between a model and the systems on which it was based is lost, and the interested reader is faced with something that looks as if it were created to be deliberately complicated - deliberately confusing - but the original intention was just the opposite. Often, the model was devised to be simpler and more transparent than any of the systems on which it was based." (John Tabak, "Beyond Geometry: A new mathematics of space and form", 2011)

"Models can be: formulations, abstractions, replicas, idealizations, metaphors - and combinations of these. [...] Some mathematical models have been blindly used - their presuppositions as little understood as any legal fine print one ‘agrees to’ but never reads - with faith in their trustworthiness. The very arcane nature of some of the formulations of these models might have contributed to their being given so much credence. If so, we mathematicians have an important mission to perform: to help people who wish to think through the fundamental assumptions underlying models that are couched in mathematical language, making these models intelligible, rather than (merely) formidable Delphic oracles." (Barry Mazur, "The Authority of the Incomprehensible" , 2014)

“A mathematical model is a mathematical description (often by means of a function or an equation) of a real-world phenomenon such as the size of a population, the demand for a product, the speed of a falling object, the concentration of a product in a chemical reaction, the life expectancy of a person at birth, or the cost of emission reductions. The purpose of the model is to understand the phenomenon and perhaps to make predictions about future behavior. [...] A mathematical model is never a completely accurate representation of a physical situation - it is an idealization." (James Stewart, “Calculus: Early Transcedentals” 8th Ed., 2016)

On Models: Definitions

"A model is essentially a calculating engine designed to produce some output for a given input." (Richard C Lewontin, "Models, Mathematics and Metaphors", Synthese, Vol. 15, No. 2, 1963)

"A model is an abstract description of the real world. It is a simple representation of more complex forms, processes and functions of physical phenomena and ideas." (Moshe F Rubinstein & Iris R Firstenberg, "Patterns of Problem Solving", 1975)

"A model is an attempt to represent some segment of reality and explain, in a simplified manner, the way the segment operates." (E Frank Harrison, "The managerial decision-making process", 1975)

"A mathematical model is any complete and consistent set of mathematical equations which are designed to correspond to some other entity, its prototype. The prototype may be a physical, biological, social, psychological or conceptual entity, perhaps even another mathematical model." (Rutherford Aris, "Mathematical Modelling", 1978)

"A model is a representation containing the essential structure of some object or event in the real world." (David W Stockburger, "Introductory Statistics", 1996)

"A model is a deliberately simplified representation of a much more complicated situation. […] The idea is to focus on one or two causal or conditioning factors, exclude everything else, and hope to understand how just these aspects of reality work and interact." (Robert M Solow, "How Did Economics Get That Way and What Way Did It Get?", Daedalus, Vol. 126, No. 1, 1997)

"Models are synthetic sets of rules, pictures, and algorithms providing us with useful representations of the world of our perceptions and of their patterns." (Burton G Malkiel, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", 1999)

“A model is an imitation of reality and a mathematical model is a particular form of representation. We should never forget this and get so distracted by the model that we forget the real application which is driving the modelling. In the process of model building we are translating our real world problem into an equivalent mathematical problem which we solve and then attempt to interpret. We do this to gain insight into the original real world situation or to use the model for control, optimization or possibly safety studies." (Ian T Cameron & Katalin Hangos, “Process Modelling and Model Analysis”, 2001)

"[…] a conceptual model is a diagram connecting variables and constructs based on theory and logic that displays the hypotheses to be tested." (Mary Wolfinbarger Celsi et al, "Essentials of Business Research Methods", 2011)

"A model is a simplified representation of a system. It can be conceptual, verbal, diagrammatic, physical, or formal (mathematical)." (Hiroki Sayama, "Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems", 2015)

“A mathematical model is a mathematical description (often by means of a function or an equation) of a real-world phenomenon such as the size of a population, the demand for a product, the speed of a falling object, the concentration of a product in a chemical reaction, the life expectancy of a person at birth, or the cost of emission reductions. The purpose of the model is to understand the phenomenon and perhaps to make predictions about future behavior. [...] A mathematical model is never a completely accurate representation of a physical situation - it is an idealization." (James Stewart, “Calculus: Early Transcedentals” 8th Ed., 2016)

On Black Boxes

"The terms 'black box' and 'white box' are convenient and figurative expressions of not very well determined usage. I shall understand by a black box a piece of apparatus, such as four-terminal networks with two input and two output terminals, which performs a definite operation on the present and past of the input potential, but for which we do not necessarily have any information of the structure by which this operation is performed. On the other hand, a white box will be similar network in which we have built in the relation between input and output potentials in accordance with a definite structural plan for securing a previously determined input-output relation." (Norbert Wiener, "Cybernetics: Or Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine", 1948)

"The definition of a ‘good model’ is when everything inside it is visible, inspectable and testable. It can be communicated effortlessly to others. A ‘bad model’ is a model that does not meet these standards, where parts are hidden, undefined or concealed and it cannot be inspected or tested; these are often labelled black box models." (Hördur V Haraldsson & Harald U Sverdrup, "Finding Simplicity in Complexity in Biogeochemical Modelling" [in "Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity", Ed. by John Wainwright and Mark Mulligan, 2004])

"Operational thinking is about mapping relationships. It is about capturing interactions, interconnections, the sequence and flow of activities, and the rules of the game. It is about how systems do what they do, or the dynamic process of using elements of the structure to produce the desired functions. In a nutshell, it is about unlocking the black box that lies between system input and system output." (Jamshid Gharajedaghi, "Systems Thinking: Managing Chaos and Complexity A Platform for Designing Business Architecture" 3rd Ed., 2011)

"The transparency of Bayesian networks distinguishes them from most other approaches to machine learning, which tend to produce inscrutable 'black boxes'. In a Bayesian network you can follow every step and understand how and why each piece of evidence changed the network’s beliefs." (Judea Pearl & Dana Mackenzie, "The Book of Why: The new science of cause and effect", 2018)

"A recurring theme in machine learning is combining predictions across multiple models. There are techniques called bagging and boosting which seek to tweak the data and fit many estimates to it. Averaging across these can give a better prediction than any one model on its own. But here a serious problem arises: it is then very hard to explain what the model is (often referred to as a 'black box'). It is now a mixture of many, perhaps a thousand or more, models." (Robert Grant, "Data Visualization: Charts, Maps and Interactive Graphics", 2019)

"Deep neural networks have an input layer and an output layer. In between, are “hidden layers” that process the input data by adjusting various weights in order to make the output correspond closely to what is being predicted. [...] The mysterious part is not the fancy words, but that no one truly understands how the pattern recognition inside those hidden layers works. That’s why they’re called 'hidden'. They are an inscrutable black box - which is okay if you believe that computers are smarter than humans, but troubling otherwise." (Gary Smith & Jay Cordes, "The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science", 2019)

"The concept of integrated information is clearest when applied to networks. Imagine a black box with input and output terminals. Inside are some electronics, such as a network with logic elements (AND, OR, and so on) wired together. Viewed from the outside, it will usually not be possible to deduce the circuit layout simply by examining the cause–effect relationship between inputs and outputs, because functionally equivalent black boxes can be built from very different circuits. But if the box is opened, it’s a different story. Suppose you use a pair of cutters to sever some wires in the network. Now rerun the system with all manner of inputs. If a few snips dramatically alter the outputs, the circuit can be described as highly integrated, whereas in a circuit with low integration the effect of some snips may make no difference at all." (Paul Davies, "The Demon in the Machine: How Hidden Webs of Information Are Solving the Mystery of Life", 2019)

