On Heuristics: Trial and Error in Technology

"Every detection of what is false directs us towards what is true: every trial exhausts some tempting form of error. Not only so; but scarcely any attempt is entirely a failure; scarcely any theory, the result of steady thought, is altogether false; no tempting form of error is without some latent charm derived from truth." (William Whewell, "Lectures on the History of Moral Philosophy in England", 1852)

"It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something." (Franklin D Roosevelt, Address at Oglethorpe University, 1932)

"[...] human problem solving, from the most blundering to the most insightful, involves nothing more than varying mixtures of trial and error and selectivity."  (Herbert A Simon, "The Sciences of the Artificial". 1969)

"Whatever humans have learned had to be learned as a consequence only of trial and error experience. Humans have learned only through mistakes." (R Buckminster Fuller, "Intuition", 1983)

"The idea that no one really knew how to run a government led to the idea that we should arrange a system by which new ideas could be developed, tried out, and tossed out if necessary, with more new ideas brought in - a trial and error system." (Richard P Feynman, "What Do You Care What Other People Think". Book by Richard P. Feynman, 1988)

"Reinventing the wheel and getting it wrong is more valuable than nailing it first time. There are lessons learned from trial and error that have an emotional component to them that reading a technical book alone just cannot deliver!" (Jason P Sage, [in Kevlin Henney’s "97 Things Every Programmer Should Know", 2010])

"Technology is the result of antifragility, exploited by risk-takers in the form of tinkering and trial and error, with nerd-driven design confined to the backstage." (Nassim N Taleb, "Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder", 2012)

"Another crowning achievement of deep learning is its extension to the domain of reinforcement learning. In the context of reinforcement learning, an autonomous agent must learn to perform a task by trial and error, without any guidance from the human operator." (Ian Goodfellow et al, "Deep Learning", 2015)

On Knowledge (1960-1969)

"Any pattern of activity in a network, regarded as consistent by some observer, is a system, Certain groups of observers, who share a common body of knowledge, and subscribe to a particular discipline, like 'physics' or 'biology' (in terms of which they pose hypotheses about the network), will pick out substantially the same systems. On the other hand, observers belonging to different groups will not agree about the activity which is a system." (Gordon Pask, "The Natural History of Networks", 1960)

"The most important maxim for data analysis to heed, and one which many statisticians seem to have shunned is this: ‘Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than an exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise.’ Data analysis must progress by approximate answers, at best, since its knowledge of what the problem really is will at best be approximate." (John W Tukey, "The Future of Data Analysis", Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 33, No. 1, 1962)

"Incomplete knowledge must be considered as perfectly normal in probability theory; we might even say that, if we knew all the circumstances of a phenomenon, there would be no place for probability, and we would know the outcome with certainty." (Félix E Borel, Probability and Certainty", 1963)

"When a science approaches the frontiers of its knowledge, it seeks refuge in allegory or in analogy." (Erwin Chargaff, "Essays on Nucleic Acids", 1963)

"In its efforts to learn as much as possible about nature, modem physics has found that certain things can never be ‘known’ with certainty. Much of our knowledge must always remain uncertain. The most we can know is in terms of probabilities." (Richard P Feynman, "The Feynman Lectures on Physics", 1964)

"A model is a useful (and often indispensable) framework on which to organize our knowledge about a phenomenon. […] It must not be overlooked that the quantitative consequences of any model can be no more reliable than the a priori agreement between the assumptions of the model and the known facts about the real phenomenon. When the model is known to diverge significantly from the facts, it is self-deceiving to claim quantitative usefulness for it by appeal to agreement between a prediction of the model and observation." (John R Philip, 1966)

"It is a commonplace of modern technology that there is a high measure of certainty that problems have solutions before there is knowledge of how they are to be solved." (John K Galbraith, "The New Industrial State", 1967)

