Showing posts with label statisticians. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statisticians. Show all posts

02 October 2024

On Statisticians (2000 -)

"Statistics is, or should be, about scientific investigation and how to do it better, but many statisticians believe it is a branch of mathematics." (George Box, AmStat News 2000)

"We statisticians must accept much of the blame for cavalier attitudes toward Type I errors. When we teach practitioners in other scientific fields that multiplicity is not important, they believe us, and feel free to thrash their data set mercilessly, until it finally screams “uncle” and relinquishes significance. The recent conversion of the term 'data mining' to mean a statistical good rather than a statistical evil also contributes to the problem." (Peter H Westfall, "Applied Statistics in Agriculture", Proceedings of the 13th annual conference), 2001)

"At its core statistics is not about cleverness and technique, but rather about honesty. Its real contribution to society is primarily moral, not technical. It is about doing the right thing when interpreting empirical information. Statisticians are not the world’s best computer scientists, mathematicians, or scientific subject matter specialists. We are (potentially, at least) the best at the principled collection, summarization, and analysis of data." (Stephen B Vardeman & Max D Morris, "Statistics and Ethics: Some Advice for Young Statisticians", The American Statistician vol 57, 2003)

"Today [...] we have high-speed computers and prepackaged statistical routines to perform the necessary calculations [...] statistical software will no more make one a statistician than would a scalpel turn one into a neurosurgeon. Allowing these tools to do our thinking for us is a sure recipe for disaster." (Phillip Good & Hardin James, "Common Errors in Statistics and How to Avoid Them", 2003)

"Things are changing. Statisticians now recognize that computer scientists are making novel contributions while computer scientists now recognize the generality of statistical theory and methodology. Clever data mining algorithms are more scalable than statisticians ever thought possible. Formal statistical theory is more pervasive than computer scientists had realized." (Larry A Wasserman, "All of Statistics: A concise course in statistical inference", 2004

"Statistics - A subject which most statisticians find difficult but which many physicians are experts on." (Stephen Senn, "Statistical Issues in Drug Development" 2nd Ed, 2007)

"[...] statisticians are constantly looking out for missed nuances: a statistical average for all groups may well hide vital differences that exist between these groups. Ignoring group differences when they are present frequently portends inequitable treatment." (Kaiser Fung, "Numbers Rule the World", 2010)

"What is so unconventional about the statistical way of thinking? First, statisticians do not care much for the popular concept of the statistical average; instead, they fixate on any deviation from the average. They worry about how large these variations are, how frequently they occur, and why they exist. [...] Second, variability does not need to be explained by reasonable causes, despite our natural desire for a rational explanation of everything; statisticians are frequently just as happy to pore over patterns of correlation. [...] Third, statisticians are constantly looking out for missed nuances: a statistical average for all groups may well hide vital differences that exist between these groups. Ignoring group differences when they are present frequently portends inequitable treatment. [...] Fourth, decisions based on statistics can be calibrated to strike a balance between two types of errors. Predictably, decision makers have an incentive to focus exclusively on minimizing any mistake that could bring about public humiliation, but statisticians point out that because of this bias, their decisions will aggravate other errors, which are unnoticed but serious. [...] Finally, statisticians follow a specific protocol known as statistical testing when deciding whether the evidence fits the crime, so to speak. Unlike some of us, they don’t believe in miracles. In other words, if the most unusual coincidence must be contrived to explain the inexplicable, they prefer leaving the crime unsolved." (Kaiser Fung, "Numbers Rule the World", 2010)

"The p-value is a concept so misaligned with intuition that no civilian can hold it firmly in mind. Nor can many statisticians." (Matt Briggs, "Why do statisticians answer silly questions that no one ever asks?", Significance Vol. 9(1), 2012)

"Diagrams furnish only approximate information. They do not add anything to the meaning of the data and, therefore, are not of much use to a statistician or research worker for further mathematical treatment or statistical analysis. On the other hand, graphs are more obvious, precise and accurate than the diagrams and are quite helpful to the statistician for the study of slopes, rates of change and estimation, (interpolation and extrapolation), wherever possible." (S C Gupta & Indra Gupta, "Business Statistics", 2013)

"Good design is an important part of any visualization, while decoration (or chart-junk) is best omitted. Statisticians should also be careful about comparing themselves to artists and designers; our goals are so different that we will fare poorly in comparison." (Hadley Wickham, "Graphical Criticism: Some Historical Notes", Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics Vol. 22(1), 2013) 

"Missing data is the blind spot of statisticians. If they are not paying full attention, they lose track of these little details. Even when they notice, many unwittingly sway things our way. Most ranking systems ignore missing values." (Kaiser Fung, "Numbersense: How To Use Big Data To Your Advantage", 2013)

"Statisticians set a high bar when they assign a cause to an effect. [...] A model that ignores cause–effect relationships cannot attain the status of a model in the physical sciences. This is a structural limitation that no amount of data - not even Big Data - can surmount." (Kaiser Fung, "Numbersense: How To Use Big Data To Your Advantage", 2013)

"When statisticians, trained in math and probability theory, try to assess likely outcomes, they demand a plethora of data points. Even then, they recognize that unless it’s a very simple and controlled action such as flipping a coin, unforeseen variables can exert significant influence." (Zachary Karabell, "The Leading Indicators: A short history of the numbers that rule our world", 2014)

"Optimization is more than finding the best simulation results. It is itself a complex and evolving field that, subject to certain information constraints, allows data scientists, statisticians, engineers, and traders alike to perform reality checks on modeling results." (Chris Conlan, "Automated Trading with R: Quantitative Research and Platform Development", 2016)

"The tricky part is that there aren’t really any hard- and- fast rules when it comes to identifying outliers. Some economists say an outlier is anything that’s a certain distance away from the mean, but in practice it’s fairly subjective and open to interpretation. That’s why statisticians spend so much time looking at data on a case-by-case basis to determine what is - and isn’t - an outlier." (John H Johnson & Mike Gluck, "Everydata: The misinformation hidden in the little data you consume every day", 2016)