"Big data is revolutionizing the world around us, and it is easy to feel alienated by tales of computers handing down decisions made in ways we don’t understand. I think we’re right to be concerned. Modern data analytics can produce some miraculous results, but big data is often less trustworthy than small data. Small data can typically be scrutinized; big data tends to be locked away in the vaults of Silicon Valley. The simple statistical tools used to analyze small datasets are usually easy to check; pattern-recognizing algorithms can all too easily be mysterious and commercially sensitive black boxes." (Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

"If the data that go into the analysis are flawed, the specific technical details of the analysis don’t matter. One can obtain stupid results from bad data without any statistical trickery. And this is often how bullshit arguments are created, deliberately or otherwise. To catch this sort of bullshit, you don’t have to unpack the black box. All you have to do is think carefully about the data that went into the black box and the results that came out. Are the data unbiased, reasonable, and relevant to the problem at hand? Do the results pass basic plausibility checks? Do they support whatever conclusions are drawn?" (Carl T Bergstrom & Jevin D West, "Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World", 2020)

"This problem with adding additional variables is referred to as the curse of dimensionality. If you add enough variables into your black box, you will eventually find a combination of variables that performs well - but it may do so by chance. As you increase the number of variables you use to make your predictions, you need exponentially more data to distinguish true predictive capacity from luck." (Carl T Bergstrom & Jevin D West, "Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World", 2020)

On Models: Statistical Models II

"Statistical models in the social sciences rely on correlations, generally not causes, of our behavior. It is inevitable that such models of reality do not capture reality well. This explains the excess of false positives and false negatives." (Kaiser Fung, "Numbersense: How To Use Big Data To Your Advantage", 2013)

"Statistically speaking, the best predictive models are gems." (Kaiser Fung, "Numbersense: How To Use Big Data To Your Advantage", 2013)

"A statistical model is a relatively simple approximation to account for complex phenomena that generate data. A statistical model consists of one or more equations involving both random variables and parameters. The random variables have stated or assumed distributions. The parameters are unknown fixed quantities. The random components of statistical models account for the inherent variability in most observed phenomena." (Richard M Heiberger & Burt Holland, "Statistics Concepts", 2015)

"An oft-repeated rule of thumb in any sort of statistical model fitting is 'you can't fit a model with more parameters than data points'. This idea appears to be as wide-spread as it is incorrect. On the contrary, if you construct your models carefully, you can fit models with more parameters than datapoints [...]. A model with more parameters than datapoints is known as an under-determined system, and it's a common misperception that such a model cannot be solved in any circumstance. [...] this misconception, which I like to call the 'model complexity myth' [...] is not true in general, it is true in the specific case of simple linear models, which perhaps explains why the myth is so pervasive." (Jake Vanderplas, "The Model Complexity Myth", 2015) [source]

"Machine learning takes many different forms and goes by many different names: pattern recognition, statistical modeling, data mining, knowledge discovery, predictive analytics, data science, adaptive systems, self-organizing systems, and more. Each of these is used by different communities and has different associations. Some have a long half-life, some less so." (Pedro Domingos, "The Master Algorithm", 2015)

"In machine learning, knowledge is often in the form of statistical models, because most knowledge is statistical [...] Machine learning is a kind of knowledge pump: we can use it to extract a lot of knowledge from data, but first we have to prime the pump." (Pedro Domingos, "The Master Algorithm", 2015)

"One final warning about the use of statistical models (whether linear or otherwise): The estimated model describes the structure of the data that have been observed. It is unwise to extend this model very far beyond the observed data." (David S Salsburg, "Errors, Blunders, and Lies: How to Tell the Difference", 2017)

"The central limit conjecture states that most errors are the result of many small errors and, as such, have a normal distribution. The assumption of a normal distribution for error has many advantages and has often been made in applications of statistical models." (David S Salsburg, "Errors, Blunders, and Lies: How to Tell the Difference", 2017)

"When we use algebraic notation in statistical models, the problem becomes more complicated because we cannot 'observe' a probability and know its exact number. We can only estimate probabilities on the basis of observations." (David S Salsburg, "Errors, Blunders, and Lies: How to Tell the Difference", 2017)

"Any fool can fit a statistical model, given the data and some software. The real challenge is to decide whether it actually fits the data adequately. It might be the best that can be obtained, but still not good enough to use." (Robert Grant, "Data Visualization: Charts, Maps and Interactive Graphics", 2019)

"Statistical models have two main components. First, a mathematical formula that expresses a deterministic, predictable component, for example the fitted straight line that enables us to make a prediction [...]. But the deterministic part of a model is not going to be a perfect representation of the observed world [...] and the difference between what the model predicts, and what actually happens, is the second component of a model and is known as the residual error - although it is important to remember that in statistical modelling, ‘error’ does not refer to a mistake, but the inevitable inability of a model to exactly represent what we observe." (David Spiegelhalter, "The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data", 2019)

On Models: Statistical Models I

"The most widely used mathematical tools in the social sciences are statistical, and the prevalence of statistical methods has given rise to theories so abstract and so hugely complicated that they seem a discipline in themselves, divorced from the world outside learned journals. Statistical theories usually assume that the behavior of large numbers of people is a smooth, average 'summing-up' of behavior over a long period of time. It is difficult for them to take into account the sudden, critical points of important qualitative change. The statistical approach leads to models that emphasize the quantitative conditions needed for equilibrium - a balance of wages and prices, say, or of imports and exports. These models are ill suited to describe qualitative change and social discontinuity, and it is here that catastrophe theory may be especially helpful." (Alexander Woodcock & Monte Davis, "Catastrophe Theory", 1978)

"When evaluating a model, at least two broad standards are relevant. One is whether the model is consistent with the data. The other is whether the model is consistent with the ‘real world.’" (Kenneth Bollen, "Structural Equations with Latent Variable", 1989)

"Statistical models are sometimes misunderstood in epidemiology. Statistical models for data are never true. The question whether a model is true is irrelevant. A more appropriate question is whether we obtain the correct scientific conclusion if we pretend that the process under study behaves according to a particular statistical model." (Scott Zeger, "Statistical reasoning in epidemiology", American Journal of Epidemiology, 1991)

"Statistical models for data are never true. The question whether a model is true is irrelevant. A more appropriate question is whether we obtain the correct scientific conclusion if we pretend that the process under study behaves according to a particular statistical model." (Scott Zeger, "Statistical reasoning in epidemiology", American Journal of Epidemiology, 1991)

"[…] it does not seem helpful just to say that all models are wrong. The very word model implies simplification and idealization. The idea that complex physical, biological or sociological systems can be exactly described by a few formulae is patently absurd. The construction of idealized representations that capture important stable aspects of such systems is, however, a vital part of general scientific analysis and statistical models, especially substantive ones, do not seem essentially different from other kinds of model." (Sir David Cox, "Comment on ‘Model uncertainty, data mining and statistical inference’", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 158, 1995)

"Building statistical models is just like this. You take a real situation with real data, messy as this is, and build a model that works to explain the behavior of real data." (Martha Stocking, New York Times, 2000)

"The role of graphs in probabilistic and statistical modeling is threefold: (1) to provide convenient means of expressing substantive assumptions; (2) to facilitate economical representation of joint probability functions; and (3) to facilitate efficient inferences from observations." (Judea Pearl, "Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference", 2000)

"It is impossible to construct a model that provides an entirely accurate picture of network behavior. Statistical models are almost always based on idealized assumptions, such as independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) interarrival times, and it is often difficult to capture features such as machine breakdowns, disconnected links, scheduled repairs, or uncertainty in processing rates." (Sean Meyn, "Control Techniques for Complex Networks", 2008)