"The aim of science is not so much to search for truth, or even truths, as to classify our knowledge and to establish relations between observable phenomena in order to be able to predict the future in a certain measure and to explain the sequence of phenomena in relation to ourselves." (Pierre L du Noüy, "Between Knowing and Believing", 1967)

"It [knowledge] is clearly related to information, which we can now measure; and an economist especially is tempted to regard knowledge as a kind of capital structure, corresponding to information as an income flow. Knowledge, that is to say, is some kind of improbable structure or stock made up essentially of patterns - that is, improbable arrangements, and the more improbable the arrangements, we might suppose, the more knowledge there is." (Kenneth E Boulding, "Beyond Economics: Essays on Society", 1968)

"Knowing reality means constructing systems of transformations that correspond, more or less adequately, to reality. They are more or less isomorphic to transformations of reality. The transformational structures of which knowledge consists are not copies of the transformations in reality; they are simply possible isomorphic models among which experience can enable us to choose. Knowledge, then, is a system of transformations that become progressively adequate." (Jean Piaget, "Genetic Epistemology", 1968)

"Scientific knowledge is not created solely by the piecemeal mining of discrete facts by uniformly accurate and reliable individual scientific investigations. The process of criticism and evaluation, of analysis and synthesis, are essential to the whole system. It is impossible for each one of us to be continually aware of all that is going on around us, so that we can immediately decide the significance of every new paper that is published. The job of making such judgments must therefore be delegated to the best and wisest among us, who speak, not with their own personal voices, but on behalf of the whole community of Science. […] It is impossible for the consensus - public knowledge - to be voiced at all, unless it is channeled through the minds of selected persons, and restated in their words for all to hear." (John M Ziman, "Public Knowledge: An Essay Concerning the Social Dimension of Science", 1968)

"The idea of knowledge as an improbable structure is still a good place to start. Knowledge, however, has a dimension which goes beyond that of mere information or improbability. This is a dimension of significance which is very hard to reduce to quantitative form. Two knowledge structures might be equally improbable but one might be much more significant than the other." (Kenneth E Boulding, "Beyond Economics: Essays on Society", 1968)

"Discovery always carries an honorific connotation. It is the stamp of approval on a finding of lasting value. Many laws and theories have come and gone in the history of science, but they are not spoken of as discoveries. […] Theories are especially precarious, as this century profoundly testifies. World views can and do often change. Despite these difficulties, it is still true that to count as a discovery a finding must be of at least relatively permanent value, as shown by its inclusion in the generally accepted body of scientific knowledge." (Richard J. Blackwell, "Discovery in the Physical Sciences", 1969)

"It is not enough to observe, experiment, theorize, calculate and communicate; we must also argue, criticize, debate, expound, summarize, and otherwise transform the information that we have obtained individually into reliable, well established, public knowledge." (John M Ziman, "Information, Communication, Knowledge", Nature Vol. 224 (5217), 1969)

"Models constitute a framework or a skeleton and the flesh and blood will have to be added by a lot of common sense and knowledge of details."(Jan Tinbergen, "The Use of Models: Experience," 1969)

"The 'flow of information' through human communication channels is enormous. So far no theory exists, to our knowledge, which attributes any sort of unambiguous measure to this 'flow'." (Anatol Rapoport, "Modern Systems Research for the Behavioral Scientist", 1969)

On Structure: Structure in Mathematics I

"The first step, whenever a practical problem is set before a mathematician, is to form the mathematical hypothesis. It is neither needful nor practical that we should take account of the details of the structure as it will exist. We have to reason about a skeleton diagram in which bearings are reduced to points, pieces to lines, etc. and [in] which it is supposed that certain relations between motions are absolutely constrained, irrespective of forces." (Charles S Peirce, "Report on Live Loads", cca. 1895)