"The job of the statistician is to formulate an inventory of all those things that matter in order to obtain a representative sample. Researchers have to avoid the tendency to capture variables that are easy to identify or collect data on - sometimes the things that matter are not obvious or are difficult to measure." (Daniel J Levitin, "Weaponized Lies", 2017)

"To be any good, a sample has to be representative. A sample is representative if every person or thing in the group you’re studying has an equally likely chance of being chosen. If not, your sample is biased. […] The job of the statistician is to formulate an inventory of all those things that matter in order to obtain a representative sample. Researchers have to avoid the tendency to capture variables that are easy to identify or collect data on - sometimes the things that matter are not obvious or are difficult to measure." (Daniel J Levitin, "Weaponized Lies", 2017)

"Some scientists (e.g., econometricians) like to work with mathematical equations; others (e.g., hard-core statisticians) prefer a list of assumptions that ostensibly summarizes the structure of the diagram. Regardless of language, the model should depict, however qualitatively, the process that generates the data - in other words, the cause-effect forces that operate in the environment and shape the data generated." (Judea Pearl & Dana Mackenzie, "The Book of Why: The new science of cause and effect", 2018)

"Statisticians are sometimes dismissed as bean counters. The sneering term is misleading as well as unfair. Most of the concepts that matter in policy are not like beans; they are not merely difficult to count, but difficult to define. Once you’re sure what you mean by 'bean', the bean counting itself may come more easily. But if we don’t understand the definition, then there is little point in looking at the numbers. We have fooled ourselves before we have begun."(Tim Harford, "The Data Detective: Ten easy rules to make sense of statistics", 2020)

31 October 2023

Phillip I Good - Collected Quotes

 "A major problem with many studies is that the population of interest is not adequately defined before the sample is drawn. Don’t make this mistake. A second major source of error is that the sample proves to have been drawn from a different population than was originally envisioned." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"A permutation test based on the original observations is appropriate only if one can assume that under the null hypothesis the observations are identically distributed in each of the populations from which the samples are drawn. If we cannot make this assumption, we will need to transform the observations, throwing away some of the information about them so that the distributions of the transformed observations are identical." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"A well-formulated hypothesis will be both quantifiable and testable - that is, involve measurable quantities or refer to items that may be assigned to mutually exclusive categories. [...] When the objective of our investigations is to arrive at some sort of conclusion, then we need to have not only a hypothesis in mind, but also one or more potential alternative hypotheses." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"Before we initiate data collection, we must have a firm idea of what we will measure. A second fundamental principle is also applicable to both experiments and surveys: Collect exact values whenever possible. Worry about grouping them in interval or discrete categories later. […] You can always group your results (and modify your groupings) after a study is completed. If after-the-fact grouping is a possibility, your design should state how the grouping will be determined; otherwise there will be the suspicion that you chose the grouping to obtain desired results." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"Estimation methods should be impartial. Decisions should not depend on the accidental and quite irrelevant labeling of the samples. Nor should decisions depend on the units in which the measurements are made." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"Every statistical procedure relies on certain assumptions for correctness. Errors in testing hypotheses come about either because the assumptions underlying the chosen test are not satisfied or because the chosen test is less powerful than other competing procedures."(Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"[…] finding at least one cluster of events in time or in space has a greater probability than finding no clusters at all (equally spaced events)." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"Graphical illustrations should be simple and pleasing to the eye, but the presentation must remain scientific. In other words, we want to avoid those graphical features that are purely decorative while keeping a critical eye open for opportunities to enhance the scientific inference we expect from the reader. A good graphical design should maximize the proportion of the ink used for communicating scientific information in the overall display." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"If the sample is not representative of the population because the sample is small or biased, not selected at random, or its constituents are not independent of one another, then the bootstrap will fail. […] For a given size sample, bootstrap estimates of percentiles in the tails will always be less accurate than estimates of more centrally located percentiles. Similarly, bootstrap interval estimates for the variance of a distribution will always be less accurate than estimates of central location such as the mean or median because the variance depends strongly upon extreme values in the population." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"More important than comparing the means of populations can be determining why the variances are different." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"Most statistical procedures rely on two fundamental assumptions: that the observations are independent of one another and that they are identically distributed. If your methods of collection fail to honor these assumptions, then your analysis must fail also." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"Never assign probabilities to the true state of nature, but only to the validity of your own predictions." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"The greatest error associated with the use of statistical procedures is to make the assumption that one single statistical methodology can suffice for all applications. […] But one methodology can never be better than another, nor can estimation replace hypothesis testing or vice versa. Every methodology has a proper domain of application and another set of applications for which it fails. Every methodology has its drawbacks and its advantages, its assumptions, and its sources of error." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"The sources of error in applying statistical procedures are legion and include all of the following: (•) Using the same set of data both to formulate hypotheses and to test them. (•) Taking samples from the wrong population or failing to specify the population(s) about which inferences are to be made in advance. (•) Failing to draw random, representative samples. (•) Measuring the wrong variables or failing to measure what you’d hoped to measure. (•) Using inappropriate or inefficient statistical methods. (•) Failing to validate models. But perhaps the most serious source of error lies in letting statistical procedures make decisions for you." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"The vast majority of errors in estimation stem from a failure to measure what one wanted to measure or what one thought one was measuring. Misleading definitions, inaccurate measurements, errors in recording and transcription, and confounding variables plague results. To forestall such errors, review your data collection protocols and procedure manuals before you begin, run several preliminary trials, record potential confounding variables, monitor data collection, and review the data as they are collected." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"The vast majority of errors in Statistics - and not incidentally, in most human endeavors - arise from a reluctance (or even an inability) to plan. Some demon (or demonic manager) seems to be urging us to cross the street before we’ve had the opportunity to look both ways. Even on those rare occasions when we do design an experiment, we seem more obsessed with the mechanics than with the concepts that underlie it." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"Use statistics as a guide to decision making rather than a mandate." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"When we assert that for a given population a percentage of samples will have a specific composition, this also is a deduction. But when we make an inductive generalization about a population based upon our analysis of a sample, we are on shakier ground. It is one thing to assert that if an observation comes from a normal distribution with mean zero, the probability is one-half that it is positive. It is quite another if, on observing that half the observations in the sample are positive, we assert that half of all the possible observations that might be drawn from that population will be positive also." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