"Statistical cognition is concerned with obtaining cognitive evidence about various statistical techniques and ways to present data. It’s certainly important to choose an appropriate statistical model, use the correct formulas, and carry out accurate calculations. It’s also important, however, to focus on understanding, and to consider statistics as communication between researchers and readers." (Geoff Cumming, "Understanding the New Statistics", 2012)

"In general, when building statistical models, we must not forget that the aim is to understand something about the real world. Or predict, choose an action, make a decision, summarize evidence, and so on, but always about the real world, not an abstract mathematical world: our models are not the reality - a point well made by George Box in his oft-cited remark that "all models are wrong, but some are useful". (David Hand, "Wonderful examples, but let's not close our eyes", Statistical Science 29, 2014)

Robert B Dilts - Collected Quotes

"Another implication of the Law of Requisite Variety is that the member of a system that has the most flexibility also tends to be the catalytic member of that system. This is a significant principle for leadership in particular. The ability to be flexible and sensitive to variation is important in terms of managing the system itself." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"Behavior modeling involves observing and mapping the successful processes which underlie an exceptional performance of some type. It is the process of taking a complex event or series of events and breaking it into small enough chunks so that it can be recapitulated in some way. The purpose of behavior modeling is to create a pragmatic map or 'model' of that behavior which can be used to reproduce or simulate some aspect of that performance by anyone who is motivated to do so. The goal of the behavior modeling process is to identify the essential elements of thought and action required to produce the desired response or outcome. As opposed to providing purely correlative or statistical data, a 'model' of a particular behavior must provide a description of what is necessary to actually achieve a similar result." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"Competence involves consistency. But as soon as you are consistent in one area, you need to have flexibility in another area to be able to accommodate to the part of the system that is not changing." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"Features are the specific qualities or characteristics that we decide to filter for as we are modeling." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"From the NLP perspective, there are inductive transformations, through which we perceive patterns in, and build maps of, the world around us; and there are deductive transformations, through which we describe and act on our perceptions and models of the world. Inductive transformations involve the process of 'chunking up' to find the deeper structure patterns ('concepts', 'ideas', 'universals', etc.) in the collections of experiences we receive through our senses. Deductive transformations operate to 'chunk down' our experiential deep structures into surface structures; rendering general ideas and concepts into specific words, actions and other forms of behavioral output." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"In the NLP view, then, 'reality' is the relationship and interaction between deep structures and surface structures. Thus, there are many possible 'realities'. It is not as if there is 'a map' and 'a territory', there are many possible territories and maps, and the territory is continually changing, partially as a function of the way in which people's maps lead them to interact with that territory." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"[...] modeling involves achieving two simultaneous outcomes - getting a particular result, and, at the same time, learning explicitly how to do it. It is this feature that makes modeling one of the most powerful forms of 'learning to learn' that is available. [...] Modeling is the process of taking a complex event or phenomenon and breaking it into small enough chunks so that it can be recapitulated or applied in some way." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"Modeling is essentially a process of 'sharing ideas'. The ability to model effectively opens the door to many possibilities that have previously been unavailable to humankind. In addition to providing a methodology which can be used to make ideas more explicit and easier to communicate, modeling can transform the way we view and perceive one another." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"Models are not intended to either reflect or construct a single objective reality. Rather, their purpose is to simulate some aspect of a possible reality. In NLP, for instance, it is not important whether or not a model is 'true', but rather that it is 'useful'. In fact, all models can be perceived as symbolic or metaphoric, as opposed to reflective of reality. Whether the description being used is metaphorical or literal, the usefulness of a model depends on the degree to which it allows us to move effectively to the next step in the sequence of transformations connecting deeper structures and surface structures. Instead of 'constructing' reality, models establish a set of functions that serve as a tool or a bridge between deep structures and surface structures. It is this bridge that forms our 'understanding' of reality and allows us to generate new experiences and expressions of reality." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"Neural networks are computer structures, based on the way in which the brain functions. They are used to recognize complex patterns. They typically involve a number of interconnected elements that are used to create a type of "model" of some pattern or phenomenon. The model is formed as a function of the 'weights,' or strengths, of the connections between the elements in the network. This inner 'model' determines the output of the network." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"NLP contains a set of principles and distinctions which are uniquely suited to analyze and identify crucial patterns of values, behavior and interrelationships so that they may be put into pragmatic and testable implementations." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"NLP is the process by which the relevant pieces of these people's behavior was discovered and then organized into a working model." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"NLP operates from the assumption that the map is not the territory. As human beings, we can never know reality, in the sense that we have to experience reality through our senses and our senses are limited. [...] We can only make maps of the reality around us through the information that we receive through our senses and the connection of that information to our own personal memories and other experiences. Therefore, we don't tend to respond to reality itself, but rather to our own maps of reality." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"On one level, it's not possible to completely isolate anyone part of a system from another. People are influenced by many aspects of the system around them. It is important to take into account not only the processes that are happening within the individual, but also the influences on that person from the system around him or her." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"One of the goals of NLP is to identify problematic generalizations, deletions or distortions through the analysis of the 'syntax' or form of the surface structure and provide a system of tools so that a more enriched representation of the deep structure may be attained. Another goal of NLP, represented by the modeling process, is to be able to create better links and pathways between surface structures and deep structures." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"One of the real secrets of managing creativity effectively is determining where to put the point of flexibility. It is ultimately a matter of ecology." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"Perceiving a situation or experience from multiple perspectives allows a person to gain broader insight and understanding with respect to the event." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"Reality is a set of structural transforms of primary data taken from the world. The conversion of primary data into structures involves the selective deletion, distortion or generalization of primary data. The mind can neither mirror nor construct reality. 'Stronger' structures are formed from 'weaker' structures through selective destruction of information. Primary data becomes meaningful only after a series of such operations has transformed it to be congruent with a preexisting structure." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"The focus of most NLP modeling processes is at the level of capabilities, the how to level. Capabilities connect beliefs and values to specific behaviors. Without the how, knowing what one is supposed to do, and even why to do it, is largely ineffective. Capabilities and skills provide the links and leverage to manifest our vision, identity, values and beliefs as actions in a particular environment." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"The key to any effective model of behavior, however, is to find those distinctions which are the most fundamental, simple and impactful for producing practical results in the context in which one is operating." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"[...] the Law of Requisite Variety states that 'in order to successfully adapt and survive, a member of a system needs a certain minimum amount of flexibility, and that flexibility has to be proportional to the potential variation or the uncertainty in the rest of the system'. In other words, if someone is committed to accomplishing a certain goal, he or she needs to have a number of possible ways to reach it. The number of options required to be certain the goal can be reached depends on the amount of change that is possible within the system in which one is attempting to achieve the goal." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"The NLP modeling process consists of applying various strategies for examining the mental and physical processes which underlie a particular performance or the achievement of a particular result, and then creating some type of explicit map or description of those processes which can be applied for some practical purpose. Various modeling strategies delineate different sequences of steps and types of distinctions through which relevant patterns may discovered and formed into descriptions."  (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"The objective of the NLP modeling process is not to end up with the one 'right' or 'true' description of a particular person's thinking process, but rather to make an instrumental map that allows us to apply the strategies that we have modeled in some useful way. An 'instrumental map' is one that allows us to act more effectively - the 'accuracy' or 'reality' of the map is less important than its 'usefulness'." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"[...] the philosophy of NLP is that effective learning and change involves initially setting goals, evidence and evidence procedures to reach a particular desired state. A wide coverage of strategies and activities are then provided in order to be able to vary the operations applied to reach goals." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"The primary function of NLP tools and techniques is to help to widen, enrich or add to our maps of the world. The basic presupposition of NLP is that the richer your map of the world is, the more possibilities that you have of dealing with whatever challenges occur in reality." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"[...] there is no one 'right' or 'correct' map of the world. We all have our own world view and that world view is based upon the sort of neurolinguistic maps that we have formed. It's these neurolinguistic maps that will determine how we interpret and how we react to the world around us and give meaning to our behaviors and our experiences, more so than reality itself. Thus, it is generally not external reality that limits us, constrains us, or empowers us, but rather it is our map of that reality. The basic idea of NLP is that if you can enrich or widen your map, you will perceive more choices available to you given the same reality." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