"For thought raised on specialization the most potent objection to the possibility of a universal organizational science is precisely its universality. Is it ever possible that the same laws be applicable to the combination of astronomic worlds and those of biological cells, of living people and the waves of the ether, of scientific ideas and quanta of energy? [...] Mathematics provide a resolute and irrefutable answer: yes, it is undoubtedly possible, for such is indeed the case. Two and two homogenous separate elements amount to four such elements, be they astronomic systems or mental images, electrons or workers; numerical structures are indifferent to any element, there is no place here for specificity." (Alexander Bogdanov, "Tektology: The Universal Organizational Science" Vol. I, 1913)

"Once a statement is cast into mathematical form it may be manipulated in accordance with [mathematical] rules and every configuration of the symbols will represent facts in harmony with and dependent on those contained in the original statement. Now this comes very close to what we conceive the action of the brain structures to be in performing intellectual acts with the symbols of ordinary language. In a sense, therefore, the mathematician has been able to perfect a device through which a part of the labor of logical thought is carried on outside the central nervous system with only that supervision which is requisite to manipulate the symbols in accordance with the rules." (Horatio B Williams, "Mathematics and the Biological Sciences", Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society Vol. 38, 1927)

"Physics is the attempt at the conceptual construction of a model of the real world and its lawful structure." (Albert Einstein, [letter to Moritz Schlick] 1931)

"Today's scientists have substituted mathematics for experiments, and they wander off through equation after equation, and eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality." (Nikola Tesla, "Radio Power Will Revolutionize the World", Modern Mechanics and Inventions, 1934)

"Men of science belong to two different types - the logical and the intuitive. Science owes its progress to both forms of minds. Mathematics, although a purely logical structure, nevertheless makes use of intuition. " (Alexis Carrel, "Man the Unknown", 1935)

"Statistics is a scientific discipline concerned with collection, analysis, and interpretation of data obtained from observation or experiment. The subject has a coherent structure based on the theory of Probability and includes many different procedures which contribute to research and development throughout the whole of Science and Technology." (Egon Pearson, 1936)

On Technology III

"Technology means the systematic application of scientific or other organized knowledge to practical tasks." (John K Galbraith, "The New Industrial State", 1967)

"Networks constitute the new social morphology of our societies, and the diffusion of networking logic substantially modifies the operation and outcomes in processes of production, experience, power, and culture. While the networking form of social organization has existed in other times and spaces, the new information technology paradigm provides the material basis for its pervasive expansion throughout the entire social structure." (Manuel Castells, "The Rise of the Network Society", 1996)

"Beauty is more important in computing than anywhere else in technology because software is so complicated. Beauty is the ultimate defense against complexity." (David Gelernter, "Machine Beauty: Elegance And The Heart Of Technolog", 1998)

"Modelling techniques on powerful computers allow us to simulate the behaviour of complex systems without having to understand them.  We can do with technology what we cannot do with science.  […] The rise of powerful technology is not an unconditional blessing.  We have  to deal with what we do not understand, and that demands new  ways of thinking." (Paul Cilliers,"Complexity and Postmodernism: Understanding Complex Systems", 1998)

"A primary reason that evolution - of life-forms or technology - speeds up is that it builds on its own increasing order." (Ray Kurzweil, "The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence", 1999) 

"As systems became more varied and more complex, we find that no single methodology suffices to deal with them. This is particularly true of what may be called information intelligent systems - systems which form the core of modern technology. To conceive, design, analyze and use such systems we frequently have to employ the totality of tools that are available. Among such tools are the techniques centered on fuzzy logic, neurocomputing, evolutionary computing, probabilistic computing and related methodologies. It is this conclusion that formed the genesis of the concept of soft computing." (Lotfi A Zadeh, "The Birth and Evolution of Fuzzy Logic: A personal perspective", 1999)

"We do not learn much from looking at a model - we learn more from building the model and manipulating it. Just as one needs to use or observe the use of a hammer in order to really understand its function, similarly, models have to be used before they will give up their secrets. In this sense, they have the quality of a technology - the power of the model only becomes apparent in the context of its use." (Margaret Morrison & Mary S Morgan, "Models as mediating instruments", 1999)