"While a null hypothesis can facilitate statistical inquiry - an exact permutation test is impossible without it - it is never mandated. In any event, virtually any quantifiable hypothesis can be converted into null form. There is no excuse and no need to be content with a meaningless null. […] We must specify our alternatives before we commence an analysis, preferably at the same time we design our study." (Phillip I Good & James W Hardin, "Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)", 2003)

Robert Hooke - Collected Quotes

"Accounting figures are a blend of facts and arbitrary procedures that are designed to facilitate the recording and communication of business transactions. Their usefulness in the decision process is sometimes grossly overestimated." (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

"All of us learn by experience. Except for pure deductive processes, everything we learn is from someone's experience. All experience is a sample from an immense range of possible experience that no one individual can ever take in. It behooves us to know what parts of the information we get from samples can be trusted and what cannot." (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

"Being experimental, however, doesn't necessarily make a scientific study entirely credible. One weakness of experimental work is that it can be out of touch with reality when its controls are so rigid that conclusions are valid only in the experimental situation and don't carryover into the real world." (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

"Correlation analysis is a useful tool for uncovering a tenuous relationship, but it doesn't necessarily provide any real understanding of the relationship, and it certainly doesn't provide any evidence that the relationship is one of cause and effect. People who don't understand correlation tend to credit it with being a more fundamental approach than it is." (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

"Experiments usually are looking for 'signals' of truth, and the search is always ham pered by 'noise' of one kind or another. In judging someone else's experimental results it's important to find out whether they represent a true signal or whether they are just so much noise." (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

 "First and foremost an experiment should have a goal, and the goal should be something worth achieving, especially if the experimenter is working on someone else's (for example, the taxpayers') money. 'Worth achieving' implies more than just beneficial; it also should mean that the experiment is the most beneficial thing we can think of doing. Obviously we can't predict accurately the value of an experiment (this may not even be possible after we see how it turns out), but we should feel obliged to make as intelligent a choice as we can. Such a choice is sometimes labeled a 'value judgment'." (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

"In general a small-scale test or experiment will not detect a small effect, or small differences among various products." (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

"Mistakes arising from retrospective data analysis led to the idea of experimentation, and experience with experimentation led to the idea of controlled experiments and then to the proper design of experiments for efficiency and credibility. When someone is pushing a conclusion at you, it's a good idea to ask where it came from - was there an experiment, and if so, was it controlled and was it relevant?" (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

"One important way of developing our powers of discrimination between good and bad statistical studies is to learn about the differences between backward-looking (retrospective or historical) data and data obtained through carefully planned and controlled (forward-looking) experiments." (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

"Only a 0 correlation is uninteresting, and in practice 0 correlations do not occur. When you stuff a bunch of numbers into the correlation formula, the chance of getting exactly 0, even if no correlation is truly present, is about the same as the chance of a tossed coin ending up on edge instead of heads or tails.(Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

"Randomization is usually a cheap and harmless way of improving the effectiveness of experimentation with very little extra effort." (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

"Science usually amounts to a lot more than blind trial and error. Good statistics consists of much more than just significance tests; there are more sophisticated tools available for the analysis of results, such as confidence statements, multiple comparisons, and Bayesian analysis, to drop a few names. However, not all scientists are good statisticians, or want to be, and not all people who are called scientists by the media deserve to be so described." (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

"Statistical reasoning is such a fundamental part of experimental science that the study of principles of data analysis has become a vital part of the scientist's education. Furthermore, […] the existence of a lot of data does not necessarily mean that any useful information is there ready to be extracted." (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

"The idea of statistical significance is valuable because it often keeps us from announcing results that later turn out to be nonresults. A significant result tells us that enough cases were observed to provide reasonable assurance of a real effect. It does not necessarily mean, though, that the effect is big enough to be important." (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

"Today's scientific investigations are so complicated that even experts in related fields may not understand them well. But there is a logic in the planning of experiments and in the analysis of their results that all intelligent people can grasp, and this logic is a great help in determining when to believe what we hear and read and when to be skeptical. This logic has a great deal to do with statistics, which is why statisticians have a unique interest in the scientific method, and why some knowledge of statistics can so often be brought to bear in distinguishing good arguments from bad ones." (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

"When a real situation involves chance we have to use probability mathematics to understand it quantitatively. Direct mathematical solutions sometimes exist […] but most real systems are too complicated for direct solutions. In these cases the computer, once taught to generate random numbers, can use simulation to get useful answers to otherwise impossible problems." (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

30 January 2022

On Statisticians (1975 - 1999)

"Competent statisticians will be front line troops in our war for survival-but how do we get them? I think there is now a wide readiness to agree that what we want are neither mere theorem provers nor mere users of a cookbook. A proper balance of theory and practice is needed and, most important, statisticians must learn how to be good scientists; a talent which has to be acquired by experience and example." (George E P Box, "Science and Statistics", Journal of the American Statistical Association 71, 1976)

"When the statistician looks at the outside world, he cannot, for example, rely on finding errors that are independently and identically distributed in approximately normal distributions. In particular, most economic and business data are collected serially and can be expected, therefore, to be heavily serially dependent. So is much of the data collected from the automatic instruments which are becoming so common in laboratories these days. Analysis of such data, using procedures such as standard regression analysis which assume independence, can lead to gross error. Furthermore, the possibility of contamination of the error distribution by outliers is always present and has recently received much attention. More generally, real data sets, especially if they are long, usually show inhomogeneity in the mean, the variance, or both, and it is not always possible to randomize." (George E P Box, "Some Problems of Statistics and Everyday Life", Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74 (365), 1979)

"Science usually amounts to a lot more than blind trial and error. Good statistics consists of much more than just significance tests; there are more sophisticated tools available for the analysis of results, such as confidence statements, multiple comparisons, and Bayesian analysis, to drop a few names. However, not all scientists are good statisticians, or want to be, and not all people who are called scientists by the media deserve to be so described." (Robert Hooke, "How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians", 1983)