"When modeling, it is important to always keep in mind that no single pattern finding method is foolproof." (Robert B Dilts, "Modeling with NLP", 1998)

Leo Breiman - Collected Quotes

"Probability theory has a right and a left hand. On the right is the rigorous foundational work using the tools of measure theory. The left hand 'thinks probabilistically', reduces problems to gambling situations, coin-tossing, motions of a physical particle." (Leo Breiman, "Probability", 1992) 

"Approaching problems by looking for a data model imposes an a priori straight jacket that restricts the ability of statisticians to deal with a wide range of statistical problems. The best available solution to a data problem might be a data model; then again it might be an algorithmic model. The data and the problem guide the solution. To solve a wider range of data problems, a larger set of tools is needed." (Leo Breiman, "Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures", Statistical Science 16(3), 2001)

"As I left consulting to go back to the university, these were the perceptions I had about working with data to find answers to problems: (a) Focus on finding a good solution–that’s what consultants get paid for. (b) Live with the data before you plunge into modelling. (c) Search for a model that gives a good solution, either algorithmic or data. (d) Predictive accuracy on test sets is the criterion for how good the model is. (e) Computers are an indispensable partner." (Leo Breiman, "Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures", Statistical Science Vol. 16(3), 2001)

"Data modeling has given the statistics field many successes in analyzing data and getting information about the mechanisms producing the data. But there is also misuse leading to questionable conclusions about the underlying mechanism." (Leo Breiman, "Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures", Statistical Science 16(3), 2001)

"One goal of statistics is to extract information from the data about the underlying mechanism producing the data. The greatest plus of data modeling is that it produces a simple and understandable picture of the relationship between the input variables and responses." (Leo Breiman, "Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures", Statistical Science 16(3), 2001)

"Prediction is rarely perfect. There are usually many unmeasured variables whose effect is referred to as 'noise'. But the extent to which the model box emulates nature's box is a measure of how well our model can reproduce the natural phenomenon producing the data." (Leo Breiman, "Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures", Statistical Science 16(3), 2001)

"Residual analysis is similarly unreliable. In a discussion after a presentation of residual analysis in a seminar at Berkeley in 1993, William Cleveland, one of the fathers of residual analysis, admitted that it could not uncover lack of fit in more than four to five dimensions. The papers I have read on using residual analysis to check lack of fit are confined to data sets with two or three variables. With higher dimensions, the interactions between the variables can produce passable residual plots for a variety of models. A residual plot is a goodness-of-fit test, and lacks power in more than a few dimensions. An acceptable residual plot does not imply that the model is a good fit to the data." (Leo Breiman, "Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures", Statistical Science Vol. 16(3), 2001)

"The goals in statistics are to use data to predict and to get information about the underlying data mechanism. Nowhere is it written on a stone tablet what kind of model should be used to solve problems involving data. To make my position clear, I am not against data models per se. In some situations they are the most appropriate way to solve the problem. But the emphasis needs to be on the problem and on the data." (Leo Breiman, "Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures", Statistical Science 16(3), 2001)

"The greatest plus of data modeling is that it produces a simple and understandable picture of the relationship between the input variables and responses [...] different models, all of them equally good, may give different pictures of the relation between the predictor and response variables [...] One reason for this multiplicity is that goodness-of-fit tests and other methods for checking fit give a yes–no answer. With the lack of power of these tests with data having more than a small number of dimensions, there will be a large number of models whose fit is acceptable. There is no way, among the yes–no methods for gauging fit, of determining which is the better model." (Leo Breiman, "Statistical Modeling: The two cultures", Statistical Science 16(3), 2001)

"The point of a model is to get useful information about the relation between the response and predictor variables. Interpretability is a way of getting information. But a model does not have to be simple to provide reliable information about the relation between predictor and response variables; neither does it have to be a data model." (Leo Breiman, "Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures", Statistical Science 16(3), 2001)

"The roots of statistics, as in science, lie in working with data and checking theory against data." (Leo Breiman, "Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures", Statistical Science 16(3), 2001)

"There are two cultures in the use of statistical modeling to reach conclusions from data. One assumes that the data are generated by a given stochastic data model. The other uses algorithmic models and treats the data mechanism as unknown. The statistical community has been committed to the almost exclusive use of data models. This commitment has led to irrelevant theory, questionable conclusions, and has kept statisticians from working on a large range of interesting current problems. Algorithmic modeling, both in theory and practice, has developed rapidly in fields outside statistics. It can be used both on large complex data sets and as a more accurate and informative alternative to data modeling on smaller data sets. If our goal as a field is to use data to solve problems, then we need to move away from exclusive dependence on data models and adopt a more diverse set of tools." (Leo Breiman, "Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures", Statistical Science 16(3), 2001)

On Construction IV: Models

" […] as a general rule, that in selecting a particular case for constructing a model the first prerequisite is regularity. By selecting a symmetrical form for the model, not only is the execution simplified, but what is of more importance, the model will be of such a character as to impress itself readily on the mind." (Felix Klein, 1893)

"To use an old analogy - and here we can hardly go except upon analogy - while the building of Nature is growing spontaneously from within, the model of it, which we seek to construct in our descriptive science, can only be constructed by means of scaffolding from without, a scaffolding of hypotheses. While in the real building all is continuous, in our model there are detached parts which must be connected with the rest by temporary ladders and passages, or which must be supported till we can see how to fill in the understructure. To give the hypotheses equal validity with facts is to confuse the temporary scaffolding with the building itself." (John H Poynting, 1899)

"[…] we can only study Nature through our senses - that is […] we can only study the model of Nature that our senses enable our minds to construct; we cannot decide whether that model, consistent though it be, represents truly the real structure of Nature; whether, indeed, there be any Nature as an ultimate reality behind its phenomena." (William C Dampier, "The Recent Development of Physical Science", 1904)

"Physics is the attempt at the conceptual construction of a model of the real world and its lawful structure." (Albert Einstein, [letter to Moritz Schlick] 1931)

"The sciences do not try to explain, they hardly even try to interpret, they mainly make models. By a model is meant a mathematical construct which, with the addition of certain verbal interpretations, describes observed phenomena. The justification of such a mathematical construct is solely and precisely that it is expected to work" (John Von Neumann, "Method in the Physical Sciences", 1955)

"General Systems Theory is a name which has come into use to describe a level of theoretical model-building which lies somewhere between the highly generalized constructions of pure mathematics and the specific theories of the specialized disciplines. Mathematics attempts to organize highly general relationships into a coherent system, a system however which does not have any necessary connections with the 'real' world around us. It studies all thinkable relationships abstracted from any concrete situation or body of empirical knowledge." (Kenneth E Boulding, "General Systems Theory - The Skeleton of Science", Management Science Vol. 2 (3), 1956)

"[a pictorial representation] is not a faithful record of a visual experience, but the faithful construction of a relational model […] Such a model can be constructed to any required degree of accuracy . What is decisive here is clearly the word 'required'. The form of a representation cannot be divorced from its purpose and the requirements of the society in which the given visual language gains currency." (Ernst H Gombrich," Art and illusion", 1960)

"In fact, the construction of mathematical models for various fragments of the real world, which is the most essential business of the applied mathematician, is nothing but an exercise in axiomatics." (Marshall Stone, cca 1960)

