On Coincidence III

"Is it mere coincidence that the universe happens to possess just those properties which allow part of it to be alive? Some people say yes; it was simply good luck that the universe was born with the particular characteristics that it has. Others say no; our universe is only one of many universes." (Ken Croswell, "Planet Quest: The Epic Discovery of Alien Solar Systems", 1997)

"Most systems displaying a high degree of tolerance against failures are a common feature: Their functionality is guaranteed by a highly interconnected complex network. A cell's robustness is hidden in its intricate regulatory and metabolic network; society's resilience is rooted in the interwoven social web; the economy's stability is maintained by a delicate network of financial and regulator organizations; an ecosystem's survivability is encoded in a carefully crafted web of species interactions. It seems that nature strives to achieve robustness through interconnectivity. Such universal choice of a network architecture is perhaps more than mere coincidences." (Albert-László Barabási, "Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means for Business, Science, and Everyday Life", 2002)

"Coincidence surprises us because our intuition about the likelihood of an event is often wildly inaccurate." (Michael Starbird, "Coincidences, Chaos, and All That Math Jazz", 2005)

"With our heads spinning in the world of coincidence and chaos, we nevertheless must make decisions and take steps into the minefield of our future. To avoid explosive missteps, we rely on data and statistical reasoning to inform our thinking." (Michael Starbird, "Coincidences, Chaos, and All That Math Jazz", 2005)

"The human mind delights in finding pattern - so much so that we often mistake coincidence or forced analogy for profound meaning. No other habit of thought lies so deeply within the soul of a small creature trying to make sense of a complex world not constructed for it." (Stephen J Gould, "The Flamingo's Smile: Reflections in Natural History", 2010)

"History is often the tale of small moments - chance encounters or casual decisions or sheer coincidence - that seem of little consequence at the time, but somehow fuse with other small moments to produce something momentous, the proverbial flapping of a butterfly's wings that triggers a hurricane." (Scott Anderson, "Lawrence in Arabia: War, Deceit, Imperial Folly and the Making of the Modern Middle East", 2013)

"In mathematics, two angles that are said to coincide fit together perfectly. The word 'coincidence' does not describe luck or mistakes. It describes that which fits together perfectly." (Wayne Dyer, "The Essential Wayne Dyer Collection", 2013)

"The happy coincidences between life’s requirements and nature’s choices of parameter-values might be just a series of flukes, but one could be forgiven for beginning to suspect that something deeper is at work. That suspicion is the first deep root of anthropic reasoning." (Frank Wilczek, "Multiversality", 2013) 

On Coincidence IV (From Fiction to Science Fiction)

"He is not a true man of science who does not bring some sympathy to his studies, and expect to learn something by behavior as well as by application. It is childish to rest in the discovery of mere coincidences, or of partial and extraneous laws. The study of geometry is a petty and idle exercise of the mind if it is applied to no larger system than the starry one." (Henry D Thoreau, "A Week on the Concord and Merrimack Rivers", 1849)

"There is in life an element of elfin coincidence which people reckoning on the prosaic may perpetually miss. As it has been well expressed in the paradox of Poe, wisdom should reason on the unforeseen." (Gilbert K Chesterton, "The Father Brown omnibus", 1951)

"In a world that operates largely at random, coincidences are to be expected, but any one of them must always be mistrusted." (Rex Stout, "Champagne for One", 1958)

"There is no coincidence. Only the illusion of coincidence." (Alan Moore, "V for Vendetta", 1982)

"Coincidence is the word we use when we can't see the levers and pulleys." (Emma Bull, "Bone Dance: A Fantasy for Technophiles", 1991)

"Coincidence is just the word we use when we have not yet discovered the cause." (Orson Scott Card, "The Call Of Earth", 1992)

"If you stare long enough at anything, you will start to find similarities. The word 'coincidence' exists in order to stop people from seeing meaning where none exists." (Chuck Klosterman, "Eating the Dinosaur", 2009)

"When there are strange things going on all around, every coincidence should be considered very carefully." (Sergei Lukyanenko, "The New Watch", 2013)

On Coincidence I

"It is no great wonder if in long process of time, while fortune takes her course hither and thither, numerous coincidences should spontaneously occur. If the number and variety of subjects to be wrought upon be infinite, it is all the more easy for fortune, with such an abundance of material, to effect this similarity of results." (Plutarch, Life of Sertorius, 1st century BC)

"We have here spoken of the prediction of facts of the same kind as those from which our rule was collected. But the evidence in favour of our induction is of a much higher and more forcible character when it enables us to explain and determine cases of a kind different from those which were contemplated in the formation of our hypothesis. The instances in which this has occurred, indeed, impress us with a conviction that the truth of our hypothesis is certain. No accident could give rise to such an extraordinary coincidence. No false supposition could, after being adjusted to one class of phenomena, so exactly represent a different class, when the agreement was unforeseen and contemplated. That rules springing from remote and unconnected quarters should thus leap to the same point, can only arise from that being where truth resides." (William Whewell, "The Philosophy of the Inductive Sciences" Vol. 2, 1840)

"Coincidences, in general, are great stumbling blocks in the way of that class of thinkers who have been educated to know nothing of the theory of probabilities - that theory to which the most glorious objects of human research are indebted for the most glorious of illustrations." (Edgar A Poe, "The Murders in the Rue Morgue", 1841)