"Another reason for the applied statistician to care about Bayesian inference is that consumers of statistical answers, at least interval estimates, commonly interpret them as probability statements about the possible values of parameters. Consequently, the answers statisticians provide to consumers should be capable of being interpreted as approximate Bayesian statements." (Donald B Rubin, "Bayesianly justifiable and relevant frequency calculations for the applied statistician", Annals of Statistics 12(4), 1984)

"Stepwise regression is probably the most abused computerized statistical technique ever devised. If you think you need stepwise regression to solve a particular problem you have, it is almost certain that you do not. Professional statisticians rarely use automated stepwise regression." (Leland Wilkinson, "SYSTAT", 1984)

"The result is that non-statisticians tend to place undue reliance on single ‘cookbook’ techniques, and it has for example become impossible to get results published in some medical, psychological and biological journals without reporting significance values even if of doubtful validity. It is sad that students may actually be more confused and less numerate at the end of a ‘service course’ than they were at the beginning, and more likely to overlook a descriptive approach in favor of some inferential method which may be inappropriate or incorrectly executed." (Christopher Chatfield, "The initial examination of data", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 14, 1985)

"Too much of what all statisticians do [...] is blatantly subjective for any of us to kid ourselves or the users of our technology into believing that we have operated ‘impartially’ in any true sense. [...] We can do what seems to us most appropriate, but we can not be objective and would do well to avoid language that hints to the contrary." (Steve V Vardeman, Comment, Journal of the American Statistical Association 82, 1987)

"[In statistics] you have the fact that the concepts are not very clean. The idea of probability, of randomness, is not a clean mathematical idea. You cannot produce random numbers mathematically. They can only be produced by things like tossing dice or spinning a roulette wheel. With a formula, any formula, the number you get would be predictable and therefore not random. So as a statistician you have to rely on some conception of a world where things happen in some way at random, a conception which mathematicians don’t have." (Lucien LeCam, [interview] 1988)

"It is clear that a statistician who is involved at the start of an investigation, advises on data collection, and who knows the background and objectives, will generally make a better job of the analysis than a statistician who was called in later on." (Christopher Chatfield, "Problem solving: a statistician’s guide", 1988)

"The statistician should not always remain in his or her own office: not only is relevant information more likely to be on hand in the experimenter’s department, but in the longer term the statistician stands to gain immeasurably in understanding of agricultural problems by often visiting other departments and their laboratories and fields." (David J Finney, "Was this in your statistics textbook?", Experimental Agriculture 24, 1988)

"A little thought reveals a fact widely understood among statisticians: The null hypothesis, taken literally (and that’s the only way you can take it in formal hypothesis testing), is always false in the real world. [...] If it is false, even to a tiny degree, it must be the case that a large enough sample will produce a significant result and lead to its rejection. So if the null hypothesis is always false, what’s the big deal about rejecting it?" (Jacob Cohen, "Things I Have Learned (So Far)", American Psychologist, 1990)

"Statisticians classically asked the wrong question–and were willing to answer with a lie, one that was often a downright lie. They asked 'Are the effects of A and B different?' and they were willing to answer “no”. All we know about the world teaches us that the effects of A and B are always different–in some decimal place–for every A and B. Thus asking 'Are the effects different?' is foolish. What we should be answering first is 'Can we tell the direction in which the effects of A differ from the effects of B?' In other words, can we be confident about the direction from A to B? Is it 'up', 'down' or 'uncertain'?" (John W Tukey, "The Philosophy of Multiple Comparisons", Statistical Science 6, 1991)

"Statistics is a very powerful and persuasive mathematical tool. People put a lot of faith in printed numbers. It seems when a situation is described by assigning it a numerical value, the validity of the report increases in the mind of the viewer. It is the statistician's obligation to be aware that data in the eyes of the uninformed or poor data in the eyes of the naive viewer can be as deceptive as any falsehoods." (Theoni Pappas, "More Joy of Mathematics: Exploring mathematical insights & concepts", 1991)

"A careful and sophisticated analysis of the data is often quite useless if the statistician cannot communicate the essential features of the data to a client for whom statistics is an entirely foreign language." (Christopher J Wild, "Embracing the ‘Wider view’ of Statistics", The American Statistician 48, 1994)

"We have to teach non-statisticians to recognize where statistical expertise is required. No one else will. We teach students how to solve simple statistical problems, but how often do we make any serious effort to teach them to recognize situations that call for statistical expertise that is beyond the technical content of the course." (Christopher J Wild, "Embracing the ‘Wider view’ of Statistics", The American Statistician 48, 1994)

"Because no one becomes statistically self-sufficient after one semester of study, I try to prepare students to become intelligent consumers of the assistance that they will inevitably seek. Service courses train future clients, not future statisticians." (Michael W Tosset, "Statistical Science", 1998)

"There are aspects of statistics other than it being intellectually difficult that are barriers to learning. For one thing, statistics does not benefit from a glamorous image that motivates students to persist through tedious and frustrating lessons[...]there are no TV dramas with a good-looking statistician playing the lead, and few mothers’ chests swell with pride as they introduce their son or daughter as 'the statistician'." (Chap T Le & James R Boen, "Health and Numbers: Basic Statistical Methods", 1995)

"When an analyst selects the wrong tool, this is a misuse which usually leads to invalid conclusions. Incorrect use of even a tool as simple as the mean can lead to serious misuses. […] But all statisticians know that more complex tools do not guarantee an analysis free of misuses. Vigilance is required on every statistical level."  (Herbert F Spirer et al, "Misused Statistics" 2nd Ed, 1998)

12 September 2021

On Statisticians (1950 - 1974)

"The statistician who supposes that his main contribution to the planning of an experiment will involve statistical theory, finds repeatedly that he makes his most valuable contribution simply by persuading the investigator to explain why he wishes to do the experiment, by persuading him to justify the experimental treatments, and to explain why it is that the experiment, when completed, will assist him in his research." (Gertrude Cox, [lecture] 1951)