"[…] no models are [true] = not even the Newtonian laws. When you construct a model you leave out all the details which you, with the knowledge at your disposal, consider inessential. […] Models should not be true, but it is important that they are applicable, and whether they are applicable for any given purpose must of course be investigated. This also means that a model is never accepted finally, only on trial." (Georg Rasch, "Probabilistic Models for Some Intelligence and Attainment Tests", 1960)

"[...] sciences do not try to explain, they hardly even try to interpret, they mainly make models. By a model is meant a mathematical construct which, with the addition of certain verbal interpretations, describes observed phenomena. The justification of such a mathematical construct is solely and precisely that it is expected to work - that is, correctly to describe phenomena from a reasonably wide area. Furthermore, it must satisfy certain aesthetic criteria - that is, in relation to how much it describes, it must be rather simple." (John von Neumann, "Method in the physical sciences", 1961)

"Cybernetics is concerned primarily with the construction of theories and models in science, without making a hard and fast distinction between the physical and the biological sciences. The theories and models occur both in symbols and in hardware, and by 'hardware’ we shall mean a machine or computer built in terms of physical or chemical, or indeed any handleable parts. Most usually we shall think of hardware as meaning electronic parts such as valves and relays. Cybernetics insists, also, on a further and rather special condition that distinguishes it from ordinary scientific theorizing: it demands a certain standard of effectiveness. In this respect it has acquired some of the same motive power that has driven research on modern logic, and this is especially true in the construction and application of artificial languages and the use of operational definitions. Always the search is for precision and effectiveness, and we must now discuss the question of effectiveness in some detail. It should be noted that when we talk in these terms we are giving pride of place to the theory of automata at the expense, at least to some extent, of feedback and information theory." (Frank H George, "The Brain As A Computer", 1962)

"Science begins with the world we have to live in, accepting its data and trying to explain its laws. From there, it moves toward the imagination: it becomes a mental construct, a model of a possible way of interpreting experience." (Northrop Frye, "The Educated Imagination", 1964)

"The usefulness of the models in constructing a testable theory of the process is severely limited by the quickly increasing number of parameters which must be estimated in order to compare the predictions of the models with empirical results" (Anatol Rapoport, "Prisoner's Dilemma: A study in conflict and cooperation", 1965)

"Knowing reality means constructing systems of transformations that correspond, more or less adequately, to reality. They are more or less isomorphic to transformations of reality. The transformational structures of which knowledge consists are not copies of the transformations in reality; they are simply possible isomorphic models among which experience can enable us to choose. Knowledge, then, is a system of transformations that become progressively adequate." (Jean Piaget, "Genetic Epistemology", 1968)

"Models are not intended to either reflect or construct a single objective reality. Rather, their purpose is to simulate some aspect of a possible reality. In NLP, for instance, it is not important whether or not a model is 'true' , but rather that it is 'useful'. In fact, all models can be perceived as symbolic or metaphoric, as opposed to reflective of reality. Whether the description being used is metaphorical or literal, the usefulness of a model depends on the degree to which it allows us to move effectively to the next step in the sequence of transformations connecting deeper structures and surface structures. Instead of 'constructing' reality, models establish a set of functions that serve as a tool or a bridge between deep structures and surface structures. It is this bridge that forms our 'understanding' of reality and allows us to generate new experiences and expressions of reality." (Richard Bandler & John Grinder, "The Structure of Magic", 1975)

"In physics it is usual to give alternative theoretical treatments of the same phenomenon. We construct different models for different purposes, with different equations to describe them. Which is the right model, which the 'true' set of equations? The question is a mistake. One model brings out some aspects of the phenomenon; a different model brings out others. Some equations give a rougher estimate for a quantity of interest, but are easier to solve. No single model serves all purposes best." (Nancy Cartwright, "How the Laws of Physics Lie", 1983)

"Physics is like that. It is important that the models we construct allow us to draw the right conclusions about the behaviour of the phenomena and their causes. But it is not essential that the models accurately describe everything that actually happens; and in general it will not be possible for them to do so, and for much the same reasons. The requirements of the theory constrain what can be literally represented. This does not mean that the right lessons cannot be drawn. Adjustments are made where literal correctness does not matter very much in order to get the correct effects where we want them; and very often, as in the staging example, one distortion is put right by another. That is why it often seems misleading to say that a particular aspect of a model is false to reality: given the other constraints that is just the way to restore the representation." (Nancy Cartwright, "How the Laws of Physics Lie", 1983)

"Concepts are inventions of the human mind used to construct a model of the world. They package reality into discrete units for further processing, they support powerful mechanisms for doing logic, and they are indispensable for precise, extended chains of reasoning. […] A mental model is a cognitive construct that describes a person's understanding of a particular content domain in the world." (John Sown, "Conceptual Structures: Information Processing in Mind and Machine", 1984)

"Even if there is only one possible unified theory, it is just a set of rules and equations. What is it that breathes fire into the equations and makes a universe for them to describe? The usual approach of science of constructing a mathematical model cannot answer the questions of why there should be a universe for the model to describe. Why does the universe go to all the bother of existing?" (Stephen W Hawking, "A Brief History of Time: From the Big Bang to Black Holes", 1988)

"The usual approach of science of constructing a mathematical model cannot answer the questions of why there should be a universe for the model to describe. Why does the universe go to all the bother of existing?" (Stephen Hawking, "A Brief History of Time", 1988)

"We build mental models that represent significant aspects of our physical and social world, and we manipulate elements of those models when we think, plan, and try to explain events of that world. The ability to construct and manipulate valid models of reality provides humans with our distinctive adaptive advantage; it must be considered one of the crowning achievements of the human intellect." (Gordon H Bower & Daniel G Morrow, 1990)

"We construct mental models that provide us with situations in which we can interact with mental objects that represent objects, properties and relations and that behave in ways that simulate the objects, properties and relations that our models represent. […] The concepts and principles that a person understands, in this sense, are embedded in the kinds of objects that he or she includes in mental models and in the ways in which those objects behave, including how they combine and separate to form other objects." (James G Greeno, "Number sense as situated knowing in a conceptual domain", Journal for Research on Mathematics Education Vol. 22 No. 3, 1991)

"A model is something one tries to construct when one has to describe a complicated situation. A model is therefore an approximate description of reality and invariably involves many simplifying assumptions. […] models are convenient idealisations." (Ganeschan Venkataraman, "Chandrasekhar and His Limit", 1992)

"Pedantry and sectarianism aside, the aim of theoretical physics is to construct mathematical models such as to enable us, from the use of knowledge gathered in a few observations, to predict by logical processes the outcomes in many other circumstances. Any logically sound theory satisfying this condition is a good theory, whether or not it be derived from ‘ultimate’ or ‘fundamental’ truth." (Clifford Truesdell & Walter Noll, "The Non-Linear Field Theories of Mechanics" 2nd Ed., 1992)

"[…] it does not seem helpful just to say that all models are wrong. The very word model implies simplification and idealization. The idea that complex physical, biological or sociological systems can be exactly described by a few formulae is patently absurd. The construction of idealized representations that capture important stable aspects of such systems is, however, a vital part of general scientific analysis and statistical models, especially substantive ones, do not seem essentially different from other kinds of model." (Sir David Cox, "Comment on ‘Model uncertainty, data mining and statistical inference’", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 158, 1995)

"The science of statistics may be described as exploring, analyzing and summarizing data; designing or choosing appropriate ways of collecting data and extracting information from them; and communicating that information. Statistics also involves constructing and testing models for describing chance phenomena. These models can be used as a basis for making inferences and drawing conclusions and, finally, perhaps for making decisions." (Fergus Daly et al, "Elements of Statistics", 1995)