"Periods of rapid change and high exponential growth do not, typically, last long. A new equilibrium with a new dominant technology and/or competitor is likely to be established before long. Periods of punctuation are therefore exciting and exhibit unusual uncertainty. The payoff from establishing a dominant position in this short time is therefore extraordinarily high. Dominance is more likely to come from skill in marketing and positioning than from superior technology itself." (Richar Koch, "The Power Laws", 2000)

"Mythology and science both extend the scope of human beings. Like science and technology, mythology, as we shall see, is not about opting out of this world, but about enabling us to live more intensely within it." (Karen Armstrong, "A Short History Of Myth", 2004)

"In an age when technology is integrating us more tightly together and delivering tremendous flows of innovation, knowledge, connectivity and commerce, the future belongs to those who build webs not walls, who can integrate not separate, to get the most out of these flows." (Thomas L Friedman, The New York Times, 2016)

On Technology II

"The 'message' of any medium or technology is the change of scale or pace or pattern that it introduces into human affairs." (Marshall McLuhan, "Understanding Media", 1964)

"Our technology forces us to live mythically, but we continue to think fragmentarily, and on single, separate planes." (Marshall McLuhan, "The Medium is the Massage: An inventory of effects", 1967)

"Modern scientific principle has been drawn from the investigation of natural laws, technology has developed from the experience of doing, and the two have been combined by means of mathematical system to form what we call engineering." (George S Emmerson, "Engineering Education: A Social History", 1973)

"The system of nature, of which man is a part, tends to be self-balancing, self-adjusting, self-cleansing. Not so with technology." (Ernst F Schumacher, "Small is Beautiful", 1973)

"Technology has not advanced because people are starved for instruments to make a better civilization, but because they are starved for entertainment - technology is still mostly a toy factory for grown-ups." (Eugene J Martin, 1977-1978)

"People’s views of the world, of themselves, of their own capabilities, and of the tasks that they are asked to perform, or topics they are asked to learn, depend heavily on the conceptualizations that they bring to the task. In interacting with the environment, with others, and with the artifacts of technology, people form internal, mental models of themselves and of the things with which they are interacting. These models provide predictive and explanatory power for understanding the interaction." (Donald A Norman, "Some observations on Mental Models", 1983)

"With the changes in technological complexity, especially in information technology, the leadership task has changed. Leadership in a networked organization is a fundamentally different thing from leadership in a traditional hierarchy." (Edgar Schein, "Organizational Culture and Leadership", 1985)

"The new information technologies can be seen to drive societies toward increasingly dynamic high-energy regions further and further from thermodynamical equilibrium, characterized by decreasing specific entropy and increasingly dense free-energy flows, accessed and processed by more and more complex social, economic, and political structures." (Ervin László, "Information Technology and Social Change: An Evolutionary Systems Analysis", Behavioral Science 37, 1992) 

"Now that knowledge is taking the place of capital as the driving force in organizations worldwide, it is all too easy to confuse data with knowledge and information technology with information." (Peter Drucker, "Managing in a Time of Great Change", 1995)

"Commonly, the threats to strategy are seen to emanate from outside a company because of changes in technology or the behavior of competitors. Although external changes can be the problem, the greater threat to strategy often comes from within. A sound strategy is undermined by a misguided view of competition, by organizational failures, and, especially, by the desire to grow." (Michael E Porter, "What is Strategy?", Harvard Business Review, 1996)

On Technology I

"Unlike art, science is genuinely progressive. Achievement in the fields of research and technology is cumulative; each generation begins at the point where its predecessor left off." (Aldous Huxley, "Science, Liberty and Peace", 1946)

"Doing engineering is practicing the art of the organized forcing of technological change." (George Spencer-Brown, Electronics, Vol. 32 (47),  1959)