"We produce these representations in and from ourselves with the same necessity with which the spider spins. If we are forced to comprehend all things only under these forms, then it ceases to be amazing that in all things we actually comprehend nothing but these forms. For they must all bear within themselves the laws of number, and it is precisely number which is most astonishing in things. All that conformity to law, which impresses us so much in the movement of the stars and in chemical processes, coincides at bottom with those properties which we bring to things. Thus it is we who impress ourselves in this way." (Friedrich Nietzsche, "On Truth and Lie in an Extra-Moral Sense", 1873)

"Nothing is more certain in scientific method than that approximate coincidence alone can be expected. In the measurement of continuous quantity perfect correspondence must be accidental, and should give rise to suspicion rather than to satisfaction." (William S Jevons, "The Principles of Science: A Treatise on Logic and Scientific Method", 1874)

"Before we can completely explain a phenomenon we require not only to find its true cause, its chief relations to other causes, and all the conditions which determine how the cause operates, and what its effect and amount of effect are, but also all the coincidences." (George Gore, "The Art of Scientific Discovery", 1878)

"As science progress, it becomes more and more difficult to fit in the new facts when they will not fit in spontaneously. The older theories depend upon the coincidences of so many numerical results which can not be attributed to chance. We should not separate what has been joined together." (Henri Poincaré, "The Ether and Matter", 1912)

"By the laws of statistics we could probably approximate just how unlikely it is that it would happen. But people forget - especially those who ought to know better, such as yourself - that while the laws of statistics tell you how unlikely a particular coincidence is, they state just as firmly that coincidences do happen." (Robert A Heinlein, "The Door Into Summer", 1957)

"It seems to me that it would be either a miracle or an unbelievable coincidence if all the major scientific theories […] somehow managed to co-operate with each other so as to conceal time’s arrow from us. There would be neither a miracle nor an unbelievable coincidence in the concealment of time’s arrow from us only if there were nothing to conceal - that is, if time had no arrows." (Henry Mehlberg) 

"Such properties seem to run through the fabric of the natural world like a thread of happy coincidences. But there are so many odd coincidences essential to life that some explanation seems required to account for them." (Sir Fred Hoyle)

On Coincidence II

"People are entirely too disbelieving of coincidence. They are far too ready to dismiss it and to build arcane structures of extremely rickety substance in order to avoid it. I, on the other hand, see coincidence everywhere as an inevitable consequence of the laws of probability, according to which having no unusual coincidence is far more unusual than any coincidence could possibly be." (Isaac Asimov, "The Planet That Wasn't", 1976)

"Our form of life depends, in delicate and subtle ways, on several apparent ‘coincidences’ in the fundamental laws of nature which make the Universe tick. Without those coincidences, we would not be here to puzzle over the problem of their existence […] What does this mean? One possibility is that the Universe we know is a highly improbable accident, ‘just one of those things’." (John R Gribbin, "Genesis: The Origins of Man and the Universe", 1981)

"[…] a mathematician's ultimate concern is that his or her inventions be logical, not realistic. This is not to say, however, that mathematical inventions do not correspond to real things. They do, in most, and possibly all, cases. The coincidence between mathematical ideas and natural reality is so extensive and well documented, in fact, that it requires an explanation. Keep in mind that the coincidence is not the outcome of mathematicians trying to be realistic - quite to the contrary, their ideas are often very abstract and do not initially appear to have any correspondence to the real world. Typically, however, mathematical ideas are eventually successfully applied to describe real phenomena […]"(Michael Guillen, "Bridges to Infinity: The Human Side of Mathematics", 1983)

"Moreover, joint occurrences tend to be better recalled than instances when the effect does not occur. The proneness to remember confirming instances, but to overlook disconfirming ones, further serves to convert, in thought, coincidences into causalities." (Albert Bandura, "Social Foundations of Thought and Action: A social cognitive theory", 1986)

"There is no coherent knowledge, i.e. no uniform comprehensive account of the world and the events in it. There is no comprehensive truth that goes beyond an enumeration of details, but there are many pieces of information, obtained in different ways from different sources and collected for the benefit of the curious. The best way of presenting such knowledge is the list - and the oldest scientific works were indeed lists of facts, parts, coincidences, problems in several specialized domains." (Paul K Feyerabend, "Farewell to Reason", 1987)

"A tendency to drastically underestimate the frequency of coincidences is a prime characteristic of innumerates, who generally accord great significance to correspondences of all sorts while attributing too little significance to quite conclusive but less flashy statistical evidence." (John A Paulos, "Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and its Consequences", 1988)

"The law of truly large numbers states: With a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen." (Frederick Mosteller, "Methods for Studying Coincidences", Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 84, 1989)

"Most coincidences are simply chance events that turn out to be far more probable than many people imagine." (Ivars Peterson, "The Jungles of Randomness: A Mathematical Safari", 1997)

"Often, we use the word random loosely to describe something that is disordered, irregular, patternless, or unpredictable. We link it with chance, probability, luck, and coincidence. However, when we examine what we mean by random in various contexts, ambiguities and uncertainties inevitably arise. Tackling the subtleties of randomness allows us to go to the root of what we can understand of the universe we inhabit and helps us to define the limits of what we can know with certainty." (Ivars Peterson, "The Jungles of Randomness: A Mathematical Safari", 1998)

"Randomness is the very stuff of life, looming large in our everyday experience. […] The fascination of randomness is that it is pervasive, providing the surprising coincidences, bizarre luck, and unexpected twists that color our perception of everyday events." (Edward Beltrami, "What is Random?: Chaos and Order in Mathematics and Life", 1999)