"We all depend on models to interpret our everyday experiences. We interpret what we see in terms of mental models constructed on past experience and education. They are constructs that we use to understand the pattern of our experiences." (David Bartholomew, "What is Statistics?", 1995)

"Science begins with the world we have to live in, accepting its data and trying to explain its laws. From there, it moves toward the imagination: it becomes a mental construct, a model of a possible way of interpreting experience. The further it goes in this direction, the more it tends to speak the language of mathematics, which is really one of the languages of the imagination, along with literature and music." (Northrop Frye, "The Educated Imagination", 2002)

"The claim that scientific models are metaphors is tied to the fact that often an analogy is exploited to construct a model about a phenomenon. [...] Scientific models appear to be, contrary to past research traditions, as central in scientific practice for describing and communicating aspects of the empirical world as metaphors are in ordinary language." (Daniela M Bailer-Jones," Models, Metaphors and Analogies", 2002)

"Fuzzy models should make good predictions even when they are asked to predict on regions that were not excited during the construction of the model. The generalization capabilities can be controlled by an appropriate initialization of the consequences (prior knowledge) and the use of the recursive least squares to improve the prior choices. The prior knowledge can be obtained from the data." (Jairo Espinosa et al, "Fuzzy Logic, Identification and Predictive Control", 2005)

"Although fiction is not fact, paradoxically we need some fictions, particularly mathematical ideas and highly idealized models, to describe, explain, and predict facts.  This is not because the universe is mathematical, but because our brains invent or use refined and law-abiding fictions, not only for intellectual pleasure but also to construct conceptual models of reality." (Mario Bunge, "Chasing Reality: Strife over Realism", 2006)

"Prom the processing view, the model theory distinguishes between three different operations. In the construction phase, reasoners construct the mental model that reflects the information from the premises. In the inspection phase, this model is inspected to find new information that is not explicitly given in the premises. In most variants of the model theory, the inspection process is conceptualized as a spatial focus that scans the model to find new information not given in the premises.. In the variation phase, reasoners try to construct alternative models from the premises that refute the putative conclusion. If no such model is found, the putative conclusion is considered true." (Carsten Held et al, "Mental Models and the Mind", 2006)

"In order to understand how mathematics is applied to understanding of the real world it is convenient to subdivide it into the following three modes of functioning: model, theory, metaphor. A mathematical model describes a certain range of phenomena qualitatively or quantitatively. […] A (mathematical) metaphor, when it aspires to be a cognitive tool, postulates that some complex range of phenomena might be compared to a mathematical construction." (Yuri I Manin," Mathematics as Metaphor: Selected Essays of Yuri I. Manin", 2007)

"Just as physicists have created models of the atom based on observed data and intuitive synthesis of the patterns in their data, so must designers create models of users based on observed behaviors and intuitive synthesis of the patterns in the data. Only after we formalize such patterns can we hope to systematically construct patterns of interaction that smoothly match the behavior patterns, mental models, and goals of users. Personas provide this formalization." (Alan Cooper et al, "About Face 3: The Essentials of Interaction Design", 2007)

"Although complexity of the physical system is both intimidating and unavoidable in typical networks, for the purposes of control design it is frequently possible to construct models of reduced complexity that lead to effective control solutions for the physical system of interest. These idealized models also serve to enhance intuition regarding network behavior." (Sean Meyn, "Control Techniques for Complex Networks", 2008)

"It is impossible to construct a model that provides an entirely accurate picture of network behavior. Statistical models are almost always based on idealized assumptions, such as independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) interarrival times, and it is often difficult to capture features such as machine breakdowns, disconnected links, scheduled repairs, or uncertainty in processing rates." (Sean Meyn, "Control Techniques for Complex Networks", 2008)

"There are actually two sides to the success of mathematics in explaining the world around us (a success that Wigner dubbed ‘the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics’), one more astonishing than the other. First, there is an aspect one might call ‘active’. When physicists wander through nature’s labyrinth, they light their way by mathematics - the tools they use and develop, the models they construct, and the explanations they conjure are all mathematical in nature. This, on the face of it, is a miracle in itself. […] But there is also a ‘passive’ side to the mysterious effectiveness of mathematics, and it is so surprising that the 'active' aspect pales by comparison. Concepts and relations explored by mathematicians only for pure reasons - with absolutely no application in mind—turn out decades (or sometimes centuries) later to be the unexpected solutions to problems grounded in physical reality!" (Mario Livio, "Is God a Mathematician?", 2011)

Richard Haberman - Collected Quotes

"If our intuition about a problem does not correspond to what a mathematical formula predicts, then further investigations of the problem are necessary. Perhaps the intuition is incorrect, in which case the mathematical formulation and solution has aided in directly improving one's qualitative understanding. On the other hand, it may occur that the intuition is correct and consequently that either there was a mathematical error in the derivation of the formula or the model upon which the analysis is based may need improvement." (Richard Haberman, "Mathematical Models: Mechanical Vibrations, Population Dynamics, and Traffic Flow", 1998)

"In any problem we should compare as much as possible our intuition about what should happen with what the formula predicts. If the two agree, then we expect that our formula gives us the quantitative effects for the given problem - one of the major purposes for using mathematics." (Richard Haberman, "Mathematical Models: Mechanical Vibrations, Population Dynamics, and Traffic Flow", 1998)

"In mathematical models, usually the qualitative effects are at least partially understood. Quantitative results are often unknown. When quantitative results are known (perhaps due to precise experiments), then mathematical models are desirable in order to discover which mechanisms best account for the known data, i.e., which quantities are important and which can be ignored. In complex problems sometimes two or more effects interact. Although each by itself is qualitatively and quantitatively understood, their interaction may need mathematical analysis in order to be understood even qualitatively." (Richard Haberman, "Mathematical Models: Mechanical Vibrations, Population Dynamics, and Traffic Flow", 1998)

"One cannot underestimate the importance of good experiments in developing mathematical models. However, mathematical models are important in their own right, aside from an attempt to mimic nature. This occurs because the real world consists of many interacting processes. It may be impossible in an experiment to entirely eliminate certain undesirable effects. Furthermore one is never sure which effects may be negligible in nature. A mathematical model has an advantage in that we are able to consider only certain effects, the object being to see which effects account for given observations and which effects are immaterial." (Richard Haberman, "Mathematical Models: Mechanical Vibrations, Population Dynamics, and Traffic Flow", 1998)

 "Physical problems cannot be analyzed by mathematics alone. This should be the first fundamental principle of an applied mathematician (although apparently some mathematicians would frequently wish it were not so)." (Richard Haberman, "Mathematical Models: Mechanical Vibrations, Population Dynamics, and Traffic Flow", 1998)

"Science attempts to establish an understanding of all types of phenomena. Many different explanations can sometimes be given that agree qualitatively with experiments or observations. However, when theory and experiment quantitatively agree, then we can usually be more confident in the validity of the theory. In this manner mathematics becomes an integral part of the scientific method." (Richard Haberman, "Mathematical Models: Mechanical Vibrations, Population Dynamics, and Traffic Flow", 1998)

Scientific Experience IV: Models

"Experience teaches that one will be led to new discoveries almost exclusively by means of special mechanical models." (Ludwig Boltzmann, "Lectures on Gas Theory", 1896)

"Tektology must discover what modes of organization are observed in nature and human activities; then generalize and systemize these modes; further it should explain them, that is, elaborate abstract schemes of their tendencies and regularities; finally, based on these schemes it must determine the directions of organizational modes development and elucidate their role in the economy of world processes. This general plan is similar to the plan of any other science but the object studied differs essentially. Tektology deals with the organizational experience not of some particular branch but with that of all of them in the aggregate; to put it in other words, tektology embraces the material of all the other sciences, as well as of all the vital practices from which those sciences arose, but considers this material only in respect of methods, i.e. everywhere it takes an interest in the mode of the organization of this material."  (Alexander Bogdanov, "Tektology: The Universal Organizational Science" Vol. I, 1913)