"When an engineer apologetically approaches a statistician, graph in hand, and asks how he should fit a straight line to these points, the situation is not unlike the moment when one’s daughter inquires where babies come from. There is a need for tact, there is a need for delicacy, but here is opportunity for enlightenment and it must not be discarded casually - or destroyed with the glib answer." (Forman S Acton,  National Bureau of Standards Report, 1951)

"The fact is that, despite its mathematical base, statistics is as much an art as it is a science. A great many manipulations and even distortions are possible within the bounds of propriety. Often the statistician must choose among methods, a subjective process, and find the one that he will use to represent the facts." (Darell Huff, "How to Lie with Statistics", 1954)

"For that theory [mathematical theory of statistics] is solely concerned with working out the properties of the theoretical models, whereas what matters - and what in one sense is most difficult - is to decide what theoretical model best corresponds to the real world-situation to which statistical methods must be applied. There is a great danger that mathematical pupils will imagine that a knowledge of mathematical statistics alone makes a statistician." (David G Champemowne, "A Discussion on the Teaching of Mathematical Statistics at the University Level", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Vol. 118, 1955)

"It is very easy to devise different tests which, on the average, have similar properties, [...] hey behave satisfactorily when the null hypothesis is true and have approximately the same power of detecting departures from that hypothesis. Two such tests may, however, give very different results when applied to a given set of data. The situation leads to a good deal of contention amongst statisticians and much discredit of the science of statistics. The appalling position can easily arise in which one can get any answer one wants if only one goes around to a large enough number of statisticians." (Frances Yates, "Discussion on the Paper by Dr. Box and Dr. Andersen", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B Vol. 17, 1955)

"The mathematician, the statistician, and the philosopher do different things with a theory of probability. The mathematician develops its formal consequences, the statistician applies the work of the mathematician and the philosopher describes in general terms what this application consists in. The mathematician develops symbolic tools without worrying overmuch what the tools are for; the statistician uses them; the philosopher talks about them. Each does his job better if he knows something about the work of the other two." (Irving J Good, "Kinds of Probability", Science Vol. 129 (3347),  1959)

"The statistician has no use for information that cannot be expressed numerically, nor generally speaking, is he interested in isolated events or examples. The term ' data ' is itself plural and the statistician is concerned with the analysis of aggregates." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"There are good statistics and bad statistics; it may be doubted if there are many perfect data which are of any practical value. It is the statistician's function to discriminate between good and bad data; to decide when an informed estimate is justified and when it is not; to extract the maximum reliable information from limited and possibly biased data." (Alfred R Ilersic, "Statistics", 1959)

"Years ago a statistician might have claimed that statistics deals with the processing of data [...]today’s statistician will be more likely to say that statistics is concerned with decision making in the face of uncertainty." (Herman Chernoff & Lincoln E Moses, "Elementary Decision Theory", 1959)

"One feature [...] which requires much more justification than is usually given, is the setting up of unplausible null hypotheses. For example, a statistician may set out a test to see whether two drugs have exactly the same effect, or whether a regression line is exactly straight. These hypotheses can scarcely be taken literally." (Cedric A B Smith, "Book review of Norman T. J. Bailey: Statistical Methods in Biology", Applied Statistics 9, 1960)

"Predictions, prophecies, and perhaps even guidance - those who suggested this title to me must have hoped for such-even though occasional indulgences in such actions by statisticians has undoubtedly contributed to the characterization of a statistician as a man who draws straight lines from insufficient data to foregone conclusions!" (John W Tukey, "Where do We Go From Here?", Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 55 (289), 1960)

"A random sequence is a vague notion embodying the idea of a sequence in which each term is unpredictable to the uninitiated and whose digits pass a certain number of tests traditional with statisticians and depending somewhat on the uses to which the sequence is to be put." (Derrick H Lehmer, 1951)

"[...] 'statistics are only for the statistician',  and even then, I might add, only for the good statistician." (Ely Devons, "Essays in Economics", 1961) 

"[Statistics] is concerned with things we can count. In so far as things, persons, are unique or ill-defined, statistics are meaningless and statisticians silenced; in so far as things are similar and definite - so many workers over 25, so many nuts and bolts made during December - they can be counted and new statistical facts are born." (Maurice S Bartlett, "Essays on Probability and Statistics", 1962)

"The most important maxim for data analysis to heed, and one which many statisticians seem to have shunned is this: ‘Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than an exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise.’ Data analysis must progress by approximate answers, at best, since its knowledge of what the problem really is will at best be approximate." (John W Tukey, "The Future of Data Analysis", Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 33, No. 1, 1962)

"Mathematical statistics provides an exceptionally clear example of the relationship between mathematics and the external world. The external world provides the experimentally measured distribution curve; mathematics provides the equation (the mathematical model) that corresponds to the empirical curve. The statistician may be guided by a thought experiment in finding the corresponding equation." (Marshall J Walker, "The Nature of Scientific Thought", 1963)

"Evaluation of the statistical reliability of a set of results is not mere calculation of standard errors and confidence limits. The statistician must go far beyond the statistical methods in textbooks. He must evaluate uncertainty in terms of possible uses of the data. Some of this writing is not statistical but draws on assistance from the expert in the subject-matter." (W Edwards Deming, "Principles of Professional Statistical Practice", Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 36(6), 1965)

"The statistician has no magic touch by which he may come in at the stage of tabulation and make something of nothing. Neither will his advice, however wise in the early stages of a study, ensure successful execution and conclusion. Many a study, launched on the ways of elegant statistical design, later boggled in execution, ends up with results to which the theory of probability can contribute little." (W Edwards Deming, "Principles of Professional Statistical Practice", Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 36(6), 1965)

"The statistician cannot excuse himself from the duty of getting his head clear on the principles of scientific inference, but equally no other thinking man can avoid a like obligation." (Sir Ronald A Fisher, "The Design of Experiments", 1971)

On Statisticians (1925 - 1949)

"Behind the adventurer, the speculator, comes that scavenger of adventurers, the statistician. […] The movement of the last hundred years is all in favor of the statistician." (Herbert G Wells, "The Work, Wealth and Happiness of Mankind", 1931)