"Science is the reduction of the bewildering diversity of unique events to manageable uniformity within one of a number of symbol systems, and technology is the art of using these symbol systems so as to control and organize unique events. Scientific observation is always a viewing of things through the refracting medium of a symbol system, and technological praxis is always handling of things in ways that some symbol system has dictated. Education in science and technology is essentially education on the symbol level." (Aldous L Huxley, "Essay", Daedalus, 1962)

"Engineering is the art of skillful approximation; the practice of gamesmanship in the highest form. In the end it is a method broad enough to tame the unknown, a means of combing disciplined judgment with intuition, courage with responsibility, and scientific competence within the practical aspects of time, of cost, and of talent. This is the exciting view of modern-day engineering that a vigorous profession can insist be the theme for education and training of its youth. It is an outlook that generates its strength and its grandeur not in the discovery of facts but in their application; not in receiving, but in giving. It is an outlook that requires many tools of science and the ability to manipulate them intelligently In the end, it is a welding of theory and practice to build an early, strong, and useful result. Except as a valuable discipline of the mind, a formal education in technology is sterile until it is applied." (Ronald B Smith, "Professional Responsibility of Engineering", Mechanical Engineering Vol. 86 (1), 1964)

"It is a commonplace of modern technology that there is a high measure of certainty that problems have solutions before there is knowledge of how they are to be solved." (John K Galbraith, "The New Industrial State", 1967)

"Technological invention and innovation are the business of engineering. They are embodied in engineering change." (Daniel V DeSimone & Hardy Cross, "Education for Innovation", 1968)

"The future masters of technology will have to be lighthearted and intelligent. The machine easily masters the grim and the dumb." (Marshall McLuhan, "Counterblast", 1969)

"It follows from this that man's most urgent and pre-emptive need is maximally to utilize cybernetic science and computer technology within a general systems framework, to build a meta-systemic reality which is now only dimly envisaged. Intelligent and purposeful application of rapidly developing telecommunications and teleprocessing technology should make possible a degree of worldwide value consensus heretofore unrealizable." (Richard F Ericson, "Visions of Cybernetic Organizations", 1972)

"The march of science and technology does not imply growing intellectual complexity in the lives of most people. It often means the opposite." (Thomas Sowell, "Knowledge And Decisions", 1980)

"A chipped pebble is almost part of the hand it never leaves. A thrown spear declares a sort of independence the moment it is released. [...] The whole trend in technology has been to devise machines that are less and less under direct control and more and more seem to have the beginning of a will of their own." (Isaac Asimov, "Past, Present, and Future", 1987)

On Technology IV

"If you think technology can solve your security problems, then you don't understand the problems and you don't understand the technology." (Bruce Schneier, "Secrets and Lies: Digital Security in a Networked World", 2000)

"Ultimately, progress in applications is not deterministic, but opportunistic, exploiting for new applications whatever new science and technology happen to be coming along." (Herbert Kroemer, "Quasi-Electric Fields and Band Offsets: Teaching Electrons New Tricks", [Nobel Lecture], 2000)

"Technology can relieve the symptoms of a problem without affecting the underlying causes. Faith in technology as the ultimate solution to all problems can thus divert our attention from the most fundamental problem - the problem of growth in a finite system - and prevent us from taking effective action to solve it." (Donella H Meadows & Dennis L Meadows, "The Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update", 2004)

"Although the Singularity has many faces, its most important implication is this: our technology will match and then vastly exceed the refinement and suppleness of what we regard as the best of human traits."  (Ray Kurzweil, "The Singularity is Near", 2005)

"The Singularity will represent the culmination of the merger of our biological thinking and existence with our technology, resulting in a world that is still human but that transcends our biological roots. There will be no distinction, post-Singularity, between human and machine or between physical and virtual reality. If you wonder what will remain unequivocally human in such a world, it’s simply this quality: ours is the species that inherently seeks to extend its physical and mental reach beyond current limitations." (Ray Kurzweil, "The Singularity is Near", 2005)