"Models constitute a framework or a skeleton and the flesh and blood will have to be added by a lot of common sense and knowledge of details."(Jan Tinbergen, "The Use of Models: Experience," 1969)

"The advantages of models are, on one hand, that they force us to present a 'complete' theory by which I mean a theory taking into account all relevant phenomena and relations and, on the other hand, the confrontation with observation, that is, reality." (Jan Tinbergen, "The Use of Models: Experience," 1969)

"Everything we think we know about the world is a model. Every word and every language is a model. All maps and statistics, books and databases, equations and computer programs are models. So are the ways I picture the world in my head - my mental models. None of these is or ever will be the real world. […] Our models usually have a strong congruence with the world. That is why we are such a successful species in the biosphere. Especially complex and sophisticated are the mental models we develop from direct, intimate experience of nature, people, and organizations immediately around us." (Donella Meadows, "Limits to Growth", 1972)

"[...] the scientific models of concrete things are symbolic rather than iconic: they are systems of propositions, not pictures. Besides, such models are seldom if ever completely accurate, if only because they involve more or less brutal simplifications, such as pretending that a metallic surface is smooth, a crystal has no impurities, a biopopulation has a single predator, or a market is in equilibrium.  These are all fictions. However, they are stylizations rather than wild fantasies. Hence, introducing and using them to account for real existents does not commit us to fictionism, just as defending the role of experience need not make us empiricists, nor is admitting the role of intuition enough to qualify as intuitionist." (Mario Bunge, "Chasing Reality: Strife over Realism", 2006)

Qualitative vs Quantitative II: Models

"A model is a qualitative or quantitative representation of a process or endeavor that shows the effects of those factors which are significant for the purposes being considered. A model may be pictorial, descriptive, qualitative, or generally approximate in nature; or it may be mathematical and quantitative in nature and reasonably precise. It is important that effective means for modeling be understood such as analog, stochastic, procedural, scheduling, flow chart, schematic, and block diagrams." (Harold Chestnut, "Systems Engineering Tools", 1965)

"As is used in connection with systems engineering, a model is a qualitative or quantitative representation of a process or endeavor that shows the effects of those factors which are significant for the purposes being considered. Modeling is the process of making a model. Although the model may not represent the actual phenomenon in all respects, it does describe the essential inputs, outputs, and internal characteristics, as well as provide an indication of environmental conditions similar to those of actual equipment." (Harold Chestnut, "Systems Engineering Tools", 1965)

"Modeling, in a general sense, refers to the establishment of a description of a system (a plant, a process, etc.) in mathematical terms, which characterizes the input-output behavior of the underlying system. To describe a physical system […] we have to use a mathematical formula or equation that can represent the system both qualitatively and quantitatively. Such a formulation is a mathematical representation, called a mathematical model, of the physical system." (Guanrong Chen & Trung Tat Pham, "Introduction to Fuzzy Sets, Fuzzy Logic, and Fuzzy Control Systems", 2001)

"Reductionism argues that from scientific theories which explain phenomena on one level, explanations for a higher level can be deduced. Reality and our experience can be reduced to a number of indivisible basic elements. Also qualitative properties are possible to reduce to quantitative ones." (Lars Skyttner, "General Systems Theory: Ideas and Applications", 2001) 

"In order to understand how mathematics is applied to understanding of the real world it is convenient to subdivide it into the following three modes of functioning: model, theory, metaphor. A mathematical model describes a certain range of phenomena qualitatively or quantitatively. […] A (mathematical) metaphor, when it aspires to be a cognitive tool, postulates that some complex range of phenomena might be compared to a mathematical construction." (Yuri I Manin," Mathematics as Metaphor: Selected Essays of Yuri I. Manin" , 2007)

On Models (1900-1929)

"Confronted with the mystery of the Universe, we are driven to ask if the model our minds have framed at all corresponds with the reality; if, indeed, there be any reality behind the image." (Sir William Cecil Dampier, "The Recent Development of Physical Science", 1904)

"The different sciences are not even parts of a whole; they are but different aspects of a whole, which essentially has nothing in it corresponding to the divisions we make; they are, so to speak, sections of our model of Nature in certain arbitrary planes, cut in directions to suit our convenience." (Sir William Cecil Dampier, "The Recent Development of Physical Science", 1904)

"We can only study Nature through our senses – that is […] we can only study the model of Nature that our senses enable our minds to construct; we cannot decide whether that model, consistent though it be, represents truly the real structure of Nature; whether, indeed, there be any Nature as an ultimate reality behind its phenomena." (Sir William C Dampier, "The Recent Development of Physical Science", 1904)

"A symbolical representation of a method of calculation has the same significance for a mathematician as a model or a visualisable working hypothesis has for a physicist. The symbol, the model, the hypothesis runs parallel with the thing to be represented. But the parallelism may extend farther, or be extended farther, than was originally intended on the adoption of the symbol. Since the thing represented and the device representing are after all different, what would be concealed in the one is apparent in the other." (Ernst Mach, "Space and Geometry: In the Light of physiological, phycological and physical inquiry", 1906) 

“We should always aim toward the economy of thought. It is not enough to give models for imitation. It must be possible to pass beyond these models and, in place of repeating their reasoning at length each time, to sum this in a few words.” (Jules H Poincaré, 1909)

"It seems rather futile, if such be the normal history of hypothetical models, to inflict on us the labor of learning abstruse hypotheses which continually revamp old metaphysical terms and merely dress them up in new transcendental symbols. It is a valuable exercise to strip hypotheses of their technical phraseology; to change those words which deceive our minds into believing that a clear idea has been conveyed, when, in fact, they have merely been wrenched from any real significance." (Louis T More," The Limitations of Science", 1915)

"Our model of Nature […] should be like an engine with movable parts. We need not fix the position of any one lever; that is to be adjusted from time to time as the latest observations indicate. The aim of the theorist is to know the train of wheels which the lever sets in motion - that binding of the parts which is the soul of the engine." (Sir Arthur S Eddington, "The Internal Constitution of Stars", Nature Vol. 106 (2603), 1920)

"[…] while the building of Nature is growing spontaneously from within, the model of it, which we seek to construct in our descriptive science, can only be constructed by means of scaffolding from without, a scaffolding of hypotheses. While in the real building all is continuous, in our model there are detached parts which must be connected with the rest by temporary ladders and passages, or which must be supported till we can see how to fill in the understructure. To give the hypotheses equal validity with facts is to confuse the temporary scaffolding with the building itself." (John H Poynting, "Collected Scientific Papers", 1920)

"As we continue the great adventure of scientific exploration our models must often be recast. New laws and postulates will be required, while those that we already have must be broadened, extended and generalized in ways that we are now hardly able to surmise." (Gilbert Newton Lewis, "The Anatomy of Science", 1926)

On Networks (1970-1979)

"Nature is a network of happenings that do not unroll like a red carpet into time, but are intertwined between every part of the world; and we are among those parts. In this nexus, we cannot reach certainty because it is not there to be reached; it goes with the wrong model, and the certain answers ironically are the wrong answers. Certainty is a demand that is made by philosophers who contemplate the world from outside; and scientific knowledge is knowledge for action, not contemplation. There is no God’s eye view of nature, in relativity, or in any science: only a man’s eye view." (Jacob Bronowski, "The Identity of Man", 1972)