"Most of us have some idea of what the word statistics means. We should probably say that it has something to do with tables of figures, diagrams and graphs in economic and scientific publications, with the cost of living [...]  and with a host of other seemingly unrelated matters of concern or unconcern [...] Our answer would be on the right lines. Nor should we be unduly upset if, to start with, we seem a little vague. Statisticians themselves disagree about the definition of the word: over a hundred definitions have been listed." (Walter F  Willcox, "An Improved Method of Measuring Public Health in the United States", Revue de l’lnstitut InternutionuIe de Stutistique  vol. 3 (1), 1935)

"The statistician cannot evade the responsibility for understanding the process he applies or recommends." (Ronald A Fisher, "The Design of Experiments", 1935) 

"To consult the statistician after an experiment is finished is often merely to ask him to conduct a post mortem examination. He can perhaps say what the experiment died of." (Sir Ronald A Fisher, [presidential address] 1938)

"An inference, if it is to have scientific value, must constitute a prediction concerning future data. If the inference is to be made purely with the help of the distribution theory of statistics, the experiments that constitute evidence for the inference must arise from a state of statistical control; until that state is reached, there is no universe, normal or otherwise, and the statistician’s calculations by themselves are an illusion if not a delusion. The fact is that when distribution theory is not applicable for lack of control, any inference, statistical or otherwise, is little better than a conjecture. The state of statistical control is therefore the goal of all experimentation." (William E Deming, "Statistical Method from the Viewpoint of Quality Control", 1939)

"The first act of a scientific statistician is to assess the trustworthiness of his data, to criticize his sources. [...] The statisticians are thinking of scientific method, the literary critics of verbal arrangement." (Major Greenwood, "Medical Statistics from Graunt to Farr", Biometrika Vol. 32 (3/4), 1942)

"[Statistics] is both a science and an art. It is a science in that its methods are basically systematic and have general application; and an art in that their successful application depends to a considerable degree on the skill and special experience of the statistician, and on his knowledge of the field of application, e.g. economics." (Leonard H C Tippett, "Statistics", 1943)

"Errors of the third kind happen in conventional tests of differences of means, but they are usually not considered, although their existence is probably recognized. It seems to the author that there may be several reasons for this among which are 1) a preoccupation on the part of mathematical statisticians with the formal questions of acceptance and rejection of null hypotheses without adequate consideration of the implications of the error of the third kind for the practical experimenter, 2) the rarity with which an error of the third kind arises in the usual tests of significance." (Frederick Mosteller, "A k-Sample Slippage Test for an Extreme Population", The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 19, 1948)

"Everyday life is influenced more and more each day by decisions based on quantitative information. The scientific sequence - hypothesis, experiment, and test hypothesis - is now a familiar approach to problems. Only a few of all those who use it are known popularly as scientists. The distinguishing characteristic of the true scientist is not the fact that he employs scientific methodology, but rather his expertness with it. So it is with the statistician. Nearly everyone, scientists included, draws conclusions from quantitative data. A mark of the true statistician is his special expertness at arranging an investigation and analyzing the result so as to yield the most reliable conclusions with minimum effect." (The Editors, "The Statistician and Everyday Affairs",  The American Statistician Vol. 11 (5),1948)

"The characteristic which distinguishes the present-day professional statistician, is his interest and skill in the measurement of the fallibility of conclusions." (George W Snedecor, "On a Unique Feature of Statistics", [address] 1948)

"[...] to be a good theoretical statistician one must also compute, and must therefore have the best computing aids." (Frank Yates, "Sampling Methods for Censuses and Surveys", 1949) 

On Statisticians (- 1924)

"Again I must repeat my objections to intermingling causation with statistics. It might be to a certain extent admissible if you had no sanitary head. But you have one, & his report should be quite separate. The statistician has nothing to do with causation: he is almost certain in the present state of knowledge to err." (Florence Nightingale, [letter] 1861) 

"It is difficult to understand why statisticians commonly limit their inquiries to Averages, and do not revel in more comprehensive views. Their souls seem as dull to the charm of variety as that of the native of one of our flat English counties, whose retrospect of Switzerland was that, if its mountains could be thrown into its lakes, two nuisances would be got rid of at once. An Average is but a solitary fact, whereas if a single other fact be added to it, an entire Normal Scheme, which nearly corresponds to the observed one, starts potentially into existence." (Sir Francis Galton, "Natural Inheritance", 1889)

"It is now beginning to be generally understood, even by merely practical statisticians, that there is truth in the theory that all variability is much the same kind." (Francis Galton, "Kinship and Correlation", North American Review Vol. 150 (11), 1890)

"When a law is contained in figures, it is buried like metal in an ore; it is necessary to extract it. This is the work of graphical representation. It points out the coincidences, the relationships between phenomena, their anomalies, and we have seen what a powerful means of control it puts in the hands of the statistician to verify new data, discover and correct errors with which they have been stained." (Emile Cheysson, "Les methods de la statistique", 1890)

"Since the statistician can seldom or never make experiments for himself, he has to accept the data of daily experiences, and discuss as best he can the relations of a whole group of changes [...]" (George U Yule,  "On the Theory of Correlation for any Number of Variables", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol. LX,  1897 )

"Even trained statisticians often fail to appreciate the extent to which statistics are vitiated by the unrecorded assumptions of their interpreters." (George B Shaw, "The Doctor's Dilemma", 1906)

"Figures may not lie, but statistics compiled unscientifically and analyzed incompetently are almost sure to be misleading, and when this condition is unnecessarily chronic the so-called statisticians may be called liars." (Edwin B Wilson, "Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society", Vol 18, 1912)

"The postulate of randomness thus resolves itself into the question, ‘of what population is this a random sample?’ which must frequently be asked by every practical statistician." (Ronald  A Fisher, "On the Mathematical Foundation of Theoretical Statistics", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Vol. A222, 1922) 