"Chance is just as real as causation; both are modes of becoming.  The way to model a random process is to enrich the mathematical theory of probability with a model of a random mechanism. In the sciences, probabilities are never made up or 'elicited' by observing the choices people make, or the bets they are willing to place.  The reason is that, in science and technology, interpreted probability exactifies objective chance, not gut feeling or intuition. No randomness, no probability." (Mario Bunge, "Chasing Reality: Strife over Realism", 2006)

"Synergy occurs when organizational parts interact to produce a joint effect that is greater than the sum of the parts acting alone. As a result the organization may attain a special advantage with respect to cost, market power, technology, or employee." (Richard L Daft, "The Leadership Experience" 4th Ed., 2008)

"What’s next for technology and design? A lot less thinking about technology for technology’s sake, and a lot more thinking about design. Art humanizes technology and makes it understandable. Design is needed to make sense of information overload. It is why art and design will rise in importance during this century as we try to make sense of all the possibilities that digital technology now affords." (John Maeda, "Why Apple Leads the Way in Design", 2010) 

"Today, technology has lowered the barrier for others to share their opinion about what we should be focusing on. It is not just information overload; it is opinion overload." (Greg McKeown, "Essentialism: The Disciplined Pursuit of Less", 2014)

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled." (Richard Feynman)

Information Overload III

"Every person seems to have a limited capacity to assimilate information, and if it is presented to him too rapidly and without adequate repetition, this capacity will be exceeded and communication will break down." (R Duncan Luce, "Developments in Mathematical Psychology", 1960)

"People today are in danger of drowning in information; but, because they have been taught that information is useful, they are more willing to drown than they need be. If they could handle information, they would not have to drown at all." (Idries Shah, "Reflections", 1968)

"Everyone spoke of an information overload, but what there was in fact was a non-information overload." (Richard S Wurman, "What-If, Could-Be", 1976)

"The greater the uncertainty, the greater the amount of decision making and information processing. It is hypothesized that organizations have limited capacities to process information and adopt different organizing modes to deal with task uncertainty. Therefore, variations in organizing modes are actually variations in the capacity of organizations to process information and make decisions about events which cannot be anticipated in advance." (John K Galbraith, "Organization Design", 1977)

"We are drowning in information but starved for knowledge." (John Naisbitt, "Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives", 1982)

"In the Information Age, the first step to sanity is FILTERING. Filter the information: extract for knowledge. Filter first for substance. Filter second for significance. […] Filter third for reliability. […] Filter fourth for completeness." (Marc Stiegler, "David’s Sling", 1988)

"It has become evident time and again that when events become too complex and move too rapidly as appears to be the case today, human beings become demonstrably less able to cope." (Alan Greenspan, "The Structure of the International Financial System", 1998)

"Specialization, once a maneuver methodically to collect information, now is a manifestation of information overloads. The role of information has changed. Once justified as a means of comprehending the world, it now generates a conflicting and contradictory, fleeting and fragmentation field of disconnected and undigested data." (Stelarc, From Psycho-Body to Cyber-Systems: Images as Post-human Entities, 1998)

"Our needs going forward will be best served by how we make use of not just this data but all data. We live in an era of Big Data. The world has seen an explosion of information in the past decades, so much so that people and institutions now struggle to keep pace. In fact, one of the reasons for the attachment to the simplicity of our indicators may be an inverse reaction to the sheer and bewildering volume of information most of us are bombarded by on a daily basis. […] The lesson for a world of Big Data is that in an environment with excessive information, people may gravitate toward answers that simplify reality rather than embrace the sheer complexity of it." (Zachary Karabell, "The Leading Indicators: A short history of the numbers that rule our world", 2014)

"Today, technology has lowered the barrier for others to share their opinion about what we should be focusing on. It is not just information overload; it is opinion overload." (Greg McKeown, "Essentialism: The Disciplined Pursuit of Less", 2014)