"In the province of the mind, what one believes to be true is true or becomes true, within certain limits to be found experientially and experimentally. These limits are further beliefs to be transcended. In the mind, there are no limit. […] In the province of connected minds, what the network believes to be true, either is true or becomes true within certain limits to be found experientially and experimentally. These limits are further beliefs to be transcended. In the network's mind there are no limits." (John C Lilly, "The Human Biocomputer", 1974)

"As with any graphic, networks are used in order to discover pertinent troups of to inform others of the groups and structures discovered. It is a good means of displaying structures, However, it ceases to be a means of discovery when the elements are numerous. The figure rapidly becomes complex, illegible and untransformable." (Jacques Bertin, "Graphics and graphic information processing", 1977)

"An autopoietic system is organized (defined as a unity) as a network of processes of production (transformation and destruction) of components that produces the components that: (a) through their interactions and transformations continuously regenerate and realize the network of processes (relations) that produce them and, (b) constitute it (the machine) as a concrete unity in the space in which they exist by specifying the topological domain of its realization as such a network." (Francisco Varela, "Principles of Biological Autonomy", 1979)

"Information is recorded in vast interconnecting networks. Each idea or image has hundreds, perhaps thousands, of associations and is connected to numerous other points in the mental network." (Peter Russell, "The Brain Book: Know Your Own Mind and How to Use it", 1979)

Herbert Stachowiak - Collected Quotes

"All the model-boundedness of human encounter with the world as well as the interhuman communication is equally involved already in the modeling character of the perception process. […] The modeling character of perception forms is also not changed by the circumstance that the access to the original-side, i.e. to the properties of signal constellations from the external world, it is only always possible via the building of internal models of the external world." (Herbert Stachowiak, "Allgemeine Modelltheorie", 1973)

"Models are models of something, namely, [they are] reflections, representations of natural and artificial originals, that can themselves be models again. […] Models, in general, do not cover all the attributes of the originals they are representing, but only those [attributes] that seem relevant to the actual model creators and/or model users." (Herbert Stachowiak, "Allgemeine Modelltheorie", 1973)

"Models are not assigned per se uniquely to their originals. They perform their replacement function: a) for definite – cognitive and/or handling, model-using – subjects, b) within definite time intervals, c) under restrictions of definite operations of thought or fact. […] Models are not only models of something. They are also models for somebody, a human or an artificial model user. They perform thereby their functions in time, within a time interval. And finally, they are models for a definite purpose." (Herbert Stachowiak, "Allgemeine Modelltheorie", 1973)

"The advantage of this way of proceeding is evident: insights and skills obtained on the model-side can be - certain transference criteria satisfied - transferred to the original, [in this way] the model-builder obtains a new knowledge about the modeled original […]" (Herbert Stachowiak, "Allgemeine Modelltheorie", 1973)

"The model-based concept of cognition takes the representation/reflection idea of the classical theory of cognition, but relativizes it in the sense of the pragmatic decision. Accordingly, all of cognition is cognition in models or by means of models, and in general, any human encounter with the world needs a ‘model’ as the mediator: focusing on – active or passive – comprehension of something, it [cognition] proceeds relative to certain subjects, further selective – intentionally selecting and centering – and depending on the temporal restriction of its relation to the original." (Herbert Stachowiak, "Allgemeine Modelltheorie", 1973)

Mental Models LXIV

"The final truth about phenomena resides in the mathematical description of it; so long as there is no imperfection in this, our knowledge is complete. We go beyond the mathematical formula at our own risk; we may find a [nonmathematical] model or picture that helps us to understand it, but we have no right to expect this, and our failure to find such a model or picture need not indicate that either our reasoning or our knowledge is at fault." (James Jeans, "The Mysterious Universe", 1930)

"People build practical, useful mental models all of the time. Seldom do they resort to writing a complex set of mathematical equations or use other formal methods. Rather, most people build models relating inputs and outputs based on the examples they have seen in their everyday life. These models can be rather trivial, such as knowing that when there are dark clouds in the sky and the wind starts picking up that a storm is probably on the way. Or they can be more complex, like a stock trader who watches plots of leading economic indicators to know when to buy or sell. The ability to make accurate predictions from complex examples involving many variables is a great asset." (Joseph P Bigus,"Data Mining with Neural Networks: Solving business problems from application development to decision support", 1996)

"[A mental model] is a relatively enduring and accessible, but limited, internal conceptual representation of an external system (historical, existing, or projected) [italics in original] whose structure is analogous to the perceived structure of that system." (James K Doyle & David N Ford, "Mental models concepts revisited: Some clarifications and a reply to Lane", System Dynamics Review 15 (4), 1999)

"An internal model corresponds to a specific concrete situation in the external world and allows us to reason about the external situation. To do so you used information about the problem presented in the problem statement. The process of understanding, then, refers to constructing an initial mental representation of what the problem is, based on the information in the problem statement about the goal, the initial state, what you are not allowed to do, and what operator to apply, as well as your own personal past experience." (S Ian Robertson, "Problem Solving", 2001)

"Giving people new mental tools to represent aspects of the world around them meant that they could now externalize and objectify that world. Proceeding in this way they could treat the world as external to themselves and as something to be contemplated within the imagination. The world now became an object to be manipulated within the theater of the mind, rather than an external tangible reality. This also meant that people could gain increasing control over the world around them, yet always at the expense of a loss of direct involvement. The more we objectify the world, the more we are in danger of losing touch with that sense of immediacy felt by active participants in nature." (F David Peat, "From Certainty to Uncertainty", 2002)

"It’s true that to be a great chess player you must have a good memory, but it is much harder to explain what, exactly, we are remembering. Patterns? Numbers? Mental pictures of the board and pieces? The answer seems to be 'all of the above'." (Garry Kasparov, "How Life Imitates Chess", 2007)

"In the classical deterministic scenario, a model consists of a few variables and physical constants. The relational structure of the model is conceptualized by the scientist via intuition gained from thinking about the physical world. Intuition means that the scientist has some mental construct regarding the interactions beyond positing a skeletal mathematical system he believes is sufficiently rich to capture the interactions and then depending upon data to infer the relational structure and estimate a large number of parameters." (Edward R Dougherty, "The Evolution of Scientific Knowledge: From certainty to uncertainty", 2016) 

"Like all models, people’s mental models are an abstraction of reality. They may be complete and correct, or they may have gaps or inconsistencies that are consequential to effective decision making and action. A mental model is usually less complex than the real-world phenomenon involved and tends to lag in context or time and so can easily become out of date. In many cases, people may lack conscious, well-formed mental models on issues that they have not thoroughly considered in the past. This may be challenging for decision-makers as people’s responses may seem unpredictable or irrational." (Matthew D Wood, An Introduction to Mental Modeling, [in "Mental Modeling Approach: Risk Management Application Case Studies"], 2017)

"Mental Modeling enables discovery of people’s mental models in a structured, rigorous, respectful manner. Mental Modeling has been recognized as one of the premier methods for informing the development of strategies and communications that precisely address people’s current thinking, judgment, decision making, and behavior on complex issues , including risk issues. Broadly, Mental Modeling works from the “inside out,” starting with an in-depth understanding of people’s mental models, and then using that insight to develop focused strategies and communication that builds on where people are at in their thinking today, reinforcing what they know about a topic and addressing critical gaps. Broadly stated, the goal is to help people make well-informed decisions and take appropriate actions on the topic at hand." (Matthew D Wood, An Introduction to Mental Modeling, [in "Mental Modeling Approach: Risk Management Application Case Studies"], 2017)

"In signs, one sees an advantage for discovery that is greatest when they express the exact nature of a thing briefly and, as it were, picture it; then indeed, the labor of thought is wonderfully diminished” (Gottfried W Leibniz)