"The conception of statistics as the study of variation is the natural outcome of viewing the subject as the study of populations; for a population of individuals in all respects identical is completely described by a description of anyone individual, together with the number in the group. The populations which are the object of statistical study always display variations in one or more respects. To speak of statistics as the study of variation also serves to emphasise the contrast between the aims of modern statisticians and those of their predecessors." (Sir Ronald A Fisher, "Statistical Methods for Research Workers", 1925)

"The statistician’s job is to draw general conclusions from fragmentary data. Too often the data supplied to him for analysis are not only fragmentary but positively incoherent, so that he can do next to nothing with them. Even the most kindly statistician swears heartily under his breath whenever this happens". (Michael J Moroney, "Facts from Figures", 1927)

"The postulate of randomness thus resolves itself into the question, 'of what population is this a random sample?' which must frequently be asked by every practical statistician." (Ronald Fisher, "On the Mathematical Foundation of Theoretical Statistics", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Vol. A222, 1922)

25 February 2020

On Statistics: Statistical Fallacies II

"A witty statesman said, you might prove anything by figures." (Thomas Carlyle, Chartism, 1840)

“Some of the common ways of producing a false statistical argument are to quote figures without their context, omitting the cautions as to their incompleteness, or to apply them to a group of phenomena quite different to that to which they in reality relate; to take these estimates referring to only part of a group as complete; to enumerate the events favorable to an argument, omitting the other side; and to argue hastily from effect to cause, this last error being the one most often fathered on to statistics. For all these elementary mistakes in logic, statistics is held responsible.” (Sir Arthur L Bowley, “Elements of Statistics”, 1901)

"Politicians use statistics in the same way that a drunk uses lamp-posts - for support rather than illumination." (Andrew Lang, [speech] 1910)

"Figures may not lie, but statistics compiled unscientifically and analyzed incompetently are almost sure to be misleading, and when this condition is unnecessarily chronic the so-called statisticians may be called liars." (Edwin B Wilson, "Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society", Vol 18, 1912)

"In earlier times they had no statistics and so they had to fall back on lies. Hence the huge exaggerations of primitive literature, giants, miracles, wonders! It's the size that counts. They did it with lies and we do it with statistics: but it's all the same." (Stephen Leacock, "Model memoirs and other sketches from simple to serious", 1939)

"It has long been recognized by public men of all kinds […] that statistics come under the head of lying, and that no lie is so false or inconclusive as that which is based on statistics." (Hilaire Belloc, "The Silence of the Sea", 1940)

“The enthusiastic use of statistics to prove one side of a case is not open to criticism providing the work is honestly and accurately done, and providing the conclusions are not broader than indicated by the data. This type of work must not be confused with the unfair and dishonest use of both accurate and inaccurate data, which too commonly occurs in business. Dishonest statistical work usually takes the form of: (1) deliberate misinterpretation of data; (2) intentional making of overestimates or underestimates; and (3) biasing results by using partial data, making biased surveys, or using wrong statistical methods.” (John R Riggleman & Ira N Frisbee, “Business Statistics”, 1951)

"Confidence in the omnicompetence of statistical reasoning grows by what it feeds on." (Harry Hopkins, "The Numbers Game: The Bland Totalitarianism", 1973)

"Fairy tales lie just as much as statistics do, but sometimes you can find a grain of truth in them." (Sergei Lukyanenko, "The Night Watch", 1998)

“Even properly done statistics can’t be trusted. The plethora of available statistical techniques and analyses grants researchers an enormous amount of freedom when analyzing their data, and it is trivially easy to ‘torture the data until it confesses’.” (Alex Reinhart, “Statistics Done Wrong: The Woefully Complete Guide”, 2015)

06 January 2019

Looking into the Crystal Ball of Statistics

“The aim of every science is foresight. For the laws of established observation of phenomena are generally employed to foresee their succession. All men, however little advanced make true predictions, which are always based on the same principle, the knowledge of the future from the past.” (Auguste Compte, "Plan des travaux scientifiques nécessaires pour réorganiser la société", 1822) 

“No matter how solidly founded a prediction may appear to us, we are never absolutely sure that experiment will not contradict it, if we undertake to verify it . […] It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all.” (Henri Poincaré, “The Foundations of Science”, 1913)

“[…] the statistical prediction of the future from the past cannot be generally valid, because whatever is future to any given past, is in tum past for some future. That is, whoever continually revises his judgment of the probability of a statistical generalization by its successively observed verifications and failures, cannot fail to make more successful predictions than if he should disregard the past in his anticipation of the future. This might be called the ‘Principle of statistical accumulation’.” (Clarence I Lewis, “Mind and the World-Order: Outline of a Theory of Knowledge”, 1929)

“The only useful function of a statistician is to make predictions, and thus to provide a basis for action.” (William E Deming)

“To say that observations of the past are certain, whereas predictions are merely probable, is not the ultimate answer to the question of induction; it is only a sort of intermediate answer, which is incomplete unless a theory of probability is developed that explains what we should mean by ‘probable’ and on what ground we can assert probabilities.” (Hans Reichenbach, “The Rise of Scientific Philosophy”, 1951)

“It is never possible to predict a physical occurrence with unlimited precision.” (Max Planck, “The Meaning of Causality in Physics”, 1953)

“Predictions, prophecies, and perhaps even guidance - those who suggested this title to me must have hoped for such-even though occasional indulgences in such actions by statisticians has undoubtedly contributed to the characterization of a statistician as a man who draws straight lines from insufficient data to foregone conclusions!” (John W Tukey, “Where do We Go From Here?”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 55, No. 289, 1960)

“Can there be laws of chance? The answer, it would seem should be negative, since chance is in fact defined as the characteristic of the phenomena which follow no law, phenomena whose causes are too complex to permit prediction.” (Félix E Borel, “Probabilities and Life”, 1962)

“All predictions are statistical, but some predictions have such a high probability that one tends to regard them as certain.” (Marshall J Walker, “The Nature of Scientific Thought”, 1963)

“The moment you forecast you know you’re going to be wrong, you just don’t know when and in which direction.” (Edgar R Fiedler, “Across the Board”, 1977)

31 December 2017

On Statistics: Some Historical Definitions (1901-1950)

"[…] statistics is the science of the measurement of the social organism, regarded as a whole, in all its manifestations." (Sir Arthur L Bowley, "Elements of Statistics", 1901)

"Statistics may rightly be called the science of averages. […] Great numbers and the averages resulting from them, such as we always obtain in measuring social phenomena, have great inertia. […] It is this constancy of great numbers that makes statistical measurement possible. It is to great numbers that statistical measurement chiefly applies." (Sir Arthur L Bowley, "Elements of Statistics", 1901)


"Statistics may, for instance, be called the science of counting. Counting appears at first sight to be a very simple operation, which any one can perform or which can be done automatically; but, as a matter of fact, when we come to large numbers, e.g., the population of the United Kingdom, counting is by no means easy, or within the power of an individual; limits of time and place alone prevent it being so carried out, and in no way can absolute accuracy be obtained when the numbers surpass certain limits." (Sir Arthur L Bowley, "Elements of Statistics", 1901)

"[...] statistics is the science that, through calculation, leads to an understanding of the characteristics of human societies, and its purpose is the study of masses through the enumeration of the units that compose them." (Armand Julin, "Summary for a Course of Statistics, General and Applied, 1910)

"The science of Statistics is the method of judging collective, natural or social phenomenon from the results obtained from the analysis or enumeration or collection of estimates." (Willford I King, "The Elements of Statistical Method", 1912)

"By Statistics we mean aggregate of facts affected to a marked extent by multiplicity of factors [...] and placed in relation to each other." (Horace Secrist, "An Introduction to Statistical Methods", 1917)

"Statistics may be defined as numerical statements of facts by means of which large aggregates are analyzed, the relations of individual units to their groups are ascertained, comparisons are made between groups, and continuous records are maintained for comparative purposes." (Melvin T Copeland. "Statistical Methods" [in: Harvard Business Studies, Vol. III, Ed. by Melvin T Copeland, 1917])

"Statistics may be regarded as (i) the study of populations, (ii) as the study of variation, and (iii) as the study of methods of the reduction of data." (Sir Ronald A Fisher, "Statistical Methods for Research Worker", 1925)

"Statistics is a scientific discipline concerned with collection, analysis, and interpretation of data obtained from observation or experiment. The subject has a coherent structure based on the theory of Probability and includes many different procedures which contribute to research and development throughout the whole of Science and Technology." (Egon Pearson, 1936)

"[Statistics] is both a science and an art. It is a science in that its methods are basically systematic and have general application; and an art in that their successful application depends to a considerable degree on the skill and special experience of the statistician, and on his knowledge of the field of application, e.g. economics." (Leonard H C Tippett, "Statistics", 1943)

"Statistics is the branch of scientific method which deals with the data obtained by counting or measuring the properties of populations of natural phenomena. In this definition 'natural phenomena' includes all the happenings of the external world, whether human or not " (Sir Maurice G Kendall, "Advanced Theory of Statistics", Vol. 1, 1943)

"To some people, statistics is ‘quartered pies, cute little battleships and tapering rows of sturdy soldiers in diversified uniforms’. To others, it is columns and columns of numerical facts. Many regard it as a branch of economics. The beginning student of the subject considers it to be largely mathematics." (The Editors, "Statistics, The Physical Sciences and Engineering", The American Statistician, Vol. 2, No. 4, 1948) [Link]

Further definitions:
1800-1900
1951-2000
2001- …

28 December 2017

Statistics – Some Historical Definitions (1800-1900)

“Il y a, dans la statistique, deux choses qui se trouvent continuellement mélangées, und methode et une science. On emploie la statistique comme methode, toutes les fois que l’on compte on que l’on mesure quelque chose, par example, l’éndendue d’un district, le mobre de habitants d’un pays, la quantité ou le prix de certaines denrées, etc. […] Il y a, de plus, une science de la statistique. Elle consiste à savoir réunir les chiffres, les combiner et les calculer, de la manière la plus propre à conduire à des résultats certains. Mais ceci n’est, à propement parler qu’une branche de mathémetiques.“ (Alphonse P de Candolle, “Considérations sur le statistique des délits” 1833)

“There are two aspects of statistics that are continually mixed, the method and the science. Statistics are used as a method, whenever we measure something, for example, the size of a district, the number of inhabitants of a country, the quantity or price of certain commodities, etc. […] There is, moreover, a science of statistics. It consists of knowing how to gather numbers, combine them and calculate them, in the best way to lead to certain results. But this is, strictly speaking, a branch of mathematics." (Alphonse P de Candolle, “Considerations on Crime Statistics”, 1833)

"[statistics is] that department of political science which is concerned in collecting and arranging facts illustrative of the condition and resources of the state. To reason upon such facts and to draw conclusions from them is not within the province of statistics; but is the business of the statesman and of the political economist." (Penny Cyclopedia, 1842)

“Statistics has then for its object that of presenting a faithful representation of a state at a determined epoch.” (Adolphe Quetelet, 1849) 

"Observations and statistics agree in being quantities grouped about a Mean; they differ, in that the Mean of observations is real, of statistics is fictitious. The mean of observations is a cause, as it were the source from which diverging errors emanate. The mean of statistics is a description, a representative quantity put for a whole group, the best representative of the group, that quantity which, if we must in practice put one quantity for many, minimizes the error unavoidably attending such practice. Thus measurements by the reduction of which we ascertain a real time, number, distance are observations. Returns of prices, exports and imports, legitimate and illegitimate marriages or births and so forth, the averages of which constitute the premises of practical reasoning, are statistics. In short, observations are different copies of one original; statistics are different originals affording one ‘generic portrait’. Different measurements of the same man are observations; but measurements of different men, grouped round l’homme moyen, are prima facie at least statistics." (Francis Y Edgeworth, 1885) 

“[Statistics] are the only tools by which an opening can be cut through the formidable thicket of difficulties that bars the path of those who pursue the Science of man.” (Sir Francis Galton, “Natural Inheritance”, 1889)

Further definitions:
1901-1950
1951-2000
2001- …
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